100,000 Iraqi Civilians have died in current war

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by Beestie

I think, for example, there is more than a 99% confidence interval that the winning lottery ticket was not, in fact, a winner. Over time, the "99% of the time the ticket will not be a winner" conclusion will be proven correct. But you can't take an average and apply it to a single observation. At best, its meaningless and at worst, its very misleading.

Interesting. So you think this survey is probably the "lottery winner" survey that falls outside the 95% confidence area, and moreover the real number is below, not above, that number.

I guess that's the attitude of most people buying lottery tickets. Though the average lottery ticket has a much lower cost.