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Originally Posted by Beestie
I think, for example, there is more than a 99% confidence interval that the winning lottery ticket was not, in fact, a winner. Over time, the "99% of the time the ticket will not be a winner" conclusion will be proven correct. But you can't take an average and apply it to a single observation. At best, its meaningless and at worst, its very misleading.
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Interesting. So you think this survey is probably the "lottery winner" survey that falls outside the 95% confidence area, and moreover the real number is below, not above, that number.
I guess that's the attitude of most people buying lottery tickets. Though the average lottery ticket has a much lower cost.