The Politics of a Health Crisis

[Clodfobble]

Boris has got it. Whether he lives or dies will no doubt dramatically affect public sentiment in the UK as to the seriousness of the pandemic. If he recovers quickly, the "it's just like the flu" crowd will be emboldened. If he dies, many who weren't taking it seriously may begin to, but I predict we'll also see a spike in conspiracy theories, a la "it's only killing conservatives," "someone infected him deliberately," "the virus was used to cover his assassination," etc.

Best case scenario, politically, is probably that he gets very, very ill, but recovers. Even in that case, there will be a lot of public resentment if he gets a ventilator when others didn't.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Boris has got it. Whether he lives or dies will no doubt dramatically affect public sentiment in the UK as to the seriousness of the pandemic.

People who come from where the work gets done and were warning about this in the UK, provided numbers from their models.

A UK model assumes a typically infected person will pass this virus on to 2.4 others. Of them, 4.4% will require hospitalization. By doing nothing (until even he was infected), models suggest that the infected would peak in mid-May. With various suppression strategies, that peak may happen in November.

Estimated ICU capacity is about 8 beds per 100,000. Numbers say Boris is unlikely to require hospitalization. But if he does, he will be a 'lucky' one who gets an ICU bed.