North Korea fires missles

[Kaliayev]

North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.

Its a well set pattern: the DPRK wants something. Talks are stalled, or no-one is paying attention, because, like Britain's Got Talent is nearing the season finale.

So North Korea fires a missile over Japan. Suddenly, everyone goes "WTF?", even though South Korean and Japanese sources knew this was months in the planning. Or they test a nuke and cause some rumbling in Seoul.

The UNSC convenes, and decides to slap on some punishments to the DPRK, and restart the Six Nations talks. In the course of the talks, eventually, the North Korean greivance du jour becomes obvious (usually its frozen assets. They can usually lean on China for fuel and food, since China does not want a collapsed state on its border). Agreements are made, conditions are set.

Conditions are broken, or promises are not kept. Talks break down. North Korea bides its time, and then decides to do something "crazy" again. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes. If one of them went off, it knows its existence, as a regime, is forfeit, since it could be easily traced back to them. Since so far, North Korea has been playing a very careful game of upping the stakes, this would be quite out of character for them. They know they can bluster and threaten, but as soon as a nuke goes off, China, Japan and the USA will be looking to scalp them. Which is why they stick to their bluffing in the furtherance of more concrete goals.

The main worry is that a missile will land where it is not supposed to, ie; on Japan instead of the sea on the other side. Given they're not exactly working with high technology here its a real risk. Equally, their nuclear weapons designs came from Pakistan, and one thing I do know about the Pakistani arsenal is that the detonation systems were never secured in the way most other nuclear arsenals are. Since North Korean defectors are usually political and not scientific, we don't know if they have secured the weapons properly or not. I would hope the paranoid nature of the regime would have meant this had happened, but its by no means a given. Since a power struggle is coming in a few years, between Kim's more westernized son and the military's generals, THAT is something to look out for.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Kaliayev

North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.

Usually I would agree with this but this situation isn't as clear cut. North Korea will appear weak to the world until a new successor for Kim Jong-Il takes control so the test could be a front to discourage any possible actions against the country during the transition. Also, NK's first nuclear test was not nearly as strong as was expected so this could show not only the world, but the NK population, that the administration is still strong even with Kim Jong-Il being replaced soon.

Originally Posted by kaliayev

Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes.

Yes, in my opinion NK would have to be suicidal to sell nukes but they could use this event to advertise other weapons such as ballistic missiles.

[Perry Winkle]

If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Perry Winkle

If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?

That would give North Korea and Iran too much power. NK and Iran would actually have more incentive to create more nuclear weapons since they know they will get a lot of money from it and then NK and Iran would also have influence over our decisions.

Another reason is that we want to have power over NK and Iran. Once those countries get nuclear weapons, they will instantly become regional powers and the United States won't mess with them.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Once those countries get nuclear weapons, they will instantly become regional powers and the United States won't mess with them.

Its really too late for that. Thoughts need to now focus on how to deal with them WHEN, not if...

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

Its really too late for that. Thoughts need to now focus on how to deal with them WHEN, not if...

You give them too much credit. NK has numerous problems. Apparently their fissile material is low grade. Their experiment was not anywhere near as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb. And that means any bomb is also too large for deployment.

They launched a missile. To the naive and to those who always see enemies hiding everywhere, which means those missiles can be nuclear tipped. Nonsense. Facts say otherwise.

N Korea also does not have enough fissile material to market the stuff. Their nuclear program is for image - as if weapons alone make one powerful. Extremist military leaders worry about image. Implies military leaders, so worried about appearing weak, are in control. Did you not learn anything from Saddam and his WMDs?

UT cites a serious problem. The world's only hope is that they are rational actors. So the important question remains - who really is in charge?

[xoxoxoBruce]

They haven't been rational for the last 60 years, so I doubt they are now.