Does Anyone feel like Bailing

Originally Posted by tw

We know due to economic mismanagement in the 2000s (ie tax cuts for the rich, Enron accounting without any prosecution, etc) that we created a 2008 meltdown. History says massive jobs losses will occur in 2012. That is inevitable due to money games played and encouraged throughout the 2000s.

The 2000s were a lost decade, but some, particularly the critics, obviously chose to ignore that.

Many economists see job growth returning by this summer, but that still wont address the long-term need to retool and restructure the economy on a much larger scale.

Repeating myself (from my link on the lost decade):

Most of the recovery money has yet to be spent (by intent) and is directed towards retooling the economy by focusing on developing new energy technologies, a national broadband network, wide spread infrastructure improvement, investments in health technology, investments in education...all critical if you're interest is looking forward to be better positioned to compete in a global economy in which we may have lost the competitive edge that we enjoyed for decades.

I still havent heard a better approach from the critics here...they just keep on bailing out.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Redux

I still havent heard a better approach from the critics here...they just keep on bailing out.

I would love to believe the stimulus has cured everything. But I am not that naive that any stimulus could. This recession current appears in patches. Among some groups - no significant adverse effect and no job losses. Among others - massive adverse effects.

For example, a construction machine company owner told me he could not sell his Case backhoe - only give it away. The recession has been that destructive to his business.

In another company - a wholesaler - business is down. But not enough to lay anyone off. Even a few restaurants say they have seen less business - but not enough to reduce staff.

Too many contradictory numbers confirm what history suggest. The massive job losses should occur years from now.

Meanwhile, it is possible that Bernanke's solution has been more successful than expected. Economics data does not and cannot predict. The next five years will be an economist's dream - an opportunity to (maybe) learn things about economics that nobody has even seen. One fact we do know. No two recessions pan out the same.

Originally Posted by tw

I would love to believe the stimulus has cured everything. But I am not that naive that any stimulus could. This recession current appears in patches. Among some groups - no significant adverse effect and no job losses. Among others - massive adverse effects.

For example, a construction machine company owner told me he could not sell his Case backhoe - only give it away. The recession has been that destructive to his business.

In another company - a wholesaler - business is down. But not enough to lay anyone off. Even a few restaurants say they have seen less business - but not enough to reduce staff.

Too many contradictory numbers confirm what history suggest. The massive job losses should occur years from now.

Meanwhile, it is possible that Bernanke's solution has been more successful than expected. Economics data does not and cannot predict. The next five years will be an economist's dream - an opportunity to (maybe) learn things about economics that nobody has even seen. One fact we do know. No two recessions pan out the same.

I'm not suggesting the stimulus plan cured anything, but simply helped keep the economy from further collapse, particularly the state/local stabilization funds. I talk to local officials all the time and the adverse impact w/o those funds would have been significantly worse.

Jobs in many sectors will never come back, which is why I think the bulk of the unspent stimulus funds committed to a national broadband network, developing new energy technologies, wide spread infrastructure improvement, health technology and other high tech investments, education and job re-training, etc. are a step in the right direction.

And I cant say I have firm grasp on Bernanke's monetary policy, but i do think it helped keep the flow of credit from drying up, particularly to consumers and small business....but then again, the level of irresponsible personal (consumer) debt is unsustainable and another meltdown waiting to happen.

I'm under no illusion....we're in deep shit after wasting years built on the promises of an economic plan based on tax cuts that would lead to economic prosperity for all, at a cost of more than $1 trillion, no job creation and the stagnation of middle-class real income.

It will be a long, slow haul and those opposed will politicize it every step of the way w/o offering a better way forward.

added:
Thanks for your insight. You always offer something to consider.

[glatt]

Just got off the phone with my wife. We had some CDs that matured, so she went down to the bank to see what they were offering. The rates on the new CDs are a joke. But that's not why I'm posting this. The thing that struck me was that she said they pushed very hard to get us to borrow money. They wanted to give us a line of credit on our house. We didn't even ask, nor do we want one.

I thought the banks stopped throwing money at people. Isn't that what got us into this mess?

[Pete Zicato]

Originally Posted by glatt

Isn't that what got us into this mess?

Pushing loans on people who were not qualified to repay them got us into this mess. I'm sure you're qualified to repay.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Pete Zicato

Pushing loans on people who were not qualified to repay them got us into this mess. I'm sure you're qualified to repay.

I'm actually not, which is why I don't want one. I think they probably figure anyone who doesn't want a loan is showing responsibility, and is therefor a good risk. But being responsible AND having that nice income is what they should be looking for.

[TheMercenary]

Maybe they are going to really start to get pushy on enticing people to take out loans based on known credit scores or payment history. We get offers in the mail to refinace our house at least once per week. There is no way in hell I would take out such a loan at this point.

[xoxoxoBruce]

[TheMercenary]

[classicman]

Originally Posted by Redux

We can quibble on the numbers, but there is no doubt that it helped save or create hundreds of thousands of jobs.

How many? Lets ask three members of the administration. . .

White House advisers appearing on the Sunday talk shows gave three different estimates of how many jobs could be credited to President Obama’s Recovery Act.

Valerie Jarrett had the most conservative count, saying “the Recovery Act saved thousands and thousands of jobs,” while David Axelrod gave the bill the most credit, saying it has “created more than – or saved more than 2 million jobs.” Press Secretary Robert Gibbs came in between them, saying the plan had “saved or created 1.5 million jobs.”

Their remarks in context:

Axelrod, on CNN’s State of the Union: “But understand that, in this recession that began at the beginning of 2007, we've lost 7 million jobs. Now, the Recovery Act the president passed has created more than — or saved more than 2 million jobs. But against 7 million, you know, that — that is — it is cold comfort to those who still are looking.”

Jarrett, on NBC’s Meet the Press: “The Recovery Act saved thousands and thousands of jobs. There are schoolteachers and firemen and— and— teachers all across our country, policemen, who have jobs today because of that recovery act. We're investing in infrastructure. We're investing in public education so that our kids can compete going forth into the next— generation.”

Gibbs, on “Fox News Sunday”: “Well, Chris, let's take for instance the example you just used of the stimulus package. We had four quarters of economic regression in terms of growth, right? Just last quarter, we finally saw the first positive economic job growth in more than a year. Largely as a result of the recovery plan that's put money back into our economy, that saved or created 1.5 million jobs.”

Link

Originally Posted by Redux

IMO, government action was necessary and is still needed.
Most of the recovery money has yet to be spent (by intent) and is directed towards retooling the economy by focusing on developing new energy technologies, a national broadband network, wide spread infrastructure improvement, investments in health technology, investments in education...

I agree that action was and now still is needed, but it should have addressed actually creating jobs first. As you said the first phase of this money was NOT directed at that. I believe that is where it should have been.

[ZenGum]

Originally Posted by glatt

Just got off the phone with my wife. We had some CDs that matured, so she went down to the bank to see what they were offering. The rates on the new CDs are a joke.

Whatever you do, I suggest you consider something that is not in US$. With the debt, that might well depreciate over the next half decade or so. Just a thought.

[Pico and ME]

Bruce that video is GREAT!!! Im already there...our money is in local banks.

[TheMercenary]

So what happens to all these supposed new jobs created by the pork barrel stimulus package when that money is no longer being supplied by the government?

[xoxoxoBruce]

Hopefully, the private sector will be picking up by then.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Hopefully, the private sector will be picking up by then.

Pretty big hope there. The record on the Government artifically propping up the economy is dismal. But boy it sure makes the socialists feel better about how many fake jobs have been created!