North Korea fires missles

[classicman]

I agree, but that is just the immediate effect - this will be further reaching than that.

[TheMercenary]

This is certainly a tense situation. I have heard one talking head state that various generals in the NK Army were not sure that they would continue to support the Kim regime when the current one dies off. That could be good or it could be bad.

[Kaliayev]

North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.

Its a well set pattern: the DPRK wants something. Talks are stalled, or no-one is paying attention, because, like Britain's Got Talent is nearing the season finale.

So North Korea fires a missile over Japan. Suddenly, everyone goes "WTF?", even though South Korean and Japanese sources knew this was months in the planning. Or they test a nuke and cause some rumbling in Seoul.

The UNSC convenes, and decides to slap on some punishments to the DPRK, and restart the Six Nations talks. In the course of the talks, eventually, the North Korean greivance du jour becomes obvious (usually its frozen assets. They can usually lean on China for fuel and food, since China does not want a collapsed state on its border). Agreements are made, conditions are set.

Conditions are broken, or promises are not kept. Talks break down. North Korea bides its time, and then decides to do something "crazy" again. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes. If one of them went off, it knows its existence, as a regime, is forfeit, since it could be easily traced back to them. Since so far, North Korea has been playing a very careful game of upping the stakes, this would be quite out of character for them. They know they can bluster and threaten, but as soon as a nuke goes off, China, Japan and the USA will be looking to scalp them. Which is why they stick to their bluffing in the furtherance of more concrete goals.

The main worry is that a missile will land where it is not supposed to, ie; on Japan instead of the sea on the other side. Given they're not exactly working with high technology here its a real risk. Equally, their nuclear weapons designs came from Pakistan, and one thing I do know about the Pakistani arsenal is that the detonation systems were never secured in the way most other nuclear arsenals are. Since North Korean defectors are usually political and not scientific, we don't know if they have secured the weapons properly or not. I would hope the paranoid nature of the regime would have meant this had happened, but its by no means a given. Since a power struggle is coming in a few years, between Kim's more westernized son and the military's generals, THAT is something to look out for.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Kaliayev

North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.

Usually I would agree with this but this situation isn't as clear cut. North Korea will appear weak to the world until a new successor for Kim Jong-Il takes control so the test could be a front to discourage any possible actions against the country during the transition. Also, NK's first nuclear test was not nearly as strong as was expected so this could show not only the world, but the NK population, that the administration is still strong even with Kim Jong-Il being replaced soon.

Originally Posted by kaliayev

Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes.

Yes, in my opinion NK would have to be suicidal to sell nukes but they could use this event to advertise other weapons such as ballistic missiles.

[Perry Winkle]

If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Perry Winkle

If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?

That would give North Korea and Iran too much power. NK and Iran would actually have more incentive to create more nuclear weapons since they know they will get a lot of money from it and then NK and Iran would also have influence over our decisions.

Another reason is that we want to have power over NK and Iran. Once those countries get nuclear weapons, they will instantly become regional powers and the United States won't mess with them.

[piercehawkeye45]

I don't think anyone wants to see NK collapse. Refugees would be in the hundreds of thousands and no one wants a nuclear weapon to go missing.

[classicman]

Sorry as you are tommyboy, you have cornered the market on that objective. Your political agenda is as obvious as the emotions in your posts. But I did find a link for you - Here it is

[TheMercenary]

[Undertoad]

The world's only hope is that they are rational actors.

[classicman]

"They" are holding a trial this week too.

SEOUL, South Korea – As global powers debate how to punish North Korea for its nuclear defiance, two American journalists seized nearly three months ago face a trial this week in Pyongyang on charges that could land them in one of the country's notorious labor camps.

North Korean guards detained Laura Ling and Euna Lee, reporters for former Vice President Al Gore's Current TV media venture, at the northeastern border with China on March 17. Activists who helped organize their trip say they had been reporting on North Korean women and children who fled to China for an uncertain life as refugees.

Pyongyang accused the Americans of engaging in "hostile acts" and crossing into communist North Korea illegally, and announced two weeks ago the women will stand trial June 4 in the nation's top court. Legal experts say conviction for "hostility" or espionage could mean five to 10 years in a labor camp.

Their detention and trial comes at a sensitive time in the diplomatic scramble to rein in an increasingly belligerent Pyongyang, which conducted an underground nuclear test last Monday and punctuated the defiance with an array of short-range missile tests. Diplomats at the U.N. are discussing a new Security Council resolution.

[classicman]

It's Official - sort of...
N. Korea's Kim taps 26-year-old son as successor

North Korea's Kim Jong Il has anointed his 26-year-old son — said to be competitive, proficient in English and a heavy drinker — as the next leader of the communist state, news reports said Tuesday.

[piercehawkeye45]

North Korea hasn't declared anything yet and all this information is coming from South Korea intelligence. Some still think this is just a rumor started by South Korea and his first son may still be a possible successor.

“I am skeptical about these reports,” said Lee Seung-yong, an official at Good Friends, a Buddhist-affiliated relief agency that collects news about North Korea from informants inside the country. “I even think that rumors spreading among party officials in North Korea about who’s succeeding Kim Jong-il actually originate in South Korean media, which then report these rumors.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/wo..._r=1&ref=world

Other source:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124394212700076381.html

[classicman]

thanks PH - good links. I especially liked the one from the WSJ.
Note the lead in my post included a sarcastic - "sort of..."

[ZenGum]

said to be competitive, proficient in English and a heavy drinker

Well, Yeltsin was a great success, so why not?