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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

henry quirk 03-17-2020 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048601)
I understand the reflexive anti-expert instinct, I'm a generalist myself. I'll build a house, raise some animals, or tend a garden but for something like this I want credentials.

I'm not anti-expert, I'm anti-panic.

Undertoad 03-17-2020 01:18 PM

Anti-panic stats scientist weighs in

Quote:

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.
...
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. ... Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

Happy Monkey 03-17-2020 01:42 PM

Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.

henry quirk 03-17-2020 02:01 PM

Here ya go, Griff...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048663)

...a credentialed SOB

henry quirk 03-17-2020 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1048665)
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.

Examples, please.

monster 03-17-2020 02:23 PM

I'm concerned about the UK isolating the over 70s. I feel -in addition to all the obvious things- they might be vulnerable to tricksters coming to their door masked, pretending to be offering aid.... :/

Griff 03-17-2020 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048663)

This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.

henry quirk 03-17-2020 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048669)
This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.

I agree, it's a useful piece, but not cuz it comes from an expert. It's useful cuz, like the piece I linked, it's chockablock with common sense, a commodity that's becomin' quite rare in the public sphere.

Griff 03-17-2020 08:55 PM

March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point

Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.

henry quirk 03-17-2020 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048681)
March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point

Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.

March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?

March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?

March 17th: Why are some good people douchebags?

Let's see national progressive radio tackle those.

xoxoxoBruce 03-17-2020 11:48 PM

If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.

Griff 03-18-2020 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry quirk (Post 1048687)
March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?

Because it is limited by our personal experience and the narratives we run in our own heads to try to make sense of the world.

Quote:

March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?
Because sometimes delaying action kills people in the real world. We have to use the best information and judgement we can lay our hands on in those moments. It could be wrong but we attempted to use reason not rhetoric which is generally better.

Quote:

March 17th: Why are some good people douchebags?
Because people are fallible and honestly don't know what is happening in others' heads.

henry quirk 03-18-2020 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 1048703)
If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.

Have I suggested anyone ignore anything?

tw 03-18-2020 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1048665)
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.

We know that something like 60 to 70% of the population probably must suffer infection before this pandemic subsides. So how long should schools remain closed?

CDC had been advising all national school supervisors about every other day based upon the best known science. Latest science suggests that schools may need be closed anywhere from 5 weeks to well into the summer.

Then suddenly, the White House ordered CDC to stop briefing the nation's school supervisors. Facts necessary to make an informed decision are too alarming. White House refuses to admit why they ordered such briefing terminated. Exactly what one does to create panic.

85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management. Since the president is clearly incompetent, then people who are been taking actions and implementing standards (therefore are averting panic) are governors and large city mayors. That is where and why panic has been averted. Fortunately they have addressed this problem. An incompetent and corrupt president also never once ran a successful company. 85% of all problems directly traceable to one who only makes decisions based upon his reelection.

Yesterday, in a news briefing, reporters noted a sharp change in this president. He was subdued and not bombastic. Resulting in an interesting change in the tone of reporters questions. It was more like a press conference conducted by previous presidents. The Don did very little talking. Others (educated and more responsible) did most of the talking. So facts instead of attacks were more in evidence.

Apparently this president, who was denying this pandemic until recently, is finally hearing even what his extremist staff has been saying. And who has almost nothing to say? Man that Trump assigned the job to - VP Pence. Which is good. He has nothing informed to offer. Best thing he can do to avert panic is to say nothing.

So the question. Who in the White House ordered the CDC silent? When we most need to know facts.

How long does this virus last on surfaces? Are infected people immune from a future infection? How long is someone contagious before symptoms appear? Does this virus spread airborne? How many are contagious without any symptoms (which means different tests to determine anti-bodies)? Is there a second strain of Covid-19 as indicated by some who reportedly got this virus again?

Two week quarantines were never to stop this pandemic. Since America did virtually nothing for two months, then these quarantines are necessary so that test kits, protective gear, and plans can be made. For example, we know two big manufacturers of face masks did nothing to increase production until after even the stock market was crashing. Only then did they have a response from government that this infection would be addressed. Because Trump said there were only five infections. And he expected that number to drop to one next week.

Of course he lied. He can't stop himself. Knowing his long history may have also averted panic. Educated people simply assume anything he says is probably a lie.

Korea defined a death rate of 3.6%. Koreans addressed this problem up front. Having performed a quarter of a million tests. Statistics there should be more accurate. Especially since Korea (per capita) did 700% more than America has. (Both countries observed similar infection rates at the same time.)

China says a death rate in Wuhan was, at one point, as high as 20%. But a death rate in the rest of Hubei province remained below 5%. Death rates among passengers on the Grand Princess are useless. Since that ship was kept out of San Francisco until test kits were delivered. How many kits? They could only find 45 kits to test about 4200 passengers and crew. Numbers were subjected to White House approval.

Only thing that is averting panic is latest information - not suppressed and subverted by a president who has lied every day of his adult life.

henry quirk 03-18-2020 09:21 AM

we attempted to use reason

Don't attempt: do.

This is all I'm suggesting, to much resistance and mischaracterization, here and elsewhere.

Luce 03-18-2020 01:52 PM

When you don't give your employees PTO, they kill your granny.

https://apnews.com/7994b669d63c73db4d3f73d444e53b25

Luce 03-18-2020 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry quirk (Post 1048723)
we attempted to use reason

Don't attempt: do.

This is all I'm suggesting, to much resistance and mischaracterization, here and elsewhere.



Hard to use logic and reason when data is being intentionally withheld.

xoxoxoBruce 03-18-2020 02:10 PM

Not when the information that does exist matches your preconceived notions.

tw 03-18-2020 08:06 PM

Numerous cruise ships are now anchored and clustered together at sea going nowhere. A list of some clustered together in various locations off and east of Florida. Independence of the Seas, Sky Princess, Regal Princess, Crown Princess, Symphony of the Seas, Oasis of the Seas, Harmony of the Seas, Mariner of the Seas, Empress of the Seas, Celebrity Reflection, Niewuw Statenda, Disney Fantasy, Disney Dream, Celebrity Equinox, Celebrity Edge, Msc Seaside, Msc Meravirgiia, Msc Armonia, Carnival Fascination, Carnival Horizon, Scarlet Lady, and Norwegian Encore.

Sitting off Tampa are Celebrity Infinity, Celebrity Silhouette, Celebrity Summit, Brilliance of the Seas, and Rhapsody of the Seas.

Such big seas with nowhere to go.

Gravdigr 03-19-2020 11:09 AM

Fuck COVID-19.

And you, yeah, you, you panic-buying fuckers. Stop buying my toilet paper!

Undertoad 03-19-2020 12:19 PM

Listened to Dr Drew podcast yesterday, in which he repeatedly stated that the US is doing the right things, social distancing is the right move, and everything will be okay. The Italian deaths are due to Italy not being prepared, and the US is very well prepared and taking the correct steps

His angry take was that the media should be thrown down the well for the levels of panic they have encouraged

His opinion was that if the number of cases is less than six figures at the end of the week, we'll be fine and if they are below 20,000 things are awesome

His opinion was that hospital overwhelming may happen but will be entirely localized in outbursts

Drew survived H1N1, so you know he is badass already.

~

There is a new treatment for this, "chloroquine" which they say is being proven effective

China is claiming no new cases today - but don't trust China, China is asshoe (see date at bottom of the tweet)

http://cellar.org/img/whochina.jpg

Griff 03-19-2020 01:04 PM

The Pentagon likely has a shit-ton of chloroquine (sp?) stock piled since it's a common anti-malarial. I took it in Costa Rica years ago.

Griff 03-19-2020 01:06 PM

I watched Trump's news conference today, he's doing much better.

I may have to go back on Gin and Tonics after a 12 year hiatus...

lumberjim 03-19-2020 01:09 PM

I had a really bad chest cold in December, I think. I'm seeing things that say it may have already been here as early as November. Hope so.
Maybe wishful thinking, but it was a brutal cold that took a good week to take hold and 3 to go away. I was hocking up lung cookies for a solid 2 weeks. Most of the people here had something like it.

lumberjim 03-19-2020 01:12 PM

does Quinine work too? You can get that in Canada Dry Bitter Lemon. Which goes nicely with Gin.

Undertoad 03-19-2020 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048827)
China is claiming no new cases today

Correction WUHAN China is reporting no new cases. All of China reports 34 new cases.

monster 03-19-2020 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lumberjim (Post 1048833)
I had a really bad chest cold in December, I think. I'm seeing things that say it may have already been here as early as November. Hope so.
Maybe wishful thinking, but it was a brutal cold that took a good week to take hold and 3 to go away. I was hocking up lung cookies for a solid 2 weeks. Most of the people here had something like it.

the covid cough is sposed to be dry though, right?

Undertoad 03-19-2020 01:39 PM

Drew said it was almost surely in big int'l cities soon after it broke out in Wuhan, and almost surely there are people who had it and didn't know, and this is part of the immunity building up

He said you just listen to Anthony Fauci's actual facts and those are what you need to know. He worked directly with Fauci during AIDS in the 90s

Flint 03-19-2020 02:01 PM

My father once knew a man!

this line always gets stuck in my head

tw 03-19-2020 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048835)
Correction WUHAN China is reporting no new cases. All of China reports 34 new cases.

However they have threatened all new reporters by even throwing out all Wall Street Journal, NY Times, and Washington Post reporters. Apparently because those reporters demonstrated some serious under reporting.

But the WHO is not being critical. So it appears they have finally got something under control. It could just be that 60% to 70% were infected and recovered already.

Necessary are test (current not being done) to determine who had the virus (now only have antibodies). So much science remains to be done.

Meanwhile, two classic case studies need consideration. Italy was about as prepared as anyone else. Even quarantines in North Italy failed to stop a spread to the south. (Strangely it did not spread North into Austria.) Something more is at play here. They have asked for and received Doctors from China to visit and advise.

Other example is Japan that had few cases. Again, what was unique in Japan? Some suggest a population that was properly trained during Sars and Mers potential pandemic. But that is only speculation. Something to learn from those two extreme examples.

Clearly not explained is why so many top doctors and other health industry officials in Iran constantly claimed Covid-19 was only a another cold virus. And not a problem. Their total denial, even after so many top doctors and Health minister were sickened, reeks of leaders driven by religion instead of politics or science.

Italy has a highest illness per capita number. Significantly higher than China. But Iran may be the world's sickest nation - or quickly getting there.

xoxoxoBruce 03-19-2020 11:11 PM

1 Attachment(s)
The Italians are touchy feely, the Austrians are not, neither are the Japanese. That may explain why the impact varied.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048614)
Positive: Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson are out of the hospital and recovering.


monster 03-19-2020 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 1048849)
The Italians are touchy feely, the Austrians are not, neither are the Japanese. That may explain why the impact varied.

So Weinstein and all the other gropers and pussy-grabbers are doomed? I'll take it.

xoxoxoBruce 03-19-2020 11:27 PM

That's no way to speak of your president. ;)

BigV 03-20-2020 12:16 AM

Field hospital opens on the soccer field just north of Seattle.

Griff 03-20-2020 07:47 AM

That's pretty real.

Undertoad 03-20-2020 09:51 AM

After combing through their data, 99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

nearly 50% of dead had three other conditions

high blood pressure seems to be the worst co-illness - and diabetes and heart disease

Clodfobble 03-20-2020 09:54 AM

We've just gotten word from the school that the teachers will be taking the first week to develop lesson plans, and online programs won't start for real until the 30th. They clearly anticipate this is going to continue through the end of the school year.

Meanwhile, I anticipate that all their summer camps will be cancelled and I'll have to keep up some version of homeschool to keep them busy through the summer. I've pulled a bunch of resources and made a homeschooling schedule for them that will cover the coming week, at least.

On the one hand, it sucks, but on the other, I think it will be really interesting to see how many parents, once forced to do it, decide that homeschooling is actually a better option for their socially anxious kids and just stay home even when the schools do re-open.

BigV 03-20-2020 01:30 PM

A lot of parents are coming to the realization that the teacher wasn't the problem

Undertoad 03-20-2020 01:35 PM

:lol:

Griff 03-20-2020 02:08 PM

Burn!

tw 03-20-2020 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048873)
After combing through their data, 99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

nearly 50% of dead had three other conditions

And that did not exist in other nations? It is called 'cherry picking'. Ignore other facts that do not coincide with a conclusion. Yes, that might be true. But if that alone was relevant, then it is also true is all other nations.

Undertoad 03-20-2020 04:03 PM

Those fucking Italians, having the nerve to only study the statistics from Italy

DanaC 03-20-2020 04:19 PM

So - about half our staff are at home now - some isolating, some home working, many left today because they are parents and schools have now closed. The number of people actually able to work from home is still small - they're testing a virtual call centre for the rapid crew, and 3 of our Specialist Team are trialing new laptops and company mobiles - they are in process of building our systems with a view to moving all the specialists to home working but we dont have a date for that yet - optimistic guess is end of next week.

I'm in a high risk category (asthmatic) and also smoke (trying hard to cut down) - advice for my category is social distancing to the degree I am able, and to make decision on how strict that shold be based on my own particular circs (how severe is the condition, how under control, feeling otherwise healthy? etc). Work have made it clear anybody in a high risk category can go home and self isolate until homeworking is available, but...we are so thin on the ground. There already arent enough of us to deal with stuff - and now it not a good time for someone to have a disaster at home and not be able to access help.

We're doing what we can to minimise the risk - hand sanitisers dotted about, cleaning staff coming round disinfecting everything through the day, strict zoning - you stay in your area don't go to other areas to talk to friends, use the chat system - people spreading out more since there are more empty desks etc.

The team leaders are providing snacks and treats to boost morale and the atmosphere is a weird mix of fear and dread with humour and good cheer

...............

Meanwhile - the two Js came back from Hanoi for a 3 week visit to be there for the birth of Janet's first grandchild - and now they cant go back. Their current tenancy is due to cease in 2 days and their new tenancy due to start - and they are not there to move their stuff. More importantly - their 2 dogs (Carrpt's bro, Merlot and his new little Vietnamese brother Biscuit) are now semi-permanent residents of the boarding kennel - at least for the foreseeable future.

Had a scary 24 hours where the kennels didnt respond to their email and facebook messages - but they have now made contact and are absolutely fine with the dogs remaining there for £400 a month. They sent pictures and both dogs look happy and healthy.

..............

Meanwhile - my SiL is head of the community nursing team in the village doing home visits etc - they only just got masks.

------------

Meanwhile - My eldest niece, Amelia and her boyfriend, currently working windfarms in Australia have been laid off and can't come home to the UK - they are driving their camper van to a remote camp site and waiting it out.

..........

Mum is still weakened by her recent operation- gall bladder removed - and more so by 4 months of almost zero fat diet while waiting for the op because even a small amount of fat could have triggered it into an emergency at any time. Was only supposed to be a 5 week wait but got cancelled and then the Christmas season was in the middle of that and so on - eventually had the op 1st feb by which time she was down to a little over 6 stone (about 88 pounds)

She is social distancing as much as possible - we mainly only see each other for dog walks or dropping stuff off atthe door. can't fully do it though, as some stuff needs us both in the car so when we do that I wear a decorators mask to try and lessen her risk.

Shopping is a nightmare. Selfish bastards stockpiling for a possible future shortage and leaving care workers and socially isolated elderly unable to get what they need. The advice is to have enough to last 2 weeks - but people are having to shop every couple of days because they can only get a few things - the shops get stock and whole sections of essential items have been emptied within an hour or so.

Supermarkets are doing what they can - bringing in stuff like the first hour of the day reserved for elderly and vulnerable - but there are stories of young healthy people going in pushing old people out of the way to get to stuff.

Home shopping systems are crashing and people cant get delivery slots at all or not for a month and even then half the stuff you order is out of stock by the time you hit the checkout button

There are enough food and necessary goods in the supply chain, but people panic buying and acting like selfish cunts is overloading it. This is before we have massive numbers self isolating and needing to shop online and before restaurants and pubs shut increasing home cooked food and therefore food shopping by several percent

People are also looking out for each other though - there's some good to be found as well.

Strange days - just generally kind of weirded out.


Enough rambling from me. I hope you all are safe and well and remain so.

X D

Clodfobble 03-20-2020 04:38 PM

Glad to hear from you, Dana. Hope your mom recovers back to full health soon! For some reason I have an image of you trying to force-feed her avocados to put the pounds back on... :)

glatt 03-21-2020 06:46 AM

Blood donations are way down and it’s becoming a problem.

On Tuesday, I got an email from the local blood donor services director, because I am coordinating a blood drive in early May at my church.

It was sent to all blood drive hosts and was a plea to not cancel any more drives. He reported that 50 drives had been cancelled that week to the tune of about 900 units of blood not being collected locally. He didn’t explain why, but I assumed businesses that were closing were just canceling all scheduled events, including blood drives they planned onsite.

So if you want to help during this crisis, and feel brave enough to get out there, I’m certain there is a drive going on near you this weekend and they could use your blood. Do a google search with your location. The Red Cross probably has some.

Around here, in response to Covid, they do the health screening of donors when you show up to weed out anyone with a fever before they sign in.

Covid19 patients don’t need blood, but the people who are sick enough to need blood are still out there.

DanaC 03-21-2020 01:25 PM

:) Thanks, Clod - yeah, she is getting there. That is quite a funny mental image.

@ glatt - I went to the NHS Give Blood page - started going down the criteria lists and it says dont give blood if you have ever injected, or been injected with drugs even if it was a long time ago, and even if it was only once

....oops. It was really long time ago - like decades ago ... but it sounds like that bars me from joining the blood drive :(

Undertoad 03-21-2020 03:18 PM

in mask news

taiwan is sending 100,000 masks to the US
france intercepted and took a shipment of 130,000 masks before it got to UK

message to taiwan shipping: please look out for french boats

Gravdigr 03-21-2020 03:33 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 70074

DanaC 03-21-2020 06:02 PM

lol

Flint 03-21-2020 10:04 PM

We're re-using N95 masks five times, each worker is issued one and stores it in a tupperware container with the straps outside the lid.

We've just implemented a protocol for shooting portable chest x-rays through the door (ER patient rooms have a glass door).

Clodfobble 03-21-2020 10:14 PM

I'm sorry, Flint. I'm grateful for folks like you, doing the impossible job as best you can.

Flint 03-21-2020 10:32 PM

Thank you. To clarify-- I don't come into clinical contact with patients, but I do support the department running smoothly, and since it's under stress and we haven't technically been given guidance on cancelling outpatient imaging procedures, I'm delaying pulling the "work from home" card.

My work friends, the people I see every day, are the ones that are really in the firing line. I'm there in solidarity, to be honest. So I've quarantined myself to work (the minimum exposure possible) and my house. I haven't been in contact with anyone else...in 10 days? My ex is keeping the kids.

Flint 03-21-2020 11:25 PM

UPDATE SINCE EARLIER: I live on the coast, a tourist area, and I'm now learning that we're overrun with people coming in from out of town. My town and the next one over are drafting up an emergency declaration but do not have the authority to impose restrictions on hotels, etc. until the governor declares restrictions on the whole state.

I live in the one that's in between Washington and California.

Griff 03-22-2020 10:44 AM

Man, that sucks. People need to go home.

I have an aunt fighting cancer she's supposed to get radiation 5x per week for 6 weeks. Talk about terrible timing.

sexobon 03-22-2020 12:31 PM

The plot thickens.

FEMA administrator says more masks are being shipped from stockpile amid shortage

Ah yes, the national stockpile.

Undertoad 03-22-2020 12:37 PM

It's true. The national stockpile is 75 million masks.

But they are just for emergencies

sexobon 03-22-2020 01:06 PM

Good thing the Democrats reminded us about those go to war supplies and it wasn't politically incorrect to do so.

Undertoad 03-22-2020 01:27 PM

Why is Japan an "outlier" with fewer cases than everyone else surrounding China? Nobody seems to know yet. Are they about to experience the crush, or did cultural practices stop it before it could get going? It's all just guessing at this point.

Beestie 03-22-2020 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1049075)
Why is Japan an "outlier" with fewer cases than everyone else surrounding China? Nobody seems to know yet. Are they about to experience the crush, or did cultural practices stop it before it could get going? It's all just guessing at this point.

No, Japan was one of the first countries to close schools and mandate social isolation. I think their national will to band together and accept draconian measures is a result of the earthquake and tsunami from a few years ago. There is usually a political delay between the acceptance that a certain measure is required and when it is mandated whereas in Japan, that delay is maybe 20 minutes.

My default TV station is NHK (an English speaking 24-hour channel from Tokyo) and I've been hearing first hand what the national temperament in Japan is. Japan ain't effing around - they locked down early.

And while I don't post here often, I think about you knuckleheads a lot and hope everyone in cellardom is ok and makes it through this nonsense.

monster 03-22-2020 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster (Post 1048850)
So Weinstein and all the other gropers and pussy-grabbers are doomed? I'll take it.


most likely entirely unrelated.... Placido Domingo*

*used fox link to show no political bias :D


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