Libya, Will Gaddafi prevail?

[ZenGum]

I hate it, but that's about what I came here to say, too.

I read years ago the point that revolutions only succeed if a large proportion of the security forces - army, police, etc - will support it, or at least refuse to fight it, as happened in Egypt. KQGadddafffi has enough loyal troops, plus foreign mercenaries, to do the job.

Option A: Suppose we (the rest of the world) impose a no-fly zone. Then what? Gadafi still has tanks, artillery, logistics, and crucially command and control structures, troops that have trained to act together. The rebels have toyotas with machine guns on them, belief in their cause, and knowledge that they will get no mercy if they surrender or are defeated. This isn't even a fair fight. A no fly zone would merely slow the inevitable.

Option B - A no-fly zone, plus air strikes on the Libyan army. Done heavily enough, it would equalise the terms of combat, and maybe scare a lot of the mercs into going home. Then what? A protracted civil war? Whoopee. Add to that the collateral damage our airstrikes would do, the propaganda card this would hand gadafi, the friendly fire losses... Gadafi has the logistics and command structures to win, and as TW points out, the terrrain isn't too suitable for guerilla tactics.

Option C: Full scale intervention with air and ground forces. See option B, with more casualties. Replay Iraq at best, Afghanistan or Somalia at worst. Hands up who wants to do that? Now check your wallet. Still keen?

I'm tring to come up with an option D. We buy off Gadafi's mercenaries - having choked off G's supllies of cash, give money to the rebels, they can buy the Merc's services. It has happened before. Meanwhile, seditious propaganda among the regular Libyan military encourages them to defect, and discretely supplied weapons help the rebels hold their own on the battlefield.
I don't see it working. Gadafi has a Stalinesque grip on his army. The mercs are good for dirty work like killing civilians, but not that important in battle. And all this would take time, which the rebels don't have.


What really pisses me off is that this will break the momentum of the Arab revolt, which can only be sustained by popular belief that they will win. All the other Middle-eastern tyrants must be secretly very pleased by Gadafi's victories, so I expect tehy will oppose any foreign 'meddling'. The message is getting through - try a revolution, you get massacred.

Welcome to another decade or two of repression.

Fuck it, I hope I'm wrong.

[plthijinx]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

Fuck it, I hope I'm wrong.

i respect you. you know this. now this.....libya needs to be taught a lesson that it forgot over 10 years ago. 2 percent of the oil? fuck em. go in and rape their ass. and at the same time why not drill more here? not gonna happen, why? because too many people think that we should not tap our recourses. hmmf. 5 dollar a gallon gas prices are in the near future. they already are in avgas.