Bush suddenly an interesting character again

Originally Posted by classicman

Hmm...

I decided to look them up myself -
CONGRESS – Job Rating in national polls

The first column is .......date..app..disapp..unsure...+-

Ipsos/McClatchy...............2/6-9/09 37 59 * -22


CNN/Opinion Research........2/7-8/09 29 71 - -42


CBS.................................2/2-4/09 26 62 12 -36

FOX/Opinion Dynamics.....1/27-28/09 40 46 14 -6

FOX/Opinion Dynamics.....1/13-14/09 23 68 10 -45

NBC/Wall Street Journal....1/9-12/09 23 68 9 -45

USA Today/Gallup 1/9-11/09 19 76 5 -57

I must be looking at different data than you.
CNN/Opinion Research ..2/7-8/09.....29.....71.....-.....-42
CNN/Opinion Research 10/3-5/08.....23.....76.....1.....-53

with approval ratings consistently in the 20's over the last two polls I ail to see how suddenly the ratings are jumping into the 50's and 60's as in your poll by the same organization.

Yep...you are looking at different data.

Merc and I have been through this....polls of Congress as a whole are vastly different and have many more variables than polls of 1-2 individuals or polls of the parties.

Congress' low number as a whole (a body of 545) over the last two years are attributed to many factors:

some democratic voters rated Congress very low for not impeaching Bush, some republicans voters because of all the talk of impeaching Bush and holding so many oversight hearings

some democratic voters rated Congress very low for being rolled over on Iraq funding, some republicans because Democrats tried to block Iraq war funding.

some democratic voters rated Congress very low because of all the Republican filibusters in the Senate, some republican because the republicans didnt filibuster enough

When you are rating a person or a party, you are generally rating an easily identified ideology and voting record. When you rate Congress as a whole, there is no single ideology or voting record.

The polls asking the public (of both parties and indys) to rate Congress by party rather than as a single body are one means of addressing some of these questions....and the term "Congressional leaders" would generally be explained by the pollsters.

Job rating - Democrats in Congress

Job rating - Republicans in Congress

Perhaps you understand the difference.....Merc doesnt.

I wont bet my house on poll numbers but results of a poll or poll trends do represent a reasonably valid snapshot of public opinion at and/or over a defined period of time.

There is a reason why both parties spending $millions on polls...it does provide that snapshot.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Redux

I wont bet my house on poll numbers but results of a poll or poll trends do represent a reasonably valid snapshot of public opinion at and/or over a defined period of time.

False. Most of these polls are determined on the opinions of 1000 people give or take. Now given that at any given time the recent population of the United States is 305 million, what you are saying is that you believe that 0.0000327% speaks for the other 99+% of the total US. That would be false.

Was it a telephone poll? Who did they call? Who took the time to answer the questions? What is the demographics? How do you extrapolate that to 305 million people? You can't. Anyone who studies statistics knows that the poll is the weakest form of statistical measure. Straw Poll = Straw Man.

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

False. Most of these polls are determined on the opinions of 1000 people give or take. Now given that at any given time the recent population of the United States is 305 million, what you are saying is that you believe that 0.0000327% speaks for the other 99+% of the total US. That would be false.

Was it a telephone poll? Who did they call? Who took the time to answer the questions? What is the demographics? How do you extrapolate that to 305 million people? You can't. Anyone who studies statistics knows that the poll is the weakest form of statistical measure. Straw Poll = Straw Man.

Straw polls, like what you may find on many websites, are not scientific polls like those used by polling organizations.

In a straw poll, anyone can participate.

The credible polling organizations use representative samples to predict the larger universe of voters with a relatively small error of margin.

They are widely accepted in politics, economics, sociology, statistics, and any field of research.

Objective observers know the difference.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Redux

They are widely accepted in politics, economics, sociology, statistics, and any field of research.

Objective observers know the difference.

Fail. Widely known as the weakest forms of statistical measure.

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

Fail. Widely known as the weakest forms of statistical measure.

Cite please! From a reputable source!

That polling using random samples to reflect the larger universe, along with including margins of error, and review of questions for bias, have little validity.

Sorry, but you are blowing smoke out of your ass.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Redux

Cite please! From a reputable source!

That polling using random samples to reflect the larger universe, along with including margins of error, and review of questions for bias, have little validity.

Sorry, but you are blowing smoke out of your ass.

Anyone who hangs much validity on polls is the smoke coming out of my ass. So far you have not proven a damm thing.

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

Fail. Widely known as the weakest forms of statistical measure.

Cite please....from a reputable source!

You might start with this publication from the American Statistical Association:

What is a Survey

Today the word "survey" is used most often to describe a method of gathering information from a sample of individuals. This "sample" is usually just a fraction of the population being studied...

In a bona fide survey, the sample is not selected haphazardly or only from persons who volunteer to participate. It is scientifically chosen so that each person in the population will have a measurable chance of selection. This way, the results can be reliably projected from the sample to the larger population...

...When it is realized that a properly selected sample of only 1,000 individuals can reflect various characteristics of the total population, it is easy to appreciate the value of using surveys to make informed decisions in a complex society such as ours. Surveys provide a speedy and economical means of determining facts about our economy and about people's knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, expectations, and behaviors...

http://www.whatisasurvey.info/

National polling organizations like Gallup, Harris, Zogby, etc have the policies and practices in place to ensure that they meet or surpass the accepted standards of reliability....or they would be out of business very quickly.

Polls you see on the Drudge, CNN.com, etc where anyone can click and submit have no standards.

[TGRR]

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

Fail. Widely known as the weakest forms of statistical measure.

Keep on digging. You'll get out of that hole someday.