Here they Come Again!

[tw]

East coast US is (from some news services) being hyped into fear of Sandy. Mostly displaced.

History. 51 years ago, a March Nor'ester stalled off New Jersey's coast. Most Nor'esters and hurricanes go flying past. But in 1962, a high pressure system near Greenland caused that Nor'ester to stall for three days (five high tides) off the DE and NJ coasts. The resultant tidal surge on barrier islands was extensive - well over 10 feet.

This is not a powerful hurricane - barely category one. But it is large and is predicted to stall at the same location as in 1962. Therefore resulting tidal swell may be about 6 feet. Not a problem to any facility or location that did responsible construction.

But Sandy will dump heavy rain for days. Barrier islands have sewers that cannot slope sufficiently. So barrier islands have pumping stations. Water drops maybe into 12 foot deep wells. Then pumped out. Those pumps are not sufficient for long heavy rains. So flooded streets will be routine.

No problem. Any responsible homeowner already decided to visit distant friends. The resulting floods will not destroy any decent building. Any responsible auto owner left town.

Inland is another problem. Leaves are still on trees. One year ago, this same week, a snow storm caused these problem. Heavy rain and wind from any serious storm means trees take out power lines. Isolated outages because America still puts electric wires overhead on poles. So some will be without power for days; maybe a week. No problem except where news hypes this as the end of the world.

The problem is not a hurricane. The problem is heavy rain and normal wind for any serious storm that continues for days. So a responsible homeowner takes the usual precautions.

For example, one gallon containers are now in the freezer. As each freezes, it is moved to the refrigerator while a few more freeze. Then by Monday, maybe six plus gallons of frozen water remain frozen in the refrigerator. That means frozen and refrigerated foods remain cold for days. Usual precautions for any major storm.

Don't let hype create fear. If on barrier islands, then take a vacation. Have some working flashlights and sufficient gas in the car. Have some cash. If near streams or rivers that usually flood, then move stuff away. If in a home that usually floods, then expect to have what you bought the house to enjoy. Isolated problems will exist. You know from past storms what to expect (ie residents of the Delaware River).

Ocean wave heights are 30 feet in category two and three hurricanes. Curiously, this only category one storm is creating 27 feet waves. That is probably due to the size of this just barely category one storm. So significant beach erosion is expected. Damage will be mostly where buildings should never have been constructed. Or where beach is significantly missing due to rock walls on the beach or (and just as bad) lining inlets.

Possible that it could become worse. A storm isolated off the Jersey coast will drive water up the Delaware, Raritan, and Hudson Rivers. Maybe causing flooding where flooding does not normally happen. Potentially made worse by a full moon. Caution applies.

[BigV]

Originally Posted by tw

East coast US is (from some news services) being hyped into fear of Sandy. Mostly displaced.

--snip

typo/droll lol.

[tw]

Local gossip has subverted all other TV. Even the network news is not available. So Sandy has landed in Cape May after 1800 hours on Monday at the most southern county in New Jersey. A news reporter stands on a hotel balcony adjacent to the ocean in Cape May. Big waves. Street flooding. Nothing hazardous. What anyone would expect from a barely category one hurricane. Only 50 MPH winds. If it was hazardous, those hotel windows would be blowing in. Something that most people should evacuate for. But only a typical bad storm.

A trivial category one. How many category fours and fives have struck Tiawan, Japan, Korea, Phillippines, and China this year?

Below radar map shows rain. Almost no rain north of the hurricane (Atlantic City - ACY to New York) as the hurrican makes landfall. The data buoy adjacent to the remains of this hurricane never saw waves higher than 20 feet. Most concern is rain that precedes this hurricane.

[tw]

The storm should have only required advisories. Not the 'end of the world' hype that also occurs with heavier snow storms. So, where is the flooding?

Black dots indicate locations that are at flood stage. Most black dot are in locations where heavy construction makes flooding routine. The local gossip routinely goes to the same bridge in Darby Twp that always floods. Demonstrating how desperate they are for pictures to support their hype.

As Sandy made landfall, two maps (for New Jersey and Pennsylvania) demonstrate the usual flooding regions that become a concern. Black is flood stage. Blue is high but not yet flooding. Green is a half full river. Red is low flow.

Most flooding is in and around Philadelphia as demonstrated by that earlier posted radar (rainfall) map:

[glatt]

You sound disappointed. I'll be very pleased if this storm wimps out.

[xoxoxoBruce]

No he's pleased as punch it didn't live up to a week's worth of hype.
Glatt, the Philly NBC, ABC, CBS, and FOX, stations have had nothing but storm coverage. I mean nothing, as tw mentioned, not even national network news.

[Cyber Wolf]

Turns out the triviality of this storm totally depended on where you were. In the NoVA suburbs of DC, lots of 'meh' and 'well that was interesting!' and some flooding, downed trees and power outages, not unlike the aftermath of a rough batch of summer thunderstorms.

In downtown and midtown NY, Apocalyptic. No other words.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Cyber Wolf

Turns out the triviality of this storm totally depended on where you were. In the NoVA suburbs of DC, lots of 'meh' and 'well that was interesting!' and some flooding, downed trees and power outages, not unlike the aftermath of a rough batch of summer thunderstorms.

The Derecho of 2012 was far far worse for NoVA than this hurricane was.

[Clodfobble]

But not as bad as a nova would be for NoVA.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Cyber Wolf

In downtown and midtown NY, Apocalyptic.

Midtown is fine. Downtown - evacuated part of Manhatttan - is suffering.

Damage is also greater in other places where people refused to evacuate. Staten lsland alone may account for half of all deaths. Because people ignored informed advise. Converting what should only have been flooding into maybe 40 deaths. (Philly local gossip never reported this.)

[Trilby]

yeah, but there's always some nut cases who don't evacuate no matter WHAT. It's encoded in their DNA or something. If people are told to evacuate and they don't I say let Darwin deal with the fallout.

[glatt]

But what if they already had kids? Darwin ain't gonna help us then.

[Trilby]

Originally Posted by glatt

But what if they already had kids? Darwin ain't gonna help us then.

They keep their kiddies with them. Nobody evacuates, nowhere, notime.

haven't you seen the pics of the kids riding earth-movers to get away from the flood waters? The kiddies will drown right with mama like God intended.

[Cyber Wolf]

Originally Posted by glatt

The Derecho of 2012 was far far worse for NoVA than this hurricane was.

Yeah but we were in its rather large bulls-eye. We weren't for this one, we got a glancing blow on the weaker side of the system. That's what I'm saying, the seriousness of the impact totally depends on where you were.

[Cyber Wolf]

Originally Posted by tw

Midtown is fine. Downtown - evacuated part of Manhatttan - is suffering.

Damage is also greater in other places where people refused to evacuate. Staten lsland alone may account for half of all deaths. Because people ignored informed advise. Converting what should only have been flooding into maybe 40 deaths. (Philly local gossip never reported this.)

Downtown then. They still got boned whether or not there were people there when it hit. Even if there were 0 people in NY and immediate environs when the thing hit, the public and private property damage was horrendous.