Somebody knows somth'in bout birth'n hurricanes
Here it comes folks. Tropical Storm #5 will hit Puerto Rico as a hurricane in only 100 hours. Anyone in Florida want to scream yet? Somebody said, "Head for the hills!" One problem. FL has no hills. RockyTop NC sounds like a good summer and fall vacation home. Or go live with The Cellar. Hurricanes never come to the Cellar... yet.
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 11/0300 UTC. T.D. FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 42.9N MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. FIVE IS WELL DEFINED AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 41W-45W.
Well, I'm not going to scream about it. Of course living in Colorado does wonders for one's blase' factor about such things.
Who needs hurricanes when you've got hackers, anyhow?
I lived in Scarolina on an island for 3 1/2 years.. when the national guard came around trying to get us to put toe tags on we just laughed and had a party. ah, the good days! salad days..
I was reading a yahoo news article yesterday about Dennis, and it said that emergency personnel were telling those people who planned to stay in the area against evacuation warnings to "write their names across their chests in waterproof ink to make identification easier".
I thought that was great.
Well, I'm not going to scream about it. Of course living in Colorado does wonders for one's blase' factor about such things.
I find it ironic that the expert on hurricanes, Dr Gray, is in Colorado.
The Tropical Meteorology Project
Meanwhile, Dennis is right on his predicted track. First to southern Ill. He should now turn sharply east to head for NC or NJ.
Dennis could have been a very destructive storm. The Carribean is ripe and warm early. There were no upper air currents to rip the roof on that storm. However just like Andrew suddenly intensified for reasons not fully understood; Dennis fizzled about 50 miles before hitting the mainland coast. Those who talk lightly about the hazards of these storms usually assume they survived a big one. If it was Dennis, then one suffered damage from what ended up being a minor hurricane. Currently no way to know that storm was not going to be destructive because we still don't understand the mechanism that so sharply intensifies or deflates these storms without warning.
I read somewhere that a person is convinced the storm will not be dangerous as long as he does not put on that toe tag. He says he can prove it. He's not dead. Amazing the religions that some people practice.
[QUOTE=marichikoWell, I'm not going to scream about it. Of course living in Colorado does wonders for one's blase' factor about such things.
I find it ironic that the expert on hurricanes, Dr Gray, is in Colorado.
The Tropical Meteorology Project
[/QUOTE]
Yeah, we got NCAR here and NOAA, and CSU has a pretty good department of study devoted to such matters. That's why the national forecasters can dispatch their predictions of doom with such sangfroid. Ain't happening here! ;)
I'm looking forward to Dennis rain all day tomorrow... he best deliver because i think one of my trees is dying.
I read somewhere that a person is convinced the storm will not be dangerous as long as he does not put on that toe tag. He says he can prove it. He's not dead. Amazing the religions that some people practice.
An ex-coworker and her family would rent a house on the beach in the Carolinas every year during hurricane season. On purpose. In the event of storm warnings they would refuse to be evacuated and would have an extra-big party at which they served Hurricanes as the beverage of choice and watch the storm approach. This included the year that the storm did hit and swept all the water out of the pool in front of the beach-side window wall of their rented home.
She was later found to be crazy. When she popped her noodle we quietly made arrangements for her to be admitted to another hospital. This is a service we cheerfully provide for our employees and their relatives.
how considerate of you.
so your first choice in case we need to notify your current co-workers?
They'll have to find me first ...
They'll have to find me first ...
And remember she's armed and knows how to use a weapon! :worried:
If you don't see me, worry.
Hey, wolf, who's the latest murder vic at your place of employ? Or has it been a relatively ho-hum summer thus far? No one dead in a basement? Come on! You guys can do it! :)
ew boy. looks like i might be moving some airplanes! emily is way the F out there and at 90 mph winds and growing, also looking at the other data, i say between rockport and port arthur tx. oh, and a cat 5 when/where it does hit. hopefully in a sparsely populated area.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.....28.59 INCHES
jeez-louise! a cat 3 already and the second major hurricane in a row. cripes! it's only freakin' july!
As with last year, been watching storms roll off Africa. Emily is just above South America at about 65 degrees W. Behind her are two more storms at about 40 W and 28 W. The second looked like it was going to be another whopper. It started to spin, then spread out (disintegrated) upon hitting the Atlantic. Meanwhile the next storm is about to roll out of Africa. It too could be Tropical Storm #6. These storms are rolling out of Africa just like they were last year. Except last year, this much 'rolling' was in August and September.
Storms continued to roll off of Africa. But few turned into tropical storms. The problem lately has been upper atmosphere winds that were (in simple terms) ripping the tops off of potential hurricanes. Meanwhile, a few did form only to turn northward before approaching the US. Latest (the first week in August) is Harvey. Currently located about 65 degree W (due south of Nova Scotia), Harvey can be see in this satellite photo. Notice potential hurricane producing storms continue to flow off of Africa:
Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, and Nate are names you will become familiar with. As Harvey continues moving off to the NW - maybe going after the Brits - a new tropical depression has already formed before even getting half way across the Atlantic. Currently around 30-35 degree W, this storm is on a slightly more southern track that should bring it closer to the US mainland next week. Have you made your plans yet for August 13?
Its now called Irene. But FL residents can take a breather. It too is headed north following the path of Tropical Storm Harvey - and maybe threaten Bermuda.
Looks like Irene is aimed right for the Cellar. It's still a tropical storm, but is expected to be upgraded to a hurricane before it hits Philadelphia on Thursday morning.
Edit: This image is hosted by NOAA, and is updated regularly. It seems to be turning more toward NYC now.
Start charging those digital video/still device batteries now, Cellarites. We'll need to see some first hand coverage.
There is an interview with Gray, the meteorologist tw mentioned, in the September Discover. He feels he had his funding cut under Clinton/Gore because of his opposition to the idea that global warming increases the severity of hurricane seasons.
I can help - I'll be somewhere around ground zero for Irene. I'm right now in lovely Raleigh NC, and am slated to leave on Saturday morning and possibly to return on Tuesday.
Unless Irene has different plans for me. Toilet Paper, dried milk, bottled water, and crackers anyone?
(Much different storm prep than the PA Snow runs that's for sure!)
How are you going to make french toast out of that?
I can help - I'll be somewhere around ground zero for Irene. I'm right now in lovely Raleigh NC, and am slated to leave on Saturday morning and possibly to return on Tuesday.
Unless Irene has different plans for me. Toilet Paper, dried milk, bottled water, and crackers anyone?
(Much different storm prep than the PA Snow runs that's for sure!)
Bah. The eye isnt even coming onshore. It's a rainstorm, ya'll.
The image I posted above is hosted by NOAA, and is updated once or twice a day. Storm seems to be turning slightly to the North now and may miss NC, DC, and Philly as it targets Long Island and New England.
We'll see...
There is an interview with Gray, the meteorologist tw mentioned, in the September Discover. He feels he had his funding cut under Clinton/Gore because of his opposition to the idea that global warming increases the severity of hurricane seasons.
Well, he should be happier now that the current administration's attitude is pretty much "anything that makes money can't be bad for the environment." Bet he'll get plenty of funding.
I can help - I'll be somewhere around ground zero for Irene. I'm right now in lovely Raleigh NC, and am slated to leave on Saturday morning and possibly to return on Tuesday.
Unless Irene has different plans for me. Toilet Paper, dried milk, bottled water, and crackers anyone?
(Much different storm prep than the PA Snow runs that's for sure!)
what? no chef-boy-r-dee? and where's the beer?
And waterproof porn. :mg:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...ON
TROPICAL STORM NATE... LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...AND A NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CENTER
NEAR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.
Try this link, let me know if it works.....
http://www.weathertap.com/satellite/SATATLIR4ANI.html
There is also a storm right off the coast of florida...forecasters say it's unlikely, but it MAY become a depression/storm once it leaves the west coast of florida and then turn north....there is also another storm in the gulf of mexico that appears from animated images from weathertap.com to be coalescing (sp) a little too much for my liking.
Possibility of two more storms slamming the gulf coast, in the midst of chaos. Feels like Dennis/Floyd.
Been watching the current tropical storms for weeks. Currently we are up to Nate. In the attached picture, Nate sits between Puerto Rico and Nova Scotia. The larger hurricane is maybe 500 miles to the NE. Notice I have also included other storms in the lower right corner. Is this a hurricane?
Katrina was a nothing the entire time it crossed the Atlantic. It only formed when it hit the Gulf Stream off of FL, made a left turn, and got into the Gulf of Mexico.
This is the problem. Surface temperatures in the Gulf have been at record levels - consistent with global warming - 85 plus degrees F. And since the temperatures are slowly getting warmer deeper every year, then hurricanes that get into the Gulf have been getting quite strong. This is not enough to prove global warming is causing more severe hurricanes. But it is why research is ongoing to better understand the process.
Andrew was a small storm that suddenly turned into a monster just as it hit the Gulf Stream. It is believed that Andrew yanked up a large warm pocket of water that suddenly charged it into a category 5 storm. It is also suspected that Katrina got same in the Gulf. Unfortuntely, last I read, we don't have data on such temperatures. Even the data buoys only monitor surface temperatures. There is much research to do in order to explain why Katrina, et al are occuring.
Whoops! While I was not looking, that little storm off the FL coast (located where Katrina got her upbringing) has suddently turned into the 16th Tropical Depression of the season. Three of them are out there in the Atlantic. The remaining names are Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. It is possible we use them all.
I was just about to post that, Tee...the storm off the eastern coast of Florida is now TD16, and will be Ophelia if she strengthens that much.
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html (NOAA IOD)
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm (NOAA Hurricane Outlook)
The 4th and 5th pictures down illustrate why we're having more hurricanes (warmer than average surface temps and lower than average wind shear = more hurricanes. But they can't tell us WHY the temps are warmer or WHY the wind shear is lower.
Nevermind that pesky Kyoto treaty.....
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm (NOAA Hurricane Outlook)
The irony of the fourth and fifth pictures in that URL - Katrina neither formed nor passed through that black box called the "hurricane development region". What has made hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico so severe is abnormal warning throughout in the northern Gulf. The URL (dated 2 Aug 2005) does not even note that area as having unusually high water temperatures.
Actually, yes it does, the fourth picture is
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images/hurricane2005-seatemps-08-02-2005.jpg, and that is the slide for high surface water temps.
??? Unless I misunderstood your post, Tee?
Actually, yes it does, the fourth picture is http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images/hurricane2005-seatemps-08-02-2005.jpg, and that is the slide for high surface water temps.
??? Unless I misunderstood your post, Tee?
Draw a horizontal line between the southern tips of FL and TX. These past few years, the Gulf of Mexico above that line (along the US Gulf coast) were reported unusually warmer and warmer earlier in the season. At least that is what I was getting from summaries. This fourth picture does not suggest that. I don't know if this fourth picture is only for short term temperatures or for seasonal temperatures. But Katrina got most of its energy from the region above that horizontal line; an area that the fourth picture says is not above normal.
I cannot provide details since some usual sources such as the US Navy Surface Temperature maps long longer are available. Ironically many sources apparently were served out of New Orleans.
Shearing and other effects (some of which are somehow related to El Nino) can make or break hurricanes. These effects tend to cycle. But one effect that is not cycling - is only getting warming - is ocean temperature. That would mean more severe hurricanes that tend to cycle with wind shear and El Nino as they get worse over the decades. Currently the relationship between global warming (ocean warming) and more severe hurricanes is only apparent; has not been definitely proven.
But again, the irony is that Katrina got its energy in locations not listed as warmer (red) on that chart. Katrina never exited in the black box described as "the hurrican development region". OK, maybe Katrina was not really the big one (gasp). Maybe we are still waiting for the really big one from that "hurricane development region" and those red (warmer) regions.
I found this animated surface temperature map. Notice the suddenly high water temperatures that preceded Katrina's visit to those areas.
Weekly Sea Surface Temperatures
The dark red areas are water that is above 30 degree C. To Americans, that is water above 86 degrees F; water that was reported elsewhere to be as much as 90 degrees F.
At one point, the water off east coast FL gets that warm. This is where Katrina suddenly became a hurricane. Suddenly because I was watching that trivial storm long before - and it remained a nothing until it got to the east FL coast.
Based only upon those maps, then one could speculate that Katrina took a lot of heat out of the Gulf.
And now we have Tropical Storm PHILIPPE located in the Atlantic due east of the windward antillies and Carribean Sea. But why stop there? Sitting for a long time NE of Puerto Rico over a hot spot was what we now call Tropical Depression 18. Having moved westward towards the Bahamas, it is targeting the center of the Gulf of Mexico. This could be Rita. Wait. Rita would be 17th. Only one Tropical Depression did not get strong enough to be named.
Of course the Pacific had it worse last year. If I remember, they had either 24 or 26 powerful storms. But the trend is on. Many hurricanes and cyclones in both oceans.
plthijinx: very true. we'll just have to see what happenes. my only hope is that nothing comes my way, or if it does, it goes southward between corpus and b-ville like before....
It's now called Tropical Storm Rita, headed for warmer water between Cuba and FL. In about 5 days, somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Chasing Rita is Phillipe. Oh Stan, where art thou.
Just so long as it makes landfall before I get there ...
hmpf. looks like i'll be moving airplanes this weekend instead of dove hunting like originally planned.
The 5 day outlook:
<img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5_sm2+gif/145605W_sm.gif">
Oh man is this shit getting old! I'd run outside to curse at the skies and ocean for all the destruction, but I know not to make that mistake ever again...
and the sucky part is NBN and I are where the red dot is....
here is a
GOES satellite image of the gulf.....
Plthijinx, how far inland are you?
roughly 50 miles and 83 feet msl.
Well if anything happens to you, you can be sure that your local, state, and national officials have it covered.
yeah, that gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. i've been dealing with the sheriff's department since last month on another matter. they can't figure out whether to pick their head or scratch their ass.
and to make matters worse for the folks on the coastal and bay areas, the storm surge is coming at high tide.
When a hurricane gets down to 920 mb, well that is a low pressure system that would bottom out most barometers. However tonight's statement from the National Hurricane Center (22 September 2005 0300 zulu) has this little gem:
RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF 899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
Using Rush Limbaugh logic, global warming has clearly increased the intensity of hurricanes. But Rush Limbaugh logic also has another commandment from his god. Pervert facts only for a political agenda. And you thought Rush was playing dead due to criticism from The Cellar.
They're <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=135&tstamp=200509">predicting some potentially massive flooding from Rita far inland</a>.
The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area.
bouy data: :mg: :eek:
Conditions at 42001 as of
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 09/22/2005:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 50.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 68.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): E ( 89 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.31 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.4 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
bouy data: ...
Conditions at 42001 as of
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 09/22/2005:
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.1 ft
34 foot waves are not that high for a storm of this magnitude. Last year, an Atlantic hurricane created 40+ foot waves for the data buoy off of Frying Pan Shoals in SC ... before the buoy failed. I watched it as it was failing.
Meanwhile buoy 42003 was capsized by Katrina. These deep water buoys are typically archored in 3300 meters. A picture that gives some idea as to how large this only family of buoys (including 42001) really are:
If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area.
Don't worry, I'm sure GWB has another $40 billion on hand to fix Texas. And I'm sure that he'll want to triple his tax cuts to rev up the economy to help pay for the cost. After all, the more we spend, the more we save :rar: :yelgreedy
This is Forest Oil's High Island HI-334B rig a few hundred miles off of Galveston that is right in Rita's path.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Stations/fgbl1.jpg
Nearby is a data buoy (from Texas A&M) that failed even from distant Katrina. These small data buoys fail often in serious storms.
This is one of NOAA's more robust data buoys - a 3 meter discus anchored in about 1100 meters. Although maybe 100 miles east and sligtly south of that rig (and adjacent to a Shell oil rig), it was liberated by Katrina, remained operational, and was recovered. No weather data available.
NOAA buoy 40019, another 3 meter discus, is an only operational data buoy that can provide wave height. It is maybe 100 miles south of Galveston, currently sees barometric pressure drop to about 29.4 inches (just under 1000 millibars), and only reports 19 foot waves.
NOAA buoy 42001 cited above by plthijinx, a 12 meter discus, was also liberated from its 3000 meter anchor by Katrina. It also remained operational and was directly struck when Rita was reporting extremely low pressures. Waves at that point were up to 39 feet. However during Rita's visit, something rather interesting occurred at 42001. Ocean temperature dropped 5 degrees F to about 81 degrees. Ocean has since gone down to a cool 79 degrees. This would explain Rita's sudden decrease in strength.
Also on the northern edge of Rita and just below Western and Central LA are three Shell oil rigs in about 900 meters of water: Auger GB426 and
and Brutus GC158
Mars MC807 is similar, is directly south of New Orleans and would have suffered more from Katrina. Surprisingly, little information on the integrity of these rigs after Katrina and previous hurricanes is apparently available; as if it were a state secret.
These are but four of many hundreds, maybe a few thousand rigs that dot the Gulf. It demonstrates how much of us remains out there AND how difficult what has happened is learned.
NOAA site has a video showing the ocean fom Africa to Mexico with the colors changing (blue, yellow,orange, red) as the water temperature changes over the summer. Once in a while a blue spot will move across the ocean showing the water temperature drop as a hurricane moves over it. Pretty cool. :biggrin:
I talked to Fred ( plthijinx ) about 11am this morning , he is fine ( though slightly hung over ) , he has power , and water , but no Net connection .
maybe
this
has something to do with the birth of hurricanes...
or else, Key West is the obvious epicenter of gay sex. :p
maybe .... or else, Key West is the obvious epicenter of gay sex.
Don't look then at what may be Hurricane Stan sitting due south of Guantanamo Bay and just about to hit a long stretch of the warmest water left in the Gulf - all on the south side of Cuba.
Gay sex, nothing -- check out <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200519.html">what is about to slam into China!</a>
I heard this storm has serious growth potential.
longwang?! they actually named a storm longwang?? :lol2:
I was hoping for one named after me but this will do. :male:
Guys, this isn't funny! This thing is so big, it has the ability to soak the entire coast! This one-eyed monster may not weaken much once it has penetrated the mainland.
Not to worry. We'll bail them out. Have to keep fodder for Wal-imports.
Might be a cool place to go for disaster relief.
I like the food, but I'm not at all good with the language.
They have had a shit load of flooding in S.E. Asia this summer.This can't help any, with the ground saturated. :(
The ninteenth tropical depression has just formed in the Carribbean Sea south of Cuba. Oh Stan - there art' thou?
My partner at work is leaving for a Carribean Cruise this weekend.
I think he is about to find out why the rates were so low.
The ninteenth tropical depression has just formed ...
My mistake. While busy watching this potential tropical storm south of Cuba at longitude 80 W, I failed to realize the National Hurricane Center was declaring a storm at 35 W as the new tropical depression. The potential tropical storm south of Cuba has not yet condensed into a tropical depression and may not when it strikes the Yucatan Pennisula.
I had a dream, months ago, that we would make it to "V" and we would see a hurricane that shares my name. I even dreamt that I would get to meet this storm, personally, and see the damage it would cause to my hometown.
It was just a dream.
And, yet, <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=167&tstamp=200510">there it nearly is</a>.
Dammit.
Isn't that something of a unique trajectory for a TS/hurricane?
From Mexico north? What are you kidding?
Oh, for a hurricane.......nevermind. :o
A storm was brewing in the same area that created Hurricane Stan - south of Cuba. Another was brewing east of Puerto Rico and moving to the NW towards maybe SC. But the National Hurricane Center says another will probably become a Tropical Storm in about half way across the Atlantic. And so the question becomes not if, but which will become Tropical Storm Vince.
The last name on the list is Wilma. We just might use every name on the list.
BTW, that does not include the Eastern Pacific that was up to something like Otis - the fifteenth storm. And that list does not include typhoons in the western Pacific whose names are continued rather than restarted every year.
Where is storm'in Norman? Well he will be the 14th storm next year.
Tropical Strom Vince has been created. But this one is confused. Born between the Azores and Canary Islands, it is headed for Spain and Portugal. Clearly this storm does not like publicity as his older sisters Rita and Katrina. Only one more storm name exists in the 2005 list - Wilma.
Wonder why they don't use Xavier or Yolanda or Zelda?
Same reason they don't use "Quentin."
Tropical Strom Vince has been created. But this one is confused. Born between the Azores and Canary Islands, it is headed for Spain and Portugal. Clearly this storm does not like publicity as his older sisters Rita and Katrina. Only one more storm name exists in the 2005 list - Wilma.
Aw, yeah!
I made hurricane status last night!
Vince formed in a very unusual location--off the coast of Portugal. No known tropical storm has ever formed so far north and east. Thirdly, Vince formed in a region where water temperatures were only about 24 C--usually, 26 C is needed! Fourthly, Vince is incredibly tiny--and was a hurricane for about 12 hours!
Hurricane party, tonight! Woo!
A 12 hour blow is pretty impressive...sure you're up for a party? ;)
18 days left this season. Of course, some of the most powerful hurricanes have struck after the "season" is over.
[SIZE=7][COLOR=DarkRed]W I L M A [/COLOR][/SIZE][SIZE=5][COLOR=DarkGreen]?[/COLOR][/SIZE]
(And that storm in the Pacific could become Pilar.)
There is no Betty and there is no Hurricane Barney. Fred is scheduled to arrive in 2009. And Wilma threatens to be a real bitch this weekend.
She's the most intense hurricane ever, this morning. 881mb. Wilma dropped 85mb in just 12 hours.
I'm wondering ... if she heads across Florida from West to East, when she gets out into the Atlantic, will she bounce off the Gulf Stream and hit the Carolinas as a parting gift?
Expect a significant predicted track change at 5pm, today. The incoming low isn't as low as they thought.
Wilma is gonna be wild.
are the evacutating your area Kitsune? My dad has a place in Pt Charlotte and he went down there last weekend but noone has heard from him. Ive called everyday this week and have gotten no response, and now they are projecting this storm to come in right about there. Just curious about the mentality of the area at present.
A couple people have mentioned something about a hurricane in passing, but otherwise... not much.
Well, kind of.
Its too early to tell where Wilma wants to go and so everything here is currently business as usual. There are no boards up, yet, and I even have work scheduled on Sunday. I'm sure it might be somewhat different to the south of me, but even they have to continue on with their lives. If everything stopped everytime a hurricane set her gaze on the penninsula, we'd have absolutely no progress at all every June through November. I've simply made sure I have enough gasoline to get out of town, but I've not even packed up anything, yet. With a projected landfall not until Sunday and now the change to BAMM and GFDL that projects Wilma might not even hit FL, leaving now is far too early and preparing in any major way is questionable these days, anyways. As my friends in New Orleans said after their experience (they did end up losing their apartment and a lot of their belongings due to a partial roof failure), "Grab cash and get out. Your friends, your family, and your insurance company will take care of much more than water purification tablets and canned food ever would." Riding these things out just isn't as fun as people make it out to be, especially when hurricanes like Charley with a projected landfall of a category one come to shore suddenly with a different path and 145+mph winds.
Come Friday, midday, I'll make my decision if she continues towards the west coast. Friday night or Saturday morning, I'll be out of here if she proves a threat. I-75, SR301, and US441 will be parkinglots. Nothing new, there.
It is important to note that unless she gets much larger, this will be a very small storm. In fact, if Wilma were to hit thirty miles from me and come inland right now, we'd get a slightly breezy day with some normal summer-like rainfall. When Charley hit Punta Gorda, my area of Tampa (the original target and in a total state of panic at the time!) saw a light mist of rain and barely a breeze. Wilma's eye is only 4mi in diameter and the hurricane force winds only extend out ~15mi. This is going to change, of course, but so is the intensity and windspeed as she moves into cooler waters North of the Keys.
...if she does so. This is very much a wait and see game in FL and, as usual, it is a nerve-racking experience. I tend to get sick to my stomach watching the news, checking the tracks, and waiting. In the previous two years, I've tried to learn to not think about it until about 48 hours before landfall. With the way the media is treating these storms, that proves really tough, anymore. But until they get close, there is not much to do and there is absolutely nothing that can be done through worrying. In an odd twist, if I had no outside media notification at all, I would have found the windy storms we got in 2004 to be curious and annoying because of the power outtages, but not much else. Aside from cause me to turn up a bottle of rum and run outside to beg the sky for mercy, the concern shown more than two days out did no good at all.
The magic number, by the way, is sixty miles. All predicted tracks twenty-four hours out in the past ten years have never been off by more than sixty miles. If anything appears to get close to that threshold, its time to get out.
Looks like naples. :confused:
A beautiful, yet ominous sight, this morning around 8am: I rushed to the deck on hearing an amazing roar and saw scores of fighters thundering overhead, headed North. I'm not sure what base they're from, but the military even knows it is time to get out of South Florida.
A beautiful, yet ominous sight, ... scores of fighters thundering overhead, headed North. ... even knows it is time to get out of South Florida.
Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?
What we do know - George Jr did not have to read a PDB or make a decision before those planes could be evacuated. But to do same for you requires George Jr to make a decision. Ominous.
Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?
Uh... wha? I don't know what you're getting at.
What we do know - George Jr did not have to read a PDB or make a decision before those planes could be evacuated. But to do same for you requires George Jr to make a decision. Ominous.
I dunno, I figured the bases probably made the decision to fly those planes out. It really is in their best interest.
I've always felt that I could evacuate whenever I wanted to -- I sure as hell aren't waiting for the pres to give the word since it isn't even his responsibility. If you're talking about the issued voluntary and mandatory evac orders by the gov, I'd like to remind everyone that the evac zones and evac statements that are based on storm category have nothing to do with survival. All of them are based on tidal flooding and the ability of emergency services to access the area. The evac orders have nothing to do with your roof coming off, your home collapsing, etc. If a category five comes inland, I will not be told to leave...but I'm not sticking around for the storm!
I've never quite felt left behind during any of the hurricanes, in fact. Actually, much to the contrary -- the Florida Shrub at least fakes that he knows what he's doing in these situations. Maybe because we've had a lot more hurricanes in recent years, but Jeb gives a reasonable presentation on television and actually plays it fairly professional. "Emergency Services will not come for you during or for sometime after the hurricane. Prepare now, not moments before." The tax holiday issued at the beginning of this year for hurricane supplies, while not the best of ideas, at least got a lot of us thinking about our plans and got some of us to head to the store early for plywood, generators, etc.
Florida isn't New Orleans, but Andrew/Homestead years ago did prove it has the potential to be. I just don't allow myself to be placed in the position that would cause me to have to endure it.
[QUOTE=tw]Do you feel like a 100,000 left in New Orleans - abandoned by the government?
I dunno, I figured the bases probably made the decision to fly those planes out. It really is in their best interest.[/QUOTE] Exactly. Those squadrons did not need 'glorious leader' to make a decision. Apparently, you too need not feel like 100,000 in New Orleans - dependent on a president and his personal respresentative making a decision. So the answer is simply, "No".
No, you don't feel like 100,000 residents in New Orleans who could not get out - as a president, so in denial, did a San Diego fund raiser while a killer hurricane beat down on those 100,000. Same man who said, "No body expected the levees to be breached." No, you are not at the mercy of George Jr.
Actually you have little to worry about. Cheney is now back from vacation. The real president is now making decisions. But just imagine how ominious it would be if you had to depend on George Jr to make a decision - as even the military was bugging out. Ominous.
BTW, no hurricane has balls enough to go after the Cellar. God saves the Cellar. Ominous.
Wilma will proabably past west of this data buoy. However on Thursday night, data buoy 42056 may measure some of the largest waves. Currently they are at 33 feet. 40 feet would be very unusual. And then, will this buoy survive:
Yucatan Basin Data BuoyLooks like it not only survived, but the worst has passed?
--snip--
BTW, no hurricane has balls enough to go after the Cellar. God saves the Cellar. Ominous.
Not ominous, tw. cellars are at peril from floods, hurricanes menace the parts that protrude above the ground.
Have you forgotten the lessons of New Orleans so soon?
Wilma in the Cayman Islands. :worried:
This just in.
[SIZE=4]System Failures Seen in Levees [/SIZE]
The massive failures of levees in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, which flooded the city and caused hundreds of deaths, resulted from flaws at almost every level in the conception, design, construction and maintenance of the region's flood-control system, according to the preliminary findings of investigators.
The Army Corps of Engineers, local levee boards in Louisiana and other agencies failed to grasp warning signs over the last decade that the levees were not as strong as expected, reflecting a cultural mind-set that did not pay enough attention to public safety, according to Robert Bea, an engineering professor at UC Berkeley who is part of a National Science Foundation investigating team.
Now I know that I am in for another TW lecture here, but it doesn't seem too improbable that a system built in the 1900's and updated as late as the 1980's might be obsolete by todays standards. The question becomes "why wasn't this addressed"?
Construction defects also may have played a role. Analysis of concrete samples from the 17th Street Canal shows that the levee fractured in ways that suggest the material was substandard.
Let me see, substandard materials in a public construction contract. Who would have guessed?
So wait, are you telling me that Minister Farrakhan lied to me?
... but it doesn't seem too improbable that a system built in the 1900's and updated as late as the 1980's might be obsolete by todays standards. The question becomes "why wasn't this addressed"?
Why are so many are being taken on this ride of irrelevance? Is this controversy so that we forget the lies of George Jr - ie "Nobody expected the levees to be breached"?
Everyone expected the levees to be breached. Levees were upgraded to survive a category 3 storm. They did that just fine. They were predicted to be breached by a category 4 or 5 storm. Again, they performed as expected. Where is the controversy? Facts remain: Michael Brown's own subordinate, Bahamonde, personally e-mailed Michael Brown and numerous other FEMA managers that the levee had been breached. He even personally told Michael Brown that same thing about 7 hours later by phone. And yet facts remain - Michael Brown and FEMA were in complete denial that the levees were breached - as predicted - for almost one day. Furthermore, when Brown said the levees were breached, he also said New Orleans was not filling up like a bowl. The levee breach is about FEMA lies - not about the levee construction. Those levees perfomed exactly as pedicted. It was FEMA that was in denial - letting people die while FEMA did nothing.
Construction of those levees is an interesting engineering analysis; totally irrelevant to layman. The levees performed exactly as predicted. Don't for a minute forget why 1050+ people died in New Orleans - FEMA top management AND George Jr who was told those levees would be breached and then went to San Diego for a political fund raiser.
Don't let them confuse you with irrelevant facts. People died in New Orleans as Michael Brown and George Jr remained in denial - as demonstrated by what happened to the USS Bataan.
FEMA top management AND George Jr who was told those levees would be breached and then went to San Diego for a political fund raiser.
That sounds like a damn good idea. It's a shame he didn't tell everyone else to do the same. :eyebrow:
Everyone expected the levees to be breached. Levees were upgraded to survive a category 3 storm. They did that just fine. They were predicted to be breached by a category 4 or 5 storm. Again, they performed as expected.
Well, there is actually an interesting part of this that not a lot of people are talking about: no winds above category 1 speed were recorded in New Orleans. Katrina came ashore as a weak 4/strong 3, but New Orleans and its levees did not see these speeds.
Don't you people know that the government blew open the levees in order to flood the poor neighborhoods intentionally? That way, all the property can be condemned, bulldozed, seized under eminent domain, and the granted to big bucks Republican supporters for building new, pricey developments and other things more suitable to the way New Orleans should be.
At least, that's what my dog told me.
Well, there is actually an interesting part of this that not a lot of people are talking about: no winds above category 1 speed were recorded in New Orleans. Katrina came ashore as a weak 4/strong 3, but New Orleans and its levees did not see these speeds.
Your telling all that damage I saw pictures of, windows blown out, roofs blown off, signs and trees down, was from Cat 1 wind. :eek3:
As if this year's storm season was unique, now a new possiblity. Two tropical storms - Wilma and Alpha - merging to become one:
it looks like italy just soccer kicked a hole in whatever part of the world that is
at least i can speak english
But apparently you don't know a map of America when you see one. Dumbshit.
Woo! Enjoying a "South Florida Snow Day" here in Tampa! The scrub pines in the back are bending and cracking.
Since that was posted at 9:20 (Eastern) you must be doing OK. Hooray :thumb:
Since that was posted at 9:20 (Eastern) you must be doing OK. Hooray :thumb:
The sun is out, already, and there is not a tree or even a branch down in the area. No power outtages, as we barely got tropical storm force winds, if that. The temperatures plummeted as Wilma rolled in and sucked a cold front in with her -- we're barely going to hit 70F, tomorrow. Unless you were in Naples or Ft Lauderdale, it is a beautiful day in Florida, today.
ahh ---- off dickface
Not very creative, lack of capitalization and punctuation...I'm going to have to give this a 2 on scale of 10.
id have to give me a good 10 on the boner scale behind brianna on those bumpy motorcycle trips
you know, gonzo, something tells me that you and I wouldn't really get along...
Brianna i know your older then me but i think its beautiful when 2 people can fall in love and even though theres a chance one of those people may die a horrible death that doesnt make me fear love, could i be your boyfriend?..... i love you
you're going to die a horrible death? Oh, wow. I'm sorry about that. Is it that virulent strain of syphilis? I hear that's just awful! :sniff:
PS-thanks for loving me, but, well--I can't love anyone except XOB. Sorry!
hey briana are you here right now, sit down, relax, take off your bra if youd like, just remember always wipe front to back and never beleive someone when tehy say shaving ur pubic hair will rid you off crab infestation
gonzo--you have syphilis AND pubic lice?
I'm beginning to see the problem...
ya some hooker gave them to me when i was drunk cause shes a bitch
I don't believe a word of this...no one would do this guy. Not even for money.
He probably caught it from a toilet seat. Orally.
Wow. You can actually feel the average post-quality-level sinking with every gonzo post.
I've changed my mind, this is not a high school kid doing a term paper, it's a whole group of frat boys from a disbanded chapter in the northeast who have nothing to do until the next keg arrives.
Palm Beach Airport, I think this plane was trying to hide. :eek:
Well I'll be damned. Tropical Storm Beta just formed due north of Panama and headed north up the Central American coast - on a Carribbean trail through where Wilma had been stalking.
Well I'll be damned. Tropical Storm Beta just formed due north of Panama and headed north up the Central American coast - on a Carribbean trail through where Wilma had been stalking.
They're already predicting that Beta will be a major hurricane on landfall on Central America and be devastating enough that the name will have to be retired. They can't decide on how to handle the retirement, though, and are considering naming the storm "Beta 2005". :eek:
What a season this has been!
How is your Greek alphabet? Been practicing? Alpha. Beta. Gamma. Delta just took a turn into North Africa. Now we have tropical storm Epsilon - centered in the Atlantic at about latitude of S Carolina. With the hurricane season officially ending tomorrow(?), are you ready to start all over again? First hurricane would be Alberto.
Okay, <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200530.html">this is just silly</a>. Goodnight, folks.
Ridiculous is relatively warm weather with rain (not ice) during the last week of December in Philadelphia.
Okay, this is just silly. Goodnight, folks.
What's next, the Sumerian alphabet, sanskrit, hebrew?
Ridiculous is relatively warm weather with rain (not ice) during the last week of December in Philadelphia.
It doesn't look very wintery in Sitka, Alaska, either. :headshake
What's next, the Sumerian alphabet, sanskrit, hebrew?
For reasons only the Ancient Greeks can fathom, they put "Z" up in the front end of their alphabet. There are 18 remaining letters.
If we do make it to Ω, you should probably make sure that you have a year's supply of food and water and/or prepare for the rapture. Does anybody know if these are actually the tribulations?
For reasons only the Ancient Greeks can fathom, they put "Z" up in the front end of their alphabet. There are 18 remaining letters.
If we do make it to Ω, you should probably make sure that you have a year's supply of food and water and/or prepare for the rapture. Does anybody know if these are actually the tribulations?
Thanks for reminding me. Yes,
Zeta is number six. What is interesting is that the first four of the Greek are similar to the first four in
Hebrew Aleph-Bet-Gimel-Daled. "Z" is the 7th letter in Hebrew. I still have my aleph-bet memorized from my Bar Mitzvah.
As for the Rapture, doesn't having a world leader who believes in the
Rapture make it a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Antichrist will rise to power by promising peace on earth and will make an agreement to protect the restored state of Israel. However, the Jews will be betrayed by their new benefactor, who will suddenly suspend all traditional religious ceremonies and demand that they worship him. Those who do not cooperate will be persecuted.
Speaking as a Jew, we have a long history of saying 'fuck you' to people who try that. As for persecuting us, get in line.
I do have to wonder how Israel and the Middle East are handled by someone who literally believes all of this.
With respect to the memory of the discussion pertaining to the Greek alphabet, I humbly offer
this happy stumble. While not precisely enraptured, I was entertained and informed. Enjoy.
