Post Election Predictions

[hot_pastrami]

I think if Kerry is elected, the situation in Iraq will shortly stop getting worse. This isn't exactly the same as improving, but it's much better than the steady decline we see now. Kerry will be able to make decisions which are not motivated by pride, and from an informed perspective which is not tainted by the Bush administration.

I believe that with Kerry in the driver's seat, we'll see progress towards stability in Iraq sooner than with Bush, though on the order of months or years, not weeks. He may also win us back some trust in the world... a little in the short term, and a lot over a couple of years.

With Bush in the driver's seat, even if he puts the draft into effect, the situation in Iraq will probably deteriorate to eventually require a full withdrawal. This will leave the area a complete mess, and effectively destroy what few meager shreds of credibility and support the US has left. After such a catastrophe, any attempt the US makes to police the world will be met with suspicion and hostility, whether the actions are justified or not. Bush completely squandered the trust the US earned over the decades, as well as the post-9/11 goodwill.