My governor just told us all that June 10th is the earliest we will be free to travel.
|
He's a Democrat AND a doctor; so, he has to one-up everyone else.
|
Here's a nicely written article that looks at the pros and cons of wearing facemasks, non-medical masks in particular, in public. It comes as the CDC considers the overall value of adding the practice to its guidelines:
|
Quote:
|
Does anyone have insight into what's happening in Florida? Are they depending on local response?
|
China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
Quote:
This thing was a mystery for far too long because of those fuckers. They even continue to lie today. The world is left to clean up their mess. Chinese government is asshoe. |
Quote:
|
Of course China lied. They're using 5000 funerary urns per day above normal use. Or were.
That being said, deaths in NYC passed the 1000 mark. https://apnews.com/57ed90189a682fff96b25e7e1805facf |
Quote:
With the video doctor's peers; however, not so much: Quote:
The disparity between the video doc and other prominent docs is also disconcerting. It'll be interesting to see what lessons are learned and by whom. |
Quote:
emphasis mine if you're doing it wrong, it's gonna be wrong. As for dead horses, the doctor in the first video stressed that the purpose of wearing a mask was to help the wearer become alert to the unconscious habit of touching one's face and to stop doing it. so if you're doing it, touching your face either because you're wearing a mask or because you don't have a mask to help you become aware that you're touching your face, you're still not helping yourself by touching your face and the mask is irrelevant. I suppose if the mask makes you touch your face *more*, that's a problem, but maybe you're just not using the right mask. Everybody says stop touching your face. If a mask helps accomplish this, great. Pockets work too--until you take your hand from your pocket to touch your face. The current news that masks maybe/probably help reduce transmission of the disease FROM asymptomatic carriers is good news in addition to any face touching reductions masks may facilitate. |
|
I saw this today...
Quote:
Don't count asymptomatic who have tested positive or not tested? Hmm, more suspicion on their numbers. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
Quote:
https://www.washtenaw.org/3108/Cases...0W0E4r0lv0Bkp0 48197 and 48198 are the zips for Ypsilanti and cover the poorest areas in the county. |
You can see hope on this map
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html In the middle of the page, second map down is "Where cases are rising fastest". The places it hit first and people went into harder lockdown mode are turning light pink. Seattle, SF, Brooklyn, and here in PA, Montgomery County and Chester County. Here, new rates are taking longer than a week to double. Hopefully this means the curve has changed in these locations. |
Quote:
|
Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000
|
Quote:
|
My current case load of kids includes 3 moms who are home health aides. These are very poor people who are pulling extra shifts because folks with resources are sitting home. We have the poor serving the old and infirm. I'm a supporter of keeping folks out of nursing homes if at all possible but this isn't going to go well.
|
My local example.
On 3/29, I noted: Quote:
Rich folk Lower Merion cases: 123. This area is doubling roughly every 8-9 days. Working class Norristown cases: 12. The area is doubling roughly every 3 days. |
Quote:
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...und-the-clock/ |
OK I need to get a Post subscription to fully understand quickly breaking items. That was the Post's analysis, not a re-estimate by authorities.
|
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I don't know where they get data or who they are but the chart is interesting breaking things down by million population. |
Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using
Overall US: - # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766 - Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654 - Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged - Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18 |
Much better trajectory!
|
Quote:
That might be worth remembering later. |
Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers
|
Quote:
So what happened when 'remain at home' orders are removed? A majority still do not have antibodies to protect them. And then, weeks later, many more are infected? And then, two weeks after that, those curves start climbing again? Predictions do not discuss what will happen once everyone no longer remains isolated at home. Over 60% of us must suffer this virus and create antibodies before this pandemic ends. |
Quote:
|
1 Attachment(s)
|
|
That BBC article also discusses, on 27 March, the cruise ship Zaandam. That ship and the other mentioned ship, Rotterdam, remain adjacent and docked in Fort Lauderdale.
Some cruise ships are still operating. |
Quote:
NY Times: New Research Links Air Pollution to Higher Coronavirus Death Rates (LOL, the NY Times story doesn't mention the PM2.5 numbers in Wuhan, or anywhere in China for that matter. It only mentions the relative numbers in NYC.) |
Two days later, most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using
Overall US: - # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766 to 60,415 - Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654 to 15,852 - Peak dates (April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) down to April 13/12 - Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18 to May 16 New speculation is that the disease resembles high altitude sickness, and docs are on their way to developing a way to fight it with the new details they have found. One possible outcome is that respirators may be the wrong approach. |
John Hopkins 4-8-20
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases
*Infections: 1,447,466 *Deaths: 83,471 *Recovered: 308,215 ----- *World Population: 8,000,000,000 *approximate |
John Hopkins 4-8-20
Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 1,446,557 cases worldwide; 399,929 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 8, 2020. Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year. Deaths COVID-19: Approximately 83,149 deaths reported worldwide; 12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020. Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year. |
Quote:
I guess we'll all know in March 2021 if Covid was worse in a year than the seasonal flu. Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong? |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Old people.
|
Quote:
|
12,900 death in a MONTH
That's the total deaths, not monthly. Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong? Will you? |
It's only been a bit over a month since the first US COVID-19 death.
|
Quote:
However... There had been at least 23,000 U.S. deaths related to the flu as of 3-14 (the most recent count I could find from the CDC). Flu season lasts about 13 weeks and usually ends by April, meaning the season runs from January to March. So: 23,000 flu deaths in two and half months; 12,911 wu flu deaths in a month. |
Since people are fascinated by comparisons to the flu, remember-- we do everything we can in response to the flu.
Every year, as a healthcare worker, you MUST get a flu vaccine or you are NOT ALLOWED to show up to work. Employee health will send you home and dock your pay. For the general public-- an awareness campaign of "get your flu vaccine" is broadcast to the public by every means possible, and you can go to the pharmacy, drugstore, many places to get the vaccine. That's because we HAVE a vaccine for the flu. That's the tool we have. For coronavirus, we are using the tools we have. It's the exact same thing-- the exact same response. A full-court press using the best tools available. The best takeaway is that the flu response should be MORE robust-- we should focus MORE on hand hygiene, we should do MORE* to make sure workers are not showing up sick. If we are serious about public health, we could reduce the flu deaths. *anything |
The flu season starts in October, and estimated deaths as of Mar 28 are 24000-63000. So, 4000 to 10,500 per month over six months. October and November are at the low end of the curve, so even putting the whole count into the December-March four months, the range is 6,000-15,750 per month.
Note that I made that four-month example because the first two months of flu season have relatively few deaths. the 12-13000 count for COVID-19 is for its first month. |
"CDC in its latest report estimated that there had been at least 23,000 deaths related to the flu as of March 14."
https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief.../24/flu-update ----- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm |
My link was to an estimate, also from the CDC, which takes those weekly numbers as input.
Your links also reference my point that those numbers are for the 2019-2020 season; they are not solely 2020 numbers. |
Your links also reference my point that those numbers are for the 2019-2020 season; they are not solely 2020 numbers.
----- You have to note the month of (historically) greatest activity (February): not hard to imagine the bulk of those 23,000 deaths happenin' then Anyway: I find it unseemly to argue essentially about which bug is gonna kill more people. I'll continue, as I like, to post the John Hopkins global numbers (and the U.S. subset of those numbers and the flu comparison [both also from John Hopkins]). Analyze or ignore as you like. |
Since January, yet the WHO was tracking this local outbreak in Wuhan since November.
|
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:
|
Sweden did not implement a lockdown. They have been considered the world's guinea pig in what might happen if you just go about your business
It's beginning to look like that was a mistake... compared to next door Norway which did lock down. I do not believe this graph includes today's numbers... Sweden... 721 new cases, 112 new deaths Norway... 144 new cases, 7 new deaths http://cellar.org/img/swedennorway20200409.jpg But then there's the long run. Their goal was to reach herd immunity quickly. Let's see how it works out for them... |
Quote:
My kids' school closed like a month ago and it's going to stay closed for the rest of the year. |
Our Swedish friends are super defensive about this. They do a lot of things right there but this looks like a mistake. They tried to isolate their old-timers but it maybe isn't working. It seems reasonable that building herd immunity could work and maybe long term it will but right now that's an ugly graph.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
I don't know about the so many liberal art majors. But I took classes only to learn something. What do they do? Do they get their tuition money back? Do they get a half credit for the course? In the courses I took, all that information was necessary for the next hundred level classes.
|
Quote:
It has been a constant source of frustration to me that standard absence management systems in most major companies inexorably lead to people attending work when ill - Points based systems and 3 strikes and you lose your bonus type systems - regardless of whether all those absences were legitimate or not. So - maybe you hurt back and have a couple of days off work, then a couple months later you catch a stomach bug - and then when flu season hits and you end up with a mild to moderate case of flu, do you call in sick to protect your colleagues, and in doing so potentially face a disciplinary warning and loss of your annual bonus - or, do you take lemsip or other flu meds to alleviate the worst of the symptoms and struggle on through the week til you can rest at the weekend? We are so blase about seasonal flu, yet it kills thousands of people every year - and we just pass it around the office soldiering through the week with very little thought to how that virus may affect one of the people we pass it to, or the people they pass it to. |
Quote:
|
Damn that is so sad. 8th grader is what, 13-14?
|
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:11 AM. |
Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.