American Excess

[lookout123]

How much do illegal aliens help our economy? I am not talking about through taxes, but if all the illegals were deported, how much would our economy be realistically affected in all areas?

well that depends. if we just shipped them back to their countries of origin and called it a done deal then that would cause problems. i want someone to pick my oranges dammit.

but if we ship out the illegals and fix the LEGAL immigration system to make it simpler, cheaper, and faster and increase the number allowed LEGALLY then it wouldn't cause long term problems. would there be some wage inflation? yep. would that work itself out? yep. most of the problems would be caused by greedy employers fighting the law like they are doing with our new employer sanctions law in arizona.

As far as corn farms moving to the US - not sure what you are talking about - I grew up in corn country, corn has always been grown there.

[aimeecc]

I believe if illegals were deported, much of our service industry would be hurt. I'm talking maids, lawn care, janitorial staff, cooks, etc. Farmers... well, there are already programs in place for migrant workers to come into the US for a short period of time specifically to help the farmers during peak times.
Did NAFTA take money from Mexico, or just from a few large corporations that owned the corn business and paid their employees squat?

[lookout123]

Again, if the illegals all disappeared tomorrow and were not replaced then yes, those industries would be hurt. But if we increase the number of legal immigrants to fill the jobs then the pain would not be catastrophic. If a company cannot make a profit using legal employees then that company should not be in business - end of story.

[aimeecc]

Why doesn't the US just increase the number of authorized immigrants? Does anyone know the basis for this? They're already here... so why not make them legal (with obviously some scrutiny... don't want felons to stay)? If they become legal, they start paying taxes, can get medical insurance, which in turn takes eases the burden on hospitals, makes more money available for welfare...
I've never understood why we don't have a short amnesty period in which everyone already here can register and start the legal naturalization process. Denying them legal status does not make them go home.

[lookout123]

we tried amnesty in the '80's. it didn't work as now all the illegals here are just waiting for the next go-round. the reason that immigration isn't easily reformed is evident in small scale in arizona right now. Immigration reform has to start with controlling our existing borders better and getting a handle on those that are already here. If they broke the law to get here, and they broke the law to work illegally, then they are by definition criminals. You don't give known criminals legal residency status.

The voters passed a measure that would penalize employers found to knowingly employ illegal immigrants. This isn't a law limiting immigration - it is a law that creates a tangible penalty for breaking an existing law. If the employer is proven to knowingly employ an illegal then the business license is revoked for a minimum of 10 days and all operations have to stop, along with monetary penalties.

Business owners - including a handful of fast food restaurant franchisees immediately sued to stop the law saying it was unfair. Their case was dismissed. They have gone to the press crying "I could lose my business if an illegal slips in and gets hired." Untrue. It is a system of attrition - all new hires must be checked within 72 hours. Their name and social security number is checked against the everify system. If it comes up clean the employer cannot be held responsible for future findings on the employee. If it gets flagged it is up to the employee to provide proof of legal residence or they are terminated. Seems simple enough - but employers are trying to block it.

[piercehawkeye45]

What what else is there besides amnesty?

Deporting them is a very very bad solution no matter what side you stand on this and just leaving them as they are won't help at all. I still have major doubts that illegal immigrants hurt the United States on a large scale because if they did, the borders would have been closed for a while now. No one knows just how much they affect the economy so making a decision without really looking at that would backfire immediately.

There is not going to be a "good" solution for this so we will have to look at the one that will give us the least amount of blowback. And the fact that they are "criminals" shouldn't have much leeway in this, with this many people crossing the borders I really doubt it is a morality issue.

[lookout123]

with this many people crossing the borders I really doubt it is a morality issue.

the "lots of kids do it" argument? i don't think so.

Deporting them is a very very bad solution no matter what side you stand on this

Why?

[busterb]

I still have major doubts that illegal immigrants hurt the United States on a large scale because if they did, the borders would have been closed for a while now.

Do you really think this administration and big business gives a fuck about anything but the buck?

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by lookout123

the "lots of kids do it" argument? i don't think so.

This is not the "lots of kids do it" argument. This is obviously a very tough decision that has been made by a lot of people out of necessity than anything. Not only do many have to move, or at least become separated from family, into another country where you know you are breaking the law and entering into a culture that you will have a very hard time being accepted and prospering into. I don't see how that is a child decision.

First, moving to one place from another is always a very tough decision that very few people do on a limb, and what makes it even harder is to leave one's country and go into another where it is not easy to communicate or live a simple life. It would be like one of us moving to a foreign country that is mainly consisted of people of color, they also hold the higher power jobs as well, that does not speak English but enough it so you can get by and live in your own little groups. Would you ever do that unless you absolutely needed too? To think most of them wouldn't do it unless out of necessity isn't a bad assumption either.

Second, with the number of people coming over, there is obviously something wrong within the system that is encouraging Mexicans and other Latin Americans to come over here illegally. What is the estimate of the number of illegals in the United States? 15 to 20 million? That is about 1/5 to 1/7 the population of Mexico itself. The number coming from Mexico is going to be lower but I don't even know if European immigration in the 1700 and 1800s were that high proportionally.

I have also talked to a large number of immigrants and each of them has repeatably told me that there are no jobs in Mexico and no one is going to leave their families behind to work 10-15 hours a day in shit jobs with shit pay unless it is absolutely necessary.

Whether or not I should break a law that does not involve me hurting anyone to feed my family is not a big moral question. It is a rational choice that these people have been forced to make. They are breaking the law, but it is the system that is in question, not their morality.

Why?

Why is mass deportation a bad idea. Because you have to take in these seven factors.

• How much will this deportation cost?
• How will deportation hurt the economy?
• How will crime be affected by deportation?
• How will communities be affected by deportation?
• How will we keep the illegal aliens out after deporting them?
• Do we want to give the government that kind of power?
• How will be viewed by our own country and the rest of the world?

Right now we have three "wars" that are bottomless pits in terms of money and I want to get rid of all three much less start another one. How much will it cost to deport 15-20 million people that are scattered all across the United States and have blended in with many legal US citizens? How many more employees will we need to hire and how much will we pay them? What is the average cost for deporting one person, much less deporting tens of millions of them? It would be ultimate irony if we decide to deport illegal immigrants because they cost us too much money and the deportation process costs more money than they used up on social services.

Second, I already asked this question knowing that there is no answer for it. How will our economy be affected if we do deport all the illegal immigrants?

Third, how will crime be affected by deportation? I am not looking for some statistic on crime rates because that is irrelevant. Picture this situation. You are an illegal immigrant who has already been accused of being a criminal and breaking the law and are basically being hunted like a dog. You can not go back to Mexico and expect to support yourself and your family and your supply has just been cut off here. There is no place you can go for food and shelter. How are you going to eat and feed your family? The only answer I can think of is crime. If we start mass deporting illegal immigrants, I would expect the crime rates to shoot up astronomically.

Fourth, how will communities be affected? In the south, migrants are a large part of the community and many illegal migrants have blended into those communities. What negative affects will come from deporting the illegals create? How will these communities be viewed the rest of society and most importantly, how will these communities view the rest of society and how will they react to this? How will racial tensions be affected and what will be the effects of those?

Fifth, how will we keep the illegal aliens out once we deport them? We can build a wall, which will bring up questions about money, labor, resources, upkeep, etc. But, are there other ways that illegal immigrants can come back in and how will we fix those?

Sixth, do we want to give the government this kind of power. If we deport millions of immigrants, there will be people that will have to do the deporting. How can we avoid hiring blatant racists that will not only abuse their power but start harassing LEGAL American citizens? How quickly will illegals turn into undesirables? How can we make sure that only illegal citizens will be avoided and what will it take to be able to find the difference?

Seventh, how will we be viewed by the rest of the world and in our country? How will other countries react to this and how will other minorities view this? When talking about racial tensions, racism always comes up so how will overall racial tensions in America and the world be affected? How will blacks, Asians, Arabs, Natives, and whites react to this and how will our society be affected by these reactions?


If we are going to do some sort of deportation, not only the seven big questions I asked, but all the smaller ones, will HAVE to be answered to avoid blowback much bigger than what we are dealing with right now.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by busterb

Do you really think this administration and big business gives a fuck about anything but the buck?

That is what I meant by hurt our country on a large scale. Besides crime, which comes from poverty, all the arguments are either "they are criminals" or they waste too much money.

If we were losing money as a whole, the borders would have been closed a long time ago.

[lookout123]

Second, with the number of people coming over, there is obviously something wrong within the system that is encouraging Mexicans and other Latin Americans to come over here illegally.

Wait, other than the fact that they keep coming here illegally - why is the problem in their country my concern. If anything it should be their concern and they should stay there to fix it.

Complete deportation isn't going to happen. Attrition can happen. Strong border enforcement, employer sanctions, stiffer penalty for being caught here illegally will make the US less attractive for potential border jumpers. Those that are already here illegally didn't cross the border once to stay forever more - they cross the border to see their families quite frequently. Stronger Border enforcement will prevent them from coming back. Stiff employer sanctions will prevent them from getting jobs illegally - many will look elsewhere for work - they came here for the money in the first place remember? Stiffer penalties for being caught are necessary because little to nothing happens now. It is a no risk crime.

As far as the blowback that you are concerned about, I think it is overblown when put in the context of attrition rather than instantaneous deportation. Maybe, just maybe these people will decide to do something about the problems in their own countries rather than come here.

I see illegals every single day with my own eyes. I live with them all around me. That's life in the southwest.

[lookout123]

If we were losing money as a whole, the borders would have been closed a long time ago.

No, if large businesses were losing money as a whole the borders would have been closed.

[busterb]

Do you really think this administration and big business gives a fuck about anything but the buck?
No, if large businesses were losing money as a whole the borders would have been closed.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

If we were losing money as a whole, the borders would have been closed a long time ago.

So as long as Minnesota raises the economic average, the border states and their southernmost municipalities can suck it, right? Because they are costing us money overall, even by the admission of the most immigration-friendly comptroller this side of the Mason-Dixon line.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by lookout123

Complete deportation isn't going to happen. Attrition can happen. Strong border enforcement, employer sanctions, stiffer penalty for being caught here illegally will make the US less attractive for potential border jumpers. Those that are already here illegally didn't cross the border once to stay forever more - they cross the border to see their families quite frequently. Stronger Border enforcement will prevent them from coming back. Stiff employer sanctions will prevent them from getting jobs illegally - many will look elsewhere for work - they came here for the money in the first place remember? Stiffer penalties for being caught are necessary because little to nothing happens now. It is a no risk crime.

These solutions make more sense, attacking the institutions instead of the reactions to them. I still think there is a deeper problem than this that has come with trade liberalization and the fact that companies that hire illegal aliens are doing it because it will allow them to make a bigger profit. Just like the migrants themselves, these companies are making rational decisions that support their best interest, capital.

If the problem with immigration is going to be solved, there will have to be focus on the real base problem, not the reactions, because every other solution will just fall flat on its face or create new problems that will have to solved in a decade or so.

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

So as long as Minnesota raises the economic average, the border states and their southernmost municipalities can suck it, right? Because they are costing us money overall, even by the admission of the most immigration-friendly comptroller this side of the Mason-Dixon line.

Oh c'mon, you expect me to give you a lot of sympathy for this problem when you refuse to give sympathy for the migrants and their problems? Blaming the immigrants is not going to solve anything, the institutions that are creating the problems are the only way this can be solved correctly.

Originally Posted by lookout123

Maybe, just maybe these people will decide to do something about the problems in their own countries rather than come here.

Can you give any suggestions on how low-skilled workers can turn their economy around, or why there is a great incentive to work here instead of in Mexico?