Hamas founder killed

[Beestie]

First factor you're missing is popular support.

True. We had popular support. Lots of it. Until we actually went after the perpetrators - then it dried up faster than dew in the desert.

Confronting our enemies is never something that will garner popular support (I assume you mean global support and not support within our borders). However, I still agree with Bush that we need to take the fight to them instead of waiting for them to hit us again. The best defense is still a good offense, imho.

But, having said that and in the interest of clarifying my position, I do not include the Iraq invasion as related to Sep 11, Al Queda or the war on terrorism (although I did at first - call me a sucker).

So, what's the answer? Who the hell knows? All we can do is fight to protect ourselves. I will stick to my guns that we need to be offensive and not defensive. While Al Queda may act like it has nothing to lose and will fight to the death for ever and ever, history has shown that this strategy will not last. If we continue to track them down and kill them, sooner or later they will give up.

Just take the latest backtrack from Hamas. Yesterday, it was "Death to America!" Well, not 24 hours later, it looks like they are backtracking on that position:

Hamas Says It Will Target Sharon, Not U.S.

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - The new Hamas leader in Gaza said on Wednesday the group had no plans to attack American targets, pulling back from retaliatory threats by the group's armed wing after Israel's assassination of the Hamas founder....

Here's a link to the whole story. But I get the feeling that all the ass-kicking we've done lately led them to reconsider. Had we responded to our lack of popular support by cowering in the corner begging for mercy, I dare say there would be a different outcome.

Bottom line for me: if its war they want, its war they'll get (Al Queda or whoever). But it will be war on our terms and on their turf. And yes, we are prepared to bleed if necessary. History has borne that out, too.

[jaguar]

I was talking about the popular support for OBL and the movement as a whole. I'm not entirely sure how you missed that. You think hamas has backed down? They just they're smarter not to take on the US. They've been fighting a guerilla war, and been killed by the hundreds for going on 20 years now and they don't look like slowing down do they. If anything sway of extremist groups in the gaza strip and west bank and only grown and grown, I wonder why.

You didn't get the hydra thing did you? You can't kill them all. For every one you kill you create 2, if not 10 and 20 more people who will support these movements financially and politically.

[vsp]

Originally posted by jaguar
You didn't get the hydra thing did you? You can't kill them all. For every one you kill you create 2, if not 10 and 20 more people who will support these movements financially and politically.

Which neatly summarizes why the "War On Terra" is doomed to failure. It's not a declaration of war against a country, a government or even an organization, but against a CONCEPT, and a concept that's inherently self-perpetuating.

[Happy Monkey]

It's not inherently self-perpetuating. It requires fuel, and that fuel is blood and poverty, both of which are created by war.

[Beestie]

Originally posted by vsp
Which neatly summarizes why the "War On Terra" is doomed to failure. It's not a declaration of war against a country, a government or even an organization, but against a CONCEPT, and a concept that's inherently self-perpetuating.

Its not a war against a concept, its a war just like any other war. The only difference is that its not a country we are fighting but a decentralized group with a farm system.

This endless dignifying and mystification of Al Queda is nauseating. They are religious zealots (the actual fighters) led by shrewd politicians. Unlike a hydra which has no heirarchy, if Al Queda is decapitated a sufficient number of times, the drones will settle down. Without a spiritual leader, they will not perpetuate. Unlike the Palestinian conflict where the people waging it are affected by their relationship to Isreal every day, the Al Queada fighters are motivated only by the hate instilled in them by their leaders.

I would say Al Queada is less like a hydra and more like a decentralized bee hive. Kill the queens and the bees will scatter and return to the hills from whence they came. They will still hate the U.S. but will lack the infrastructure and means to do anything about it.

I do not agree that the war on terror is doomed to failure. To concede that in advance is absurd. If anything is doomed to failure, its Al Queada's war on us.

---
edited to correct spelling error. content unchanged.

[Undertoad]

It's not abject poverty, but Arabic failure in comparison to the rest of the world that really has them irate. Iraq is actually an attempt to address that, but we can't say so up front which is why everyone is confused as to the "real reason" for the war:

http://denbeste.nu/essays/strategic_overview.shtml

In short, the only way to truly stop the production of more hydra heads is to create a successful Democracy in the center of the Arabic world. First step is to remove the big huge Stalinist impediment to their success. Check. It's still not a bad plan if it works and may well be the solution with the least amount of blood spilled.

The problem is what happens if it fails, and we can't really tell whether it's failing because it takes time (took several YEARS in the case of post-WW2 Germany) and we're not getting enough information on that.

[vsp]

Of course, the War On Terror[tm] != war on Al-Qaeda. If the two were equivalent, we wouldn't be in Iraq now.

Eliminating Al-Qaeda (or at least wiping out enough of Al-Qaeda to severely marginalize its ability to strike back) is possible. Eliminating the sentiments and beliefs that spawn groups like Al-Qaeda is another matter entirely (and likely to be a futile one.)

[Troubleshooter]

Originally posted by Undertoad

http://denbeste.nu/essays/strategic_overview.shtml

I think that this is the most central part of that whole paper:

"None of this has anything to do with historical Arab culture at its height, which was rich, powerful, and very impressive. It produced great literature and poetry, great science, and amazing architecture. It adopted and regularized place-value numbering, developed arithmetic and invented algebra. But that all largely ended several hundred years ago. All of the discussion above refers to the current culture of the region, and the people living there now."

It's a religion in it's twilight in a world that is eventually going to see its demise.

[jaguar]

I wish christianity would go the same way. Argueably it is, except in backwards places like rural vietnam and capitol hill.

[Troubleshooter]

Originally posted by jaguar
I wish christianity would go the same way. Argueably it is, except in backwards places like rural vietnam and capitol hill.

Unfortunately, the numbers I've seen show an increase in the professing of religious beliefs.

On the other side there appears to be an increase of people professing no faith as well.

Things are polarizing.

Get the guns and the food pills ready...

[jaguar]

As far as I'm aware most of Europe has been in decline for a fair while. Not really sure on the US.

Reminds me of an old joke. A guy goes to Northern Ireland for a holiday. Goes into a pub in a seedy part of town one night. He's sipping on a pint at the bar when suddenly he feels the cold sensation of a gun barrel on the back of his neck:

He hears the guy say: Catholic or Protestant? He has no idea what part of town he's in so no idea what the 'correct' answer is. After a second's thinking:
Buddhist.

[Troubleshooter]

Originally posted by jaguar
As far as I'm aware most of Europe has been in decline for a fair while. Not really sure on the US.

Europe will still be in decline long after America has passed it up on the downhill side. Europe has had much more experience in the sociocultural arena and America can't do anyting at a medium pace.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally posted by Troubleshooter
It's a religion in it's twilight in a world that is eventually going to see its demise.

Actually, I suspect it is currently at the point that Christianity was in in the Dark Ages - rigid, violent theocracy. Hopefully it will mellow eventually, but I doubt it's about to collapse.

[jaguar]

I'm all for that. Islam needs to like, smoke a big fat doobie.

[wolf]

Originally posted by jaguar

He hears the guy say: Catholic or Protestant? He has no idea what part of town he's in so no idea what the 'correct' answer is. After a second's thinking:
Buddhist.

And so he got shot anyway for being a fooking heathen?