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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

glatt 03-30-2020 07:38 PM

My governor just told us all that June 10th is the earliest we will be free to travel.

sexobon 03-30-2020 08:34 PM

He's a Democrat AND a doctor; so, he has to one-up everyone else.

sexobon 03-30-2020 10:19 PM

Here's a nicely written article that looks at the pros and cons of wearing facemasks, non-medical masks in particular, in public. It comes as the CDC considers the overall value of adding the practice to its guidelines:


tw 03-30-2020 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1049808)
... June 10th is the earliest we will be free to travel.

Then we can all say, "What happened to spring?" And not be suffering from dementia.

Griff 04-01-2020 07:57 AM

Does anyone have insight into what's happening in Florida? Are they depending on local response?

Undertoad 04-01-2020 11:01 AM

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

Quote:

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret and declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.
I don't like it when anonymous intelligence officials make claims to the press. But this is not shocking news. The CDC said early on that they could not depend on China's numbers, and were using the figures from travel-related illnesses for their projections.

This thing was a mystery for far too long because of those fuckers. They even continue to lie today. The world is left to clean up their mess. Chinese government is asshoe.

Undertoad 04-01-2020 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1049926)
The CDC said early on that they could not depend on China's numbers, and were using the figures from travel-related illnesses for their projections.

But not earliest on: apparently Dr. Brix noted during yesterday's conference that the CDC depended on China's information during the early phase. That makes sense, as it took time for travelers to travel, and for their illnesses to be diagnosed and more information collected. The point at which I saw the CDC say they were using travel information was a few days into the US reaction.

Luce 04-01-2020 12:30 PM

Of course China lied. They're using 5000 funerary urns per day above normal use. Or were.

That being said, deaths in NYC passed the 1000 mark.

https://apnews.com/57ed90189a682fff96b25e7e1805facf

sexobon 04-02-2020 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV (Post 1049725)
Ok, what remarks did the doctor make that you find disconcerting?

Not to beat a dead horse; but, your video doctor may have found a protagonist in Trump:

With the video doctor's peers; however, not so much:

Quote:

Surgeon General Jerome Adams said last month that people could increase their chance of getting coronavirus if they wore masks without training. Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health, an immunologist who is a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said weeks ago that wearing a mask could encourage people to touch their face more, possibly increasing their chance of infection.
[BOLD MINE]

The disparity between the video doc and other prominent docs is also disconcerting.

It'll be interesting to see what lessons are learned and by whom.

BigV 04-02-2020 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by U.S. Surgeon General
@Surgeon_General
There remains scant evidence wearing a mask- especially improperly- provides much benefit to a healthy wearer.

However emerging data suggests facial coverings may prevent asymptomatic disease transmission to others.

6h ago as of 1230 pacific time 02 Apr 2020

emphasis mine
if you're doing it wrong, it's gonna be wrong. As for dead horses, the doctor in the first video stressed that the purpose of wearing a mask was to help the wearer become alert to the unconscious habit of touching one's face and to stop doing it. so if you're doing it, touching your face either because you're wearing a mask or because you don't have a mask to help you become aware that you're touching your face, you're still not helping yourself by touching your face and the mask is irrelevant. I suppose if the mask makes you touch your face *more*, that's a problem, but maybe you're just not using the right mask.

Everybody says stop touching your face.

If a mask helps accomplish this, great. Pockets work too--until you take your hand from your pocket to touch your face. The current news that masks maybe/probably help reduce transmission of the disease FROM asymptomatic carriers is good news in addition to any face touching reductions masks may facilitate.

sexobon 04-02-2020 03:29 PM


xoxoxoBruce 04-02-2020 10:46 PM

I saw this today...
Quote:

Under its newest COVID-19 prevention guidelines, China does not include in its overall daily count for total and for new cases those who retest positive after being released from medical care. China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.
Retest positive? Reinfected?
Don't count asymptomatic who have tested positive or not tested?
Hmm, more suspicion on their numbers.

monster 04-03-2020 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1049899)
Does anyone have insight into what's happening in Florida? Are they depending on local response?

They finally locked down on the 1st

monster 04-03-2020 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1049709)
I think it's been reported as fact that this is a rich people first virus. Early cases in Mexico were rich folks who vacationed in Colorado. If you fly you have a higher chance of picking this up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1049704)
Yes but

Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71

2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4

Just saying, it's an interesting phenomenon

Here, zipcode and ethnic stats show it's the poorer people who are getting infected

https://www.washtenaw.org/3108/Cases...0W0E4r0lv0Bkp0


48197 and 48198 are the zips for Ypsilanti and cover the poorest areas in the county.

Undertoad 04-03-2020 01:36 PM

You can see hope on this map

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html

In the middle of the page, second map down is "Where cases are rising fastest". The places it hit first and people went into harder lockdown mode are turning light pink. Seattle, SF, Brooklyn, and here in PA, Montgomery County and Chester County. Here, new rates are taking longer than a week to double. Hopefully this means the curve has changed in these locations.

Undertoad 04-03-2020 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster (Post 1050105)
Here, zipcode and ethnic stats show it's the poorer people who are getting infected

It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.

Undertoad 04-03-2020 03:36 PM

Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000

monster 04-03-2020 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050112)
It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.

Also, they're living right on top of one another. those zipcodes are full of blocks of tiny apartments and trailer parks crammed with tiny trailers

Griff 04-03-2020 03:50 PM

My current case load of kids includes 3 moms who are home health aides. These are very poor people who are pulling extra shifts because folks with resources are sitting home. We have the poor serving the old and infirm. I'm a supporter of keeping folks out of nursing homes if at all possible but this isn't going to go well.

Undertoad 04-03-2020 04:04 PM

My local example.

On 3/29, I noted:
Quote:

Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71

2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4
Five days later, today, 4/3:

Rich folk Lower Merion cases: 123. This area is doubling roughly every 8-9 days.

Working class Norristown cases: 12. The area is doubling roughly every 3 days.

Griff 04-03-2020 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050121)
Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000

National Review has reported that number.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...und-the-clock/

Undertoad 04-03-2020 05:16 PM

OK I need to get a Post subscription to fully understand quickly breaking items. That was the Post's analysis, not a re-estimate by authorities.

Griff 04-05-2020 02:16 PM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I don't know where they get data or who they are but the chart is interesting breaking things down by million population.

Undertoad 04-06-2020 09:15 AM

Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using

Overall US:
- # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766
- Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654
- Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged
- Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18

Griff 04-06-2020 10:14 AM

Much better trajectory!

Luce 04-06-2020 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050112)
It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.


That might be worth remembering later.

Undertoad 04-06-2020 10:12 PM

Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers

tw 04-06-2020 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050270)
Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using

Chart demonstrated one critical fact. Once major urban regions were locked down, then the acceleration of that curve slowed three weeks later. This infection requires at least two weeks to appear in victims.

So what happened when 'remain at home' orders are removed? A majority still do not have antibodies to protect them. And then, weeks later, many more are infected? And then, two weeks after that, those curves start climbing again?

Predictions do not discuss what will happen once everyone no longer remains isolated at home. Over 60% of us must suffer this virus and create antibodies before this pandemic ends.

monster 04-06-2020 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1050313)
Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers

:( also less likely to be well informed in the main. This is so.... aaaaargh.

monster 04-06-2020 11:56 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 70217

monster 04-07-2020 12:23 AM

African Americans disproportionately likely to be affected in USA

tw 04-07-2020 10:15 AM

That BBC article also discusses, on 27 March, the cruise ship Zaandam. That ship and the other mentioned ship, Rotterdam, remain adjacent and docked in Fort Lauderdale.

Some cruise ships are still operating.

Undertoad 04-07-2020 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1047516)
Real-time maps of PM2.5 have shown particulate matter DOWN in recent times. Here is windy.com's PM2.5 in China right now. But generally, in the recent past when you look at this map, it is deep orange over Wuhan. Greenpeace put the 2013 average at 88.7 (Beijing 90.1).

Compare with NYC's averages which are around 10.

6 weeks later, The Times is on it!

NY Times: New Research Links Air Pollution to Higher Coronavirus Death Rates

(LOL, the NY Times story doesn't mention the PM2.5 numbers in Wuhan, or anywhere in China for that matter. It only mentions the relative numbers in NYC.)

Undertoad 04-08-2020 08:19 AM

Two days later, most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using

Overall US:
- # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766 to 60,415
- Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654 to 15,852
- Peak dates (April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) down to April 13/12
- Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18 to May 16

New speculation is that the disease resembles high altitude sickness, and docs are on their way to developing a way to fight it with the new details they have found. One possible outcome is that respirators may be the wrong approach.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 09:53 AM

John Hopkins 4-8-20
 
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases

*Infections: 1,447,466

*Deaths: 83,471

*Recovered: 308,215

-----

*World Population: 8,000,000,000









*approximate

henry quirk 04-08-2020 09:59 AM

John Hopkins 4-8-20
 
Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 1,446,557 cases worldwide; 399,929 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 83,149 deaths reported worldwide; 12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

glatt 04-08-2020 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry quirk (Post 1050420)
Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 1,446,557 cases worldwide; 399,929 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 83,149 deaths reported worldwide; 12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Wait. So the flu has 12,000 death in a slow YEAR, and Covid has 12,900 death in a MONTH, and you think they are about the same, even though the Covid deaths are occurring while we are all under lock down?

I guess we'll all know in March 2021 if Covid was worse in a year than the seasonal flu. Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong?

sexobon 04-08-2020 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1050423)
… even though the Covid deaths are occurring while we are all under lock down? ...

The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.

tw 04-08-2020 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1050424)
The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.

Wrong vaccine or wrong flu? Who do we blame?

sexobon 04-08-2020 10:53 AM

Old people.

glatt 04-08-2020 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1050424)
The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.

Good point.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 01:12 PM

12,900 death in a MONTH

That's the total deaths, not monthly.


Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong?

Will you?

Happy Monkey 04-08-2020 01:43 PM

It's only been a bit over a month since the first US COVID-19 death.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1050452)
It's only been a bit over a month since the first US COVID-19 death.

True. My time sense is flummoxed.

However...

There had been at least 23,000 U.S. deaths related to the flu as of 3-14 (the most recent count I could find from the CDC).

Flu season lasts about 13 weeks and usually ends by April, meaning the season runs from January to March.

So: 23,000 flu deaths in two and half months; 12,911 wu flu deaths in a month.

Flint 04-08-2020 03:20 PM

Since people are fascinated by comparisons to the flu, remember-- we do everything we can in response to the flu.

Every year, as a healthcare worker, you MUST get a flu vaccine or you are NOT ALLOWED to show up to work. Employee health will send you home and dock your pay. For the general public-- an awareness campaign of "get your flu vaccine" is broadcast to the public by every means possible, and you can go to the pharmacy, drugstore, many places to get the vaccine.

That's because we HAVE a vaccine for the flu. That's the tool we have.

For coronavirus, we are using the tools we have. It's the exact same thing-- the exact same response. A full-court press using the best tools available.

The best takeaway is that the flu response should be MORE robust-- we should focus MORE on hand hygiene, we should do MORE* to make sure workers are not showing up sick. If we are serious about public health, we could reduce the flu deaths.

*anything

Happy Monkey 04-08-2020 03:27 PM

The flu season starts in October, and estimated deaths as of Mar 28 are 24000-63000. So, 4000 to 10,500 per month over six months. October and November are at the low end of the curve, so even putting the whole count into the December-March four months, the range is 6,000-15,750 per month.

Note that I made that four-month example because the first two months of flu season have relatively few deaths. the 12-13000 count for COVID-19 is for its first month.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 03:43 PM

"CDC in its latest report estimated that there had been at least 23,000 deaths related to the flu as of March 14."

https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief.../24/flu-update

-----

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

Happy Monkey 04-08-2020 03:48 PM

My link was to an estimate, also from the CDC, which takes those weekly numbers as input.

Your links also reference my point that those numbers are for the 2019-2020 season; they are not solely 2020 numbers.

henry quirk 04-08-2020 04:08 PM

Your links also reference my point that those numbers are for the 2019-2020 season; they are not solely 2020 numbers.

-----

You have to note the month of (historically) greatest activity (February): not hard to imagine the bulk of those 23,000 deaths happenin' then

Anyway: I find it unseemly to argue essentially about which bug is gonna kill more people.

I'll continue, as I like, to post the John Hopkins global numbers (and the U.S. subset of those numbers and the flu comparison [both also from John Hopkins]).

Analyze or ignore as you like.

xoxoxoBruce 04-09-2020 12:42 AM

Since January, yet the WHO was tracking this local outbreak in Wuhan since November.

Clodfobble 04-09-2020 12:54 PM

We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:

Undertoad 04-09-2020 03:45 PM

Sweden did not implement a lockdown. They have been considered the world's guinea pig in what might happen if you just go about your business

It's beginning to look like that was a mistake... compared to next door Norway which did lock down.

I do not believe this graph includes today's numbers...

Sweden... 721 new cases, 112 new deaths

Norway... 144 new cases, 7 new deaths

http://cellar.org/img/swedennorway20200409.jpg

But then there's the long run. Their goal was to reach herd immunity quickly. Let's see how it works out for them...

Flint 04-09-2020 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 1050521)
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:

Are your schools still open?? :sniff:

My kids' school closed like a month ago and it's going to stay closed for the rest of the year.

Griff 04-09-2020 04:26 PM

Our Swedish friends are super defensive about this. They do a lot of things right there but this looks like a mistake. They tried to isolate their old-timers but it maybe isn't working. It seems reasonable that building herd immunity could work and maybe long term it will but right now that's an ugly graph.

BigV 04-09-2020 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 1050521)
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:

I am very sad to hear this news Clodfobble. I do not have anything profound to say. I am full of sadness at almost every turn.

Clodfobble 04-09-2020 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flint (Post 1050541)
Are your schools still open?? :sniff:



My kids' school closed like a month ago and it's going to stay closed for the rest of the year.

Oh goodness, no, we haven't had classes since before spring break. Admin emailed parents about the death ahead of time, and will be reading a prepared announcement to the kids during their first period Zoom on Monday. But we had families self-isolating even before schools shut down because they worked at Dell and were exposed to a contractor from India who tested positive after returning home, plus one of the very first confirmed cases in Austin was an extracurricular teacher at our school. (No idea if this kid was connected to him, but for his sake I hope not--the teacher didn't show symptoms until school was already out and he doesn't deserve to go through life shouldering that kind of guilt.)

tw 04-09-2020 08:29 PM

I don't know about the so many liberal art majors. But I took classes only to learn something. What do they do? Do they get their tuition money back? Do they get a half credit for the course? In the courses I took, all that information was necessary for the next hundred level classes.

DanaC 04-10-2020 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flint (Post 1050466)
Since people are fascinated by comparisons to the flu, remember-- we do everything we can in response to the flu.

Every year, as a healthcare worker, you MUST get a flu vaccine or you are NOT ALLOWED to show up to work. Employee health will send you home and dock your pay. For the general public-- an awareness campaign of "get your flu vaccine" is broadcast to the public by every means possible, and you can go to the pharmacy, drugstore, many places to get the vaccine.

That's because we HAVE a vaccine for the flu. That's the tool we have.

For coronavirus, we are using the tools we have. It's the exact same thing-- the exact same response. A full-court press using the best tools available.

The best takeaway is that the flu response should be MORE robust-- we should focus MORE on hand hygiene, we should do MORE* to make sure workers are not showing up sick. If we are serious about public health, we could reduce the flu deaths.

*anything

This! This a thousand times.

It has been a constant source of frustration to me that standard absence management systems in most major companies inexorably lead to people attending work when ill -

Points based systems and 3 strikes and you lose your bonus type systems - regardless of whether all those absences were legitimate or not.

So - maybe you hurt back and have a couple of days off work, then a couple months later you catch a stomach bug - and then when flu season hits and you end up with a mild to moderate case of flu, do you call in sick to protect your colleagues, and in doing so potentially face a disciplinary warning and loss of your annual bonus - or, do you take lemsip or other flu meds to alleviate the worst of the symptoms and struggle on through the week til you can rest at the weekend?

We are so blase about seasonal flu, yet it kills thousands of people every year - and we just pass it around the office soldiering through the week with very little thought to how that virus may affect one of the people we pass it to, or the people they pass it to.

Griff 04-10-2020 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 1050521)
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:

damn

DanaC 04-10-2020 07:32 AM

Damn that is so sad. 8th grader is what, 13-14?


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