Toyota stop sale

[classicman]

Honda Motor Co. is adding 437,000 vehicles to its 15-month-old global recall for faulty air bags in the latest quality problem to hit a Japanese automaker.

The company will replace the driver's side air bag inflator in the cars because they can deploy with too much pressure, causing the inflator to rupture and injure or kill the driver.

Japan's No. 2 automaker originally announced the recall to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in November 2008 and the total of number vehicles recalled since then is approaching 1 million.

The latest expansion of the air bag recall includes 378,000 cars in the U.S., some 41,000 cars in Canada and 17,000 cars in Japan, Australia and elsewhere in Asia. The North American recall was announced Tuesday and followed Wednesday by the recall in Asia.

The recall now affects 952,118 vehicles, including certain 2001 and 2002 Accord sedans, Civic compacts, Odyssey minivans, CR-V small sport utility vehicles and some 2002 Acura TL sedans.

Honda said it is aware of 12 incidents linked to the problem -- one death in May 2009 and 11 injuries. The company said it is not aware of any problems happening after July 2009.

Link

[tw]

New technology is to replace mechanical controls with electronics. Now understand the problem. Every digital logic circuit is logic One when above a certain voltage. And logic Zero when below. Between those two levels is an undefined reason (because everything in the world is ternary). So that noise does not cause confusion, any signal in 'no man's land' means logic stays at its old value. Then noise does not cause failure.

Well, sort of. All noise is statistical. Therefore all noise will eventually cross that 'no man's land' threshold. We calculate the probability. So that your PC is reliable, that noise threshold might be achieved once every (maybe) 1000 or 10,000 years. No problem for you. A major problem for Toyota with so many millions of cars.

Described earlier is one method to avert disaster - see watchdog timer discussed earlier. And a problem. There really is no way to test for proper implementation of that watchdog timer. Quality (as taught by W E Deming) says quality must occur at the design level. That means top management must implement, enforce, and understand how that can be accomplished OR if it is being accomplished.

Mechanical designers did not have to be so careful. Now that brakes, accelerator pedals, windows, power steering, etc are all partially or fully electronically controlled, then software interfacing with hardware means everything Deming taught is even more important. Means that understanding even that above statistical fact is essential to reliable design.

How does one test for a failure that happen almost never - such as the throttle pedal? That is what every automaker has confronted. Every automaker has suffered the same problems in other variations before Toyota. But this time the problem was bigger news - probably because one event was so newsworthy.

Ford's problem with Firestone (now Bridgestone - they changed the name so that you would forget how many they killed) was so trivial and obvious compared to Toyota's. Ford eventually discovered Firestone knew they were killing people, lied about fixing the tires, and then denied the problem existed. In that case the problem and its solution was trivial simple.

Well, Toyota's problem has a similar story line. Toyota knew the problem (and some others) existed. But top management stayed in denial mode. We are now seeing new Toyota management trying to deal with a problem that existed maybe in 2003. And have only been at trying to eliminate it (and other problems such as the Prius braking software) for a year.

Trying to identify the transistor among millions that might be too susceptible to statistical noise failure when it only happens to a few of millions of vehicles. And the failure leaves no electrical history of the failure. Toyota has a major challenge. If I understand the problem from details in so many stories, I believe the accelerator pedal will not be (or may be only one minor) reason for failure. Appreciate why bad management means a statistically rare problem can make the solution almost impossible to find. And why missions (such as Apollo) did not have such problems because management understood what the engineers were saying. Therefore could avert problems before death resulted (ie Apollo 13).

Engineering and management techniques once good enough for mechanical brakes or Bridgestone tires is no longer sufficient in today's world of Deming quality, six Sigma, millions of transistors in each car (every car currently has about 50 motors), and world wide news.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Excellent explanation, tw. I knew you had it in ya.

[lumberjim]

http://www.toyota.com/recall/

did they ever figure out what went wrong?

[classicman]

Nope - they are probably too worried about the Corolla's power steering issues and another possible recall.
Link

[lookout123]

everybody who has ever had a problem with a Toyota raise your hand.

I'll wait.

[TheMercenary]

No problems here. We are on our third in this family. Granted my dau's first one did get wrecked with 6k on it and now she has 2010, but still. My truck is three years old, not a single issue. Not even a rattle.

[Pico and ME]

*hand raised*

...but it was kinda my fault. I let the tank go to nearly empty too many times and clogged the fuel filter inside it, which caused a problem somehow and it wouldn't drive. Had to get a whole new something-or-other which cost $500 or so. This was way back in the 80's when I was driving the '76 Corona. Back then, the Jap cars didnt get a lot of respect, though.

[Pie]

Pico, I think the statute of limitation's run out on that one.

If I were going to buy a car right now, I would give serious consideration to a Toyota. Some pretty good deals out there, I bet.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Pie

If I were going to buy a car right now, I would give serious consideration to a Toyota. Some pretty good deals out there, I bet.

Take it one step farther. As great and stable companies, Toyota and Honda have long been poor investments. They have been too stable. At best, you would only meet the S&P or Dow Jones averages.

View Toyota stock sales during the recall notices. The spike is massive. Paniced investors were selling.

So when is the best time to buy? You must determine at what point all the bad news is out. For example, the accelerator pedal may cost $70 per vehicles to replace. That is a $billion write off that has not yet appeared on spread sheets (because spread sheets report events long after it really happens).

Dealers may be desperate to make the sale. But I doubt it. Right now, they are fully employed by Toyota just upgrading existing new and already sold models. And the supply was cut off on some models as it took tiime to manufacturer new pedals.

But investment possibliities are good. Too many invest on silly emotion rather than appreciate the real value of that company. Maybe 10% or 20% are so pathetically foolish as to react to the news. That is a buying opportunity.

However the buying opportunity is so obvious as to not be as profitable as it might be. Those are the judgements that only you can put numbers to.

[tw]

Written by The Economist (10 Dec 2009) about five months after Akio Toyoda took control of Toyota.

Mr Toyoda had been reading “How the Mighty Fall”, a book by Jim Collins, an American management guru. In it, Mr Collins describes the five stages through which a proud and thriving company passes on its way to becoming a basket-case. First comes hubris born of success; second, the undisciplined pursuit of more; third, denial of risk and peril; fourth, grasping for salvation; and last, capitulation to irrelevance or death.

But Mr Toyoda claimed that the book described his own company’s position. Toyota, he reckoned, had already passed through the first three stages of corporate decline and had reached the critical fourth. According to Mr Collins, fourth-stage companies that react frantically to their plight in the belief that salvation lies in revolutionary change usually only hasten their demise. Instead they need calmness, focus and deliberate action.

Is Toyota really in such dire straits? And if it is, can a company that for decades has been the yardstick for manufacturing excellence turn itself around in time?

[lumberjim]

meanwhile, in the batcave.......

[classicman]

Stewart Stogel, 49, of Mount Vernon, N.Y., said his 2009 Camry accelerated to about 15 mph on a street near his home on Saturday, five days after a dealership trimmed the gas pedal and installed new brake override software as part of the floor mat recall. The car didn't stop for several seconds even though he pressed on the brakes. Stogel said he barely avoided going down an embankment and hitting a wall.

"At first the brakes didn't engage at all," said Stogel, a freelance journalist. "Just as I approached Terrace Avenue, the wheels were able to get some traction, and all of the sudden the engine did disengage."

Stogel said the car had accelerated two previous times, and both times Stogel said he took it to dealerships to be checked. In one case it was inspected by a Toyota corporate technician who could find nothing wrong, he said.

After the latest incident, Stogel called his dealer, who told him to return with the car. He also left a message with Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. President Jim Lentz. On Tuesday, Stogel's dealer called and asked him to return with the Camry so Toyota engineers can inspect it.

Carolyn Kimbrell, 59, a retired office assistant in Whitesville, Ky., said her 2006 Toyota Avalon accelerated last weekend as she pulled up to her mailbox near her home — about a week after the car had been fixed. Kimbrell had just returned from a shopping trip to the mall with her 9-year-old granddaughter.

Kimbrell's car dealer on Feb. 20 inserted a small piece of metal into the gas pedal mechanism to eliminate friction that was causing the pedal problems. The dealer is scheduled to provide a separate fix to prevent the accelerator pedal from becoming trapped in the floor mat. But now Kimbrell said she wonders if the company's fix will solve the problem.

"It just scares you," Kimbrell said. "If I had been trying to stop at a busy intersection, that would have been bad."

Toyota on Tuesday said its U.S. sales fell 9 percent in February but it would offer repeat buyers two years of free maintenance to help rebuild customer loyalty.

Link

[xoxoxoBruce]

After the latest incident, Stogel called his dealer, who told him to return with the car. He also left a message with Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. President Jim Lentz. On Tuesday, Stogel's dealer called and asked him to return with the Camry so Toyota engineers can inspect it.

I should think the dealer would flatbed it in, so they could check it before it changed, unless he drove home before calling them?

[xoxoxoBruce]

Toyota simulator.