Iranian missile test

Yes, I'm registered for what good it will do. Colorado always goes Republican, and we are hardly a swing state. I was wondering about the possibility of terrorism from within this country. Out in western Colorado near a little town called Naturita there are about a million abandoned uranium mines. There's still plenty of the stuff there. Everywhere you go in the mountains there are huge radiation warning signs. No one ever pays much attention to the area these days. I have a friend who is building several houses on an abandoned mining claim and no one - even the locals - knows he exists. It's a pretty remote and lonely area. Just wondered what the possibilities were of a terrorist group forming a "commune" in some place like Naturita?

[Elspode]

There's plenty of plutonium in the world which has gone unaccounted for. The desire for hard cash in the former Soviet bloc pretty much assures that.

Probably a warhead or two out there somewhere, waiting for the right time and place.

I don't think the likelihood of a nuclear detonation somewhere in the world within this decade is at all small. Who's to say that someone somewhere won't arrange to get a weapon into the hands of someone who would be glad to have it? Korea could do it. China could do it. Iran can, in all likelihood, do it. Pakistan and India could do it.

I'd be real surprised if we *don't* have someone blow up some non-Muslim city somewhere in our lifetimes.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Elspode

I don't think the likelihood of a nuclear detonation somewhere in the world within this decade is at all small. Who's to say that someone somewhere won't arrange to get a weapon into the hands of someone who would be glad to have it? Korea could do it. China could do it. Iran can, in all likelihood, do it. Pakistan and India could do it.

This is hype and fear that George Jr promotes. The more "Al Qaeda is planning to .... " stories, then the more we run to support a mental midget president. I have long become tired of all these plans that bin Laden has been making, especially when a real threat is Muslim Brotherhood - not from the disorganized remains of Al Qaeda.

A major amount of plutonium has gone unaccounted for. Yes many pounds. Stuff lost in dust, cleaning, processing, etc. Literally ounces scattered everywhere. But even many pounds is not enough to make one bomb. If we take all the missing plutonium lost in factory ducts, open fields, etc, then there are dangerous plutonium bombs hiding everywhere waiting to be discovered by terrorists. Fictional nonsense from Rush Limbaugh types because our president must promote fear.

A 1940 technology atom bomb required a massively large amount of weapons grade material to compensate for its crude design. Where do these terrorists get many times more weapons grade material when obtaining enough for a single sophisticated bomb is itself so difficult? Again, too many people only know this is easily accomplished by reading too much bad fiction - written by authors who never did years of research before writing.

Of course we only need mine uranium in one of those abandoned CO mines? Problem is the numbers - so many tons of material removed from a mine that only yields ounces of uranium. A pick and shovel every day for years could not produce anywhere near enough uranium for even one sophisticated bomb - let alone one crude bomb.

Notice the difference between fiction hype verses reality created by applying numbers. Just because someone owns a uranium mine means he can secretly mine enough uranium to build one bomb? Only when we don't apply numbers to that fiction.

The squash court in U of Chicago did not produce a 'bomb like' chain reaction. They were not using weapons grade U238 to make the world's first atomic reaction. However, one might speculate, based upon what was posted here, that even a bomb could have been constructed in a squash court in Chicago. Again, how to distort reality into a terrorism by not first learning the details. Missing details is why Saddam got all his Weapons of Mass Destruction. Too many only read the Daily News which means they are still not informed.

Somehow there is this 'informed' idea that all one need do is push the button to 'ignite' a nuclear weapon. Again, too much reasoning based upon a Tom Cruise or James Bond movies. One stolen weapon alone cannot be exploded. It is more complex.

Atomic bombs are difficult to build. Using 1940 technology - some of which still is not easily obtained in 2004 - means the bomb must be massively larger and therefore that much easier to detect. Thousands of people and massive amounts of energy worked years to build a few crude and therefore very large atom bombs. Suddenly anyone can build one in their own garage? Which fiction writer is writing this stuff? Again, this is the hype that George Jr would have us believe. Fear and loathing made so easy when conclusions fail to apply numbers and perspective.

The only way an atomic device will get triggered inside a city is with full cooperation of a organization so large as to be called a national government. Such governments can only exist if the US continues to alienate every nation in the world.

Again, an atom bomb fear belongs with the same mental midgets who have us spending $billions on an anti-ballistic missile system to protect us from bin Laden's ballistic missiles. Previously, I had posted a far more effective terrorist disaster using far less technology. The few who read it are invited to confirm how simple and destructive this attack could be - *without* any indication of what that attack is. The point is that while the 'powers that be' hype fear and loathing, terrorists are doing things simpler and obvious.

Those worried about an atomic terrorist weapon would be the same people who read a PDB warning of an immenent Al Qaeda attack; then say it was only historical information. We call those people naive, ill-informed, and extremists with a political agenda. Worry about real world type terrorist attacks; not atomic myths. Worry more about those who promote those mythical fears. Or as Tom Clancy describes them, "Because we elect idiots." (an exact quote on Charlie Rose).

Think. Bin Laden limited his attack to only four planes because even an attack involving only 30 people (when the US government was undermining all anti-terrorism actions) is still an extremely difficult task. Terrorism limited to only ten operatives is difficult to execute. A stolen atomic device would required hundreds of operatives handling an item that even advertises itself.

The point: if one fears big hype threats such as terrorists with a nuclear weapon or terrorists with ballistic missiles, then one spends too much time watching fiction movies, worshipping anti-ballistic missile systems, and listening to a mentally deficient president hyping fictional terrorist threats to get reelected. One should instead spend more time learning about reality.

Those who think a nuclear device by terrorists is a reasonable possibility may still 'hope' those aluminum tubes were for processing uranium. Yes there are still people with a George Jr myth on reality. (Those from the world of reality use a 'grip' instead of 'myth'.) A nuclear terrorist attack even involving a stolen weapon requires extensive, or special and exclusive resources of a large national government. This, of course, assumes the mental midget president does not completely alienate most of the world's nations. Without all those friends doing so such spying for us, the US would then be more vulnerable to a roque nation that no one suspected was a rogue nation.

As soon as I hear one spouting the premise from a James Bond Thunderball or Goldfinger movie, then I know this person spends too much time believing George Jr. There are many good and exposed targets for a terrorism list. A terrorist nuclear weapon does not even appear at the bottom of the last page. Can bin Landen do what then entire nation of Iran finds difficult? Yes if you also believe that terrorists will launch ballistic missiles. Give me a break. If a nuclear weapon could be stolen, Iran would steal it long before terrorists. Suddenly terrorists are cleaning the ducts in Hanford to collect enough plutonium to build a bomb? Which pulp fiction book was that?

Its called having dirt under your finger nails. A terrorist atom bomb exists only in fiction. Real world terrorists instead use readily available and innocent looking materials to reek more damage.

[russotto]

Originally Posted by tw

A major amount of plutonium has gone unaccounted for. Yes many pounds. Stuff lost in dust, cleaning, processing, etc. Literally ounces scattered everywhere. But even many pounds is not enough to make one bomb.

13.6 pounds was sufficient in 1945. Two bombs designed without the benefit of any existing weapons technology, without even electronic computers (let alone supercomputers). Yield: 21kt.

[glatt]

And plutonium is heavy. So the quanity is less than you might think, in terms of its volume. I imagine a coffee can full of the stuff would be enough.

[tw]

Originally Posted by russotto

13.6 pounds was sufficient in 1945.

Good luck finding a missing 10 pounds of plutonium. You would be better off trying to photograph secret alien aircraft in Area 51.

Even one pound of missing plutonium would cause massive evacuations and would loudly advertise itself. The stuff is that well monitored first and foremost because it would kill many if simply misplaced. Again, it is in fiction books that terrorist happens to stumble on even one pound of plutonium hidden on a back road.

TW, I agree with you that a terrorist is going to use whatever method is the most inexpensive and expedient. I was mostly just fooling around with my "wilds of Colorado" scenario. However, I disagree with your assessment of terrorist mentality. I think many intelligent people in the Middle East both fear and hate the West for reasons from both current and past history. The minions who carry the actual tasks out may indeed be evil mental midgets, but the hand behind the scenes is an intelligent one. Intelligence is no guarantee of emotional stability, and any number of otherwise bright people are guilty of black and white thinking in at least some areas of their lives. Any soldier who goes to war must think in black and white terms, otherwise he could never stand his ground on the field of battle.

I also do not share your complacency regarding the efficacy of soviet nuclear security. The Soviet Union has become pretty chaotic, at least when compared to the days of the old Communist regime, and there are plenty of desperate people who would look the other way for enough money and the border with the MidEast is right there in the backyard. I'll agree, it would be a major pain in the ass to pull off, but if it were to happen, I think the former USSR would be a more likely vector than would cautious, strait-laced Japan.

[xoxoxoBruce]

I dropped the possibility of Bush attacking Iran into a conversation today. 2 of the 4 people gave me a "Duh, well of course he is".