Election Predictions - Page 2

bluesdave · 11-01-2004, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radar

You vote for who you'd rather have first, second, and third in that order, and the one with the most votes wins. This would give third parties a real chance.

We have that system here in Australia, but we call it preferential voting. It works very well, except that in the senate we end up with huge ballot papers (78 candidates in my state), and if you want to give preferences, you have to number the whole ballot. One mistake, and your vote is invalidated. Most people take the easy option, and just place a "1" against their preferred party (this means they choose not to give preferences). It is easier in our lower house, because you have a much smaller number of candidates, but in the lower house ballot, preference voting is compulsory, so you have to number every candidate.

TheSnake · 11-01-2004, 06:38 PM

Kerry is going to win because he has rounded up all the first-time voter malcontents.

11-01-2004, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSnake

Kerry is going to win because he has rounded up all the first-time voter malcontents.

HaHaHa! I hope you're right! :p

alphageek31337 · 11-01-2004, 09:47 PM

electoral-vote.com has already called it for Kerry, and he seems to be winning as of the latest polls. They're predicting the average 2:1 split against the incumbent party in undecided voters, which is a pretty historically accurate figure....

elSicomoro · 11-01-2004, 09:51 PM

I posted this in another thread, but...

Kitsune · 11-02-2004, 08:54 AM

Gee, and here I thought the media was bad for calling it early in 2000. But now the voters are, too?

iamthewalrus109 · 11-02-2004, 09:31 AM

Kerry 267 Kerry 257
Bush 271 or Bush 281

I don't think Kerry is going to take Missouri or Florida, as shown in the map from sycamore, I just don't think it's going to happen. Accordingly, I don't think West Virginia is a given for Bush, but is strong to go Bush. I heard one elector is thinking about going Kerry if Bush starts to win an electoral battle. Ohio is not looinkg good for GW though, I think he's going to loose that, but Florida and Missouri I'm not too sure about. Furthermore, states that Kerry has taken for granted, like my home state of NJ, I would be watchful of, your going to see much more Republican votes here than anticipated. NJ is a very segreagated state for all intents and purposes, with disparate populations living in separate communities to a larger extent. In suburban communities here all you see are Bush signs, these are the same communites that have a municipal police force that will stop anybody that's a shade or two darker than the resident population The large Dem voting blocks exist in the inner cities and the surrounding areas like Newark, Camden, etc., but 9/11 is a wild card in this election for the state of NJ, that's why you saw Bush campaining here, even traditionally democratic voters have shifted, and I don't think it's been handled too well by the polls. I think it's not going to be a blow away victory in any event, for either candidate. In the end I hand a narrow victory to GW.

-Walrus

Radar · 11-02-2004, 11:00 AM

As far as battleground states go, Bush will get AZ, MO, TN, AR, NV, FL, IA, and WV, but it's not going to help him, because Kerry will get OH, PA, NM, NH, WI, OR, MN, ME, and WA.

This means out of the 18 battleground states, Bush will get 77 Electoral Votes and Kerry will get 114.

Some consider CO to be a battleground state too. Bush will win in CO. If the ballot measure to divide the electoral votes proportionally (as all states should do), Bush will lose some of their 9 electoral votes.

Bush will surely lose today, and it couldn't happen to a more deserving person.

iamthewalrus109 · 11-02-2004, 11:18 AM

Sorry to rain on your parade Radar, but none of us have an idea who's going to win this one, so why act as if what your saying is the future. Judging by the closing statement of your post, I can see where the hopes of your estimating lies. I could never say Bush should win, but I tend to think MN, and some other surprises lie in store for the Kerry camp. To debate how the numbers are going to fall is presumptious as it is ridiculous although I made my own feeble attempt in my last post. In some cases anectdotal evidence is better, especially considering our experience with traditional polling in 2000, ie. it's unreliable in many cases, especially in close contests, and especially at trying to calculate results at the local level. My assertion of a GW win is largely based on my belief that popular elections like this are now fixed at the local level. The advent of the "battleground" state, not only stems from a divided electorate, but it stems from the knowledge by both parties that voting irregularities in the states can be manipulated. If you can influence turnout in a couple of key states, its not just about votes, but about mounting pressure through litigation and intimiation to effect the outcome and final tallying of those votes. Don't trust the polls!!!!

-Walrus

garnet · 11-02-2004, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radar

Bush will surely lose today, and it couldn't happen to a more deserving person.

Here here! I'm not getting my hopes up just yet, but I can't wait to see the look on his smug face if he has to give a concession speech tonight. :p

Happy Monkey · 11-02-2004, 12:45 PM

My prediction: Woodrow Wilson. Apparently he's won every year the Red Sox have won the World Series.

(stolen from a caller to the Ron & Fez radio show, accuracy not checked)

Trilby · 11-02-2004, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garnet

Here here! I'm not getting my hopes up just yet, but I can't wait to see the look on his smug face if he has to give a concession speech tonight. :p

Dubya? Concession speech? He would NEVER! NEVER! He doesn't know HOW to give concession! If he loses, and I sincerely hope he does, I'll betcha he just sticks his tongue out at us all and zips away in his spaceship.

Radar · 11-02-2004, 03:43 PM

Sorry, but a spaceship would hint at intelligent life. He'd crawl back under his rock.

11-02-2004, 04:48 PM

For exit poll results try this site : http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/

richlevy · 11-02-2004, 07:57 PM

I thought Radar was nuts until I saw this Zogby poll. I still think Radar is nuts in general, but he might actually be close.

Keep in mind that Zogby is playing with some razor thin margins here. To see the whole poll, go to www.zogby.com

11-01-2004, 09:47 PM	#19
alphageek31337 Enemy Combatant/Evildoer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Posts: 263	electoral-vote.com has already called it for Kerry, and he seems to be winning as of the latest polls. They're predicting the average 2:1 split against the incumbent party in undecided voters, which is a pretty historically accurate figure.... __________________ The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself. ---Friedrich Nietzsche

11-02-2004, 09:31 AM	#22
iamthewalrus109 High Propagandist Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 111	Prediction Kerry 267 Kerry 257 Bush 271 or Bush 281 I don't think Kerry is going to take Missouri or Florida, as shown in the map from sycamore, I just don't think it's going to happen. Accordingly, I don't think West Virginia is a given for Bush, but is strong to go Bush. I heard one elector is thinking about going Kerry if Bush starts to win an electoral battle. Ohio is not looinkg good for GW though, I think he's going to loose that, but Florida and Missouri I'm not too sure about. Furthermore, states that Kerry has taken for granted, like my home state of NJ, I would be watchful of, your going to see much more Republican votes here than anticipated. NJ is a very segreagated state for all intents and purposes, with disparate populations living in separate communities to a larger extent. In suburban communities here all you see are Bush signs, these are the same communites that have a municipal police force that will stop anybody that's a shade or two darker than the resident population The large Dem voting blocks exist in the inner cities and the surrounding areas like Newark, Camden, etc., but 9/11 is a wild card in this election for the state of NJ, that's why you saw Bush campaining here, even traditionally democratic voters have shifted, and I don't think it's been handled too well by the polls. I think it's not going to be a blow away victory in any event, for either candidate. In the end I hand a narrow victory to GW. -Walrus

11-02-2004, 11:00 AM	#23
Radar Constitutional Scholar Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Ocala, FL Posts: 4,006	As far as battleground states go, Bush will get AZ, MO, TN, AR, NV, FL, IA, and WV, but it's not going to help him, because Kerry will get OH, PA, NM, NH, WI, OR, MN, ME, and WA. This means out of the 18 battleground states, Bush will get 77 Electoral Votes and Kerry will get 114. Some consider CO to be a battleground state too. Bush will win in CO. If the ballot measure to divide the electoral votes proportionally (as all states should do), Bush will lose some of their 9 electoral votes. Bush will surely lose today, and it couldn't happen to a more deserving person. __________________ "I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin

11-02-2004, 11:18 AM	#24
iamthewalrus109 High Propagandist Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 111	As if it's a fact Sorry to rain on your parade Radar, but none of us have an idea who's going to win this one, so why act as if what your saying is the future. Judging by the closing statement of your post, I can see where the hopes of your estimating lies. I could never say Bush should win, but I tend to think MN, and some other surprises lie in store for the Kerry camp. To debate how the numbers are going to fall is presumptious as it is ridiculous although I made my own feeble attempt in my last post. In some cases anectdotal evidence is better, especially considering our experience with traditional polling in 2000, ie. it's unreliable in many cases, especially in close contests, and especially at trying to calculate results at the local level. My assertion of a GW win is largely based on my belief that popular elections like this are now fixed at the local level. The advent of the "battleground" state, not only stems from a divided electorate, but it stems from the knowledge by both parties that voting irregularities in the states can be manipulated. If you can influence turnout in a couple of key states, its not just about votes, but about mounting pressure through litigation and intimiation to effect the outcome and final tallying of those votes. Don't trust the polls!!!! -Walrus

11-02-2004, 12:45 PM	#26
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	My prediction: Woodrow Wilson. Apparently he's won every year the Red Sox have won the World Series. (stolen from a caller to the Ron & Fez radio show, accuracy not checked) __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

11-01-2004, 06:38 PM	#17
TheSnake Resident President Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 83	Kerry is going to win because he has rounded up all the first-time voter malcontents.

11-01-2004, 09:51 PM	#20
elSicomoro Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 12,486	I posted this in another thread, but...

11-02-2004, 08:54 AM	#21
Kitsune still eats dirt Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 3,031	Gee, and here I thought the media was bad for calling it early in 2000. But now the voters are, too?

11-02-2004, 03:43 PM	#28
Radar Constitutional Scholar Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Ocala, FL Posts: 4,006	Sorry, but a spaceship would hint at intelligent life. He'd crawl back under his rock. __________________ "I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin

11-02-2004, 04:48 PM	#29
marichiko Guest Posts: n/a	For exit poll results try this site : http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/

11-02-2004, 07:57 PM	#30
richlevy King Of Wishful Thinking Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Philadelphia Suburbs Posts: 6,669	5 pm Zogby I thought Radar was nuts until I saw this Zogby poll. I still think Radar is nuts in general, but he might actually be close. Keep in mind that Zogby is playing with some razor thin margins here. To see the whole poll, go to www.zogby.com Attached Images __________________ Exercise your rights and remember your obligations - VOTE! I have always believed that hope is that stubborn thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us so long as we have the courage to keep reaching, to keep working, to keep fighting. -- Barack Hussein Obama

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