Options limited in Iran stand-off

[Griff]

Yep, a nut couldn't hardly fire a missile without hitting something, something big, expensive, and flying a flag.

When Bush invaded Iraq it suited his and bin Laden's interests. It suits Ahmadinejad's interests to crank up the East / West tension to keep his people in line and I suppose the neo-cons want a mushroom cloud as well.

[elSicomoro]

But notice that Mahmoud has not been running his mouth at all during this stand-off.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by sycamore

But notice that Mahmoud has not been running his mouth at all during this stand-off.

Has he figured out that our nuts are as crazy as his nuts?

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Griff

Yep, a nut couldn't hardly fire a missile without hitting something, something big, expensive, and flying a flag.

Reminds me of a line from Hunt For Red October "Your aircraft have dropped enough sonar buoys so that a man could walk from Greenland to Iceland to Scotland without getting his feet wet..."

I'd love to see a high res picture of the gulf once 4 carrier groups are packed into it. Not to mention the commercial traffic and other military vessels.

Here's the Abraham Lincoln battle group during exercises in 2000.

[elSicomoro]

Originally Posted by Griff

Has he figured out that our nuts are as crazy as his nuts?

I think I was reading about this on the BBC yesterday. I think the Ayatollah knows that he has to keep Mahmoud muzzled for now to prevent a full-scale blow up. Deep down, I think they're afraid that the Americans/British will whoop their asses and so they're trying to be somewhat civil.

[DanaC]

I really think this is one of those times when diplomacy, rather than the threat of force, has more chance of resolving the issue.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by DanaC

I really think this is one of those times when diplomacy, rather than the threat of force, has more chance of resolving the issue.

Good thing the Bush administration has placed such an emphasis on diplomacy and has assembled such a large group of skilled diplomats it can choose from.

[DanaC]

Well quite.

[Spexxvet]

Originally Posted by sycamore

Now seems like a perfectly good time for nuclear armageddon.

Tick, tick, tick.....

Can you see it? The US and Britain attack Iran from the gulf, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Pakistan, Syria, and the Iraqi insurgents attack the rear of those forces. Who knows what Turkey might do - they're in NATO, but are an Islamic government. Maybe India will enter the conflict, just to stab Pakistan in the back. Russia is friendly with Iran....

WWIII? Armageddon? The Twilight Zone?

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by sycamore

I think I was reading about this on the BBC yesterday. I think the Ayatollah knows that he has to keep Mahmoud muzzled for now to prevent a full-scale blow up. Deep down, I think they're afraid that the Americans/British will whoop their asses and so they're trying to be somewhat civil.

Yea, I read that too, here is the link:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6507451.stm

President missing

Iran officially says there is no connection between the detention of the British personnel and its own grievances.

But some hardline elements make a link between their release and other issues.


President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has faced domestic criticism
The Iranian authorities themselves are under mounting pressure domestically to ensure the release of the five Iranians held by the US military in Iraq, and hardliners are arguing that any release of the British sailors should be conditional on the release of the Iranians.

Noticeable by his absence in all this is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

From the Iranian side, the crisis has been managed by the country's Supreme National Security Council, the highest body dealing with such important matters.

Its decisions are approved by Ayatollah Khamenei, and all senior officials take part in its meetings.

President Ahmadinejad's silence may suggest that the clerical leadership is deliberately keeping him out of this matter in order to ensure that situation is not inflamed by his usual hardline rhetoric.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by Spexxvet

Who knows what Turkey might do - they're in NATO, but are an Islamic government.

Pretty secular government actually. I'd bet on them sitting it out or using it as cover to kill some Kurds.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Griff

Pretty secular government actually. I'd bet on them sitting it out or using it as cover to kill some Kurds.

The desire of Turkey to become part of the EU is stronger than thier desire to kill Kurds outside of thier border, and they would in no way support actions directly against the US. Inside thier border they have regular oppression. I doubt that they would move past that point.

[wolf]

Originally Posted by sycamore

Now seems like a perfectly good time for nuclear armageddon.

I'll add my vote for bombing them back into the stone age ... shouldn't take much, maybe just one or two suitcase nukes and it's over.

[TheMercenary]

http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...605487,00.html

[tw]

Originally Posted by glatt

And after doing a quick google news search, I see that there are now 2 US carriers in the gulf, and a third is on its way to relieve one. There's also a French carrier there.

Posted in What are we doing in Iraq?.

Meanwhile an Aircraft carrier task force is really quite impotent. Its more about hype. Its attack abilities without air tanker support (land bases) is short. Its influence is mostly emotional hype - little actual destructive power. Therefore the target must be small and especially important.