The economy is BACK

The economy is BACK with a vengence! Highest growth rate since 1984!

And it appears to be a broad-based recovery as opposed to a spike from a single sector (e.g., defense spending). The trade deficit even narrowed (a sure sign of productivity growth). And once we max out on productivity, the Help Wanted posters start going up! WooooHoooo!!

Here's one take from a conservative rag. :)

It's an illusion. Been paying attention to the news? There's still major layoffs happening (Ford, Caterpillar). There's no real sign of corporate spending. Companies are missing earnings as often as hitting them. These figures are an artefact, probably will disappear in the revised data a month from now.

Since my wife is now unexpectedly looking for work, and I'll thus be helping her comb the Chester County area for some sort of CNA job, the conservative rag had better be right. I'll believe it when I see it.

russotto writes:

There's no real sign of corporate spending.

The BBC writes:

Business investment was up 11.1% in the quarter, driven by growth of more than 15% over the previous year in spending on equipment and computer software - although companies still seemed wary of building up stocks, demonstrating some caution about future prospects.

I showed the entire paragraph to both counter and illustrate your point. While business has continued to invest in capacity, it appears to be reluctant to invest in inventory. Wisely so, I would say - until, that is, both consumer spending and consumer confidence increase. The econ reports we just received indicate that both consumer barometers have now increased substantially and we are heading into a big spending quarter (Christmas season). We shall see if business increases inventory in recognition of the latest consumer spending pattern and in anticipation of a big spending Q4.

I am painfully and personally aware of the unemployment rate (6.2%) which is entirely incompatible with a 7+% annual GDP growth rate. In pulling out of an economic downturn, all unused productivity and capacity must first be exhausted before job growth occurs. I have to think that capacity and productivity are maxed out and that job creation is around the corner. We shall see. I can tell you that while Fortune 500 layoffs make lots of news, the real employment situation is more closely corellated with the employment needs of small business.

And, the article also indicated a shrinking trade deficit. That cash goes straight to the "bottom line" of the economy by increasing the money supply dollar for dollar.

I'm reluctant to believe that this "growth" will be revised out in a month. Even if it is taken down a notch, its still very encouraging.

[SIZE=1]edited to clarify what growth rate the 7+% referred to: GDP. No other changes[/SIZE]

The unemployment rate always bothers me because it doesn't count the people who have fallen through the cracks or the people who've exhausted their benefits. It doesn't reflect the people that have taken hugh pay cuts when their job was moved off shore and they're working at Walmart.:(

I wouldn't hold my breath on that consumer spending rise until we get some jobs out here. And since the jobs are going overseas, that might take a bit longer than inventories care to wait.

Hopefully, the people in India and Taiwan and China will start buying up all those American made items soon.

Originally posted by vsp
Since my wife is now unexpectedly looking for work, and I'll thus be helping her comb the Chester County area for some sort of CNA job, the conservative rag had better be right. I'll believe it when I see it.

CNA jobs should be no problem. Good luck to her.

"eldercare" facilities are booming, if your lady doesn't mind working in a warehouse for the old. Watchout for the alzheimers units, though. The clients tend to be really assaultive but you're not allowed to hit back in a nursing home ...

We ordered an American made washer today.

Made in America, USA.....or America, (3rd world country of your choice)

Estados Unidos brother

What can I say? I'm bored tonight (there are no elections to rig).

ahem.

Originally posted by Beestie
The economy is BACK with a vengence! Highest growth rate since 1984!

And it appears to be a broad-based recovery as opposed to a spike from a single sector (e.g., defense spending). The trade deficit even narrowed (a sure sign of productivity growth). And once we max out on productivity, the Help Wanted posters start going up! WooooHoooo!!

Here's one take from a conservative rag. :)

I'm still curious about the effects of the Iraq reconstruction on the economy. If we are pumping billions of dollars into goods and services for Iraq, from mostly American companies, would that appear in the economic outlook? It would probably not be categorized as defense spending.

I wonder the same thing about job growth. Say a reservist is in Iraq for 12 months. His company may be unwilling to wait for him and is probably not legally required to do so, so they hire a replacement. Until his deployment is finished this counts as job growth.

It no secret that wars effect the economy, and a war coupled witha reconstruction will probably have a noticeable impact. Of course these are short term gains. At some point tens of thousands of reservists return looking for their civilian jobs back. Even regular military who don't reenlist will be seeking jobs.

I'm sure the White House wants us to believe that the 100-400 dollars each family received (assuming they weren't super-rich) is responsible for this growth. I'll believe that when Alan Greenspan says its so. At this point he's probably the smartest man in our government, who is never going to run for office and who does not appear to have any partisan views.

BTW, I do not consider thinking that the Bush White House has the economic responsibility of a teenager on crack as a partisan belief, merely the result of observation. So any comments he may have made critical of Bush's economic policies are not politically motivated. Unlike, Powell, who has to grin and take it, Greenspan is independant enough that he can publicly disagree with the president.

Now that I really think about it, Iraq could be the new Mexico or China. Cheaply made goods of good quality, sold here cheaper than if they were made here, and lots of profits for the businesses.

What conservative or businessman wouldn't like that?

Originally posted by richlevy

I wonder the same thing about job growth. Say a reservist is in Iraq for 12 months. His company may be unwilling to wait for him and is probably not legally required to do so, so they hire a replacement. Until his deployment is finished this counts as job growth.

[color=indigo]I believe that it is not a legal requirement to hold a position open for a person longer than 2 weeks for National Guard training, or for people not within the guidelines of the Family Medical Leave Act.

So Joe National Guard Guy loses his job, gets paid basically nothing, (Servicepeople E-4 and under qualify for food stamps if the member is the sole income earner with a family of 4) and the spouse has to pick up the slack. When Joe gets back, he's unemployed now, too.

Dubya came to NC to tell us how great the economy is looking, in a state with double digit unemployment, and where my husband put in no less than 50 applications before getting a temp job at a Pharmeceuticals plant. This includes WalMart, the fast food joints, the college, temp agencies, anywhere that had a sign up or an ad in the paper, word of mouth, and the Unemplyment Agency. So Dubya can stick it in his ass. As far as this part of NC is concerned, the numbers lie.
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Actually, the reservists don't have much to worry about regarding job security.

Originally posted by OnyxCougar

Dubya came to NC to tell us how great the economy is looking, in a state with double digit unemployment, and where my husband put in no less than 50 applications before getting a temp job at a Pharmeceuticals plant. This includes WalMart, the fast food joints, the college, temp agencies, anywhere that had a sign up or an ad in the paper, word of mouth, and the Unemplyment Agency. So Dubya can stick it in his ass. As far as this part of NC is concerned, the numbers lie.
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He can't afford for the economy to pick up in the South for the next 4 years. The other reason, besides patriotism, for the high rate of armed forces volunteerism in the South is the use of the armed forces as 'employer of last resort'.

With the army pounding sand in Iraq, everyone who signs up knows where they will be for the next 12 months. If recruitment levels fall too low, then the US faces the real prospect of reinstituting the draft. If that happens, especially while Bush or a Republican successor is in office, the the Democrats can retake Congress on a 'see what happens when you have a Republican president and Congress at the same time' platform.

*rap version* The Grand Ole Party needs Good Ole Boys. Show the flag and hand them war toys. Give a rebel yell and bring up the noise. Smile real nice and pat on the back. The Good Ole boys gonna rock Iraq.

Sorry about that, I have Musicmatch online pumping out George Thorogood. It effects my critical thinking.

Rich, that money hasn't reached the economy yet; any effects of that money will be seen in the economy next year.

Anyone who considers the effect of war on the economy should consider that this was not "war" by the definition the economy needs. This was dropping a bunch of stuff on a few people. We will have to build more stuff to drop on the next ones, but that can take a while.

These figures are an artefact, probably will disappear in the revised data a month from now.

Well, yes and no. The figure of 7.2% was revised allright, but it was revised upward to an astounding 8.2%!

We are in a recovery cycle. The downturn was managed reasonablly well. As much as a juggernaught like our economy can be influenced.

Couple of things to remember:
The economy lost a shitload of value, on paper.
People/busineses are still gun-shy.
Hiring is being spread over multiple economies (China, India, Mexico, etc).
The end of the world is not nie. Economies adapt, they just do it more quickly than mother nature, so sucesses, and fuck ups are heavily magnified.

Business spending is up, and will continue to be up. Production is starting to max out, and overtime is picking back up. Hiring is already picking up, slowly.

Real economic improvement will be seen in Q2 '04. Hiring will begin in earnest in Q3. It will be late '05 to mid '06 before the economy is out of the recovery cycle. Until then, we will still be digging ourselves out.

This is all subject to change, if some collective shit hits the fan. Terrorist attacks, trade issues (esp with the Pacific Rim), the bullshit in Europe is just that.

Phwah, don't think you're anywhere near out of the woods yet. Continual outsourcing will make this an utterly jobless recovery even if the recovery can be sustained which is doubtful. Our desire for cheaper and cheaper shit is now fucking us up the arse and rightly so. Prepare to see the start of the long and rocky road to global weath equity. First the manufacturing went overseas, now the white collar work is starting to take the same route. Trade protectionism may win Bush some votes but it won't keep the jobs over there for long.

Enjoying globalisation yet?