Libya, Will Gaddafi prevail?

[ZenGum]

Mostly I am thinking: what the #$%& have we just gotten ourselves into?

I say "we" because although Australia is not sending forces (err ... yet ...) we're allies and this will have global consequences.

The mission creep has been spectacular. We've gone from a no-fly zone, through air strikes on tanks and mobile artillery pieces, to "Gaddafi's got to go", in barely three days.

The conflict on the ground could go three ways: Gaddafi wins, stalemate or rebels win.

Suppose Gaddafi is winning despite the air strikes. How close support are we willing to provide? A-10s? Helicopter Gunships? Advisors?

Suppose they fight to a stalemate, the rebels holding some cities, G-man holding others. How long do we maintain this protection? It was over a decade in Iraq. How much will that cost, in lives, money and goodwill?

Suppose the rebels win. I hope they behave themselves when they take the capital, but after a regime like Gaddafi's, the end will come with payback. Then what?

What of the rest of the Arab world? Does this tell the other Arab leaders that mass force will bring international reprisals? Will other Arab people's movements expect similar help? Or will Gaddafi win the propaganda battle and convince the middle-east that the west is seeking to recolonise them?

There are so many ways that this could go wrong, and relatively small payoff even if it goes well, that it seems to me our leaders have decided with their hearts as much as their heads. The situation was urgent and time was short and we have acted. That is not always a bad thing.
Now that we're in, we should press this home as effectively as we can and try to end it and leave. I am not hopeful that this will be as soon as we would like. Interesting times.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

There are so many ways that this could go wrong, and relatively small payoff even if it goes well, that it seems to me our leaders have decided with their hearts as much as their heads. The situation was urgent and time was short and we have acted. That is not always a bad thing..

The biggest difference I see between this and our previous two wars is the tone the UN and US, mainly US, are using to justify action. In Afghanistan and Iraq our action was meant to free those people with a fairy tale ending. In Libya, I have not seen any of that.

There are multiple goals with Libya but the main one seems to be just making sure Gadaffi isn't allowed to commit genocide on his own people. It isn't to free anyone or create this new democratic government but preventing something from happening. The main drawbacks from this are that Libya can descend into a bloody civil war and the stated goal can still be accomplished and we will never know if we made the situation better or worse.

Attacking Libya also draws a line in the sand. We are not obligated to help other protest movements but it might prevent other dictatorships from killing their own people like Gadaffi because they know no consequences will come to them.


As long as the UN and US stick to their stated goals I don't think this will inevitably turn into a bad situation but there are a lot of slippery slopes which we can fall down.