The New Bailout

Originally Posted by classicman

redux, Who was polled, what was their political affiliation and how were the questions phrased. What was the number of people sampled? What geographic region? Was it a nationwide poll or local from a specific district or state. There are a million questions about how and who was polled that make the info presented useless without the supporting answers.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,018 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 6-7, 2009, as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Other results are based on telephone interviews with 1,012 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 4, 2009. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. (this sentence is a standard disclaimer generally used by most pollsters in the event that is the poll is used in some fucked up manner beyond its intent)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/114202/Ob...lus-Fight.aspx

Gallup, like all reputable national polling organizations, uses widely accepted statistical techniques for the sample to be representative of age, income, region, political affiliation, etc. then the data is "weighted" to even more accurately represent the total population.

That is why Gallup can they say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Standardized protocols are also used to minimize question bias.

Again, a poll is simply a snapshot of public opinion on a particular issue (s) at a particular point in (or over) time. Its not something you should stake your life on but it is also not something to dismiss as useless or not credible if you are at all interested in what the public may be thinking (in very general terms) about a particular person or issue.

added:
I can say that with a high degree of confidence and Merc can say its bullshit until he finds a poll that he likes.