Here they Come Again!
 

Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon
Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine
Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William

Hurricane season started 1 Jun. Four tropical storms have occurred. Debby is landing on the Gulf coast.

Rarely do any form this early in the season. Ironically the National Hurricane center is predicting a normal hurricane season of 9 to 15 tropical storms. 4 to 8 being hurricanes. And 1 to 3 being a major hurricane

Hiding out in the Rockies (Colorado) is Dr Gray. He predicts slightly less activity. 13 tropical storms. 5 hurricanes. 2 major hurricanes.

It's the little things that make you human, tw. I love your hurricane obsession, no joking.

Debby is apparently churning slowly off the coast but causing tornadoes already. Could be an interesting storm if it picks up speed and makes landfall in SW Florida.

Consider the weather we've had the past 9 months. In general, all the seasons and seasonal markers (first snow, last frost, etc) have come 3-6 weeks early for just about every part of the country. Here in the mideast swamp, we didn't have much of a winter, spring temperatures and weather patterns were showing up in early February, our first 90+ degree day of the year was also in February, tree pollen came out early and there were tropical systems showing up as much as 10 days before the historical start. So I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with an unremarkable (in terms of stats) hurricane season this year... it's just that instead of June 1 to Nov 1, it'd be more like May 20 to... what... middle of October? If this early pattern continues, I'll be surprised if a storm forms in October at all.

Wouldn't it be cool if there was a hurricane Spock?

I would be really easy to predict too, since it would only follow the most logical path.;)

A few days ago, it had only a 20% chance of becoming a named storm. It is now called Ernesto. If it follows the track of previous weather, then it should pass south of Cuba and land somewhere in the center Gulf of Mexico. Maybe by Tuesday.

Gulf has achieved water temperatures approaching 85 degrees F (30 degrees C). With even warmer water in the center. Once that 20% storm got into the warmest water in the Atlantic, it became a tropical storm. We should expect it to become a hurricane in the even warmer Gulf. Most probable target may be Mexico or south since prevailing winds have been southbound. However that could easily change by next week.

Now would be a good time to start stocking for this year's hurricane party.

It would be even more interesting if it veers further West and Debby Does Dallas.

If Ernesto does Dallas, then extremists will preach the evils of being gay. Any excuse to promote a political agenda.

Ernesto is now predicted to enter the Gulf as expected. But another tropical storm has formed before even getting half way across the Atlantic. Before even getting into warmer water. Florence has a slightly more northern track that could threaten the east coast USA. Or maybe it just takes a right turn and heads for the Olympics. Making it in time for the closing ceremonies.

I believe Katrina was only a tropical depression when it was in that same area.

It was a tropical storm - downgraded to a tropical depression.

As of course you should well know...:right:

It's as if there's a political agenda with a man waggling from it. Koyaanisqatsi, baby.

Hiya UG. Long time, no see.

I consider your assessment of tw's balance a highly informed one.

As so many previous hurricanes also did. It is in a colder water region. Therefore woud not remain a tropical storm. What it can become will not be apparent until it moves back into warmer water. We will know this weekend.

Ernesto took the southern path. The Yucatan Pennisula will rip it apart.