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Old 07-16-2002, 09:49 PM   #16
elSicomoro
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As long as they don't accidentally bomb a desert rave...
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Old 07-16-2002, 11:04 PM   #17
Tobiasly
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Quote:
Originally posted by Scred
just cos someone says it's so, and it sounds plausible, doesn't validate it.
I didn't say it was "validated", I said a lot of what we've been hearing from several different places meshes into a specific sort of picture. It could all be completely way off base. My original point was that word surfacing that he was wounded might have been used as fresh criticism for the military campaign, which doesn't seem to have happened.
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for example: dozens of al qaeda have snuck into the US in container ships, prepared to attack US targets. true or false? according to sources®, it's true.
I know you think your little ® is rather witty, but those sources® are some no-name internet rag. The sources® I quoted is Reuters, which is one of the most respected news reporting organizations in the country. Yes, they in turn got it from much less reliable sources.

So let me try to phrase my original point a little more clearly. Several sources -- the head of German intelligence, a general from the northern alliance who was on the ground commanding troops, and an Arab journalist who has close ties with some members of Al Qaeda -- all give information that points to the same result.

Yes, they could all be pulling it out of their asses, and especially the last one might be trying to spread misinformation, or may be unwittingly someone else's vessel for spreading misinformation. But as Maggie pointed out, OBL being wounded in the shoulder is rather plausible, given that his arm appeared to be wounded in his last cameo appearance.

So all of this paints a picture where our military might have goofed in their assessment of the situation. I'm not saying that's how it is, or even that I believe it, just that I wouldn't be surprised if some of Bush's opponents used it for criticism. And if it <I>is</I> true that we were over-reliant on air support, then we need to change our approach to further similar situations.
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Old 07-16-2002, 11:16 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally posted by MaggieL
All the stuff I've heard cited along those lines were facts--actual intelligence take--rather than non-facts. There's a difference between intel and rumors, and I'm sure as a military guy you appreciate that.
True, bad example on my part. I'm just gonna drop it there because we're kinda getting away from what I intended. As a military guy, I was hoping for more of a discussion on pounding the shit out of stuff from the sky vs. sending in the boys on the ground.
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But this is a Arab journalist quoting an unnamed source. How much credibility is that worth?
The Arab jounalist said that a) OBL is alive; he was wounded by shrapnel in the shoulder but recovered, and b) that he was living somewhere near the Pakistani border.

a) I believe has a decent amount of credibility because, like you said, that arm appeared wounded in the video. And when we received the video, if I'm not mistaken, our intelligence placed it somewhere in the end-of-December timeframe. So OBL being wounded in the shoulder, then escaping Tora Bora and recovering, seems entirely believable to me. Again, not a fact or definite by any means, just pretty believable.

b) of course is much more foggy, and I will admit that no one who is talking has any sort of idea where he is. Again, I'm gonna drop that one.
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Old 07-17-2002, 07:23 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tobiasly

I know you think your little ® is rather witty, but those sources® are some no-name internet rag.
nope, but it seems to have entertained you, so it Served Its Purpose®.

and debka's far from a no name internet rag. on the middle east front, debka's the vinegar to al jazeera's oil. i put no more faith in a story carried by reuters than i do in a story carried by the asia times or dawn or debka or any other foreign source. but YMMV.

as for your point, i agree, it seems likely, but OBL might as well be Waldo now. i don't see the significance of that particular article over any other scenario of where he is.
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Old 07-17-2002, 07:48 PM   #20
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The topic of "responsible" sources has come up before. And just like we all have different opinions on things, we probably all have different opinions on what sources are good or not. I'd say that most news organizations have a bit of good and bad in them. I think there are some that ARE better than others (e.g. Anyone that takes the Philadelphia Daily News very seriously is in trouble, IMO), but in the end, it's really a judgement call on your own part.
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Old 07-17-2002, 08:25 PM   #21
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the other side of the coin, from our friends at AP

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...en_3&printer=1

FBI Boss Thinks bin Laden is Dead
Wed Jul 17, 5:23 PM ET
By CHRISTOPHER NEWTON, Associated Press Writer

FBI counterterrorism chief Dale Watson said Wednesday that he believes Osama bin Laden ( news - web sites) is dead — the first time a senior U.S. law enforcement official publicly has given an opinion on the al-Qaida leader's status.

Watson quickly emphasized that he had no evidence that the suspected mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks was dead. But his comments, at a conference of local law enforcement officials from across the country, suggest the FBI has no direct intelligence that proves bin Laden is alive.

"Is (bin Laden) alive or is he dead?" Watson said. "I am not really sure of the answer ... I personally think he is probably not with us anymore but I have no evidence to support that."

Watson also said bin Laden's al-Qaida network of terrorist training camps has been dismantled, but "there is no question in my mind ... we will be attacked again."

The terrorist "fleas" infesting the country "want to kill you," Watson said. "They could be in your neighborhood."

He said the government is committed to sharing information with the public when the FBI has specific information of a terrorist threat.

Watson, who rarely makes public appearances, is the top official for counterterrorism and counterintelligence in the FBI. He did not elaborate on his comments on bin Laden and rushed away from reporters after he spoke.

Some U.S. and Justice Department officials said they were surprised by Watson's comments. They said the Bush administration's position remains that bin Laden's whereabouts and status are unknown. FBI officials declined comment.

Watson joined the FBI as a special agent in 1978. In June, 1996 he joined the CIA for several months, working as a deputy to the head of the intelligence agency's counterterrorism center. He returned to the FBI in January 1997 to take charge of international terrorism affairs and in 1999 he was named director of the agency's Counterterrorism Division.

Since December, reports of bin Laden's well-being have been sporadic and from different sources.

This month, a London-based Arabic newspaper said bin Laden was wounded in a U.S. bombing raid in Afghanistan last year but was in good health.

There was no way to verify the report in London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi. U.S. officials say they have no evidence bin Laden was wounded in the U.S. bombing of al-Qaida hide-outs in Tora Bora, Afghanistan, late last year, but acknowledge it is a possibility.

The newspaper's editor said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press that bin Laden had surgery to remove shrapnel from his left shoulder.

On Saturday, the head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service was quoted as saying bin Laden was alive and hiding along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
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Old 07-17-2002, 11:04 PM   #22
MaggieL
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Quote:
Originally posted by Scred
"I am not really sure of the answer ... I personally think he is probably not with us anymore but I have no evidence to support that."
Is this news? This is the quote that got this story onto the wire. But it means next to nothing. This was in response to a question...that real information here is "I am not sure of the answer." It certainly doesn't justiy the headline it got.
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Old 07-17-2002, 11:09 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tobiasly

a) I believe has a decent amount of credibility because, like you said, that arm appeared wounded in the video. And when we received the video, if I'm not mistaken, our intelligence placed it somewhere in the end-of-December timeframe. So OBL being wounded in the shoulder, then escaping Tora Bora and recovering, seems entirely believable to me. Again, not a fact or definite by any means, just pretty believable.
All it says is that the journalist saw the same video that we did, and knows that we saw it. He made sure that the verifiable parts of his story jived with what *is* known. He's have to be a real dimwit to write a story that *contradicted* what is known. The *un*verifiable part of his story must still stand or fall on it's own merits.
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