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Old 06-13-2014, 04:20 PM   #1
tw
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DejaVue Nam

How much has changed? Well, Iraq remained without as much electricity as when Saddam was in power. Streets that were once safe for women under Saddam are now too dangerous, in some places, even for their husbands. Due to no Phase Four planning, Iraq wasted 5000 American lives and still remains unstable. Now Maliki apparently purges too many competent generals to create what looks like another DejaVue Nam.

Currently critical is the city that was so important in 2007. Kirkuk. We can review what was known in 2007. And then ask what we really accomplished by Pearl Harboring another sovereign nation:
Bush's Shrinking Safety Zone

Unfortunately it remains unclear who holds what city. For example, there are Sunnis, Fundamentalist Sunnis, Kurd, Fundamentalist Shiites’, Shiites, and unknown outside powers. Even Republican Guards from Iran (Maliki allies) may be involved. Noted was that Sahdr had halted his attacks on Americans maybe with the intent of seeking power after Americans left. Is Sahdr one of these rebellion forces that extremist myths hype as if Al Qaeda?

Some reports claim extremists Sunnis have taken Mosul and Kirkuk. Others say the Kurds have taken power. Only one solid fact comes from all reports. Something like 4 American trained Iraqi Regiments disrobed and ran. A classic example of what happens when 85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management. A management that has apparently purged many competent officers who were apparently telling the government it is making major mistakes in the name of partisan politics (the country be damned)

Leaders in power too long (ie a decade) tend to become corrupt. Maliki has been in power only eight years and is already showing corruption by clearly favoring some peoples over others. His contempt of Sunnis has become more pronounced.

Unfortunately this sounds too much like 1972 Vietnam. DejaVue Nam was discussed in 2007 in Bush's Shrinking Safety Zone.
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Old 06-14-2014, 05:29 PM   #2
Big Sarge
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Obama pulled US forces out of Iraq. Maliki refused to allow the US to maintain bases for stability. Now Maliki is paying the price. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria was previously connected to AQ, but they were booted out for being too radical for the Sunnis. Al-Sadr is a Shiite extremist closely aligned with Iran. Their base of operations is near the holy shrines in Karbala (I was stationed there for about 6 months). There is no way al-Sadr can be a member of AQIZ or ISIS.

Obama pulled our troops out too soon. We still have bases in Germany and Japan. What was the rush to pull us out before there was a stabile government in place??
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Old 06-14-2014, 07:07 PM   #3
tw
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Sarge View Post
Al-Sadr is a Shiite extremist closely aligned with Iran. Their base of operations is near the holy shrines in Karbala (I was stationed there for about 6 months). There is no way al-Sadr can be a member of AQIZ or ISIS.
Sahdr (Al-Sadr) is a Shiite. But not necessary aligned with Maliki (a Shiite). And not necessary aligned with Iran's Republican Guards. This volatile situation has numerous parties with much in-fighting. Some even mistakenly associate ISIS with Al Qadea - a name to paint extremists as evil.

A new failure has probably been discovered. Some extremist Sunni groups have now obtained maybe $1.2 billion from conquered cities. As well as plenty of American provided armour. These extremists would have obtained most needed resources.

President Ford was in a similar situation. Did he deploy troops to S Vietnam. Or concede to what even Kennedy had been slowly discovering as inevitable. Iraq's problems are also directly traceable to its leaders. Any American deployment mean all parties will also hate and attack Americans. Its their problem to solve. We can offer assistance for the eventual negotiated settlement. But at this point, Iraqis must decide who they want to be.

Concepts defined by Tom Friedman apply. A humiliated population is ripe for extremist recruiters and a resulting civil war. Making it more difficult for anyone to remain a moderate.
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Old 06-14-2014, 07:53 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Sarge View Post
Obama pulled US forces out of Iraq. ... Obama pulled our troops out too soon. We still have bases in Germany and Japan. What was the rush to pull us out before there was a stabile government in place??
IIRC, they would only enter into a SOFA in which US military personnel would be subject to Iraqi laws. That killed any deal for staying longer since the US was espousing Iraqi sovereignty at the time.
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Old 06-22-2014, 07:22 PM   #5
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It has taken Maliki time to get some support. Whether he negotiated for it or events made it necessary is not even clear. Sahdr's Mahdi Army (mostly Shiites) finally rallied to Maliki's side. Mostly only in words. It says how little Maliki's support has been.

Kurds still stand alone. Kurd's are still rumored to hold parts of Mosul and most if not all of Kirkuk. Kirkuk is a major oil transport city. Kurd's are playing a game of independence. Leaving ISIS / ISIL to punch it out with the Iraqi army. ISIS / ISIL's purpose is not to take cities. Primarily, they are taking weapons and ammunition. Which Iraqi troop, missing leadership, are so willing to surrender intact.

In one area defended by a rumored 20,000 Iraqis, a threat created by a rumored 200 extremists caused Iraqi soldiers to flee. Biggest problem is a total lack of facts from the front (where ever that is). But the Iraqi army appears to be crumbling like a 1974 S Vietnam army. This and that both perfect examples of where 85% of all problems come from.

Part of Maliki's problem is humiliation. He was given and has done little to increase Iraqi's clearly reduced standards of living. Life was substantially better under Saddam. Civilian humiliation empowers and enriches extremists.

Some Sunni Tribes are rumored to reject these extremist conquerors. But what are they to do? The Iraqi Army has yet to put up a successful defense. And is clearly incapable of offensive action. Nobody wants to side with a loser; except maybe the Mahdi Army.
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Old 06-22-2014, 08:50 PM   #6
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The President has said that we're not going to put combat troops in Iraq; but, that we may send US Special Forces (SF) advisors in to bolster Iraqi military training. That's the official cover story for both domestic and international consumption. SF advisors are being deployed; however, it's to help establish forward operating bases. SF has for some time been training qualified Syrian refugees in base camps along the Syrian border to serve as sort of an Iraqi Foreign Legion. Their counterinsurgency combat training is nearing completion and arrangements are being made to transfer command and control of those fighters to the Kurds, not Maliki, to restore regional dominance in territory lost by Iraqi regular forces under central government control. The elite Iraqi Foreign Legion members have been offered Iraqi citizenship, small properties, and family relocation upon successful completion of their term of military service. Their soon to be Kurdish commanders are presently determining (with our advice) the best locations for forward operating bases to interdict ISIS/ISIL manpower resupply and conducting covert operations to eliminate the insurgent threat through attrition. US surgical airstrikes will support those operations. Other than that, not much new going on there.
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Old 06-23-2014, 12:43 PM   #7
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ISIS/ISIL is using captured Iraqi armored HMMWVs in Syria. There's a photo on yahoo news, but I couldn't capture & transfer it.
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