Libya, Will Gaddafi prevail?

[ZenGum]

Mostly I am thinking: what the #$%& have we just gotten ourselves into?

I say "we" because although Australia is not sending forces (err ... yet ...) we're allies and this will have global consequences.

The mission creep has been spectacular. We've gone from a no-fly zone, through air strikes on tanks and mobile artillery pieces, to "Gaddafi's got to go", in barely three days.

The conflict on the ground could go three ways: Gaddafi wins, stalemate or rebels win.

Suppose Gaddafi is winning despite the air strikes. How close support are we willing to provide? A-10s? Helicopter Gunships? Advisors?

Suppose they fight to a stalemate, the rebels holding some cities, G-man holding others. How long do we maintain this protection? It was over a decade in Iraq. How much will that cost, in lives, money and goodwill?

Suppose the rebels win. I hope they behave themselves when they take the capital, but after a regime like Gaddafi's, the end will come with payback. Then what?

What of the rest of the Arab world? Does this tell the other Arab leaders that mass force will bring international reprisals? Will other Arab people's movements expect similar help? Or will Gaddafi win the propaganda battle and convince the middle-east that the west is seeking to recolonise them?

There are so many ways that this could go wrong, and relatively small payoff even if it goes well, that it seems to me our leaders have decided with their hearts as much as their heads. The situation was urgent and time was short and we have acted. That is not always a bad thing.
Now that we're in, we should press this home as effectively as we can and try to end it and leave. I am not hopeful that this will be as soon as we would like. Interesting times.