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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

Griff 03-09-2020 06:54 PM

1 Attachment(s)
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sexobon 03-09-2020 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
Intentionally misquoted to misrepresent the point:

Quotes are accurate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
What was posted:

A difference without a distinction.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
Does not matter if people are contagious after symptoms are gone.

Illogical.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048172)
Facts that say why a quarantine cannot solve the problem.

Facts say quarantine can mitigate the problem (short term solution).

For problems such as this, there are often two solutions: a short term solution and a long term solution. The short term solution uses what is immediately available to make the best of a situation and reduce obstructive emotions (e.g. apprehension, fear, panic...etc.). The long tern solution is finding the definitive way to solve the problem.

But then I have the medical training, field and hospital experience, leadership training an experience to see the big picture. I can also separate medicine from politics.

I'm delighted to see that your opinions aren't prejudiced by any knowledge on the subject.

tw 03-09-2020 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048173)
That's why I said we need to take sides on whether the panic is worse, or the deaths.

We know information averts panic. Information from sources of integrity. CDC cannot even say anything without Pence's approval. That is a formula for distrust. An extreme example is panic.

If Trump wanted honesty, then the Surgeon General was doing what Pence is now doing. Trump does not want us to be informed.

We need facts. Answers to four essential questions (and a fifth one) are not provided. A president is obviously lying about Covid-19 - constantly. He is a prescription for panic.

What is a greatest threat to the Covid-19 virus? An informed public who then knows what to do.

Misinformation even recommends drinking diluted bleach. And using skin creams to block Covid-19.

Panic created by misinformation and lies is exactly what Russia wants. Some early indications are Russian sources (ie Sputnik radio broadcasts) are promoting such misinformation including those cures.

We need trusted facts. That cannot happen when the president lies constantly. He even said Covid-19 is a lie promoted by his enemies. Not his "competitors" or people with different information sources. He has a Nixon attitude. "Enemies". So creating panic is to this president's advantage. It can get him reelected. How curious. Hitler did same to obtain power.

tw 03-09-2020 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1048178)
Facts say quarantine can mitigate the problem (short term solution).

That is not the point of that quoted sentence. It was quoted to intentionally misrepresent the point. Limbaugh and Fox News do that often.

Previous post explains, but again, the point. You intentionally ignore the point, again.

Irrelevant that a quarantine is part of a solution. That clearly was not the point. And was intentionally ignored. Obviously, quarantines are too little too late when people, without any symptoms and who cannot be tested (due to no test kits and a three day delay), were contagious and spreading this virus for at least a week.

Nice if you addressed the point. And not post distortions that you have now posted twice. Curious. That is the behavior of a Trump supporter.

sexobon 03-09-2020 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1048180)
I know exactly what heíd tell you, lies. He was no different from any other dwellar in the Cellar, they were all extremists. I tried to run the thread properly, by the book, but they fought me at every turn. The other posters wanted to walk around with their emotions hanging out, thatís all right, let them. Take the low road, tit for tat, no more, no less. But they encouraged the others to go around scoffing at me, and spreading wild rumors about talking in circles and the old Mission Accomplished refrain. I was to blame for Undertoad's incompetence and poor judgement. Sexobon was the honest poster, but not TW. Ah, but the quotes, thatís, thatís where I had them, they laughed at me and made jokes, but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt, and with geometric logic, that a duplicitous quote in the Coronavirus Thread did exist, and Iíve had reproduced that quote over a hundred times if they hadnít pulled the soapbox out from under me. I, I know now they were only trying to protect their sanity. Ö Naturally, I can only cover these things from memory. If I left anything out, why, just ask me specific questions and Iíll be glad to answer them, one by one.


glatt 03-09-2020 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048174)
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I like these charts and get what they are trying to promote. The area under the curves, which is the total number of cases, looks equal in both curves. Is the red area of the steep curve supposed to show that those patients are more likely to die because there is no room for them in the hospital?

Griff 03-09-2020 09:50 PM

Yeah if fewer old-timers are sick in the same time-frame we have the capacity to care for them. If we pretend itís not serious and fail to take precautions the body count climbs. Little Gís boss spiked a fever and left work today... at a place where the kids are unlikely to handle coughs and sneezes appropriately.

Griff 03-09-2020 10:04 PM

Lol. Just got a text from her. They were just sanitizing the hell out of a residence feeling pretty good about themselves when one of the boys ďstraight up stuck his hand in the shift managers mouth.Ē

sexobon 03-09-2020 10:08 PM

Well I hope he doesn't put it in his own mouth after that!

glatt 03-09-2020 10:08 PM

Kids will be the death of us all.

Undertoad 03-09-2020 10:13 PM

Parents call them kids, we non-parents call them disease vectors :D

sexobon 03-09-2020 10:17 PM

That's why I get my flu shot in early October. So it will have full effect by Halloween when the little disease ridden monsters are out in force.

Clodfobble 03-09-2020 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad
If the regular flu kills up to 70,000, what say let's put the over-under for this level of panic at 80,000 dead. The panic has resulted in the loss of 6 trillion dollars in valuations of public companies, and the loss of who knows how much economic activity. So a number worse than the regular flu is warranted. 80,000, place your bets.

I like the numbers game, with two caveats. One, everything I've read says flu kills around 36,000 per year in the U.S., and I think we have to go with exclusively U.S. numbers if we're talking about U.S. panic. Two, the death toll from COVID-19 may take a year or more to fully assess, because this thing is going to continue to kill people, fast or slow, until we've achieved some level of herd immunity...

That being said, I personally think over 100,000 deaths means it was a problem worth focusing on as much as we have--roughly three times the rate of the normal flu. My actual prediction is that it's going to kill over a million Americans.


Edit to add: I say this as someone who lost an uncle to the bad flu season two years ago. I don't know if it was technically his cause of death in the final paperwork, but his downturn started with a bout of flu caught at his nursing home, escalating to pneumonia, compounded by Parkinson's.

Undertoad 03-09-2020 11:28 PM

Excellent additions: US-only, I should have specified.

100,000 is a nice round number. I'm taking the under

xoxoxoBruce 03-10-2020 12:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1048135)
I don't think that the BATF does health effect studies, it's a law enforcement agency. If we're going strictly on name-of-agency criticisms, NIH might be a better match, just because it doesn't specifically have the word "disease" in its name.

NIH is getting half.


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