The Politics of a Health Crisis

[sexobon]

Originally Posted by tw

All masks are effective. Some more than others. Claims or denials say nothing useful without numbers. … Any mask is better than none.

Numbers can lie. They don't take into account human behavior. 98% is a statistical certainty, 95% a statistical probability regardless of human behavior. People may take excessive risks in other areas of infection control to their detriment with masks less than 95% effective.

Case in point: years ago, lumbar support belts were recommended by OSHA for workers doing heavy lifting. Employers wanted them used to reduce employee down time and workmen's compensation claims. Insurance companies wanted them used to reduce payouts which they wouldn't give unless the support belts were being worn at time of injury. Governments wanted them used to demonstrate their concern for the health and welfare of their constituents.. The prevailing thought was that anything was better than nothing and OSHA went along with it.

In practical application, employees started doing heavy lifting that they wouldn't have previously done, without help, thinking that the support belts would protect them and give them more time to do their jobs rather than waiting for assistance. The number of injuries shot up dramatically and it became an industry crisis. Employers balked, insurance companies balked, and governments balked as injured employees sued anyone they could over the misrepresentation that they would be safer wearing support belts; because, anything was better than nothing. OSHA not only retracted their recommendation, they specifically recommended against it.

Using numbers without factoring in human behavior is a fool's game.

[DanaC]

Originally Posted by sexobon

Numbers can lie. They don't take into account human behavior. 98% is a statistical certainty, 95% a statistical probability regardless of human behavior. People may take excessive risks in other areas of infection control to their detriment with masks less than 95% effective.

Case in point: years ago, lumbar support belts were recommended by OSHA for workers doing heavy lifting. Employers wanted them used to reduce employee down time and workmen's compensation claims. Insurance companies wanted them used to reduce payouts which they wouldn't give unless the support belts were being worn at time of injury. Governments wanted them used to demonstrate their concern for the health and welfare of their constituents.. The prevailing thought was that anything was better than nothing and OSHA went along with it.

In practical application, employees started doing heavy lifting that they wouldn't have previously done, without help, thinking that the support belts would protect them and give them more time to do their jobs rather than waiting for assistance. The number of injuries shot up dramatically and it became an industry crisis. Employers balked, insurance companies balked, and governments balked as injured employees sued anyone they could over the misrepresentation that they would be safer wearing support belts; because, anything was better than nothing. OSHA not only retracted their recommendation, they specifically recommended against it.

Using numbers without factoring in human behavior is a fool's game.

Really good point.

[tw]

Originally Posted by DanaC

Really good point.

He simply forgets that a person with N95 mask, worn improperly, is still much better protected than someone wearing a bandanna improperly. Even if worn incorrectly, a superior mask remains superior protection.

It is hard to not wear a mask improperly. It covers a mouth and nose. It fits on a face. Who, other than a 4 years old, cannot figure that out?

the main reason for wearing one isnt to protect the wearer but to reduce the chances the wearer might inadvertently spread the virus if they happen to be presymptomatic or asymptomatic.

Exactly. We do social distancing, masks, etc to protect the most 'at risk' people - the medical industry. They will die if too many are infected at any one time.

Eventually 60% to 70% of us must be infected to end this. If that takes many more months, then less doctors and nurses will die.

Currently somewhere between 5% and 15% of us have been infected. In NYC, that number may be 35%. Techniques (such as masks or bandanna) only reduce a number of infected people at any one time.

We wear masks to not infect others. It does much less to protect ourselves.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by tw

We wear masks to not infect others. It does much less to protect ourselves.

This is true, but in both cases it's better than not.

[sexobon]

Originally Posted by tw

… It is hard to not wear a mask improperly. It covers a mouth and nose. It fits on a face. Who, other than a 4 years old, cannot figure that out? ...

“Long thread ahead!” warned the doctor before explaining how face masks really work