War with Iraq

[Xugumad]

Undertoad
The truth is, there are ready alternatives to gasoline right now. They cost about twice what oil costs. If oil gets too expensive, the alternatives will start to kick in.

In theory, sure. But that assumed perfect competition, which is an unattainable economic model. Practically speaking, the barriers to entry in many markets, such as the energy market, may hinder certain technologies from being adopted even if it's economically feasible to do so.

Let's assume a gallon of gasoline costs $1.50 where you live (to the end consumer). In theory, if it tripled in price to $4.50, alternative methods would quickly be adopted, right? Yet the price for a gallon of gas in many areas of Europe is already close to $4.50, and it's not just local taxation, even though the petrol giants usually try to sell that idea to Europeans. It's what the market supports. End users are adapting to those prices, and so do the economies, using a variety of methods. In those countries where it's becoming unfeasible to rely on gas (simply because it's the least future-proof energy source we have at our disposal), wind and water 'powerplants' are already the only new source of energy. (e.g. some Scandinavian countries, Germany, etc) This is done through government bullying and against the resistance of oil companies, for obvious reasons. It seems obvious to any student of the energy industry that the oil companies will continue to ride the oil train, lobbying governments, until it's inevitable that oil reserves are running out.

It seems inevitable that consumers in countries that are 90% dependant on cars for individual and goods transportation would rather suffer higher gas prices for extended periods of time rather than switch to alternate means of transportation. It's short-sighted to continue paying $5/gallon for gas, but it's how behavioural patterns seem to develop.

The irony, of course, is that mass transportation is relatively trivial to switch to alternate energy sources. Changing every car's engine, however, is an entirely different thing altogether. (insert comments about the car industry's lobbying to sabotage Amtrak etc here)

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