I don't know noth'in bout birthen no hurricane
The sixth tropical depression just rolled of the African coast headed on a same track as Charley and Bonnie. (behind is anoter storm that appears to break up when it hits the Atlantic). Anyone taking bets? Will this become a hurricane and will it follow the same track into the Carribean Sea?
Daniell made a right turn at about this same spot and self destructed. Maybe that is why it is better to name then after girls?
I'd need to see a few more maps...corresponding temperature maps, infared maps to show high and low pressure centers...before I made any bets. would wsi.com have those too? (I'm guessing that's where you got the image, seeing it's at the top there...)
I'd need to see a few more maps...
Moving satellite images of Atlantic
The eastern Pacific also had three potential hurricanes rolling about. One just turned away from Hawaii. A quick view suggests China may be due for another significant Typhoon:
The World satellite viewGo ahead, start your global warming rant.
We have a winner - maybe. The rainstorm from Africa last week grew into a Category 4 hurricane called Frances. It is predicted to strike SC sometime around Saturday - in about four days. However the predictions have been pushing it northward having originally been predicted to hit Cape Canaveral. And so we wonder if The Cellar may again be threatened by another environmental catastrophy:
One of those little pud storm systems on the earlier map grew into T.S. Gaston, whose remains have, as you've probably heard by now, inundated part of the sotuheast, in NC and VA. Richmond VA got it especially bad, I-95 and I-64, the two main highway arteries through Richmond both closed by floodwater, along with the whole downtown area (Shockoe Bottom for those who know) under water in depths ranging from 2 to 8 to 12 feet. It's a total mess. And NOW we have about a week before Frances gets here. This is going to be an interesting Labor Day weekend. My parents made it through just fine though, so that's cool.
Can someone do a "delay the rain until Sunday or Monday" dance? I"m moving this weekend, and Frances is the last visitor I need.
Kitsune can do a Hurricane Safety Dance--will that do?
Kitsune can do a Hurricane Safety Dance--will that do?
???
Oh, so Kitsune hasn't mentioned the fact that he once really honked off the lightning spirits, and was a storm *attractor*? :eek:
No offense, but I'd rather have someone else do the storm deflection dance.
Can someone do a "delay the rain until Sunday or Monday" dance? I"m moving this weekend, and Frances is the last visitor I need.
Every season should end with a thriller. After all that summer sinning, god must reek his vengence. It's a story line as old as the bible.
Well, it can end with a thriller, just as long as it starts once my electronics are safely in my new house :)
Neat weather watching pages:
The Weather Matrix: (wow!)
http://www.weathermatrix.net/
National Hurricane Center-NOAA:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Hurricanes.net:
http://www.hurricanes.net/
Hurricane and Extreme Storm Impact Studies:
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/
Hurricanes Theme Page:
http://www.cln.org/themes/hurricanes.html
Unisys Hurricane/Tropical Data:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/
The Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org/???
Oh, so Kitsune hasn't mentioned the fact that he once really honked off the lightning spirits, and was a storm *attractor*? :eek:
No offense, but I'd rather have someone else do the storm deflection dance.
Strangely, no--Kitsune never mentioned
that
In light of this new information, I withdraw my vote for Kitsune.
Oh, so Kitsune hasn't mentioned the fact that he once really honked off the lightning spirits, and was a storm *attractor*?
I made my peace with the electrical storms sometime ago! And my new hurricane dance, complete with rum, has done wonders so far.
In light of this new information, I withdraw my vote for Kitsune.
Yeah? Thats find by me. Of course, I wouldn't hold harsh feelings against me if I were you -- my friend that lives on the East coast of Florida is about to find out what happens when you don't pay me back in a timely manner.
Gosh Kit, unleashing a #5 hurricane on the Eastern Seaboard to punish one delinquent deadbeat, sounds....well....Biblical. :eek:
XO. Thank you. I saw your pix. It is a real big damage.
Your welcome, Billy. Yeah, some of those pictures were amazing. :eek:
I have returned from the mass evacuation! What a hellish, exhausting drive both out and back. I never want to have to do it, again.
Oh, what's that? I should keep my bags packed? Shit.
Oh, what's that? I should keep my bags packed? Shit.
First the old news. A summary of where the rain fell as provided by Intellicast.com:
And where is the next one(s)? Ivan is just entering the Carribean Sea. Behind him is another? I don't think so. It never remained stable after leaving Africa. So maybe we have had enough fun this year at the expense of Kitsune?
While this has a chance of hitting the Tampa Bay area, its still far too early to tell. Still, it is on the same track as Charley.
12:24 pm - Remaining Residents Defiant As Florida Braces For More
October 30, 2004
ORLANDO, Florida -- After being ravaged by a total of 17 different hurricanes in the course of a single season, five of which reached Category 5, the highest wind speed rating, remaining residents are battening down the hatches yet again as Hurricane Zoe approaches.
"Hurricane Zoe breaks the mold in several ways," said Dr. Harmon Gale, acting director of the National Hurricane Center's new Orlando office, the Miami office having been damaged beyond repair in Hurricane Nicole weeks earlier. "For one thing, after Hurricane Walter appeared, we realized we'd run out of names for Atlantic storms, so in a pinch we adopted Xenia, Yuri and Zoe. This will be the first time we've ever used all the letters. It's a good thing the tropical storm season is ending, or we'd have to go back and pick up Q and U as well.
"For another, Hurricane Zoe is so powerful that we have assigned it to a new Category 6, defined as having sustained winds of 250 miles per hour or higher. After Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter, Xenia and Yuri all bowled through Florida at approximately four-day intervals, we thought we'd seen everything. But Zoe is shaping up to be the worst storm in all of human history. I would strongly recommend evacuating to someplace safe, like central Asia."
And Floridians have been taking that advice: of the estimated 20 million state residents at the beginning of 2004, at least 80 percent have abandoned their homes. Hurricane-related deaths this year are estimated in the tens of thousands. Every square mile of Florida has been assaulted by hurricane-force winds on multiple occasions in the last few weeks. Heavily populated regions such as West Palm Beach and St. Petersburg are still substantially submerged, and the transformation of the Everglades into huge salt marshes has made most of southern Florida effectively impassable by automobile. Damage is estimated at over 5 trillion dollars, insurance companies are refusing to do any further business in the state even on pain of federal litigation, and due to the rapid succession of storms, there has been no time to perform any but the crudest of repairs to utilities. Florida is a wasteland, and experts estimate it will remain one for decades to come. Many of those we interviewed at the refugee camps in the hills of northern Georgia, when we asked if they would be going back, screamed curses at us, or simply wept.
Despite all this, a few hardy souls have hung on through it all.
We found one man (who refused to give his name) in the Orlando area who decided he was staying, no matter what. In exchange for several cans of gasoline, he agreed to an interview.
"I have nowhere else to go," he said, sitting in a lounge chair on his driveway, a wall of sandbags surrounding his property, wearing a bandolier of shotgun shells. "And after Karl passed through, I figured it was too late to go anywhere anyway. Insurance won't pay, and the house isn't worth a dime on the dollar now."
And how was he able to survive all this time? "Believe it or not, after Karl it got a lot easier. People had had enough, so they loaded up their cars with whatever they had and made a run for it. When they heard I was staying, they gave me whatever they couldn't bring along. I don't know how many of them made it, though, since Lisa and Matthew crossed one another in north Florida while they were all parked on I-75.
"Anyway, a lot of the stores were abandoned, too. I've got enough food and equipment here for the duration thanks to them. All the levelled houses around here have provided me with enough scrap building materials to reinforce my own house. And did I mention that there's no traffic problems for a change?"
And what of the dangers? "Well, yeah, a lot of crazy people out there. All the stinkin' looters somehow find their way here, that and the diseased and the just plain crazy. I hate to have to kill 'em all, but there hasn't been police or emergency service out here for a month.
"Yeah, yeah, I've heard about Zoe on the shortwave. Ever since Ivan made three, I figured, what the heck?" he said, scratching at his beard, grinning. "Might as well collect 'em all."
Um... what? October 30th, 2004 hasn't happened yet...
It's not funny enough to be The Onion, but I can't really figure out who else would write it.
It's disturbingly hilarious, that is. :D :worried:
My boss is leaving this weekend to visit his in-laws. He should arrive in Florida just in time for he, his wife, and her parents to be evacuated.
It is somehow custom or mandatory to write something witty on the back window of your car when you're running away from a hurricane. Suggestions appreciated! With this current track, I should be booking it North on I-75 sometime Sunday morning.
"I'm not scared, there's just a bigger party up North" won't fit. Damn.
"How's My Driving? Call 1-800-ITSAFUCKINGEVACUATIONYOUDUMBASS"
That probably won't fit either. How about:
"Yeah, but it's a DRY heat."
We're all convinced Ivan is Russian. And drunk. We've not seen a track change this much, this frequently, in a long time.
All of this started getting stressful last night when I began sorting through things that are irreplacable. I suddenly realized that cramming all of it into the car isn't possible and you have to figure out what is the most important: family photographs, old books, etc. After I had packed it all into boxes, all it took was for me to look up and see what I was leaving behind before I reconsidered and began trading out items. A disaster that sneaks up on you and takes your home is difficult to deal with, but somehow knowing that the uncertain is just days away seems so much worse right now. One week from now I might be sitting on my couch enjoying more football, sitting in a shelter with no place to live, or, with the way this summer is going, watching another hurricane spiral towards us.
This afternoon, a shifting of gears. Packing things into plastic tubs got put on hold as we considered that driving North might be more dangerous than staying put as Ivan takes a Westerly course for the day. Food and water suddenly became important and I made sure I raided the stores, today. On the drive through town, I counted five out of six gas stations that were out of fuel thanks to yesterday's panic started by rumors of gasoline rationing, all of which were eventually dispelled by the govenor. Looking around, it also seemed impossible that we had the possibility of being hit by a catagory four hurricane.
During a commercial break on the radio, a correction: catagory five. Great.
And now I sit, trying to watch Georgia Tech battle Clemson, only to have the broadcast interrupted by the local news to update everyone on a prediction track that hasn't changed in the last three hours and won't update for at least another two. Once in the crosshairs, I'm now on the very edge of the "cone of probability", but even that will change after Ivan passes Cuba. Friends in New Orleans indicate that even they are getting a bad feeling from this beast and that residents there remain fairly nervous, thinking that the Westerly course might very will continue and throw their city into deep water.
Not everyone throws hurricane parties because they're fun. It seems, this season, that its one of the only things that keeps peoples' nerves calm.
Water, Milk, batteries, and flashlights were all thin but in stock, today. What sold out? Well, I managed to grab the last packet!
"Have Fun!"
Damn, maybe the Californians are better off with earthquakes that are over before you can worry about them. Priority #1, be safe, man! If your past gets blown away, I'll give you mine :grouphug:
you guys just hang in there and well, shit, you've had your share of storms this year, i guess h-town could take one for the team. just as long as i get my multi-engine commercial rating out of the way before it gets here! just in case, be safe and for god's sake, protect that bottle of rum!!!
Yeah, good luck.....looks like your in for some *shit*.
Yeah, good luck.....looks like your in for some *shit*.
Wrong! WRONG! Thats just wrong.
All the unknowns are making everyone uneasy, but we're starting to feel a little bit better, here. My friends in New Orleans, however, sent a one word e-mail along with a URL for the Wednesday 8am computer model for Ivan: "Uh-oh".
Yeah, good luck.....looks like your in for some *shit*.
Yeah, that picture looks like the hands of God rippin' someone a new one!
Damn, maybe the Californians are better off with earthquakes that are over before you can worry about them.
....
105mph? Peh. Its a wee baby.
Don't the Pacific ones fizzle out long before they reach the California coast? The water there is ass-cold!
I don't remember ever hearing anything about wind damage from those west coast storms. They do get tons of rain from them occasionally, which causes massive mud slides. I guess in the surfing culture, house surfing down the mountain, would be the ultimate. :eek:
Life is good, Kit. You had a chance to inventory your possessions and revaluate your priorities. :thumbsup:
Life is good, Kit. You had a chance to inventory your possessions and revaluate your priorities.
No doubt -- this season had provided some good lessons.
Charley: Changes in strength and direction can happen at the last minute. So can pants-shitting.
Frances: Flashlights, batteries, gas, water, and food are all mandatory, direct hit or not. I also found out they can ban the sale of alcohol after a storm. With no power and nothing to do for days, what a nightmare that would have been! (Note: as of today, some people in Florida still didn't have power restored.)
Ivan: Besides figuring out what is important to pack and checking for insurance validity, I seriously hope Ivan has nothing to teach me. Really, I've learned my lesson. Do you hear me, weather gods? I don't need to learn anything else, like how a roof holds together in catagory five winds or how deep flood waters can get in a state that is essentially nothing more than a large sandbar. At least I found neat old photographs and newspapers in my searches, which was good, and I finally got to generate a proper keepsake box. A waterproof one. :D
We're all hoping that wherever Crazy Ivan and Rain of Terror hits that everyone fairs well, and that includes my friends in New Orleans who are, I think, well into Northern Alabama by now to stay with family to weather it out, although it certainly won't get them away from it. At last word, hurricane-force winds exptended out more than 110 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extended out more than 200 miles. Atlanta residents were told yesterday to expect possible catagory one winds. This thing is just now edging past Cuba and around noon, today, we looked up to see "hurricane haze" at high altitudes -- the outflow from an approaching hurricane that starts out as rippled cirrus clouds that melt to a thick overcast layer. All the way in Tampa, we're supposed to get some good winds even if it hits West of the panhandle.
That is madness. :eek:
Life is good, Kit. You had a chance to inventory your possessions and revaluate your priorities.
And while he was busy watching the Gulf of Mexico, look what popped up behind him:
105mph? Peh. Its a wee baby.
That's 105
knots or about 120 MPH. Its the 10th major storm only in the eastern Pacific. There is a whole different name system for all the hurricanes (typhoons) that try to get at Billy in China. And yes, the western Pacific has also suffered a large number of typhoons this year.
And while he was busy watching the Gulf of Mexico, look what popped up behind him
I need to start up a betting pool for these things. My guess: TD11 is headed for the Carolinas with the high that is in place over FL right now -- the same high that might be saving us from Ivan. ("Might" because, well, anything can happen in the wonderful world of random weather and drunk, stumbling Russian hurricanes.)
Watch the sky for me
watch the night...
That's 105 knots or about 120 MPH.
I was reading the predicted location at 120 hours past last reported position.
Trust me, I'm getting real used to reading these maps. ;)
My favorite ones come from Wunderground because you get to see the
original computer models they base the predictions on.
KYAGB
The Hurricane Risk for New Orleans
"OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane."
Which would mean what?
"Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda.Alright, Florida, unless Ivan takes a sharp turn to the east, it looks like you'll get by with just a grazing wound...but if you can spare it, keep your eye on that little upstart over by the Virgin Islands, T.S. Jeanne.
I hear Wisconsin is nice and pretty hurricane-free this time o' year...
I hear Wisconsin is nice and pretty hurricane-free this time o' year...
Safest place is The Cellar. Hurricanes never go after The Cellar. Hear that Jeanne? Hurricanes never go for The Cellar. Going after Kitsume is too much fun.
Everyone have a drink for The Big Easy, tonight. At nine feet below sea level, that city is going to need it. What would we do without the French Quarter?
Going after Kitsume is too much fun.
First it was lightning, now hurricanes. The weather is never going to leave me alone!
I cannot complain a bit, though. So far, Tampa has faired really well through this year -- so far, so good. And we're just a little more than halfway through hurricane season!
Jeanne's long range projection takes it over Daytona Beach, again. That's where our home office is, and all this hurricane preparation really screws up my life...and I work in Eastern Kansas, ferchrissake.
I cannot complain a bit, though. So far, Tampa has faired really well through this year -- so far, so good. And we're just a little more than halfway through hurricane season!
It's that Cellar karma saving your butt. :D
It's that Cellar karma saving your butt.
I've not gotten hit for what I've written here?
Ladies and gentlemen, being an asshole can payoff! Woo!
Jeanne's long range projection takes it over Daytona Beach, again. That's where our home office is, and all this hurricane preparation really screws up my life...and I work in Eastern Kansas, ferchrissake.
So, if things are timed *just* right, the home office can get nailed by the hurricane while a twister rips the corrugated tin roof off your office?
Another view of Ivan ---
From the international space station:
Another one is forming behind Jeanne having reformed after recently rolling off Africa:
Another view of Ivan ---
From the international space station:
Kind of looks like Ivan is sucking in the ISS. Now *that* is a big hurricane!
So, if things are timed *just* right, the home office can get nailed by the hurricane while a twister rips the corrugated tin roof off your office?
That's kind of scary. How did you know our office has a corrugated tin roof? (actually, it is standing seam metal, but close enough for most psychic purposes, I'd say).
BTW...I did not, in any way, shape or form mean to indicate that the relatively minor inconvenience caused to me by the current Floridian Hurricane Barrage holds a candle to the death and destruction being endured by those in the middle of these monsters.
Another one is forming behind Jeanne having reformed after recently rolling off Africa:
I hope that isn't as organized as it looks in the still image.
Time to just laugh at them -- because there's not a thing anyone can do. A cruel joke? Well, better than May 20th in Codell, Kansas, I guess! (hit by a tornado on that date in 1916, 1917, and 1918)
Time to just laugh at them -- because there's not a thing anyone can do.
Which makes the current issue of Scientific American so interesting. Suggested is that hurricans can be redirected or even diminished. Though probably not in our lifetime.
There's been talk of what could happen if you seed hurricane clouds. I'm not so sure that would really work. If the hurricane is over warm water, it's sucking up more than enough fuel to replenish whatever the seeding takes out. It'd be best to wait until it got at least halfway over land and by then it'll stall out on its own, not to mention the fact seeding it at that point would only bring MORE rain to the people under it.
Hmm...changing a hurricane's path. Somehow they'd have to overcome the force of the earth's rotation, because that's what makes a hurricane what it is instead of just a large unorganized cluster of storms. Besides, there's just something not right about being able to redirect a hurricane. What if we had deflected Ivan and sent it on a straight westerly path? Mexico would have been thoroughly nailed and they're frankly not as able to cope with massive hurricanes as we are here, especially in the rural areas. The death tolls would be astronomical compared to here. It'd be on the heads of whomever gave the order to change Ivan's path.
Check out this slideshow of hurricane damage from NYT
slide showIf you were to change a hurricane's path you'd probably do it when you could send them out to sea -- send them north/nne through the Atlantic until they convert to non-tropical or break up.
Here are some pictures from WashingtonPost
Slideshow
Edit:
Here are a bunch more from a local Florida paper. Click on each picture to start a slideshow. There are like 50-100 pictures here.
More Ivan destruction
Or paste this link into your browser:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/guides/hurricane/galleries.shtmlThat's kind of scary. How did you know our office has a corrugated tin roof? (actually, it is standing seam metal, but close enough for most psychic purposes, I'd say).
I'm a professional. Don't try this at home. :vader1:
How destructive can a hurricane be? Wave height appears to be a good indicator. For example the recent hurricane through Pennsacola (Frances) produced 52 foot waves at the data buoy located 64 nm off Alabama (this data buoy broke free from its moorings and is currently drifting). A data buoy located 120 east of Cape Canaveral reported only 30 foot waves. Last year's hurricane that struck N Carolina (that chopped through the Outer Banks) had 42 foot waves at Frying Pan Shoals.
Also interesting is how long a hurricane exists. This from a data buoy located off Cape Canaveral demonstrates how sudden the change can be during and after a hurricane:
Just as it appearred the hurricane season was over, look what just popped off the African coast-
Well finally...I was thinking something had gone wrong! :unsure:
I think they got at least one more after this one to worry about. No reason. Just a feeling.
Four in one year might be bad, but check out poor Japan who might be set up to endure their
ninth typhoon this year, named
Ma-On. Impressive wind speeds, too! :eek:
160 with 195 gusts? Hmm, clay tile roof, rice paper walls, time to skedaddle. :eek:
Thankfully with as busy as this years season has been, we on the SOuth Carolina coast have faired well. However we have had a fair bit of wind damage. I am posting a shot of one of te odder ones. Wind and water together can get into odd spots.
Here is a prime example. :eek:
Wind and water together can get into odd spots.
Must have been a hell of a storm to not only get water inside a lightbulb, but also wash in a turtle, too! Damn!
Mathews would be the 13th east coast hurricane. I believe there were 11 in the eastern Pacific. But in the western Pacific, this storm currently hitting Japan is the 24th typhoon this season - according to Radio Japan last night.
There's more in that bulb than water. Looks like the turtle raped it. :eyebrow:
I have it on good information that the turtle and the light bulb are just good friends. :yelgreedy
What's the turtles name, Kobe? Mike? :eyebrow:
The National Weather Service has issued a warning for yet another
catastrophic hurricane following on the heels of Ivan and Jeanne. The
path of this hurricane zigs and zags, and is therefore highly
unpredictable. At times its winds spin counter-clockwise, then it
abruptly reverses direction. Experts predict that this one will cause
the most damage to the United States that we have experienced in four
years. They are naming this one Hurricane Kerry. Be advised, the only
way for citizens to protect themselves is by hiding behind a Bush.
the onlyay for citizens to protect themselves is by hiding behind a Bush.
Or sticking your head up your ass. Oh,..wait,...that's the same thing. :p
Yesterday a new topical storm formed in the Atlantic - Nicole. Today a new one in the Pacific - Lester-
Vegas never has hurricanes. Or tornados. Or earthquakes.
You just fucking BROIL in the summer.
But it's a dry heat.
122 degrees F in the bloody shade.
Japan typically suffers 2.6 typhoons per year. The record was 6 in one season. Typhoon Tokage is the tenth typhoon with winds exceeding 220 KPH (about 140 MPH) and killing almost 80 people. It struck Japan in the south east coast and weakened just as it hit Tokyo. However the eleventh typhoon, Typhoon Nock-ten is on the same track, approaching the Philippines and promises to be just as strong.
One of the factors predicted by global warming models are typhoons and hurricanes that become more powerful. This year's unusual high number of storms corresponds to higher than normal ocean temperatures. Storms that normally would not amount to much instead become destructive storms. Historical data suggests this trend should continue.
The oil sucked up all the hurricane winds.
Ben Franklin knew that you could calm troubled waters by pouring oil on them.
I think my area is officially in a drought. I know it's pissing me right the hell off. Where's my fucking rain?
We've got it. We've got your rain, we've got our rain, we've got urrbody's rain. Srsly. June was a record. July broke the old July record into a million pieces. And we've been soaked all of August so far. I think we went for two weeks straight in July with rain everyday.
The weather has gone all cockadoody.
Please send some here. Supposed to storm tonight. Hmmph, ive heard that one before.
Please send some here.
Sister, if I could put it in a box...
