Look Everybody We're East Berlin, Pre-Wall Topple!

[richlevy]

Stay long enough in the middle of any insurgency, and soliders will eventually end up taking it out on the civilians.

In part this is because of the correctly held belief that the insurgency would probably not exist without either active or passive support from civlians. Unfortunately, making the distinction between 'guilty' civilians and true bystanders is impossible, and false ID's are almost guaranteed.

Of course, the more assaults on civilians that take place, the more civilians will engage in active or passive support for the insurgents.

This is why it is not possible to wipe out an insurgency except by becoming Saddam Hussein. Hussein kept out terrorists and insurgents simply by being the most brutal bastard in the region. The Germans in WWII were almost as effective and the various resistance movements probably would not have succeeded without Allied support.

The only other solution is to make the insurgency obsolete by addressing the political and social problems leading the the dissatisfaction that the populace feels. In Iraq, this would mean getting the goverment functioning and the occupation/liberation troops out. This would remove popular support. Unfortunately, there would still be the issue of support from foreign sources, which would require a trained indigenous force to handle.

This means that we will be there a while. At a guess, figure 2 to 2 1/2 times where we are in terms of money and casualties.