Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/index.html
For confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death. Symptoms can include:
Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath
CDC believes at this time that symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS-CoV viruses.
It looks like this thing spreads really easily.
Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)
Via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
Good luck if your immune system is compromised...
Also remember to buy low in the stock market when day traders get stupid.
There is now a case in California. Dude wasn't traveling and has no known contacts with primary cases.
Given the 14 day incubation period, that means a ton of people are probably infected.
Yeah, I was listening to a Black Plague podcast recently, incubation period is a big deal.
Took my wife to urgent care last night. She had all the symptoms. 104 fever. I was pretty sure it was the kung flu, because I'm convinced it is already here. But they did a nose swab and it came back as regular old influenza (type A, whatever that means.)
She had gotten the flu shot, but I guess this is a different strain.
I think of COVID-19 as just another strain of the flu, and just about as dangerous.
My wife should be OK. She's staying home, but it ruins a big weekend of plans.
She wanted to crawl into bed last night after getting back from urgent care, but spent two hours coming up with sub plans for work.
At urgent care, they asked if she had been to China.
Mr. Clod is just barely over a moderately severe bout of flu-like illness (kept him out of work for almost a week, but nothing that needed hospital attention,) and now the rest of us all have it. Kids have been out of school since Tuesday.
I, too, believe it's already here and thoroughly widespread, and I think it's telling that a lot of people test negative at first, and then test positive up to 28 days after exposure. I'm actually hoping that we do already have it, and then we'll get better and have immunity for the remainder of the lockdown that is sure to happen to some degree in the coming months. Certainly the kids would appreciate a month or two of school closures.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
It was only a couple years ago that I first heard what sounded to me like the plausible explanation for why the winter months see more illness.
Droplets stay airborne longer in the winter because the cold air is drier than humid air in the summer, and the little atomized spittle droplets dry out more and are lighter and float around on air currents longer than in the wet humid summer. They are simply suspended in the air longer, giving you more time to breathe them in.
Indoors, the air is heated, and it gets super dry. Just think about your lotion needs in the winter. There are virus particles floating around all over the place.
Public buildings should install misters like in the vegetable section of the grocery stores just to keep everything damp and knock the germs to the floor.
Yeah, it seems like this thing is probably already widespread. The symptoms being the same as every other damn thing is going to mask it for a while.
It was only a couple years ago that I first heard what sounded to me like the plausible explanation for why the winter months see more illness.
Plus, people are concentrated indoors for more of the day.
Other people, I mean. I'm indoors most of the day either way...
I have a gaming controller coming from China. I'm gonna soak the package down with Lysol before handling/opening it.
I'm wondering if it will get quarantined at some point along the way?
I think of COVID-19 as just another strain of the flu, and just about as dangerous.
From what I gather, it's actually less dangerous on a case-by-case basis, but also more contagious.
Plus, people are concentrated indoors for more of the day.
Other people, I mean. I'm indoors most of the day either way...
Yeah. I never bought that argument. The overwhelming majority of people are inside all year long.
All this has got to be made worse by the pollution in eastern China. People already face a respiratory disaster just waking up in the morning.
Droplets stay airborne longer in the winter because the cold air is drier than humid air in the summer, and the little atomized spittle droplets dry out more and are lighter and float around on air currents longer than in the wet humid summer.
Like the poop molecules. ;)
All this has got to be made worse by the pollution in eastern China. People already face a respiratory disaster just waking up in the morning.
Yeah, we'd expect worse outcomes there.
Plus, 68% of Chinese men are smokers, including 41% of male physicians. China accounts for slightly more than half of all smokers, worldwide.
From what I gather, it's actually less dangerous on a case-by-case basis, but also more contagious.
Something like 2 to 3% die from this virus. Typical influenzas only kill 1.3%. That alone makes it more dangerous than other flues. Apparently it can also be spread by urine and feces. Even SARs was not spread by that method. Isolated people in their cabins (having no contact even with crew members) got sick on the Diamond Princess in large numbers. This one is clearly much more contagious than SARs. Maybe as contagious as Ebola.
We do not yet know of additional methods that can spread this disease. Only speculate that a two week quarantine is sufficient. No problem. Tests can only report one had the virus - not report if one is still contagious.
Medical people must wait for a naive politician to authorize us to have knowledge. That should be the Surgeon General's job. But he is not a right wing political extremist. His entire life has only been about medicine and health. Worse, he is black. So he might not be extremist enough.
Winter means a virus lasts much longer. Many viruses only last ten minutes if warm. But can remain intact for hours in a cold environment. Wet environments also prolong potency. That is the life expectancy of a typical virus. Unknown yet is the life expectancy of this virus. However a package shipped from China could only have degraded proteins - a threat to no one. The way customs works, it would sit around too long.
How much preparation has America done? Only 200 testing kits exist in one state. Only the CDC has labs that can test for it. Obviously, American should have been stocking tens or hundreds of thousands test kits in each state. And labs should have been constructed/expanded so that testing can be done at the county and state levels. But our government, at highest level, had been downplaying their inaction. Since it might impact his re-election. It is about image - not about protecting Americans.
An ostrich position was obvious. Even increased manufacturing of facemask was done only by a few manufacturers. Because the Federal government kept saying, "Don't worry. Be happy." Did not even start stocking them.
Americans might finally learn that America has done virtually nothing (except ask questions at immigration points). But the President has created a Czar as the only spokesman. He can silence all medical people at Federal and maybe at State levels. Job was assigned to a politician who has less experience in disasters that Brownie did in Katrina.
Somehow he will know what to tell us; what we need to know. Because he is loyal to a man whose long history is to lie. To harm all others - to advance only himself. So Pence can be trusted?
A man whose long history was to even stiff his contractors and employees. Right wing extremists also said that is good. So he knew two month ago what was good for us?
Make Urbane Guerrilla the Czar. He too is just as knowledgeable. Also has healthy ability to invent lies. Has a history of promoting fiction to advance an extremist right wing position. Since that (and not America) is most important. He also would silence medical people who expose extremist lies. Since that would be in our interest?
America is unprepared for a pandemic. Past two months were wasted by doing nothing. No problem. We now have a Czar so that informed medical people must get permission to explain a threat, what must be done, and to be helpful.
We can test for other influenzas. So one does not have Covid-19 if they first test positive for other influenzas - the assumption. Only if other tests are negative, then can one be tested by a scarce Covid-19 test kit. And then wait even longer for that kit to be shipped to the CDC - the only place it can be tested.
No problem. Pence (or UG) will then tell them whether they can inform your doctor. "Trust me. I am a right wing extremist who also said Saddam had WMDs."
Yeah, we'd expect worse outcomes there.
Wuhan province is in central China. Not on the east side where air quality is inferior.
Wuhan is also a major transportation center - similar to what Chicago is in America.
I have a gaming controller coming from China. I'm gonna soak the package down with Lysol before handling/opening it.
I'm wondering if it will get quarantined at some point along the way?
My friend does this with
every delivery. He says he has to "wash the China off it"
The federal government refuses to take this seriously, even as tertiary cases are popping up in California.
https://apnews.com/57177e2e35d7d0d518361166935c614e
Solano County Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas said public health officials have identified dozens of people — but less than 100 — who had close contact with the woman. Those people are quarantined in their homes. A few have shown symptoms and are in isolation, Matyas said.
Officials are not too worried, for now, about casual contact, because federal officials think the coronavirus is spread only through “close contact, being within six feet of somebody for what they’re calling a prolonged period of time,” said Dr. James Watt, interim state epidemiologist at the California Department of Public Health.
Dr Watt has already been proven wrong. Prior to saying that. As TW says above, it is already known that the virus can linger on surfaces for a very long time.
Wuhan province is in central China. Not on the east side where air quality is inferior.
Sadly no. I look at the PM2.5 maps all the time
Greenpeace has a list of PM2.5 rank averages in 74 cities and Wuhan is 14th.
Real-time maps of PM2.5 have shown particulate matter DOWN in recent times.
Here is windy.com's PM2.5 in China right now. But generally, in the recent past when you look at this map, it is deep orange over Wuhan. Greenpeace put the 2013 average at
88.7 (Beijing 90.1).
Compare with NYC's averages which are around
10.
The very worst air pollution in the world is India's, these days.
Plus, 68% of Chinese men are smokers, including 41% of male physicians. China accounts for slightly more than half of all smokers, worldwide.
That's not an issue according to the US's man in charge of coordinating our response. By his stats, less than 33% of smokers die of smoking-related illness, and less than 10% even get lung cancer!
I have a gaming controller coming from China. I'm gonna soak the package down with Lysol before handling/opening it.
I'm wondering if it will get quarantined at some point along the way?
I just read it can live on surfaces for up to nine days.
Shipping,
from China, was $1, btw.
Real-time maps of PM2.5 have shown particulate matter DOWN in recent times.
Wuhan should be way down since the city has been in virtual shutdown for weeks with everyone ordered to stay home that hasn't been assigned a job.
That's not an issue according to the US's man in charge of coordinating our response. By his stats, less than 33% of smokers die of smoking-related illness, and less than 10% even get lung cancer!
Is he counting heart attack and stroke as smoking-related illnesses?
But smoking drives away biting insects which bring Malaria, Lyme, and stuff.
Is he counting heart attack and stroke as smoking-related illnesses?
I have no idea where he got his statistics; I just thought it was remarkable that he thought that a 1/3 chance of death supported his "smoking doesn't kill" premise.
I just read it can live on surfaces for up to nine days.
That would be unusual for a virus. And the problem. Since no such number has been reported from responsible sources. Even a two week quarantine is only a best guess. After two months warning, we still do not have any serious information. In part, due to top management totally ignoring it. The 'power that be' has only recently decided it is a problem ... because the stock market finally tanked.
This all goes right back to what Steve Bannon (Trump's top campaign manager) said in TV interviews. Trump's attention span is less than 30 seconds. His campaign was tapered around issues that a 30 second attention span could grasp. Obviously this virus was too complicated until the stock market crashed. Only then was he able to grasp that one "less then 30 second" fact.
I have no idea where he got his statistics; I just thought it was remarkable that he thought that a 1/3 chance of death supported his "smoking doesn't kill" premise.
Pence has always been a tool. Trashing Indiana's economy to show how much he hated the LGBT community comes to mind.
He's like something out of Dilbert, really.
That would be unusual for a virus.
But not unheard of. The smallpox virus could survive for up to 21 days on a room temperature surface.
Under ideal situations, it could last for
years.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2538235/But not unheard of. The smallpox virus could survive for up to 21 days on a room temperature surface.
Which is why it was obvious two months ago - serious research was needed.
Which brings us right back to a concept well understood by people who come from where the work gets done. 85% of all problems are direct traceable to top management. In this case, a boss with a less than 30 second attention span. (As publicly stated by his close ally.)
Your venom is dripping. You were OK until the last sentence, but it's Xi Jinping the heat should be directed at.
He's like something out of Dilbert, really.
:rotflol: so scarily true
There is now a case in California. Dude wasn't traveling and has no known contacts with primary cases.
Given the 14 day incubation period, that means a ton of people are probably infected.
FIRST!
That's just ...
great.
:(
... but it's Xi Jinping the heat should be directed at.
Another example of "85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management." Curious. Both Xi and Trump have communist attitudes. Everyone works to advance them.
China's problem was clearly defined in an obituary in The Economist. A 33 year old hero was jailed in less than 24 hours for discovering and posting the threat - in Weibo - a Chinese version of Facebook.
Ironically, in January, an 82 year old patient did not have symptoms. So he treated her glaucoma and took no precautions. He did not know she came from the same building that his infected patients had come from. So he died in February.
Eventually Chinese at highest levels admitted the little people knew what they were saying. But communists find it difficult to see that in time.
Te Don is doing something similar. But he silenced the people who come from where the work gets done. Silence the truth rather than address an obvious threat two months ago.
How anti-American is he? Pence is saying no Americans need masks. Reality, there are only 40 million masks available - because Trump did nothing for two months. 3M finally has contracts to make more. So 3M only started hiring two days ago. Another example of how 85% of all problems are traceable to that diclicking scumbag.
You are irrelevant. Only health workers need masks - according to an administration more ignorant than George Jr. Trump supporters will deny that reality. We do not have enough and were not making them - thank you Donald.
The president also said we will soon have a vaccine. Lying business school graduates are always obvious to the educated. He provided no numbers - the indication he is lying. A vaccine will not be available for one to 1.5 years. Don't worry if you are the 3% who are dead.
He also blame a stock market crash, in part, on actions not taken by the Federal Reserve. Again, he counts on Americans being dumb. Since we have been in a recession, the Fed has already lowered rates three times - almost as low as possible. Due to the scumbag's tax cuts and welfare for the rich, the Fed has very little ammunition left to soften (address) a recession. The dumb business school graduate does not even know that - due to a less than 30 second attention span.
We know the oncoming recession will only be made worse by Covid-19. What we do not yet know is a relevant number - how bad. Don't expect The Don to provide any. Otherwise, even his brainwashed supporters might realize he really is that dumb.
[YOUTUBE]yptXkLglKkA[/YOUTUBE]
In the past 24 hours, maybe four Corvid-19 infections have been located. Worse, none have any apparent connection to infected people. Implying there are many already infected people who have no symptoms. And unknown are many others who are also infected.
Again, we had two months to prepare and to learn. To even stockpile protective suits, facemask, and stock diagnotic labs. America's health system was obstructed by a president with a 30 second attention span. Whose "Don't worry; be happy" believes that a vaccine will soon arrive.
He then promised to put abut $1.2 billion into Covid-19 prevention. What did he not say? It will be paid for by cancelling ongoing research into HIV ($half billion) and from other research programs. Funny how he forgot to mention those numbers. As any good (criminal) business school graduate does when stiffing contractors and promoting SNAFU - situation normal; all fucked up.
Who so hates humanity as to still like (or believe) that scumbag.
He completely ignored Covid-19 until it affected something he understands - a stock market. Since he probably needs a robust market to maintain Ponzi schemes.
He cannot post even one fact in support of a Nazi and White Supremacist fan who has a 30 second attention span. Instead posts a video as if it is somehow relevant. As if insults are better than honesty and numbers.
If not brainwashed, then facts can be disputed. Apparently insults will somehow avert Covid-19. Don't worry. Be happy.
Meanwhile watch so many patriotic Americans work their asses off in these next months to lessen damage and deaths created by Trump's 30 second attention span.
As his Secretary of State said, he is a moron. He was being polite.
I vomited an amazing amount last night putting the kaibosh (?) on the ski plans for today. Pete's blaming the chicken. Once again not Covfefe ;) but not cool.
hope you're on the mend today.
BTW, my wife with the flu was basically 100% better after 48 hours. I suppose the flu shot she got might have made her bout shorter than it would have been. And the Tamiflu sped the recovery too. Whatever it was, she was symptom free after 48 hours, and was fever free after only 24 hours. Yay!
That's good, we don't want anything lingering.
....My wife should be OK. She's staying home, but it ruins a big weekend of plans....
Im so sorry buddy,ill say a prayer for your wife....
I hope she feels better soon :)
A seminar at Michigan Law focused on cholera, Spanish flu, polio, AIDS, SARS, and Ebola. Every disease provokes its own unique dread and its own complex public reaction, but themes recurred across outbreaks.
1. Governments are typically unprepared, disorganized, and resistant to taking steps necessary to contain infectious diseases, especially in their early phases.
2. Local, state, federal, and global governing bodies are apt to point fingers at one another over who’s responsible for taking action. Clear lines of authority are lacking.
3. Calibrating the right governmental response is devilishly hard. Do too much and you squander public trust (Swine flu), do too little and people die unnecessarily (AIDS).
4. Public officials are reluctant to publicize infections for fear of devastating the economy.
5. Doctors rarely have good treatment options. Nursing care is often what’s needed most. Medical professionals of all kinds work themselves to the bone in the face of extraordinary danger.
6. In the absence of an effective treatment, the public will reach for unscientific remedies.
7. No matter what the route of transmission or the effectiveness of quarantine, there’s a desire to physically separate infected people.
8. Victims of the disease are often thought to deserve the affliction, especially when those victims are mainly from marginalized groups.
9. We plan, to the extent we plan at all, for the last pandemic. We don’t do enough to plan for the next one.
10. Historical memory is short. When diseases fall from the headlines, the public forgets and preparation falters.
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/contagion/Trouble with sick workers? Just import [strike]slave labor[/strike] hard workers from your [strike]minority reeducation camps[/strike] migrant labor force.
Guardian: China transferred detained Uighurs to factories used by global brands – report
At least 80,000 Uighurs have been transferred from Xinjiang province, some of them directly from detention centres, to factories across China that make goods for dozens of global brands, according to a report from the Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
Using open-source public documents, satellite imagery, and media reports, the institute identified 27 factories in nine Chinese provinces that have used labourers transferred from re-education centres in Xinjiang since 2017 as part of a programme known as “Xinjiang aid”.
In conditions that “strongly suggest forced labour”, the report says, workers live in segregated dormitories, are required to study Mandarin and undergo ideological training. They are frequently subjected to surveillance and barred from observing religious practices. According to government documents analysed by the ASPI, workers are often assigned minders and have limited freedom of movement.
The factories were part of supply chains providing goods for 83 global brands, the report found, including Apple, Nike and Volkswagen among others.
To be clear, they already were in forced-labor camps, they've just changed locations. It absolutely does not excuse the Chinese treatment of the Uighurs overall, but honestly it's probably better for them in the factories than where they were.
Which is why it was obvious two months ago - serious research was needed.
Which brings us right back to a concept well understood by people who come from where the work gets done. 85% of all problems are direct traceable to top management. In this case, a boss with a less than 30 second attention span. (As publicly stated by his close ally.)
No argument here.
Hell, his insistence that you hire doctors and researchers after the epidemic has already started is all you really need to hear about that.
Trouble with sick workers? Just import [strike]slave labor[/strike] hard workers from your [strike]minority reeducation camps[/strike] migrant labor force.
Guardian: China transferred detained Uighurs to factories used by global brands – report
To be clear, they already were in forced-labor camps, they've just changed locations. It absolutely does not excuse the Chinese treatment of the Uighurs overall, but honestly it's probably better for them in the factories than where they were.
But but free trade...
FIRST!
That's just ... great.
:(
Now second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth. Tragic. There's a nursing home(?) where most of the deaths have occurred,but some in the the next county. Governor Inslee has declared an emergency. Schools have been closed. No masks or hand sanitizer to be found. Read an article today about how to make your own hand sanitizer, 2/3 99% alcohol mixed with 1/3 aloe vera gel or vegetable glycerin.
It feels grim.
Now second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth. Tragic. There's a nursing home(?) where most of the deaths have occurred,but some in the the next county. Governor Inslee has declared an emergency. Schools have been closed. No masks or hand sanitizer to be found. Read an article today about how to make your own hand sanitizer, 2/3 99% alcohol mixed with 1/3 aloe vera gel or vegetable glycerin.
It feels grim.
Masks: Three bandanas. Wear them around your face like you're robbing a train, change them out regularly, wash daily.
Sorted.
Be safe out there V. We are under assault from the plain old flu here but it's only a matter of time.
It's natural, it's organic, it's Libertarian, thinning the herd, culling the weak and unfit. Economic opportunity abounds, that $12 a week we were wasting on Grannie can be put to better use. Selling people what they think they need for obscene profits. Raise the cost of funerals to push people into buying insurance so we can raise the cost of funerals. The Soylent Green processing kills all viruses and germs.
PSA: you can make your own hand sanitizer, as long as it has as least 60% alcohol content.
Also PSA: Knob Creek makes a single barrel 120 proof bourbon.
Also PSA: Knob Creek makes a single barrel 120 proof bourbon.
We are still learning how this virus is transmitted. Through a stomach? Is 120 proof strong enough?
Why would anyone waste good bourbon on their hands? If you are going to go, then go happy.
120 proof is barely 60%, 750ml for $53.
A quart of 91% isopropyl is $2.59 at target.
Suit yourself.
We are still learning how this virus is transmitted. Through a stomach? Is 120 proof strong enough?
Why would anyone waste good bourbon on their hands? If you are going to go, then go happy.
Drink a pint of whiskey to get those viruses drunk, then open your mouth and stick out your tongue so they will stagger out to the end of it and fall off out of your body.
If the end of your tongue sticks out further than the rest of your body.
If the end of your tongue sticks out further than the rest of your body.
stuff he said
I have visions of Osmosis Jones
Mr. Clod's entire company just shut down their offices indefinitely; everyone working from home until further notice. They have a Seattle branch, but this applies to all branches.
We have 1 more week until spring break. I'd lay money on our school remaining closed after that.
Interesting.
I'm going to need to review our remote computing procedures. I do it very rarely.
Let's say you had a wedding scheduled for May 2 at Niagara Falls, with 25 people driving up to attend, including 3 people over 80 and 1 two-year-old. What would you do?
Indoors, catered, major hotel chain
I'd say you'll be at the whims of the hotel. If they cancel closer to May, you'll get your deposit back. If you cancel now, you won't. So you might as well just keep the date set, and see what happens.
The 80+ year olds may need to skip it when the time comes, but that could be true of any rescheduled date in the future, too. For comparison, the Spanish Flu circled the globe for over a year, and had multiple major waves of infection in all countries. China, for example, is already seeing cases *imported* from other countries now. I suspect we'll do better than we did in 1918, but not by much.
What's my role in the wedding?
If I'm the groom or in the wedding party, it's up to the decision of the bride and groom.
If I'm a guest, pass.
We might be stable by May? China is restricting travel in now...
If people are driving up, they won't be exposed to any more germs than if they were going to the grocery store.
If I were a guest, I would likely attend, unless major shit hits the fan.
But then again, I ride the Metro every day. My tolerance for being exposed to shit is a lot higher than most people's, and my immune system is likely stronger for it.
Then again, it's attitudes like mine that make the 50-59 demographic the highest infection rate in China.
Is the couple registered for wedding gifts at a medical supply store?
Enough for wedding party and guests:
masks
gloves
gowns
booties
hand sanitizer
snot rags (tissues)
barf bags
aspirin
children's Tylenol
...etc.
Also, calling it here first: the Pope's gonna be dead by the end of next week.
Also, calling it here first: the Pope's gonna be dead by the end of next week.
LOL. That’s so specific.
The Vatican announced very, very firmly that he doesn't have it. He totally has it.
Also, calling it here first: the Pope's gonna be dead by the end of next week.
That's how the Roman Curia will kill him. Then blame it on failures by the Chinese. Since they said it, it must be true. So the Curia will not even be suspect.
Until we hear about it years later on "Unsolved Mysteries".
Let's say you had a wedding scheduled for May 2 at Niagara Falls, with 25 people driving up to attend, including 3 people over 80 and 1 two-year-old. What would you do?
invite me.....
oh wait, regarding COVID? go for it. They don't allow cruise ships at that time of year -flow too fast from melting snow. And invite me. I need a day out. US or CA side? :D
you'll be fine. Like the wise one says, let the hotel call the shots..... Do the couple in question have any wedding insurance? might not be a bad idea if doable, would cover stuff not paid to hotel....
Today I sat in on an emergency conference call to manage a single DNS entry, so that a major international corporation could report tomorrow morning that they are able to have 50,000 people work from home if necessary.
I just got a CNN email alert that the first case in Virginia has been identified, and the patient is in a hospital 6 miles from my house. A local person.
First of all, why am I getting CNN emails? I never signed up for that.
And second, it's amazing how when you actually test for something, you start to find it. You aren't going to see it unless you look for it. This thing is everywhere already.
I'm wondering now. I think this is fake news. I think the "CNN" email I got was an anti-phishing test being done by my employer.
There is one guy on staff who is supposed to trick us by sending us fake emails and getting us to click on links. If we fail the tests, we have to undergo additional training.
This email is from... Wait. I don't want to paste the text because they can search for it and find me on the Cellar.
Here's a screenshot :
[ATTACH]69960[/ATTACH]
I can't find the email address on the web. And I can't find any story on the web about an infection in my town.
The headline misspells "it's" by putting the apostrophe where it doesn't belong, making it "it is" instead of "its." That's the only giveaway that this email is fake, plus I never signed up for CNN.
Sorry for the distraction. If this is a test, it's in very poor taste.
Testing for the virus means identifying a possible victim, getting a test kit (which is not easily obtained), sending it to Atlanta (that is a day and a half at least), 24 hours to do that test, and only then are results known.
For example, one possible Covid-19 infected person in Northern Virginia was still awaiting results as of yesterday. A person is infected for three days before doctors can even say he is infected.
Pennsylvania is spending a quarter $million to setup just one testing lab only outside Philadelphia. Now that the CDC was permitted to address the threat and finally had a testing solution. A threat that was obvious two months ago - when it was being ignored at the highest levels of government (we know who that was).
Is someone from your neighborhood infected? Could be. As of yesterday, they were still awaiting many days for the only lab (Atlanta) to do testing. One day just to get that test kit to the lab - if expedited. Because we ignored the threat two months ago.
Since he is still awaiting results, some will immediately conclude he is already infected because he was quarantined.
There is one guy on staff who is supposed to trick us by sending us fake emails and getting us to click on links. If we fail the tests, we have to undergo additional training.
That genuinely sounds like a fun job.
--snip
If this is a test, it's in very poor taste.
If it's a test, it may well be in very poor taste. I'm not willing or able to judge the standards at your company.
However, if it's a test, it's an excellent example. The major impetus the bad guys are trying activate to is a sense of urgency. They want to stampede you into clicking on something. I've seen it happen. I've been stampeded by the bad guys myself. This is the perfect bait for such a trap.
There is one guy on staff who is supposed to trick us by sending us fake emails and getting us to click on links. If we fail the tests, we have to undergo additional training.
He's literally paid to be a F*ckedCompany troll.
That's living the damn dream, that's what that is.
Pete's company does this. I think the IT department does a giveaway, like dinner or something, to one of the people who reports the suspicious activity.
Memo just came down from the top. Apparently some powerful people in the firm were not amused.
[ATTACH]69962[/ATTACH]
The memo went on to talk about the Coronavirus and told us to wash our hands, don't travel to China or Italy for spring break, and stay home if we are sick. Lots of other details, but that's the gist of it.
I need to brush up on remote computing. It's a little convoluted.
Thanks boss for perfectly making my point.
I'd bet the rent some "powerful" person "at the top" took the bait.
… The memo went on to talk about the Coronavirus ...
Did it say if the Chinese have patented it?
From OSHA
Purpose or Intended Use
Surgical masks
• May include masks labeled as surgical, laser, isolation, dental, or medical procedure masks
• Are primarily intended to protect the patient, not the wearer, from the wearer's saliva and respiratory secretions
• May also help protect the wearer against exposure to microorganisms, body fluids, and large particles in the air but are not tight fitting and likely have substantial inward leakage for particles and organisms
• Are designed to cover the mouth and nose loosely but are not sized for individual fit
• Are not NIOSH (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) approved
Surgical N95 respirators
• Surgical N95 respirators are designed to reduce but cannot eliminate the wearer’s exposure to airborne biological contaminants. They do not eliminate the risk of illness, disease, or death.
• Form a tight seal over the mouth and nose.
• Require fit-testing and must be adjusted to your face to provide the intended effectiveness of filtering 95 percent of particles with a mass median diameter of 0.3 micrometers.
• Employers and users are required to follow the OSHA Respiratory Protection Standard, 29CFR 1910.134, as well as other state or local regulations, as appropriate.
• Have specific use instructions, warnings, and limitations for use in health care environments.
• Are NIOSH certified.
• Are fluid resistant to a certified level measured against a stream of artificial blood directed at the respirator.
Industrial N95 respirators
• Are designed to reduce but cannot eliminate the wearer's exposure against certain airborne particles and aerosols free of oil.
• Form a tight seal over the mouth and nose.
• Employers and users are required to follow the OSHA Respiratory Protection Standard, 29CFR 1910.134, as well as other state or local regulations, as appropriate.
• These respirators (without valves) also can help prevent exhalation of contamination by the wearer to others in the work environment.
• Require fit-testing and must be adjusted to your face to provide the intended effectiveness of filtering 95 percent of particles with mass median diameter of 0.3 micrometers.
• Have specific use instructions, warnings, and limitations for use in industrial environments.
• Are NIOSH certified.
• Are not certified to be fluid resistant.
Approval and Certification
Surgical masks
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) clears surgical masks for sale in the United States. FDA does not test and certify the respirator. Instead, they clear the respirator for sale after reviewing the manufacturer's test data and proposed claims. The manufacturer performs and submits the results from several tests, including particle filtration efficiency, bacterial filter efficiency, fluid resistance, etc.
The particulate filter efficiency gives an indication of the quality of the health care surgical mask. However, this rating is completely different and far less rigorous than the NIOSH N95 filter efficiency rating and should not be used as a comparison between the two.
Surgical N95 respirators
Surgical N95 respirators are approved by NIOSH as to their respiratory protection efficiency and resistance and other NIOSH requirements. They are also separately cleared by FDA as medical devices. FDA clears surgical masks for sale in the United States but does not test and certify the respirator. Instead, the agency clears the respirator for sale after reviewing the manufacturer's test data and proposed claims. The manufacturer performs and submits the results from several tests, including particle filtration efficiency, bacterial filter efficiency, fluid resistance, etc.
The biological filter efficiency gives an indication of the quality of the health care surgical mask. However, this rating is completely different and far less rigorous than the NIOSH filter efficiency rating and should not be used as a comparison between the two. Surgical N95 respirators and N95 industrial respirators share the same NIOSH requirements. NIOSH also has other efficiency certification levels for industrial respirators (see below).
Industrial respirators (including industrial N95 respirators) and Surgical N95 respirators
In the United States, NIOSH is responsible for testing and certifying respirators to be used in the workplace. NIOSH not only reviews the manufacturer's test data, but also performs its own independent tests on the respirators in NIOSH's governmental laboratories to verify the manufacturer's results. The tests include filter efficiency, degradation, and flow rate, to name a few. In addition to testing the respirators during the submittal process, NIOSH also will periodically purchase respirators in the field and test them to make sure the respirators are performing to their original certification.
Once the respirator is initially approved, NIOSH will certify its classification as N, R, or P and its filter efficiency as 95 percent, 99 percent, or 99.97 percent. It is also important to note that even though a respirator just by its use often helps to prevent the wearer from contaminating the environment; it cannot be considered a surgical mask unless it has been cleared by the FDA.
Surgical masks
The most important thing to remember about surgical masks is that they are not designed to pass a fit test. As explained above, their purpose is to help protect the environment and other nearby persons from the wearer's contaminants. When many surgical masks are worn, they will have gaps around the edges that allow many small particles to enter the respiratory system of the wearer. Even tighter-fitting surgical masks will have some gaps that allow small particles to enter the wearer’s respiratory system.
Surgical N95 and industrial N95 respirators
Respirators are designed to seal the respirator to the face and pass a fit test. Under Respiratory Protection Standard 29 CFR 1910.134, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration requires the wearer of a respirator to be fit tested before he or she can use the respirator in a contaminated environment. OSHA also requires the wearer to perform user seal checks on the respirator before each use, as well as comply with the other elements of a comprehensive respiratory protection program in accordance with 29 CFR 1910.134.
If the wearer is unable to obtain a proper fit, he or she must not enter the contaminated area. For more information on this standard, visit the OSHA website, www.osha.gov.
A properly fit-tested N95 respirator will greatly reduce the number of small particles that will enter the wearer’s respiratory system, as compared to a surgical mask that is not NIOSH approved. The extent of that reduction is a function of the fit of the mask, its filtration efficiency level (with respirators available from 95 percent to 99.97 percent filter efficiency), and the wearer’s proper donning and wearing of the respirator according to the training the employer provides as required by OSHA regulations.
Length of Wear
Surgical masks
While each facility has its own policy, surgical masks in general are discarded after each procedure. They are typically worn only for specific procedures.
Surgical N95 and industrial N95 respirators
Respirators must be put on and taken off in an area outside of the contaminated area. Putting a respirator on or taking it off even for a few seconds in a contaminated area can expose the wearer to significant levels of hazards. Each facility has its own policy on disposal of the respirator, depending on use conditions and the type of hazard that these products are being used to protect against.
I have a couple of these (twin port version) and always have one of them in my car:
https://www.avon-protection.com/products/fm53.htm
You can get them on Amazon (filters, required, sold separately):
Avon FM53My in-laws visited today. MIL in particular seemed completely clueless about the whole thing. She was stunned to hear of Mr. Clod's office closing, and about our school preparing for distance learning plans in the face of inevitable closures. She kept referring to the coronavirus as "the flu." She talked about her big vacation in June, and I didn't have the heart to tell her that her flight will almost certainly be cancelled, and by then she won't want to leave her house anyway.
My in-laws visited today. MIL in particular seemed completely clueless about the whole thing. She was stunned to hear of Mr. Clod's office closing, and about our school preparing for distance learning plans in the face of inevitable closures. She kept referring to the coronavirus as "the flu." She talked about her big vacation in June, and I didn't have the heart to tell her that her flight will almost certainly be cancelled, and by then she won't want to leave her house anyway.
https://apnews.com/921ad7f1f08d7634bf681ba785faf269?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&fbclid=IwAR14p1COTtzwXEB7lZFfePNX75sBG7hYFSAUjK4n4wN7i0xq4tH-Hcsn_fw
NEW YORK (AP) — The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly and physically fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines because of the new coronavirus, a federal official told The Associated Press.
And if there's any question of motive, here...
But Trump also detoured from that message, calling Washington state’s governor a “snake” and saying he’d prefer that people exposed to the virus on a cruise ship be left aboard so they wouldn’t be added to the nation’s tally.
(bolding mine)
I wouldn't want them added to the nation's tally of disease vectors either.
If they're quarantined while contagious, they're effectively no longer a vector.
Quarantine does not solve the problem. Apparently people are contagious even before they have symptoms.
Experience aboard the Diamond Princess suggests that this virus can spread airborne. Not just from contact spewed from an infected person. But this is an even greater problem. How the contagious spread this virus is either unknown or is being withheld by top government officials (ie Pence). That is his job. Obstruct information - to protect the administration.
We should have known long ago (had government started addressing the problem over two months ago) how this virus spreads, how long it can survive on surfaces (or if airborne), if it can pass through the skin, and how long a person can be contagious before symptoms appear.
Instead we have White House lies that a vaccine will soon be available. Reality - it cannot be available til at least next year. Lies that the public does not need facemasks. Lies because this president is more concerned with his reelection than in addressing any problem. He ignored it until the stock market eventually crashed. And we still do not have answers to those four questions.
Surely there are trustworthy governments elsewhere in the first world that are studying this thing. What do they have to say? Germany isn't corrupt, is it? Canada? France? What do their health departments say?
I wouldn't want them added to the nation's tally of disease vectors either.
If they're quarantined while contagious, they're effectively no longer a vector.
How'd that work out in Japan?
Surely there are trustworthy governments elsewhere in the first world that are studying this thing. What do they have to say? Germany isn't corrupt, is it? Canada? France? What do their health departments say?
Japan shut their schools down, asked for a 2 meter distance between people as much as possible, and said that sick people wear masks, not healthy people.
I say do all that plus bleach every doorknob in the plant every day before lunch.
how long it can survive on surfaces (or if airborne), if it can pass through the skin, and how long a person can be contagious before symptoms appear.
You're correct. These are the most important pieces of information that are required.
And we're not going to find out, at least not through the US government, because all Trump can do is worry about "how it makes him look," and Pence is only good for prayer breakfasts.
Thank goodness Congress allocated millions to the CDC in December
...
to study gun controlThank goodness Congress allocated millions to the CDC in December
...to study gun control
They also study cancer and mental illness.
But yes, that is more the bailiwick of BATF.
The VA is recommending that veterans best response to Covid-19 is to get a flu shot.
The VA is recommending that veterans best response to Covid-19 is to get a flu shot.
Getting a flu shot is never a bad idea, but it is pretty much useless against the coronavirus.
They also study cancer and mental illness.
But yes, that is more the bailiwick of BATF.
I don't think that the BATF does health effect studies, it's a law enforcement agency. If we're going strictly on name-of-agency criticisms, NIH might be a better match, just because it doesn't specifically have the word "disease" in its name.
You're correct. These are the most important pieces of information that are required.
And we're not going to find out, at least not through the US government, because all Trump can do is worry about "how it makes him look," and Pence is only good for prayer breakfasts.
Obviously, we will know that concern for the virus overrides concern for Trump when the media is busy sharing information about it, instead of sharing information about Trump.
And the same is true for us, in this forum
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/home/cleaning-disinfection.html
Based on what is currently known about the novel coronavirus and similar coronaviruses that cause SARS and MERS, spread from person-to-person with these viruses happens most frequently among close contacts (within about 6 feet). This type of transmission occurs via respiratory droplets. On the other hand, transmission of novel coronavirus to persons from surfaces contaminated with the virus has not been documented. Transmission of coronavirus occurs much more commonly through respiratory droplets than through fomites. Current evidence suggests that novel coronavirus may remain viable for hours to days on surfaces made from a variety of materials. Cleaning of visibly dirty surfaces followed by disinfection is a best practice measure for prevention of COVID-19 and other viral respiratory illnesses in households and community settings.
If you are hearing about Trump duing COVID-19 news reports, you will know you are being under served by a media which used to be all about sharing important information, and is now entirely about politics, and will not inform you of the facts you need to know.
Obviously, we will know that concern for the virus overrides concern for Trump when the media is busy sharing information about it, instead of sharing information about Trump.
Instead? There is only concern for the virus when Trump's management of the US response is completely ignored?
I was going to rewrite to benefit your quibble, but I'm betting my point has been made.
History will tell us whether the flu, or panic over it, is a bigger problem. If history says flu, the Pres has been terrible. If history says panic, the Pres has been on point.
Place your bets
Transmission of coronavirus occurs much more commonly through respiratory droplets than through fomites. Current evidence suggests that novel coronavirus may remain viable for hours to days on surfaces
President's authorized doctor says it only last but a few hours. Which is it? Hours or days? If Trump has a Czar (who known nothing about medicine or emergency response) who is suppose to keep us informed with honest facts, then where are those facts?
UT, when will you stick to honest facts and not routinely post your irrelevant emotions? You are not the same person I knew some thirty years ago. Back then, UT would not be wasting bandwidth with words such as quibble. Meanwhile, as usual, I expect more quibble from you. It is becoming routine from a UT that went right wing extremist.
Reasons this 'flu' are different. It is much more contagious. And has a higher death rate. Apparently because infected people (as with Typhoid Mary) do not even know they are infecting their peers. Apparently do not have symptoms when first sick.
We don't really know why this virus is so more contagious. Facts (honesty) are in short supply. Combined with a president who also takes cheapshots at, for example, the Grand Princess.
So, we'll have to agree on levels of deaths vs levels of panic, does anyone want to weigh in on the number of deaths that would be worse than panic so far?
Starting point: flu kills 27-70,000 in US per year
Getting a flu shot is never a bad idea, but it is pretty much useless against the coronavirus.
Medicine must predict what flues will be active almost one year in advance. And then design a flu shot only for those particular viruses.
Current flu shot was not designed for this virus. Nobody knew it was coming until a (now dead) doctor in China discovered it. Flues typically do not spread this fast - are not this contagious. So a vaccine is not possible for about a year or maybe longer - despite lies from a president who is loved for constantly lying.
So, we'll have to agree on levels of deaths vs levels of panic, ...
Panic is created by a lack of honest information. And by social media where people cannot bother to learn facts before posting their emotions.
Death rate from a conventional flu is typically 1.3%. Death rate from Covid-19 is somewhere between 2 and 3%. In China, they are claiming 3.4%. Well they have more experience. But also have a problem with first obtaining honest data. But that much higher death rate is another reason for honest concern. And why it was obvious in the beginning of January that this virus was a serious threat.
It even killed the doctor who discovered it.
"Corona flu" is Trump's term for it; it's a different virus from the flu.
Avoiding a panic is more than just saying "don't panic" (sorry HHGTG), or "lots of people get better while going to work"; panic is also a failure. The problem with news reports about Trump's antics isn't the reports, it's the antics. To prevent panic, Trump should detail the pandemic preparation that is in progress, to demonstrate that such preparation exists in the short term, and in the long term to prevent sudden panic if it is sprung on people at the last minute, in the case that it needs to go into effect.
From a Paper made available to the CDC about 12 Feb 2020:
Results: Inadequate risk assessment regarding the urgency of the situation, and limited reporting on the virus within China has, in part, led to the rapid spread of COVID-19 throughout mainland China and into proximal and distant countries. Compared with SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has spread more rapidly, due in part to increased globalization and the focus of the epidemic. Wuhan, China is a large hub connecting the North, South, East and West of China via railways and a major international airport. The availability of connecting flights, the timing of the outbreak during the Chinese (Lunar) New Year, and the massive rail transit hub located in Wuhan has enabled the virus to perforate throughout China, and eventually, globally.
Conclusions: We conclude that we did not learn from the two prior epidemics of coronavirus and were ill-prepared to deal with the challenges the COVID-19 epidemic has posed. Future research should attempt to address the uses and implications of internet of things (IoT) technologies for mapping the spread of infection.
Science was discussing this threat two months ago. Trump, using his 30 second attention span, ignored it until the Stock Markets finally started crashing.
MERS was another coronavirus that remains undetected for two years. Its death rate was about 32%. A higher death rate and other factors are why the pandemic did not become global - a greater threat.
One reason why Covid-19 is not as widespread: Chinese published the genetic map of Covid within eight days of identifying it (at higher levels). Published those facts in the first half of Jan 2020. One reason why it did spread was noted earlier. Wuhan is the Chinese equivalent of Chicago.
Apparently one factor that must exist to limit widespread infection is a negatively pressurized room. Apparently this virus can spread by other factors beyond droplets - ie sneezing and coughing. Mistakes, since learned, resulted in an 18% to 20 some percent death rate from other coronaviruses among medical personal.
Possible infections via ventilation systems and other means has not been mentioned - and should be. Since we need such facts - to even avoid panic.
We could have been making face masks months ago. Face mask is to protect others. But the Feds did not act. 3M, Prestige, and other facemask companies only started hiring people and increasing production last week. Only after the government was finally given permission by a president to address it. Only after stock markets crashed.
"Corona flu" is Trump's term for it; it's a different virus from the flu.
Avoiding a panic is more than just saying "don't panic" (sorry HHGTG), or "lots of people get better while going to work"; panic is also a failure. The problem with news reports about Trump's antics isn't the reports, it's the antics. To prevent panic, Trump should detail the pandemic preparation that is in progress, to demonstrate that such preparation exists in the short term, and in the long term to prevent sudden panic if it is sprung on people at the last minute, in the case that it needs to go into effect.
It's my understanding that he was elected to wreck shit.
I actually contract with county health depts in my current gig. We've always wiped and washed materials and avoided sharing across kids. Now the shelves are empty of alcohol based wipes... Cuomo has the slav.. prison labor making alcohol sanitizers. I half expect home visits to end at some point, possibly when the local schools start closing. We still don't know enough to say it's panic time or stupid to panic. Last I read it was only known to spread by air but we really don't know do we.
Just got a phone call from my boss.
She is taking a survey of all of her staff's ability to work from home.
So they are making lists.
Just got a phone call from my boss.
She is taking a survey of all of her staff's ability to work from home.
So they are making lists.
Separating staff is useful so you don't lose an entire office out sick. Some companies are splitting into on and off site groups even if they can't work from home.
Possible infections via ventilation systems and other means has not been mentioned - and should be. Since we need such facts - to even avoid panic.
Exactly: we need facts we
don't have, in order to avoid panic!
(Since it's
not proven whether ventilation systems can transmit it -- but like my CDC text noted, most cases are from close contact of 6 feet or less)
Another random thought...
I got an email from our priest on Thursday afternoon, that a new policy at church is: no more dipping the bread into the chalice of wine at communion because of dirty fingers. But sipping from the cup was still allowed. Or you could decline altogether, and that's cool too.
At the service on Sunday, two days later, she made an announcement retracting the Thursday communication because a mandate had come down from the Bishop of Virginia. No wine. Bread only.
So then I read in the paper today (Monday) that there is a different priest in DC who was hospitalized, and tested positive on Thursday for the virus. That priest had given communion the previous Sunday (which presumably includes drinking first from the communal cup). He felt healthy when he gave communion and was symptom free, but felt like he had a mild cold a few days before that, from which he recovered. Mid-week last week, after giving communion, he crashed hard and went to the hospital, where he tested positive for Covid-19. He likely picked it up at a conference he attended in the Midwest two weeks ago.
The communal cup has always seemed gross to me, and I have always been bread dipper. But I'm glad they are cutting out the wine entirely.
The thing in all this that leaves the biggest impression on me is that the church, which is built on 2 thousand years of tradition, reacted extremely quickly as soon as the risk became obvious. Sick priest in neighboring jurisdiction on Thursday, and edict from Bishop on Saturday impacting services on Sunday.
We are also not supposed to shake hands during the peace. Fist bumps instead.
Quarantine does not solve the problem.
It's never been a choice between solving the problem in its entirety or doing nothing. Partial solutions like quarantine can have a huge impact on morbidity and mortality. There's no vaccine for coronavirus which is why we have to do everything we can to contain it.
Apparently people are contagious even before they have symptoms. ...
That's the way it is with the cold, flu and other viruses. That doesn't mean you do nothing to stop further transmission after the disease presents symptomatically; or, is identified through testing beforehand. People are also contagious for awhile after the disappearance of symptoms.
How'd that work out in Japan?
Doesn't matter. When done properly, it works. Doing it improperly doesn't invalidate the procedure.
Getting a flu shot is never a bad idea, but it is pretty much useless against the coronavirus.
It may improve the healthcare you receive for coronavirus. Flu prevention helps keep the Flu's burden on the healthcare system down in case the number of coronavirus patients goes up. That's why the Flu shot is being recommended.
Exactly: we need facts we don't have, in order to avoid panic!
Week after that CDC report was published (almost a month after preliminary facts from that report were known), the scumbag president said a Covid-19 threat was "over blown". He accused his enemies of inventing a threat - as any head of a communist party would also do. He said only 5 people had the virus. And expected that number to drop to one.
Of course he was lying. Science said so. But that meant honesty. This scumbag president and his supporters have contempt for honesty.
That is a leader averting panic? Exactly why Russians are openly campaigning for that lying Don. How to create panic? Lie. Destroy credibility. Create confusion and doubt. Encourage wild and extremist accusations on social media. Trump is doing that. The Russians love it.
Patriotic Americans know he lies constantly - multiple times daily according to domestic and international news services. Then entrenched extremists become even more entrenched. Russians want the resulting dissension. Confusion. Panic.
We need honest facts. Can people who know those facts tell us the truth? Of course not. The Don needs us to stay ignorant. If working for America, then a responsible and educated man was put in charge: Surgeon General. That is his job. But a Surgeon General would state things based in honesty and science.
Trump wants a man who will lie incessantly. So he assigned VP Pence the job of keeping us informed - and ignorant.
How is panic created? When a leader is so corrupt as to lie, then truth (and trust) cannot exist. When he assigns a political extremist the job of stifling facts and lying (to get Trump reelected), then panic is more likely.
He even lied about the Grand Princess. He said straight out, he did not want the number of Covid-19 infected people to double. A classic business school graduate. He is only worried about the numbers. Not about reality.
Grand Princess passengers should have been quarantined in locations where a coronavirus does not spread. Instead, that president wants a virus to remain trapped at sea where is will spread from tens to a thousand people. Then his numbers look better. He can blame the resulting deaths on some other nation. Classic example of a man with a 30 second attention span and no ethics. Who knows he can murder someone on 5th Ave and still get elected. He knows who in America he can lie to.
Four necessary questions remain unanswered. We need those answers to avoid panic. Access to knowledge must wait for VP Pence to decide "if we can handle the truth".
… The communal cup has always seemed gross to me, and I have always been bread dipper. But I'm glad they are cutting out the wine entirely. ...
They should replace it with lime juice.
I've heard that some like lime in their Corona.
Intentionally misquoted to misrepresent the point:
Quarantine does not solve the problem.
What was posted:
Quarantine does not solve the problem. Apparently people are contagious even before they have symptoms.
The point ignored by a reply.
Experience aboard the Diamond Princess suggests that this virus can spread airborne. Not just from contact spewed from an infected person. But this is an even greater problem.
We don't know how it spreads. Or those facts are being withheld by a VP whose job is to spin things for political advantage.
Does not matter if people are contagious after symptoms are gone. Currently irrelevant. Required is to detect people BEFORE symptoms exist. That is a problem. Because only 200 test kits were available (and not being produced) when clear was a threat that required maybe a million or more.
First, one was tested for other flu viruses. And then retested; to wait another three days for results from Atlanta. Only 200 test kits were available. Meaning infected people remained undetected for up to a week. A week after they had be contagious maybe a previous week.
All this takes so long because a scumbag president even claimed this threat was "over blown". His exact words. He stifled actions to get ahead of the threat. His own words say so.
Facts that say why a quarantine cannot solve the problem. Especially if this virus survives well past summer - as some scientists have been asking (before Pence took over). Another point relevant to a sentence taken out of context.
Another question. Once one has recovered, is he immune from another infection? We need answers - not political lies. Apparently we "cannot handle the truth".
Flu prevention helps keep the Flu's burden on the healthcare system down in case the number of coronavirus patients goes up.
A valid point.
We all know that if the Presidential reaction was heavy over-reaction, then the tw reaction would be that it was an unnecessary and expensive over-reaction.
Orange man bad; so, just take the opposite of orange man, always good.
That's why I said we need to take sides on whether the panic is worse, or the deaths.
If the regular flu kills up to 70,000, what say let's put the over-under for this level of panic at 80,000 dead. The panic has resulted in the loss of 6 trillion dollars in valuations of public companies, and the loss of who knows how much economic activity. So a number worse than the regular flu is warranted. 80,000, place your bets.
Intentionally misquoted to misrepresent the point:
Quotes are accurate.
What was posted:
A difference without a distinction.
Does not matter if people are contagious after symptoms are gone.
Illogical.
Facts that say why a quarantine cannot solve the problem.
Facts say quarantine can mitigate the problem (short term solution).
For problems such as this, there are often two solutions: a short term solution and a long term solution. The short term solution uses what is immediately available to make the best of a situation and reduce obstructive emotions (e.g. apprehension, fear, panic...etc.). The long tern solution is finding the definitive way to solve the problem.
But then I have the medical training, field and hospital experience, leadership training an experience to see the big picture. I can also separate medicine from politics.
I'm delighted to see that your opinions aren't prejudiced by any knowledge on the subject.
That's why I said we need to take sides on whether the panic is worse, or the deaths.
We know information averts panic. Information from sources of integrity. CDC cannot even say anything without Pence's approval. That is a formula for distrust. An extreme example is panic.
If Trump wanted honesty, then the Surgeon General was doing what Pence is now doing. Trump does not want us to be informed.
We need facts. Answers to four essential questions (and a fifth one) are not provided. A president is obviously lying about Covid-19 - constantly. He is a prescription for panic.
What is a greatest threat to the Covid-19 virus? An informed public who then knows what to do.
Misinformation even recommends drinking diluted bleach. And using skin creams to block Covid-19.
Panic created by misinformation and lies is exactly what Russia wants. Some early indications are Russian sources (ie Sputnik radio broadcasts) are promoting such misinformation including those cures.
We need trusted facts. That cannot happen when the president lies constantly. He even said Covid-19 is a lie promoted by his enemies. Not his "competitors" or people with different information sources. He has a Nixon attitude. "Enemies". So creating panic is to this president's advantage. It can get him reelected. How curious. Hitler did same to obtain power.
Facts say quarantine can mitigate the problem (short term solution).
That is not the point of that quoted sentence. It was quoted to intentionally misrepresent the point. Limbaugh and Fox News do that often.
Previous post explains, but again, the point. You intentionally ignore the point, again.
Irrelevant that a quarantine is part of a solution. That clearly was not the point. And was intentionally ignored. Obviously, quarantines are too little too late when people, without any symptoms and who cannot be tested (due to no test kits and a three day delay), were contagious and spreading this virus for at least a week.
Nice if you addressed the point. And not post distortions that you have now posted twice. Curious. That is the behavior of a Trump supporter.
I know exactly what he’d tell you, lies. He was no different from any other dwellar in the Cellar, they were all extremists. I tried to run the thread properly, by the book, but they fought me at every turn. The other posters wanted to walk around with their emotions hanging out, that’s all right, let them. Take the low road, tit for tat, no more, no less. But they encouraged the others to go around scoffing at me, and spreading wild rumors about talking in circles and the old Mission Accomplished refrain. I was to blame for Undertoad's incompetence and poor judgement. Sexobon was the honest poster, but not TW. Ah, but the quotes, that’s, that’s where I had them, they laughed at me and made jokes, but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt, and with geometric logic, that a duplicitous quote in the Coronavirus Thread did exist, and I’ve had reproduced that quote over a hundred times if they hadn’t pulled the soapbox out from under me. I, I know now they were only trying to protect their sanity. … Naturally, I can only cover these things from memory. If I left anything out, why, just ask me specific questions and I’ll be glad to answer them, one by one.
.
I like these charts and get what they are trying to promote. The area under the curves, which is the total number of cases, looks equal in both curves. Is the red area of the steep curve supposed to show that those patients are more likely to die because there is no room for them in the hospital?
Yeah if fewer old-timers are sick in the same time-frame we have the capacity to care for them. If we pretend it’s not serious and fail to take precautions the body count climbs. Little G’s boss spiked a fever and left work today... at a place where the kids are unlikely to handle coughs and sneezes appropriately.
Lol. Just got a text from her. They were just sanitizing the hell out of a residence feeling pretty good about themselves when one of the boys “straight up stuck his hand in the shift managers mouth.”
Well I hope he doesn't put it in his own mouth after that!
Kids will be the death of us all.
Parents call them kids, we non-parents call them disease vectors :D
That's why I get my flu shot in early October. So it will have full effect by Halloween when the little disease ridden monsters are out in force.
If the regular flu kills up to 70,000, what say let's put the over-under for this level of panic at 80,000 dead. The panic has resulted in the loss of 6 trillion dollars in valuations of public companies, and the loss of who knows how much economic activity. So a number worse than the regular flu is warranted. 80,000, place your bets.
I like the numbers game, with two caveats. One, everything I've read says flu kills around 36,000 per year in the U.S., and I think we have to go with exclusively U.S. numbers if we're talking about U.S. panic. Two, the death toll from COVID-19 may take a year or more to fully assess, because this thing is going to continue to kill people, fast or slow, until we've achieved some level of herd immunity...
That being said, I personally think over 100,000 deaths means it was a problem worth focusing on as much as we have--roughly three times the rate of the normal flu. My actual prediction is that it's going to kill over a million Americans.
Edit to add: I say this as someone who lost an uncle to the bad flu season two years ago. I don't know if it was technically his cause of death in the final paperwork, but his downturn started with a bout of flu caught at his nursing home, escalating to pneumonia, compounded by Parkinson's.
Excellent additions: US-only, I should have specified.
100,000 is a nice round number. I'm taking the under
I don't think that the BATF does health effect studies, it's a law enforcement agency. If we're going strictly on name-of-agency criticisms, NIH might be a better match, just because it doesn't specifically have the word "disease" in its name.
NIH is getting half.
they did the math
I am mildly alarmed, and processing something new..
I overheard my co-workers complaining about, in general, media hysteria over the coronavirus. Complaining about events being cancelled. Then it happened-- I heard, "The LIBERALS won't be happy until everything is shut down!" Followed by 10 minutes of complaining about LIBERALS and DEMOCRATS causing the coronavirus panic.
Folks, if you don't know, I work at in the healthcare sector. If people are treating a public health event as POLITICAL in nature, I'm afraid our civilization may have reached the point of no return. If not this, something, soon.
OMG. Yes. You just put on the They Live sunglasses and now you can see it too
now... didn''t want to tellya... but... look at your friends with the sunglasses on
it's infected everyone
politics makes us stupid
All the universities here closed today. If we want to politicize and conspiracy theorize ....isn't it dictatorships who want an uneducated populace? ;)
It is the ideal time not to be employed at a business that serves large numbers of the general public.
I'd take it over being unemployed, though. (well unless "it" was Macdonalds. Not there ....yet)
I just ordered a computer monitor and cable so I can have dual monitors at home if/when my firm closes. I can't do my job with just a single little 19 inch monitor.
I wonder if corona virus will reimburse me? Or Trump? Didn't he say something about freeing up money?
My daughter is home for spring break and has been told that break is going to be extended an additional week. (So far.)
We've been slowly stocking up on food, but with an extra mouth in the house, we need to get more. We have only about a week or two of food. It looks like a lot more than that though. 4 people eat a lot of food. We are running out of shelf space.
One admitted student college visit day for my son has been cancelled. The other school's day is in April and hasn't been cancelled (yet.) That one will likely cost us $1k in non-refundable plane tickets. We may visit anyway and walk around the closed campus. I was stupid though. Should have paid for the travel insurance on that one. I knew the virus was out there when I booked it.
Schools are still open. Work is still open. I'm still riding the Metro each day, but with roughly 1,000 cases in the US, and maybe 100 people in each metro car, there is only a 0.03% chance that I'll encounter one of them on any given ride, according to that chart above.
I'm still riding the Metro each day, but with roughly 1,000 cases in the US, and maybe 100 people in each metro car, there is only a 0.03% chance that I'll encounter one of them on any given ride, according to that chart above.
cough a little and you'll soon have a carriage to yourself and reduce your chances?
My daughter is home for spring break and has been told that break is going to be extended an additional week. (So far.)
mine gets spring break next week. They were told it was going to be one extra week, but now it's two...
And my sons' uni (which had spring break last week) cancelled everything for the rest of the week and is going online only for the rest of the semester starting Monday.
Of course my ditsy son broke his phone and spent hours playing games instead of ordering a new one so now can't access all the online stuff because it's dual factor authentication requiring a mobile phone..... sigh
Apparently somebody kicked Trump in the balls and it activated some brain cells. So extremists are now worried.
Trump has finally decided to address this pandemic with the attitude that he needed two month ago when it was that obvious. Maybe Merkel's comments were short enough to attract his 30 second attention span. Base upon pathetic responses by so many world leaders, we can expect 60 to 70% of the world's population to eventually test positive for Covid-19. At somewhere between 2% and 3% deaths, how many people is that?
"Don't worry. Be happy", says Flint.
Trump finally let his medical people stop downplaying the seriousness of this pandemic. But one thing he clearly did not do. He did not address the missing 1 million test kits that are needed. Test kits that remain in short supply because he obstructed the necessary response two months ago.
Because this virus does not have high fatality rates, then it is more dangerous - spreads farther. Apparently without any indication for weeks.
This pandemic coincides with a rush on toilet paper. Did his speaking also cause a diarrhea epidemic? I understand he read from the teleprompter. Meaning he only said what he was told to say. So it should not have been that bad.
… We've been slowly stocking up on food, but with an extra mouth in the house, we need to get more. We have only about a week or two of food. ...
Nawwww, an economical alternative is to simply order a copy of the Donner Party Cookbook.
Forgot I had this...
pause...
My Good Lady thinks I'm being paranoid about the C virus, but hey I've won the raffle with the underlying conditions.
Diabetes, High Blood Pressure and Blood Clotting problems (I'm on Warfarin )
Well I suppose shit happens :D
At least you have proof you're not a rat. :thumb:
"Don't worry. Be happy", says Flint.
lol what?
He hasn't been reading for understanding lately.
He hasn't been reading for understanding lately.
parsing is bad, only whacko extremists do that
and the schools are closed too. Parkrun is cancelled. Stores are full of people but empty of good (just escaped from one) Michigan is locked down. (third case announced)
WE BOUGHT $610 WORTH OF GROCERIES
I went and bought $260 and then I told J I forgot a few things and she went and bought $350 :lol:
Well there was no chicken whatsoever, raw or frozen, at any Montgomery County Wegman's, so she stopped at a Chester County one on the way home.
There was only whole wheat pasta :lol: even in an emergency people won't seriously eat that shit.
Nawwww, an economical alternative is to simply order a copy of the Donner Party Cookbook.
They had plenty of time to write it. What else were they going to do while they waited? Write a good fiction novel?
WE BOUGHT $610 WORTH OF GROCERIES
Never ceases to amaze how many get so emotional. Do you really think there will be no groceries until after this summer. This virus is expected to be around that long.
We are only trying to slow its spreading. Then time exists to avert damage created even by two months of doing nothing.
We can expect two out of every three people to be infected. If dealing with that reality, then numbers may be lower. But stocking for an apocalypse will not do much for a problem that will exist for many months. Early science suggest it will still be problem into August.
Quarantines slow a spreading virus. A virus that progresses slower means it can be confronted with more success. For example, a million plus test kits and laboratories, that should have been in production and construction two months ago, can be created.
Suddenly a dumb president finally admits that Covid-19 is a threat. Only then do so many realize the obvious? How many were so ignorant as to listen to his lies even last month? Then had plenty of time to stock what is necessary.
Do you really think there will be no groceries until after this summer.
Thomas,
We do expect groceries to be available. Wegmans has great logistics.
We also expect a very critical period over the next few weeks where we CAN visit stores, but really want to avoid it, as much as possible.
We did our shopping trip when there were 13 cases in the county. You'll do yours when there are 26, and again at 52, and again at 104, and again at 208.
Good luck.
We did our shopping trip when there were 13 cases in the county.
Best time to shop is when stores are completely packed with shoppers? When waiting lines for checkout approached one half hour? I could not think of a worse time to shop.
Others today reported such waiting lines at 12:30, 2:30, and 5 PM.
Better time to shop is probably 2 AM. Then a virus has more than a few hours to die. Or in any of eight weeks earlier when this threat was obvious. Why suddenly most everyone in one day because a lying president finally admitted he was lying?
And why, of all things, toilet paper? One roll should last at least 60 man days. Does everyone literally waste a roll every week?
snip--
And why, of all things, toilet paper? One roll should last at least 60 man days. Does everyone literally waste a roll every week?
At last, now we all know why you're so full of shit.
Please, somebody, give this man a :bogroll:
You only need one sheet at a time...
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Aside... both Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive, they are in Australia setting up to shoot a movie.
right. and you use the circle removed for your finger to clean under the nail.
#rimshot.
[size=6][color=black]Corona virus is stopped after racist and homophobix tweets from 2009 resurface[/size][/color]
That would be nice....
*I know it hasn't been tested but it's a damn funny take.
are all golf courses closed yet?
Literally every plan we had for this weekend has been cancelled.
So I just made camping reservations. Campfire and 'smores for the family, alone on the side of a mountain.
We have a favorite state park campsite that virtually nobody knows about and we always get it to ourselves. May as well isolate ourselves in beautiful scenery instead of going stir crazy.
DC is closing schools through the end of the month. I suspect my parents' babysitting duties are about to explode.
My informed Twitter is finding Chinese government media pushing two ideas. A) The virus originated in the US and B) China's helpful reaction gave the rest of the world time.
Both ideas are ludicrous on their face... but one party governments do what they do best.
Arlington County Virginia just closed their schools for a month.
Extended, two-week spring break for my kids' school district.
Today I am sure I have a cold-- sore throat, congested nose. I am staying home from work. I work at a hospital. I do IT work, but I'm there. I eat from the cafeteria, I use the bathrooms. I was already obsessive about hand hygiene, but I've been especially careful.
I know people in my small community who have medical conditions affecting their respiratory/immune systems. Hearing that I'll probably be okay but they might die is supposed to make me feel better.
Andrew Cuomo gave a speech in which he asked the Fed Gov to turn over testing to the State Gov. Strange times when I agree with AC about stuff but here we are.
It's official. I'm supposed to work from home for the next two weeks.
Another thing I overheard at work that I can't stop thinking about...
From one of the people complaining about the "liberals" and "Democrats" being the real problem:
"There only, like, 30 cases in the whole country!"
The next morning, the Governor of my state announces in a press conference that there are 19 cases in my STATE, and by the end of the broadcast, the announcer corrects that number with the new official number, 21 cases. By the end of the day the official number of cases in my state was up to 24 --almost as many as a guy working at a HOSPITAL in THIS STATE thought there were in the WHOLE COUNTRY. Because he's a Republican. I'm sorry, I don't mean to offend anyone, but that's the reason.
[COLOR="Silver"][SIZE="2"]also, you know, the whole world ecosystem is destabilizing and the temperate zone for growing crops is going to shift to non-fertile soils, and border walls won't be able to hold back all the climate refugees, but that's a problem for :::checks notes::: also right now[/SIZE][/COLOR]
Oh those are just the same old regular sunglasses
both sets of sunglasses can exist at the same time
I agreed with your original post, and it's something I think about all the time. In interpersonal affairs I once read [something like] when you get really upset at someone it represents that same part of yourself, that you don't acknowledge. This isn't true in every case (I don't think) but I always inwardly check myself with little prompts like, "do I do that same thing?"
Flash forward to politics, our self un-awareness is now this socially reinforced thing, and I think about that a lot, in no small part because of being exposed to your misanthropic centrism for all these years.
In short, how they treated Obama is exactly how we treat Trump, yet we'll dismiss how they treat the next guy, because it's how we treated Trump, without seeing the irony. My sunglasses are working just fine. If I let them prevent me from seeing things that are happening right in front of my face, that would be a problem.
Had to go to the grocery store this morning to pick up a prescription. Toilet paper has been out of stock for 2-3 days at least, but today, at 8:30 in the morning, the store was so packed that all the checkout lines had backed up until they merged into one long line that snaked fully 1/3 of the way around the perimeter of the store.
Also, the school hasn't yet committed to staying closed after spring break, but they announced that they have a plan in place for kids with no dedicated computer at home to check one out from the school if they close--and more tellingly, they instructed all the kids to take home all their books and notebooks from their lockers over the break just in case.
As I was picking up my kids' stash of lunch meds from the school (I told the nurse I'll bring them back if/when we return, but I can't afford to have a week's worth of their meds stuck inside a locked school when the insurance only lets me refill every 30 days), the nurse confided to me that we already have two families self-isolating because their parents work at Dell and had direct contact with the Dell employee who tested positive...
The very worst aspect of Trump is that he's a divisive person at a divisive time. That's precisely what we don't need - worst case scenario. Or, maybe it's exactly what we need because we need to rip the band-aid off. I can't tell.
~
In a divisive time you have to work harder to determine truth. Because both sides prefer exaggeration, lies, and bullshit narratives as it becomes more important to support *their* version of truth than the actual truth. Emotionally, the sides are more important to everybody. Nobody is invested in the actual truth. This is what we are seeing.
(What's worse is, post-modernism then suggests that everyone's truth is true, because everything is relative, and then we wind up in a hole that deeper than we dug.)
Trump is the victim (this time) of "post-modernism"?
LOL.
The very worst aspect of Trump.... That's a good one. It's a vigorous competition, but being divisive is an undercard bout at best. Fundamentally, he's a bad person. The traits he displays, embraces, claims as his own, are what make him a bad person. Divisive... pffft--that's just a side effect.
I do NOT want to make this into a political thread. I'm just telling you what I've heard with my own ears: people with a known cultural/tribal combativeness against "liberals" are refusing to believe/ignoring/doubting/downplaying the official information we have on a pandemic outbreak, even though they work at a ƒucking HOSPITAL. It is NOT political and it SHOULDN'T BE political so please, let's discuss the actual subject. I'm sorry I said anything, but I wasn't offering an "opinion" --just telling you what I heard, and why it was troubling in the context that appropriate actions taken by individuals are unavoidably critical to mitigating the impact of a communicable disease with a long, asymptomatic incubation period.
DC is closing schools through the end of the month. I suspect my parents' babysitting duties are about to explode.
Ya I have been hearing this... WHY UNTIL ONLY THE END OF THE MONTH things are closing??
Is it gonna magically dissapear??
My mom/dad cancelled thier trip to florida and disneyworld is closing for 2 weeks also. (Until the end of march)
I do NOT want to make this into a political thread.
Ya its best not to. This isnt the political base after all.....
fair enough.
But those threads of human life can not be teased apart completely or indefinitely.
Our shared experience with this virus will be affected most directly by our behavior, association, hygiene, medical response, and on and on. Each one of those is affected by what we think, in turn affected by what we believe, and that is based on what we're exposed to, so to speak.
We all take in things from outside ourselves, the microbes then inhabit our bodies and the ideas inhabit our minds. They are inseparable. How well we can incorporate or resist them depends on how we respond and how "healthy" we are at the outset.
The urge to wax political is strong, but I'll resist it for here and now.
Trump is the victim (this time) of "post-modernism"?
I cannot fathom how you might have gotten this conclusion out of my post.
Ya I have been hearing this... WHY UNTIL ONLY THE END OF THE MONTH things are closing??
Is it gonna magically dissapear??
It's to flatten out the rate of community spread, so there are enough hospital beds to deal with the critical cases that are inevitably going to happen as a result of the known infections and the fact that we've passed the point of being able to do contact tracing.
Ya I have been hearing this... WHY UNTIL ONLY THE END OF THE MONTH things are closing??
Is it gonna magically dissapear??
My mom/dad cancelled thier trip to florida and disneyworld is closing for 2 weeks also. (Until the end of march)
Ya its best not to. This isnt the political base after all.....
Hi Dude
ƒlint's explanation is exactly correct. I can not improve on it.
What I might be able to do is to describe a picture that might help you visualize what's going on and why a two-week school closure might help.
I want you to imagine a fire in the forest. A few trees have caught fire from a campfire--bad. As the fire gets hotter on each tree, the unburned trees adjacent to the burning trees might catch on fire--probably will catch on fire, at some point. With no intervention, the edge of the fire just grows bigger and bigger, the whole fire gets hotter and faster because there's more of it and it wants to spread to unburned areas.
Now imagine at the very start of the fire if we had been able to cut a firebreak around the burning trees and just let them burn. Since the heat from the fire wasn't close enough to spread to the other trees across the firebreak, the fire will die out. That would be great. That WOULD HAVE BEEN great if we'd closed our borders (put a firebreak around the country--exceedingly difficult) before any cases/fire showed up in the country. That did not happen.
But! Imagine if we had teams of foresters moving just beyond the edge of the fire, not cutting a complete break, but cutting down every other tree, or every third or eighth tree. Now the unburned trees in close proximity to the burning trees are fewer--there are fewer places for the fire to leap onto and spread outward. This won't put the fire out but it chokes the speed of the spread, giving the firefighters and foresters time to do their job. Their opponent, the fire, is growing more slowly giving them time to focus on the hottest spots or the most vulnerable spots.
Now back to the schools and concerts and basketball games, etc. By limiting the close physical contact or near contact of lots of people, like the kids, or the fans, there are literally fewer opportunities for the virus to be spread. So as ƒlint pointed out, the curve, the steepness with which the number of new cases/burning trees increases will be less steep, the curve will be flattened. This flattening gives us/firefighters/hospitals/first responders/test kit manufacturers more time working at maximum capacity to address the ones that are sick/ablaze. Those resources are limited. Keeping the number of people they have to address under the number they can address is all we can do now. The alternative is to just get burned.
They don't know who patient zero is.
However, a study, by Chinese researchers published in the Lancet medical journal, claimed the first person to be diagnosed with Covid-19, was on 1 December 2019 (a lot of earlier) and that person had "no contact" with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.
Wu Wenjuan, a senior doctor at Wuhan's Jinyintan Hospital and one of the authors of the study, told the BBC Chinese Service that the patient was an elderly man who suffered from Alzheimer's disease.
"He (the patient) lived four or five buses from the seafood market, and because he was sick he basically didn't go out,” Wu Wenjuan said.
She also said that three other people developed symptoms in the following days – two of whom had no exposure to Huanan either.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200221-coronavirus-the-harmful-hunt-for-covid-19s-patient-zeroAll y'all are being super patient with the "flattening the curve" explanations, but what Dude asked was why ONLY a month. The restrictions slow the spread only as long as they're in place, and any lifting of those restrictions before significant herd immunity has developed will cause the spread to speed right back up again.
The incubation period alone has been shown to be up to 28 days in some cases. Recovery takes anywhere from 3-8 weeks. Wuhan is only now back at normal hospital capacity (last temporary hospital closed its doors yesterday,) and restrictions are very much still in place there.
American quarantines, when they are declared, will have to be longer than a month.
Yeah. It’s two weeks (for now) that I am remote working. I’m sure they will re-evaluate when the two weeks are up. Hopefully there will not be layoffs then. I need to stay productive.
Really heartwarming and beautiful: Italians facing the quarantine are making music with each other, singing and playing tambourines from their balconies and windows!
[YOUTUBE]Q734VN0N7hw[/YOUTUBE]
The Corona Crooners release their debut album "Quarantine."
I was going to rewrite to benefit your quibble, but I'm betting my point has been made.
History will tell us whether the flu, or panic over it, is a bigger problem. If history says flu, the Pres has been terrible. If history says panic, the Pres has been on point.
Place your bets
Problem is, the economic concerns are not panic. They are missed shipments, dry supply chains, and a consumer base that is being quarantined in many nations. The losses are in fact real, and are the virus, not the panic.
Toilet paper is a whole other story.
222,000 flu cases and 22,000 flu deaths, in the US, so far.
1,864 carona cases and 41 deaths, in the US, so far.
🤔
222,000 flu cases and 22,000 flu deaths, in the US, so far.
1,864 carona cases and 41 deaths, in the US, so far.
22,000 flu deaths this
season, which starts back in August/September. Meaning roughly 3,667 deaths per month.
Italy (which, by a number of expert estimations, is the situation we're headed for) just hit 250 coronavirus deaths per day, AKA roughly 7,500 deaths per month--assuming the rate doesn't go higher, which it is expected to do. That's
on top of the 3,667 flu deaths per month that the hospital system is already dealing with.
It's not a question of how bad it is
now, it's a question of how bad all the numbers indicate it's going to
get. Once it gets bad, it's already too late.
All y'all are being super patient with the "flattening the curve" explanations, but what Dude asked was why ONLY a month.
you're right, to me the curve thing makes it obvious the plan is not to make it disappear, merely slow it down so we can cope better, but I guess that needed spelling out.
The period might well get extended, but we can't all stay indoors for ever until it disappears completely/sufficiently/we have a reliable vaccine......
Some of us are unemployed right now so don't have an employer who will pay them to stay at home. Some work in jobs where their employer will go out of business if forced to pay them when they are not working. Those people will not be able to buy food, pay pills, might lose their houses and cars, AND THEIR HEALTHCARE (if they have any) There is a limit to the extent to which even the most community-minded can "take one for the team".
It's not a question of how bad it is now, it's a question of how bad all the numbers indicate it's going to get. Once it gets bad, it's already too late.
we shall see... 😐
Visual tracker of cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Schools are closed now. Some districts are feeding kids. I'm waiting for word from the county health departments on my gig.
The UK now goes the opposite direction, and keeps the schools open, in order to make sure that a good number of people are infected.
The theory is that they can manage the rate of infection this way, and quarantine once needed; get their health system to 95% capacity for a long while; as opposed to having a quarantine period now, only to have the infection rate rise quickly again once the period is over, or if it's seasonal. This way, they'll get to herd immunity faster, once (someone figured) 60% of the population is immune.
It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.
It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.
A severe shortage of facts exist. Most decisions are based subjectively due to so few quantitative facts.
We learn from our mistakes. Each nation is currently performing an experiment. And we are the monkeys.
Ironically, even the Cellar monkey has better protection. But does he wash his hands? In a virtual world, does he care?
Ironically, even the Cellar monkey has better protection. But does he wash his hands? In a virtual world, does he care?
She's washing them right now. Hence the weird expression -mentally singing the chorus to Toto's Africa. And wondering why in the fuck everyone assumes she's male.
Quarantine, isolation, no human contact, barbed wire(electrified), and a moat.
But what comes into your home every day?
Air, light, water, and Mail.
Election year pumps the junk mail numbers, plus I'll bet the mail order catalogs will bump some too.
Some of us are unemployed right now so don't have an employer who will pay them to stay at home. Some work in jobs where their employer will go out of business if forced to pay them when they are not working. Those people will not be able to buy food, pay pills, might lose their houses and cars, AND THEIR HEALTHCARE (if they have any) There is a limit to the extent to which even the most community-minded can "take one for the team".
Oh absolutely, a critical part of all this will have to be financial relief. Delayed mortgage payments, utilities, etc. with no penalties. City of Austin has already declared that no one's electricity is getting cut off while this is ongoing--not least because they anticipate they won't have staff available to go out and do the manual shut off anyway. Other cities have officially put residential evictions on hold. Shut down schools are offering free food to kids during the suspension, ostensibly for the ones who were on free breakfast/lunch programs, but they make it clear that no ID or anything else will be needed, just show up and get a box of free food Mon-Fri. Some are using school bus routes to avoid having people gather for food pickup, just drive the normal route at the normal time and slide a box out the door to any kid standing outside at their normal spot.
It's like, there's no point in repossessing a car that you can't sell because all the car auctions have been shut down, you know? The debt will rack up, and I doubt very many creditors will be outright forgiving anything, but putting people out on the street is exactly what they won't want to do.
But how will we pay for it?
"Just went to Seattle’s UW Medical Center to ask how much patients are being charged for a coronavirus test. $100-$500 if they have insurance. $1,600 if they don’t."
The UK now goes the opposite direction, and keeps the schools open, in order to make sure that a good number of people are infected.
The theory is that they can manage the rate of infection this way, and quarantine once needed; get their health system to 95% capacity for a long while; as opposed to having a quarantine period now, only to have the infection rate rise quickly again once the period is over, or if it's seasonal. This way, they'll get to herd immunity faster, once (someone figured) 60% of the population is immune.
It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.
Lot of negative reaction, these two seem to be credentialed...
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Japan has had their first reinfection.
Really heartwarming and beautiful: Italians facing the quarantine are making music with each other, singing and playing tambourines from their balconies and windows!
[YOUTUBE]Q734VN0N7hw[/YOUTUBE]
Heh... There's traditional Italian classics, and then there's Italians singing "Bitch Better Have My Money" by Rihanna...
https://twitter.com/FENTYGEMlNl/status/1238971916209098752?s=19The scumbag president suddenly (without any planning or warning) decided to separate immigrant kids from their parents. Without any means of reuniting them. And without any facilities to safely warehouse those kids.
The scumbag president suddenly (and without any planning or warning) decided to warehouse incoming airline passengers in tiny rooms awaiting medical checks. Without any means of protecting them from the one who might be Covid-19 contagious. In tiny rooms and hallways where all waiting arrivals are tightly together. Could not ask for a better way to spread a contagious virus.
That happens when 85% of all problems are traceable to a man with a 30 second attention span.
Please move this to politics
Oh absolutely, a critical part of all this will have to be financial relief. Delayed mortgage payments, utilities, etc. with no penalties. City of Austin has already declared that no one's electricity is getting cut off while this is ongoing--not least because they anticipate they won't have staff available to go out and do the manual shut off anyway. Other cities have officially put residential evictions on hold. Shut down schools are offering free food to kids during the suspension, ostensibly for the ones who were on free breakfast/lunch programs, but they make it clear that no ID or anything else will be needed, just show up and get a box of free food Mon-Fri. Some are using school bus routes to avoid having people gather for food pickup, just drive the normal route at the normal time and slide a box out the door to any kid standing outside at their normal spot.
It's like, there's no point in repossessing a car that you can't sell because all the car auctions have been shut down, you know? The debt will rack up, and I doubt very many creditors will be outright forgiving anything, but putting people out on the street is exactly what they won't want to do.
Basically, those people can stomach being told it's for 2 weeks/a month, but if it's longer than that, they are less likely to co-operate because they know they won't make it financially. That's why ONLY a month. Trying to slow it and make it more manageable with the good will of the public.
I thought it was because April showers, that bring May flowers, were going to drown all the little buggers. I am disappoint.
Lil'Gs boyfriend was told over the weekend that his lab will be closed for 8 weeks, should I take the over? They've suspended classes so Lil G herself will be hanging with the boys at the residence for the foreseeable future, tough gig.
I thought it was because April showers, that bring May flowers, were going to drown all the little buggers.
Do composting. Those little buggers are proteins. Collect them into compost bins. Let those worms eat them up. That makes good fertilizer.
All those little crowns with spikes are rich protein nutrients. That should make vegetables fit for a king.
Late update: I'm supposed to sit tight for a couple days while we await guidance from the Health Dept. I see kids individually which is good but it's really intimate which is very bad...
https://newcriterion.com/blogs/dispatch/compared-to-what
Compared to what?
by Heather Mac Donald
On the misguided response to covid-19.
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Compared to what? That should be the question that every fear-mongering news story on the coronavirus has to start with. So far, the United States has seen forty-one deaths from the infection. Twenty-two of those deaths occurred in one poorly run nursing home outside of Seattle, the Life Care Center. Another nine deaths occurred in the rest of Washington state, leaving ten deaths (four in California, two in Florida, and one in each of Georgia, Kansas, New Jersey, and South Dakota) spread throughout the rest of the approximately 329 million residents of the United States. This represents roughly .000012 percent of the U.S. population.
Much has been made of the “exponential” rate of infection in European and Asian countries—as if the spread of all transmittable diseases did not develop along geometric, as opposed to arithmetic, growth patterns. What actually matters is whether or not the growing “pandemic” overwhelms our ability to ensure the well-being of U.S. residents with efficiency and precision. But fear of the disease, and not the disease itself, has already spoiled that for us. Even if my odds of dying from coronavirus should suddenly jump ten-thousand-fold, from the current rate of .000012 percent across the U.S. population all the way up to .12 percent, I’d happily take those odds over the destruction being wrought on the U.S. and global economy from this unbridled panic.
By comparison, there were 38,800 traffic fatalities in the United States in 2019, the National Safety Council estimates. That represents an average of over one hundred traffic deaths every day; if the press catalogued these in as much painstaking detail as they have deaths from coronavirus, highways nationwide would be as empty as New York subways are now. Even assuming that coronavirus deaths in the United States increase by a factor of one thousand over the year, the resulting deaths would only outnumber annual traffic deaths by 2,200. Shutting down highways would have a much more positive effect on the U.S. mortality rate than shutting down the U.S. economy to try to prevent the spread of the virus.
There have been 5,123 deaths worldwide so far—also a fraction of traffic deaths worldwide. And unlike coronavirus, driving kills indiscriminately, mowing down the young and the old, the sick and the healthy. The coronavirus, by comparison, is targeted in its lethality, overwhelmingly striking the elderly or the already severely sick. As of Monday, approximately 89 percent of Italy’s coronavirus deaths had been over the age of seventy, according to The Wall Street Journal. Sad to say, those victims were already nearing the end of their lifespans. They might have soon died from another illness. No child under the age of nine has died from the illness worldwide. In China, only one individual in the ten-to-nineteen age group has succumbed.
Comparing the relative value of lives makes for grisly calculus, but one is forced to ask: are we missing the forest for the trees? If the measures we undertake to protect a vulnerable few end up exposing them, along with the rest of society, to even more damaging risks—was it worth the cost?
An example: there were 34,200 deaths in the United States during the 2018–19 influenza season, estimates the cdc. We did not shut down public events and institutions to try to slow the spread of the flu. Yet we have already destroyed $5 trillion in stock market wealth over the last few weeks in the growing coronavirus panic, reports The New York Times, wiping out retirement savings for many.
The number of cases in most afflicted countries is paltry. As of today, 127 countries had reported some cases, but forty-eight of those countries had fewer than ten cases, according to Worldometer. At this point, more people have recovered from the virus than are still sick. But the damage to people’s livelihoods through the resulting economic contraction is real and widespread. Its health consequences will be more severe than those of the coronavirus, as Steve Malanga shows in City Journal. The people who can least afford to lose jobs will be the hardest hit by the assault on tourism. Small entrepreneurs, whether in manufacturing or the service sector, will struggle to stay afloat. Such unjustified, unpredicted economic havoc undermines government legitimacy.
President Trump has been criticized for not being apocalyptic enough in his press conferences. In fact, he should be even more skeptical of the panic than he has been. He should relentlessly put the coronavirus risk into context with opioid deaths, homicide deaths—about sixteen thousand a year in the United States—flu deaths, and traffic deaths. One might have thought New York governor Andrew Cuomo a voice of reason when, a few days ago, he tried to tamp down the hysteria in a press conference, saying: “This is not Ebola, this is not sars, this is not some science fiction movie come to life. The hysteria here is way out of line with the actuality and the facts.” And yet since then he called a state of emergency in New York, and he and Mayor Bill de Blasio have all but shut down the New York City economy. They, like most all U.S. politicians nowadays, have shown an overwhelming impulse to be irrationally risk-averse.
Rather than indiscriminately shutting down public events and travel, we should target prevention where it is most needed: in nursing homes and hospitals.
It is hard to imagine that the panicked leaders and populace of today would have been able to triumph in the last century’s World Wars. America’s colleges sent off thousands of their young men to fight and die in those wars; those students went off with conviction and courage. Currently, colleges and universities are shutting down with no hint of the virus in their vicinity. Would today’s panicked leaders and populace be able to triumph in the face of a World War, or some other legitimately comparable threat? Let’s hope that we do not have to find out.
Heather Mac Donald is the Thomas W. Smith fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of The Diversity Delusion (St. Martin’s Press) and The War on Cops (Encounter).
Also, the school hasn't yet committed to staying closed after spring break, but they announced that they have a plan in place for kids with no dedicated computer at home to check one out from the school if they close--and more tellingly, they instructed all the kids to take home all their books and notebooks from their lockers over the break just in case.
And boom goes the dynamite. School's closed until April 3rd, expect further extensions after that. Instructions will be forthcoming on how they will do virtual lessons from here on out.
On the other hand, the Pope's still walking around, so I missed that deadline. Can't be right all the time I guess.
222,000 flu cases and 22,000 flu deaths, in the US, so far.
1,864 carona cases and 41 deaths, in the US, so far.
🤔
Well, it's a good thing we're not at the bottom of the upward curve or anything.
So everything is fine, so long as we remember that "so far" it's not much.
It will be interesting to see how or if herd immunity works out in the UK.
RE: perspective
I'll be taking a law school grads perspective on science with a grain of salt. If I need someone to own college liberals she'll be high on my list. If I want an alternative angle on the science I'd prefer to read an article from a scientist with an opposing view.
I understand the reflexive anti-expert instinct, I'm a generalist myself. I'll build a house, raise some animals, or tend a garden but for something like this I want credentials.
1,864 carona cases and 41 deaths, in the US, so far.
That was the Friday number, the Monday number is
3,487 cases and 68 deaths
Hopefully our stay-home efforts will keep this number from doubling about every four days like that, since at that rate it would take 36 days to match the flu total and 40 days to double it, and let's just end the speculation at that point so we don't all freak out
I think the doubling is every six days around here?
Daughter just found out in person classes are cancelled for the rest of the semester. Some may go online.
She’s super bummed. So much of what she does is lab work and studio work.
The whole point of the college experience is to be there.
It may be groups of 10 or less through August. All this stuff has to go online
The "flattening the curve" images we've shared over the last week may be wrong. I've seen several graphics with new estimates for various areas. The actual critical care hospital bed capacity is far lower than the top of the "good" curve. We will overrun the number of available beds almost immediately.
BUT the lockdowns and self-isolation and quarantining are the solution, because they can be effective pretty quickly. We'll know soon enough!
That was the Friday number, the Monday number is
3,487 cases and 68 deaths
End of Monday: 4100/72
I think the "cases" number rises faster due to public understanding and test availability
Positive: Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson are out of the hospital and recovering.
But now we all have Idris Elba to worry about...
I see that recovered people are becoming reinfected. WTF. If you survived this thing....... wouldn't you count your blessings and just hole up somewhere for a long time.....?
I know, I know, don't blame the victim, but still.....
Probably a lot of people wrongly assumed post case immunity, like I did.
Tale of Two Italian Cities
Lodi had the first Covid-19 case in Italy, and implemented a shutdown on Feb 23. Bergamo waited until March 8.
Probably a lot of people wrongly assumed post case immunity, like I did.
I read there are 2 known strains so you could get it 2 times.........
Please move this to politics
Please feel free to start a thread on that base about the political side of this Griff :)
Tale of Two Italian Cities
Lodi had the first Covid-19 case in Italy, and implemented a shutdown on Feb 23. Bergamo waited until March 8.
solid evidence
But now we all have Idris Elba to worry about...
And Tormund from
Game of Thrones.
I understand the reflexive anti-expert instinct, I'm a generalist myself. I'll build a house, raise some animals, or tend a garden but for something like this I want credentials.
I'm not anti-expert, I'm anti-panic.
Anti-panic stats scientist weighs in
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.
...
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. ... Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.
Examples, please.
I'm concerned about the UK isolating the over 70s. I feel -in addition to all the obvious things- they might be vulnerable to tricksters coming to their door masked, pretending to be offering aid.... :/
Anti-panic stats scientist weighs in
This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.
This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.
I agree, it's a useful piece, but not cuz it comes from an expert. It's useful cuz, like the piece I linked, it's chockablock with
common sense, a commodity that's becomin' quite rare in the public sphere.
March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?
https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point
Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.
March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?
https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point
Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.
March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?
March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?
March 17th: Why are some good people
douchebags?
Let's see national progressive radio tackle those.
If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.
March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?
Because it is limited by our personal experience and the narratives we run in our own heads to try to make sense of the world.
March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?
Because sometimes delaying action kills people in the real world. We have to use the best information and judgement we can lay our hands on in those moments. It could be wrong but we attempted to use reason not rhetoric which is generally better.
March 17th: Why are some good people douchebags?
Because people are fallible and honestly don't know what is happening in others' heads.
If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.
Have I suggested anyone ignore anything?
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.
We know that something like 60 to 70% of the population probably must suffer infection before this pandemic subsides. So how long should schools remain closed?
CDC had been advising all national school supervisors about every other day based upon the best known science. Latest science suggests that schools may need be closed anywhere from 5 weeks to well into the summer.
Then suddenly, the White House ordered CDC to stop briefing the nation's school supervisors. Facts necessary to make an informed decision are too alarming. White House refuses to admit why they ordered such briefing terminated. Exactly what one does to create panic.
85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management. Since the president is clearly incompetent, then people who are been taking actions and implementing standards (therefore are averting panic) are governors and large city mayors. That is where and why panic has been averted. Fortunately they have addressed this problem. An incompetent and corrupt president also never once ran a successful company. 85% of all problems directly traceable to one who only makes decisions based upon his reelection.
Yesterday, in a news briefing, reporters noted a sharp change in this president. He was subdued and not bombastic. Resulting in an interesting change in the tone of reporters questions. It was more like a press conference conducted by previous presidents. The Don did very little talking. Others (educated and more responsible) did most of the talking. So facts instead of attacks were more in evidence.
Apparently this president, who was denying this pandemic until recently, is finally hearing even what his extremist staff has been saying. And who has almost nothing to say? Man that Trump assigned the job to - VP Pence. Which is good. He has nothing informed to offer. Best thing he can do to avert panic is to say nothing.
So the question. Who in the White House ordered the CDC silent? When we most need to know facts.
How long does this virus last on surfaces? Are infected people immune from a future infection? How long is someone contagious before symptoms appear? Does this virus spread airborne? How many are contagious without any symptoms (which means different tests to determine anti-bodies)? Is there a second strain of Covid-19 as indicated by some who reportedly got this virus again?
Two week quarantines were never to stop this pandemic. Since America did virtually nothing for two months, then these quarantines are necessary so that test kits, protective gear, and plans can be made. For example, we know two big manufacturers of face masks did nothing to increase production until after even the stock market was crashing. Only then did they have a response from government that this infection would be addressed. Because Trump said there were only five infections. And he expected that number to drop to one next week.
Of course he lied. He can't stop himself. Knowing his long history may have also averted panic. Educated people simply assume anything he says is probably a lie.
Korea defined a death rate of 3.6%. Koreans addressed this problem up front. Having performed a quarter of a million tests. Statistics there should be more accurate. Especially since Korea (per capita) did 700% more than America has. (Both countries observed similar infection rates at the same time.)
China says a death rate in Wuhan was, at one point, as high as 20%. But a death rate in the rest of Hubei province remained below 5%. Death rates among passengers on the Grand Princess are useless. Since that ship was kept out of San Francisco until test kits were delivered. How many kits? They could only find 45 kits to test about 4200 passengers and crew. Numbers were subjected to White House approval.
Only thing that is averting panic is latest information - not suppressed and subverted by a president who has lied every day of his adult life.
we attempted to use reason
Don't attempt: do.
This is all I'm suggesting, to much resistance and mischaracterization, here and elsewhere.
When you don't give your employees PTO, they kill your granny.
https://apnews.com/7994b669d63c73db4d3f73d444e53b25we attempted to use reason
Don't attempt: do.
This is all I'm suggesting, to much resistance and mischaracterization, here and elsewhere.
Hard to use logic and reason when data is being intentionally withheld.
Not when the information that does exist matches your preconceived notions.
Numerous cruise ships are now anchored and clustered together at sea going nowhere. A list of some clustered together in various locations off and east of Florida. Independence of the Seas, Sky Princess, Regal Princess, Crown Princess, Symphony of the Seas, Oasis of the Seas, Harmony of the Seas, Mariner of the Seas, Empress of the Seas, Celebrity Reflection, Niewuw Statenda, Disney Fantasy, Disney Dream, Celebrity Equinox, Celebrity Edge, Msc Seaside, Msc Meravirgiia, Msc Armonia, Carnival Fascination, Carnival Horizon, Scarlet Lady, and Norwegian Encore.
Sitting off Tampa are Celebrity Infinity, Celebrity Silhouette, Celebrity Summit, Brilliance of the Seas, and Rhapsody of the Seas.
Such big seas with nowhere to go.
Fuck COVID-19.
And you, yeah, you, you panic-buying fuckers. Stop buying my toilet paper!
Listened to Dr Drew podcast yesterday, in which he repeatedly stated that the US is doing the right things, social distancing is the right move, and everything will be okay. The Italian deaths are due to Italy not being prepared, and the US is very well prepared and taking the correct steps
His angry take was that the media should be thrown down the well for the levels of panic they have encouraged
His opinion was that if the number of cases is less than six figures at the end of the week, we'll be fine and if they are below 20,000 things are awesome
His opinion was that hospital overwhelming may happen but will be entirely localized in outbursts
Drew survived H1N1, so you know he is badass already.
~
There is a new treatment for this, "chloroquine" which they say is being proven effective
China is claiming no new cases today - but don't trust China, China is asshoe (see date at bottom of the tweet)
The Pentagon likely has a shit-ton of chloroquine (sp?) stock piled since it's a common anti-malarial. I took it in Costa Rica years ago.
I watched Trump's news conference today, he's doing much better.
I may have to go back on Gin and Tonics after a 12 year hiatus...
I had a really bad chest cold in December, I think. I'm seeing
things that say it may have already been here as early as November. Hope so.
Maybe wishful thinking, but it was a brutal cold that took a good week to take hold and 3 to go away. I was hocking up lung cookies for a solid 2 weeks. Most of the people here had something like it.
does Quinine work too? You can get that in Canada Dry Bitter Lemon. Which goes nicely with Gin.
China is claiming no new cases today
Correction WUHAN China is reporting no new cases. All of China reports 34 new cases.
I had a really bad chest cold in December, I think. I'm seeing things that say it may have already been here as early as November. Hope so.
Maybe wishful thinking, but it was a brutal cold that took a good week to take hold and 3 to go away. I was hocking up lung cookies for a solid 2 weeks. Most of the people here had something like it.
the covid cough is sposed to be dry though, right?
Drew said it was almost surely in big int'l cities soon after it broke out in Wuhan, and almost surely there are people who had it and didn't know, and this is part of the immunity building up
He said you just listen to Anthony Fauci's actual facts and those are what you need to know. He worked directly with Fauci during AIDS in the 90s
My father once knew a man!
[SIZE="1"]
[COLOR="Silver"]this line always gets stuck in my head[/COLOR][/SIZE]
Correction WUHAN China is reporting no new cases. All of China reports 34 new cases.
However they have threatened all new reporters by even throwing out all Wall Street Journal, NY Times, and Washington Post reporters. Apparently because those reporters demonstrated some serious under reporting.
But the WHO is not being critical. So it appears they have finally got something under control. It could just be that 60% to 70% were infected and recovered already.
Necessary are test (current not being done) to determine who had the virus (now only have antibodies). So much science remains to be done.
Meanwhile, two classic case studies need consideration. Italy was about as prepared as anyone else. Even quarantines in North Italy failed to stop a spread to the south. (Strangely it did not spread North into Austria.) Something more is at play here. They have asked for and received Doctors from China to visit and advise.
Other example is Japan that had few cases. Again, what was unique in Japan? Some suggest a population that was properly trained during Sars and Mers potential pandemic. But that is only speculation. Something to learn from those two extreme examples.
Clearly not explained is why so many top doctors and other health industry officials in Iran constantly claimed Covid-19 was only a another cold virus. And not a problem. Their total denial, even after so many top doctors and Health minister were sickened, reeks of leaders driven by religion instead of politics or science.
Italy has a highest illness per capita number. Significantly higher than China. But Iran may be the world's sickest nation - or quickly getting there.
The Italians are touchy feely, the Austrians are not, neither are the Japanese. That may explain why the impact varied.
Positive: Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson are out of the hospital and recovering.
The Italians are touchy feely, the Austrians are not, neither are the Japanese. That may explain why the impact varied.
So Weinstein and all the other gropers and pussy-grabbers are doomed? I'll take it.
That's no way to speak of your president. ;)
Field hospital opens on the soccer field just north of Seattle.
After combing through their data,
99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
nearly 50% of dead had three other conditions
high blood pressure seems to be the worst co-illness - and diabetes and heart disease
We've just gotten word from the school that the teachers will be taking the first week to develop lesson plans, and online programs won't start for real until the 30th. They clearly anticipate this is going to continue through the end of the school year.
Meanwhile, I anticipate that all their summer camps will be cancelled and I'll have to keep up some version of homeschool to keep them busy through the summer. I've pulled a bunch of resources and made a homeschooling schedule for them that will cover the coming week, at least.
On the one hand, it sucks, but on the other, I think it will be really interesting to see how many parents, once forced to do it, decide that homeschooling is actually a better option for their socially anxious kids and just stay home even when the schools do re-open.
A lot of parents are coming to the realization that the teacher wasn't the problem
After combing through their data, 99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
nearly 50% of dead had three other conditions
And that did not exist in other nations? It is called 'cherry picking'. Ignore other facts that do not coincide with a conclusion. Yes, that might be true. But if that alone was relevant, then it is also true is all other nations.
Those fucking Italians, having the nerve to only study the statistics from Italy
So - about half our staff are at home now - some isolating, some home working, many left today because they are parents and schools have now closed. The number of people actually able to work from home is still small - they're testing a virtual call centre for the rapid crew, and 3 of our Specialist Team are trialing new laptops and company mobiles - they are in process of building our systems with a view to moving all the specialists to home working but we dont have a date for that yet - optimistic guess is end of next week.
I'm in a high risk category (asthmatic) and also smoke (trying hard to cut down) - advice for my category is social distancing to the degree I am able, and to make decision on how strict that shold be based on my own particular circs (how severe is the condition, how under control, feeling otherwise healthy? etc). Work have made it clear anybody in a high risk category can go home and self isolate until homeworking is available, but...we are so thin on the ground. There already arent enough of us to deal with stuff - and now it not a good time for someone to have a disaster at home and not be able to access help.
We're doing what we can to minimise the risk - hand sanitisers dotted about, cleaning staff coming round disinfecting everything through the day, strict zoning - you stay in your area don't go to other areas to talk to friends, use the chat system - people spreading out more since there are more empty desks etc.
The team leaders are providing snacks and treats to boost morale and the atmosphere is a weird mix of fear and dread with humour and good cheer
...............
Meanwhile - the two Js came back from Hanoi for a 3 week visit to be there for the birth of Janet's first grandchild - and now they cant go back. Their current tenancy is due to cease in 2 days and their new tenancy due to start - and they are not there to move their stuff. More importantly - their 2 dogs (Carrpt's bro, Merlot and his new little Vietnamese brother Biscuit) are now semi-permanent residents of the boarding kennel - at least for the foreseeable future.
Had a scary 24 hours where the kennels didnt respond to their email and facebook messages - but they have now made contact and are absolutely fine with the dogs remaining there for £400 a month. They sent pictures and both dogs look happy and healthy.
..............
Meanwhile - my SiL is head of the community nursing team in the village doing home visits etc - they only just got masks.
------------
Meanwhile - My eldest niece, Amelia and her boyfriend, currently working windfarms in Australia have been laid off and can't come home to the UK - they are driving their camper van to a remote camp site and waiting it out.
..........
Mum is still weakened by her recent operation- gall bladder removed - and more so by 4 months of almost zero fat diet while waiting for the op because even a small amount of fat could have triggered it into an emergency at any time. Was only supposed to be a 5 week wait but got cancelled and then the Christmas season was in the middle of that and so on - eventually had the op 1st feb by which time she was down to a little over 6 stone (about 88 pounds)
She is social distancing as much as possible - we mainly only see each other for dog walks or dropping stuff off atthe door. can't fully do it though, as some stuff needs us both in the car so when we do that I wear a decorators mask to try and lessen her risk.
Shopping is a nightmare. Selfish bastards stockpiling for a possible future shortage and leaving care workers and socially isolated elderly unable to get what they need. The advice is to have enough to last 2 weeks - but people are having to shop every couple of days because they can only get a few things - the shops get stock and whole sections of essential items have been emptied within an hour or so.
Supermarkets are doing what they can - bringing in stuff like the first hour of the day reserved for elderly and vulnerable - but there are stories of young healthy people going in pushing old people out of the way to get to stuff.
Home shopping systems are crashing and people cant get delivery slots at all or not for a month and even then half the stuff you order is out of stock by the time you hit the checkout button
There are enough food and necessary goods in the supply chain, but people panic buying and acting like selfish cunts is overloading it. This is before we have massive numbers self isolating and needing to shop online and before restaurants and pubs shut increasing home cooked food and therefore food shopping by several percent
People are also looking out for each other though - there's some good to be found as well.
Strange days - just generally kind of weirded out.
Enough rambling from me. I hope you all are safe and well and remain so.
X D
Glad to hear from you, Dana. Hope your mom recovers back to full health soon! For some reason I have an image of you trying to force-feed her avocados to put the pounds back on... :)
Blood donations are way down and it’s becoming a problem.
On Tuesday, I got an email from the local blood donor services director, because I am coordinating a blood drive in early May at my church.
It was sent to all blood drive hosts and was a plea to not cancel any more drives. He reported that 50 drives had been cancelled that week to the tune of about 900 units of blood not being collected locally. He didn’t explain why, but I assumed businesses that were closing were just canceling all scheduled events, including blood drives they planned onsite.
So if you want to help during this crisis, and feel brave enough to get out there, I’m certain there is a drive going on near you this weekend and they could use your blood. Do a google search with your location. The Red Cross probably has some.
Around here, in response to Covid, they do the health screening of donors when you show up to weed out anyone with a fever before they sign in.
Covid19 patients don’t need blood, but the people who are sick enough to need blood are still out there.
:) Thanks, Clod - yeah, she is getting there. That is quite a funny mental image.
@ glatt - I went to the NHS Give Blood page - started going down the criteria lists and it says dont give blood if you have ever injected, or been injected with drugs even if it was a long time ago, and even if it was only once
....oops. It was really long time ago - like decades ago ... but it sounds like that bars me from joining the blood drive :(
in mask news
taiwan is sending 100,000 masks to the US
france intercepted and took a shipment of 130,000 masks before it got to UK
message to taiwan shipping: please look out for french boats
We're re-using N95 masks five times, each worker is issued one and stores it in a tupperware container with the straps outside the lid.
We've just implemented a protocol for shooting portable chest x-rays through the door (ER patient rooms have a glass door).
I'm sorry, Flint. I'm grateful for folks like you, doing the impossible job as best you can.
Thank you. To clarify-- I don't come into clinical contact with patients, but I do support the department running smoothly, and since it's under stress and we haven't technically been given guidance on cancelling outpatient imaging procedures, I'm delaying pulling the "work from home" card.
My work friends, the people I see every day, are the ones that are really in the firing line. I'm there in solidarity, to be honest. So I've quarantined myself to work (the minimum exposure possible) and my house. I haven't been in contact with anyone else...in 10 days? My ex is keeping the kids.
UPDATE SINCE EARLIER: I live on the coast, a tourist area, and I'm now learning that we're overrun with people coming in from out of town. My town and the next one over are drafting up an emergency declaration but do not have the authority to impose restrictions on hotels, etc. until the governor declares restrictions on the whole state.
I live in the one that's in between Washington and California.
Man, that sucks. People need to go home.
I have an aunt fighting cancer she's supposed to get radiation 5x per week for 6 weeks. Talk about terrible timing.
It's true.
The national stockpile is 75 million masks.
But they are just for emergencies
Good thing the Democrats reminded us about those go to war supplies and it wasn't politically incorrect to do so.
Why is Japan an "outlier" with fewer cases than everyone else surrounding China? Nobody seems to know yet. Are they about to experience the crush, or did cultural practices stop it before it could get going? It's all just guessing at this point.
Why is Japan an "outlier" with fewer cases than everyone else surrounding China? Nobody seems to know yet. Are they about to experience the crush, or did cultural practices stop it before it could get going? It's all just guessing at this point.
No, Japan was one of the first countries to close schools and mandate social isolation. I think their national will to band together and accept draconian measures is a result of the earthquake and tsunami from a few years ago. There is usually a political delay between the acceptance that a certain measure is required and when it is mandated whereas in Japan, that delay is maybe 20 minutes.
My default TV station is NHK (an English speaking 24-hour channel from Tokyo) and I've been hearing first hand what the national temperament in Japan is. Japan ain't effing around - they locked down early.
And while I don't post here often, I think about you knuckleheads a lot and hope everyone in cellardom is ok and makes it through this nonsense.
So Weinstein and all the other gropers and pussy-grabbers are doomed? I'll take it.
most likely entirely unrelated....
Placido Domingo*
*used fox link to show no political bias :D
It's true. The national stockpile is 75 million masks.
But they are just for emergencies
...
and they are now being shipped to the areas of greatest need
The president also said the federal government has deployed hundreds of tons of supplies from national stockpiles to locations “with the greatest need in order to assist in those areas.”
My default TV station is NHK (an English speaking 24-hour channel from Tokyo) and I've been hearing first hand what the national temperament in Japan is. Japan ain't effing around - they locked down early..
You know more than I do and I defer to your judgement on this one
Is the lockdown over, though, because this appeared in my firehose feeds just now and somebody claimed it was Saitama Super Arena this weekend.
Or - does it mean masks are quite effective when used properly
I don't know anything any more
You know more than I do and I defer to your judgement on this one
Is the lockdown over, though, because this appeared in my firehose feeds just now and somebody claimed it was Saitama Super Arena this weekend.
Or - does it mean masks are quite effective when used properly
I don't know anything any more
I just watched the Sumo tournament from Tokyo - one of the most important sporting events in all of Japan. The stadium was empty - only the wrestlers, the referee and the handlers - not a single fan in the stands. It was surreal. Think of the biggest boxing match of the year from Vegas with no one in attendance.
So I don't know where that pic came from but I would be shocked to learn it is a recent pic from Japan. Japan is 1 inch away from cancelling the Olympics so this pic would be very hard to explain.
"somebody claimed" is always likely to be wrong. Thank you sir!
Ohioioians ordered to Shelter In Place
I bet Michigan isn't far behind
We might not need it ... 3 inches of snow on top of warm pavement will probably take care of those who venture out....
I see Canada pulled out of the Olympics
This was the first day (March 08 - two weeks ago) of the current tournament.
Article.
With a heavy heart I called in work this morning. I am benching myself until they can get me a laptop to work from home.
I am observing as strict social distancing as I possibly can - going out for food, medicines and walking the dog -
I have to walk carrot - I have no garden to let him in. I can't let him in a garden for most of the day and only take him 1 walk for exercise - every time he needs the toilet, I have to walk him. On top of that he won't do what he needs to do just anywhere - no pavement poos from Carrot. If I don't take him somewhere with grass or a patch of ground set way back from the pavement, he will hold it until he makes himself ill.
I dont live in a built up area - but suddenly all the people who usually entertain themselves with socialising and sports and work, are stuck at home and all going for walks to keep themselves sane and entertained.
Most people are being considerate and keeping a good distance - some are not.
What is really frustrating is when you see a small group of people all walking together, all clearly making a half hearted attempt at social distancing because there's a 1 - 2 foot gap between each person, but they're walking 3 abreast .... I cannot lean any further into this dry stone wall, you fuckwads.
I'm altering my route, stepping into drive ways to make room for someone to go past, crossing the road and back again, to ensure I leave 2m - and to make sure that the elderly lady who just came out of her doorway isn't having to make way, or cross the road for me.
And then a runner will go by leaving a gap of about 2 feet.
yesterday was a nightmare - trying to keep a distance when everyone was out on walks - as families and couples - most trying to leave a good distance and some really considerate sensible people (parents telling their kids to stop and wait so that other people can go down that street with a 2 m gap etc) but just in general very difficult to acheive that distance when so many people are out for non-essential reasons (imo)
If I had a a garden for Carrot I would be leaving my house a handful of times a week for absolute essentials like food for myself or dropping stuff to mum's door, or a midnight walk for the dog so he gets a bit of exercise. I would not be out there walking for leisure
Bit different for youngsters, difficult for them to get their head around being stuck in doors - I can see why a parent might end up taking them for a walk outside to burn off some of their energy especially if they dont have a garden to play in.
Anyone without a compelling reason to be outside should be inside - go outside the minimum amount necessary to continue functioning.
And don't walk 3 or 4 abreast down the street or lane - if you are trying to walk together while social distancing from each other, fine - but drop to single file when you see someone coming the other way.
These fucking cockwombles are going to force the government to bring in much stricter rules and people like me whose dogs don't have gardens or won't shit without going several hundred meters from their house are going to be faced with a serious problem.
Dont just follow the letter, follow the damned spirit - dont go out unless you have to. If you have a decent sized garden, exercise in it, dont go fucking running round the village. If you have teenagers, ground them from non-essential outings - if you have a garden they can exercise in it.
If you have small children, limit the amount of outings to once or twice a week, and the rest o fthe time keep them in or in the garden )if you have one) - if you dont have a garden, be very careful where you take them to play and try to avoid the times of day when people are most likely to be trying to buy food or travel to work (those who cannot work from home) - and make sure you have them under sufficient control to ensure a 2m gap from others.
People are skirting the rules, trying to show they are following them without actually really taking on board what they mean and why they are there.
And that's just my little village and the people who live in but don't usually have a reason to walk around it so much. The situation in the highlands, the dales and the other remote places is even worse. Loads of people traveling to beauty spots or trying to get out to stay in the countryside, in holiday homes and campsites - making it impossible for the residents to social distance and risking total overload of local health services designed for much lower numbers.
Selfish bastards.
.....
Rant over.
You know more than I do and I defer to your judgement on this one
Is the lockdown over, though, because this appeared in my firehose feeds just now and somebody claimed it was Saitama Super Arena this weekend.
Or - does it mean masks are quite effective when used properly
I don't know anything any more
I chased it down - took a while but you are right - that is the K-1 kickboxing tournament and it was held this weekend over protests to cancel it.
K-1 event draws 6,500 in Saitama, despite calls for cancellation
Wow - how dumb is that?
It's like pics we have here then - people are mostly conforming, but once in a while they just go nuts and crowd up. There have been a lot of beach pics where there are crowds because people just have to go.
[YOUTUBE]sPLgsV_Ms3Q[/YOUTUBE]
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543
Three teenagers were arrested after an elderly couple were allegedly coughed at in the street.
The couple were approached by three people in Hitchin, one of whom is said to have coughed in their faces.
A passer-by intervened and there was "an altercation" which left a woman in her 70s with a black eye, police said.
Three males aged 16, 18 and 19 were questioned on suspicion of actual bodily harm, affray and criminal damage after the incident on Friday afternoon.
Regarding the crowd at Saitama:
[ATTACH]70089[/ATTACH]
As DanaC points out in her posts above, there is often a mixture of flexible interpretation of the rules and just plain ignoring them in public spaces.
On the other hand, I went to the local pharmacy to collect Dad's prescription this morning and the maximum number of people permitted inside was five at any one time.
However, an informal system of 'one out, one in' had emerged and a queue of people two paces apart was in operation outside.
While that worked well, my recent visits to the nearby supermarket didn't find any evidence of an outbreak of common sense or initiative.
I queued at the check out leaving the required space from the person in front, but the people behind me were breathing down one another's necks and ultimately mine.
Sometimes I despair.
Yesterday I had an Email from my mate in Oz.
His wife's sister had been staying with them for four weeks and had been due to return to the UK in a few days time..
She was concerned at how fast things were changing in terms of the suspension of international flights etc so re-booked her flight to arrive home yesterday.
Qantas charged her an additional £800 ($920) for the privilege.
Also my neighbour flew to Oz ten days ago to visit her son and his family with the intention of returning in mid April.
I understand that she is more or less stranded out there until the end of May, the resumption of flights permitting, but who knows?
At least she won't have to worry about huge hotel bills but it isn't an ideal situation.
She did tell me before she went that it would be her last big holiday so I hope that she enjoys it.
Brits just got the order to stay at home 3 weeks
Philadelphia region just got the stay at home order for 2 weeks today
Oregon "stay home" order started today, with no defined end-date.
On Saturday, the coast was overrun by tourists, and by Sunday every little town full of retired seniors and maybe one ICU bed had passed their own "DON'T COME HERE" ordinance. So the State-wide order is very welcome.
The husband of one of the ladies that runs the little outfit I work for owns and runs a grocery store. He is working and staying outside the home for fear of bringing it home. Brutal. They previously stopped the kids from working there. This thing is tearing people apart and yet some folks don't take it seriously at all. She also told me a home bound old-timer in their area recently tested positive. Somebody brought it to him.
Cuomo has a "forward" team for recommendations for turning life back on, but it seems like we're a long damn way from that.
Keene Valley NY is in a similar position to Flintlandia. They're begging tourists to stay away. They don't have health facilities for this kind of thing.
They're begging tourists to stay away. They don't have health facilities for this kind of thing.
One confirmed positive in my county. We're a 25-bed facility (total).
I hope this permanently cripples the Airbnb trade in our area, we already couldn't afford housing because of predatory land-lording. It only takes one unanticipated event to shine a light on how razor-thin the ice we've been skating on is.
....Annnd there it is. Shelter in place for Austin.
graduation cancelled for the boy.
:(
"somebody claimed" is always likely to be wrong. Thank you sir!
sounds like "... people are saying..." "... many people are saying:...".
Regarding the crowd at Saitama:
[ATTACH]70089[/ATTACH]
paraphrasing Robert Heinlein: "Never underestimate the power of human stupidity."
People are saying that the federal government is already mobilizing specialized units, with state-of-the-art tracking technology, to ensure no isolation violations will be perpetrated by the Easter Bunny.
We're on top of this one.
Oregon "stay home" order started today, with no defined end-date.
On Saturday, the coast was overrun by tourists, and by Sunday every little town full of retired seniors and maybe one ICU bed had passed their own "DON'T COME HERE" ordinance. So the State-wide order is very welcome.
....Annnd there it is. Shelter in place for Austin.
Governor Jay "The Snake" Inslee has ordered Washington residents that are not essential to shelter in place, exempting those that help us fight this outbreak, food and agriculture, critical government operations, the media, and he mentioned others, but I couldn't transcribe fast enough. "Restaurants, go to takeaway service asap."
"Enforceable by law."
People are saying that the federal government is already mobilizing specialized units, with state-of-the-art tracking technology, to ensure no isolation violations will be perpetrated by the Easter Bunny.
We're on top of this one.
DUCK SEASON!In the same newscast, these figures were reported:
2200 confirmed cases
110 deaths.
People are saying that the federal government is already mobilizing specialized units, ... to ensure no isolation violations will be perpetrated by the Easter Bunny.
Since all available eggs are in use creating that vaccine the president says is almost here, then the Easter Bunny will have no eggs to distribute. Even the Easter Bunny is unemployed?
Maybe we will only have a chocolate Easter.
Beer manufacturers and distributors are open. Are chocolate factories and stores open? Read
the fine print .
I found this informative:
[YOUTUBEWIDE]BtN-goy9VOY[/YOUTUBEWIDE]
This was also worthy:
[YOUTUBEWIDE]I5-dI74zxPg[/YOUTUBEWIDE]
[ATTACH]70091[/ATTACH]
3 hours in the air so is 2m enough?
4 hours on copper so cover every often touched surface with copper foil.
24 hours on cardboard so let those Amazon boxes sit on the porch for a day.
3 days on stainless and plastic so wipe those bad boys with some of that booze you're swigging.
“Up to” 3 hours.
Truth is, the virus starts “dying” almost immediately. If you looked at a graph of the number of live viruses on a surface after a person sneezes on it, it would look like a graph of the stock market over the last week. The number of living viruses begins plummeting almost immediately.
But sure, wash your hands. Don’t lick the pizza box.
It's true. The national stockpile is 75 million masks.
But they are just for emergencies
This just made me want to beat my head against my monitor. Thanks for bringing that up.
Arizona still has very few cases, and people are generally acting right, so no lockdowns yet (though bars, restaurants, etc are closed and they are considering assigning times to people for grocery shopping and pharmacies.)
Perhaps it isn't the time for levity, but the title of this article made me smile.
[ATTACH]70098[/ATTACH]
We will have to get used to this.
Every afternoon the prime minister strides into a butterscotch room in Downing Street and stands at a lectern between two drooping flags to give the latest dolorous news to an uncertain nation.
How ironic that Boris, who instinctively loathes ‘doomsters and gloomsters’, is obliged to play the mortician’s bean--counter and recite the daily tallies of the infected and the dead.
He’s flanked by the best brains in the land. On the right, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s top scientific adviser.
To the left, Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer. They wear the usual suit-and-tie uniform of reassuring officialdom. And both men stand a few inches taller than the Prime Minister.
Theatre directors call this the ‘stage picture’, meaning the visual contours that show the relative status of the characters in a scene.
Link. Five free articles are available.
Don’t lick the pizza box.
Don't lick the--
Dammit!!:mad2:
Don’t lick the pizza box.
That's not living.
The Cellar: This is the dawning of the age of aquariums
[SIZE="3"]Fearing coronavirus, Arizona man dies after taking a form of chloroquine used in aquariums[/SIZE]
A Phoenix-area man is dead and his wife is under critical care after the two took chloroquine phosphate in an apparent attempt to self-medicate for the novel coronavirus, according to hospital system Banner Health.
It does not appear they took the pharmaceutical version of the drug, but rather "an additive commonly used at aquariums to clean fish tanks," Banner Health said in a statement. ...
The Cellar: This is the dawning of the age of aquariums
Some people are just smart enough to be dangerous.
Touch a chicken to spread that chicken grease on your hands. How long does it take your soap to remove that grease? That is how long one must wash hands with that brand soap.
Many soaps are poor. Feel diluted. A test says which soaps will better remove that infectious protein. Many soaps from dispensers really do not clean very well.
Nobody is killing a virus. A virus really does not live. That protein must be damaged or it must be removed. Removing (with better and more abrasive soaps) does more.
The number of living viruses begins plummeting almost immediately.
Unfortunately, those other viruses are not so contagious. And more people have immunity to many of them. Nobody has immunity to this virus that is also so contagious.
My question is do the folks that have recovered have immunity now?
I've heard yes and no.
Went to the drugstore, sign out front that they would bring it out to your car or to home if you felt sick.
Table right inside the door with instructions but I didn't get a chance to read them before the girl up front came over gave be a squirt of hand cleaner and ushered me back toward the pharmacy. She, like everyone, was wearing a mask, so I told her I was pretty deaf and read lips. She lifted her mask to apologize. I said gotcha. Fuck CVS, this pharmacy has personality.
Re-infection: best current information is looking like no, based on early rhesus monkey tests
although the virus is likely to mutate and come back somewhat differently if seasonal and let's just not think about that part of this right now
… although the virus is likely to mutate and come back somewhat differently if seasonal and let's just not think about that part of this right now
Let's hope this early assessment on that is right.
[SIZE="3"]Scientists say the coronavirus is not mutating quickly and might respond to a single vaccine[/SIZE]
Scientists studying the novel coronavirus' genetic code say it does not appear to be mutating quickly, suggesting any vaccine developed for it will likely remain effective in the long term.
Peter Thielen, a molecular geneticist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, told The Washington Post that the strains of the virus infecting people in the U.S. have only about four to 10 genetic variations between the strain that emerged in Wuhan, China.
"That's a relatively small number of mutations for having passed through a large number of people," he told the newspaper. "At this point the mutation rate of the virus would suggest that the vaccine developed for SARS-CoV-2 would be a single vaccine, rather than a new vaccine every year like the flu vaccine."
Thielen compared the eventual vaccine to those used for illnesses such as chickenpox or measles, which generally immunize patients long-term. ...
I don’t know if anyone has seen the internet rumours about how the Coronavirus started but I’m sure the accounts of a fuck up in the Wuhan Institute of Virology seems to be a more believable story,( who according to articles I’ve read have been researching this virus since 2016’) than some Fucker eating a bowl of bat soup or something from a seafood market.
Any opinions?
:shock:
Et tu, Brute?
[SIZE="3"]States say doctors are stockpiling trial coronavirus drugs — for themselves[/SIZE]
Doctors are hoarding medications touted as possible coronavirus treatments by writing prescriptions for themselves and family members, according to pharmacy boards in states across the country.
The stockpiling has become so worrisome in Idaho, Kentucky, Ohio, Nevada, Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Texas that the boards in those states have issued emergency restrictions or guidelines on how the drugs can be dispensed at pharmacies. More states are expected to follow suit.
This is a real issue, and it is not some product of a few isolated bad apples,” said Jay Campbell, executive director of the North Carolina Board of Pharmacy.
The medications being prescribed differ slightly from state to state, but include those lauded by President Trump at televised briefings as potential breakthrough treatments for the virus, which has killed more than 500 people in the United States and infected at least 43,000.
None of the drugs have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for that use. Some of them — including chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine — are commonly used to treat malaria, lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, and other conditions. ...
@ Be-bop - I don;t think so. And it didn't enter the population via someone eating bat soup. Best current assessment based on gene studies is that it crossed species into bats who then rapidly cross infected each other ( bats immune systems don;t go into fatal meltdowns with the presence of new viruses) then crossed into another species, possibly pangolins who then infected humans,
We don't need a culprit for this - it was always going to happen sooner or later - it does happen periodically and always has (all the great plagues and pandemics are due to viruses jumping species) - what we have is a perfect storm of a disease that is highly contagious, spread through flu like mechanisms, and a global community jumping on planes and thronging city streets
I read a good case for the Pangolin link.
I read that China has put a ban on wet markets, but I doubt it because besides live animals and seafood they also sell veggies and other perishable food.
None of the drugs have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for that use. Some of them — including chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine — are commonly used to treat malaria, lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, and other conditions. ...
One guy figured out how to beat the system, he discovered there is hydroxychloroquine in his aquarium cleaner.
The virus won't bother him now because he's dead... and his wife is very close to it.
They'll probably still send him a stimulus check.
… then crossed into another species, possibly pangolins who then infected humans ...
I read a good case for the Pangolin link. ...
Wikipedia says pangolins have been ruled out as a direct source.
One guy figured out how to beat the system, he discovered there is hydroxychloroquine in his aquarium cleaner.
The virus won't bother him now because he's dead... and his wife is very close to it.
Meanwhile people who actually take that drug are reporting that they can't get it anymore. :(
My friend with RA hasn't been able to get it for a while...
Yesterday Cuomo had the apex in NY 14-21 days out. They will run out of hospital beds. Cases are currently doubling every 3 days.
You know the terrible kids who are ignoring this? I know one and could have predicted this from year 5. Sometimes parents do a bad job. Flew to Colorado as the news was breaking, flew back into Philly, conned her not boyfriends Dad into picking them up, was refused entry into home, went to her college apartment to party for a couple days, started a road trip to Florida to her Uncles place , he told her not to come, stopped at her aunts place and got chewed out... Both parents have health issues and her Gramma is aged but gotta party. Pete called her on her bullshit and she straight up lied about it.
Prince Charles tested positive
I have both of his parents on my death pool list. :/
Always look on the bright side of life...
The Royal family is close, except for King Harry and Queen Megan.
Waiting in line for the grocery store now. Police are present to make sure everyone behaves. Hoping that if I got here early they might still have some toilet paper on the shelves, but given the number of people still ahead of me, I'm expecting to be disappointed.
That family is made of strong stuff. Philip will turn 99 this year, he keeps getting hospitalized, but he keeps escaping...... I think the queen might have missed a church service once for a bad cold?
… I'm expecting to be disappointed.
Grab a stack of their printed weekly flyers. Those will work in a pinch and leave you with a free tattoo.
Prince Charles tested positive
I have both of his parents on my death pool list. :/
HRH is actually suffering from Crownavirus.
I thought that I should make that clear. ;)
Because he's never going to wear it?
Prince Charles tested positive
I have both of his parents on my death pool list. :/
My Mom is 84. Twil's Mom is 93. Both live in physically separate structures, in different cities, to be clear. My Mom is ok, as of today. I have gotten calls from the staff there throughout the changing events. First it was lockdown, then a resident was showing symptoms, then yesterday a call saying the test results have been returned and show negative. No change in lockdown, stay in your room status, meals delivered, etc. Twil's Mom is thriving, apparently all she needed all along was just regular room service.
Layoffs at my hospital. I asked my manager, "I thought we were sitting on a mountain of cash?" (we've been stockpiling capital to build a new facility) ... Apparently we had our money INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET.
Layoffs at a HOSPITAL because of the ƒucking stock market.
This feels more and more like a "perfect storm" every day.
Yes. Without drifting too far away from topic, the best description I've heard is:
Our systems are built to maximize efficiency... at the price of becoming fragile.
People laugh at squirrels after learning how many acorns they bury. But they aren't burying enough to survive this winter. Evolution has made them store enough to survive the very WORST winter.
Damn, it was hard enough finding a place to bury my nuts before the Kung Flu screwed the pooch. :rolleyes:
… Layoffs at a HOSPITAL because of the ƒucking stock market.
This feels more and more like a "perfect storm" every day.
Coronavirus Disease AND Chicken Little Syndrome. A double whammy!
If you die with coronavirus, stay dead.
[SIZE="3"]Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients[/SIZE]
Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes — how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.
The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.
Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members — a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the one. …
… Officials at George Washington University Hospital in the District say they have had similar conversations, …
… University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, one of the country’s major hot spots for infections, is dealing with the problem by severely limiting the number of responders to a contagious patient in cardiac or respiratory arrest.
Several large hospital systems — Atrium Health in the Carolinas, Geisinger in Pennsylvania and regional Kaiser Permanente networks — are looking at guidelines that would allow doctors to override the wishes of the coronavirus patient or family members on a case-by-case basis ...
:lol:
They're supposed to already have "what if" contingency plans for a biological attack; but, they're just now getting around to doing a feasibility study:
[SIZE="3"]Army seeks retired medical personnel to rejoin service to combat the coronavirus[/SIZE]
The Army has launched an effort to see whether retired doctors, nurses and medics may be willing to be recalled to military service, citing the “extraordinary challenges” that the coronavirus pandemic has created.
An Army general said in a message to eligible veterans that the Army is turning to “trusted professionals capable of operating under constantly changing conditions” and “reaching out to gauge the interest” of those who qualify. The solicitation, obtained by The Washington Post, applies to both retired officers and enlisted soldiers. ...
40,000 retired NY health professionals have volunteered to help. Amazing and a little scary when you thin about Whois likely to end up on a ventilator.
Rolin' rollin' rollin'
Keep them retirees rollin'
Volunteers
Don't try to understand them
Just rope, throw and brand 'em
Soon they'll be kneeling high and wide
Move 'em out head 'em up get 'em up
Move 'em out head 'em up get 'em up
Free labor!
.
.
.
ETA: Of course, the Army promises they won't interfere with civilian volunteer resourcing. :rolleyes:
Another study on origin.
[SIZE="3"]Sorry, conspiracy theorists. Study concludes COVID-19 'is not a laboratory construct'[/SIZE]
… An analysis of the evidence, according to the findings first published in the scientific journal Nature Medicine, shows that the novel coronavirus "is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus," with the researchers concluding "we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
"There’s a lot of speculation and conspiracy theories that went to a pretty high level," Dr. Robert Garry, a professor at the Tulane University School of Medicine and one of the authors of the study, told ABC News, "so we felt it was important to get a team together to examine evidence of this new coronavirus to determine what we could about the origin."
Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, supported the study’s findings, writing on his blog, "This study leaves little room to refute a natural origin for COVID-19."
Researchers concluded that the novel coronavirus is not a human creation because it does not share any "previously used virus backbone." It likely arose, the study said, from a recombination of a virus found in bats and another virus, possibly originating from pangolins, otherwise known as scaly anteaters.
COVID-19 is 96% identical to a coronavirus found in bats, researchers said, but with a certain variation that could explain what has made it so infectious.
"We know from the study of other coronaviruses that they’re able to acquire this [variation] and they can then become more pathogenic," …
… The mutation in surface proteins, according to Garry, could have triggered the outbreak of the pandemic, but it’s also possible that a less severe version of the illness was circulating through the population for years, perhaps even decades, before escalating to this point.
"We don’t know if those mutations were picked up more recently or a long time ago," Garry told ABC News. "It’s impossible to say if it actually was a mutation that triggered the pandemic, but either way, it would have been a naturally occurring process."
And while many believe the virus originated at a fish market in Wuhan, China, Garry said that it is also a misconception.
"Our analyses, and others too, point to an earlier origin than that," Garry said. "There were definitely cases there, but that wasn’t the origin of the virus."
Iran gave us another slap in the face by outdoing our dead guy, who consumed chloroquine phosphate from fish tank cleaner, and having over 300 of their people kill themselves by consuming methanol:
[SIZE="3"]Hundreds dead in Iran after consuming methanol thinking it was coronavirus protection[/SIZE]
More than 300 people have died and a further 1,000 have fallen ill in Iran after consuming methanol in the belief that it will protect them against the coronavirus, according to local media. ...
do those count as COVID-19 deaths or merely Darwin Awardees?
They volunteered for those trials.
They're NATIONAL HEROES!
do those count as COVID-19 deaths or merely Darwin Awardees?
Same category or different as the guy who dies of a heart attack because the hospitals are overwhelmed?
If the guy who dies of a heart attack, because the hospitals are overwhelmed, leaves his toilet paper to the healthcare workers... he's a NATIONAL HERO!
This is quite good. A doctor in NY city who is treating the COVID-19 patients exclusively due to the volume of cases. It's a long video, I watched it at 1.25x speed with the captions on. Five stars *****
[YOUTUBEWIDE]WxyH1rkuLaw[/YOUTUBEWIDE]
TL;DR
1 -- Hand hygiene. Wash your hands, sanitize your hands when you can't wash your hands.
2 -- Stop touching your face.
3 -- Wear a mask or a bandanna to help you become aware of your hands moving to your face. It does not need to be a medical mask. The mask will not prevent the disease, it helps you stop carrying the disease from your hands to your face.
4 -- Maintain social distancing
***
After these points, he discusses in detail a number of questions from the other members of his video meeting. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED.
Urn numbers would seem to be a good indicator.
Urns should be fairly reliable for tracking deaths.
I wonder if anyone died of other causes during that time period. I wonder how many urns the funeral homes normally go through.
When hospitals are over-whelmed folks start dying of things the shouldn't...
Off topic again, but I always hate to see a picture of a crematorium with smoke rising in the background.
Ricky Gervais did a bit...
… 3 -- Wear a mask or a bandanna to help you become aware of your hands moving to your face. It does not need to be a medical mask. The mask will not prevent the disease, it helps you stop carrying the disease from your hands to your face.
This needs clarification:
Bandanas and non-medical masks won't prevent the disease. Medical masks like the N95 most certainly can prevent airborne transmission to the respiratory route of infection. That's why healthcare workers wear them. Droplets from a close proximity cough or sneeze are quite hazardous; but, healthcare workers can't always avoid them even though droplets settle out of the air within a few seconds. The probability of non-healthcare workers being coughed or sneezed on by infectious contacts is lower; but, that doesn't change the efficacy of wearing medical masks if it happens.
In addition to droplets, aerosolized viruses that can hang in the air for extended periods can be stopped by wearing medical masks. The risk there; however, is thought to be low in any setting.
Even with medical masks, disease prevention is only as effective as one's proficiency with all of the recommended infection control techniques combined. It is for this reason that most non-healthcare people will not benefit significantly from having medical masks.
I used to teach aseptic technique and grade students on their application of it. It's amazing how many ways there are to break asepsis and cross contaminate things in the work area without ever realizing that you've done it. I've had students swear on a stack of bibles that breaches I told them I had observed while grading them never happened. They actually believed it; but, I video-recorded their procedures and ol' one eye don't lie.
The key is to not get discouraged and continue improving. The goal is to bring everyone up to a level of infection control proficiency that makes it worthwhile for them all to use medical masks. It looks like the pandemic is going to give everyone ample time to do that and perhaps there will be an ample supply by the time everyone is capable of making good use of it.
In this day and age, it is vitally important NOT to listen to government representatives and agencies, world organizations, and national media. The people you must listen to are Internet geeks.
No joke
Here is a great Slate Star Codex blog post that really gives the lowdown on masks. He summarizes the actual science, and will tell you what the media is not smart enough to tell you.
And a commenter tells us why cloth masks like bandanas don't really work, and it's immediately understandable:
The droplet that would have entered your mouth instead lands on the fabric, where the water evaporates, leaving airborne virus that you inhale.
N95 masks work in part because the holes in the mask/filter media are smaller than some dimensions of the virus. Fabric has holes on the micron scale.
Iran gave us another slap in the face by outdoing our dead guy, who consumed chloroquine phosphate from fish tank cleaner, and having over 300 of their people kill themselves by consuming methanol:
That's some Olympic grade stupidity.
Why should I believe Slate Star Codex over a dozen other pieces I've read?
Because he summarizes the actual published science and I vouched for him.
My masks are reusable and have replaceable filters. It costs a little more; but, to me, I'm worth it. Go figure.
Data sheet.
… A particulate filter element exceeding the requirements of NIOSH 42CFR84 P100 and EN 14387 (P3) is incorporated, ensuring effective performance against all dusts, mists, fumes, biological agents (bacteria, virus, fungal spores etc), including radioactive dusts. When combined with an appropriate chemical protective mask, the CBRNCF50 filter canister protects the face, eyes and gastrointestinal tract of the wearer against known chemical and biological agents in aerosol, liquid and vapor form including: ...
Urn numbers would seem to be a good indicator.
Urns should be fairly reliable for tracking deaths.
I wonder if anyone died of other causes during that time period. I wonder how many urns the funeral homes normally go through.
unless urn suppliers are cashing in and doing family deals..... one's gone, you're all doomed, think ahead....
Iran gave us another slap in the face by outdoing our dead guy, who consumed chloroquine phosphate from fish tank cleaner, and having over 300 of their people kill themselves by consuming methanol:
That's some Olympic grade stupidity.
It really is about time Florida got on board with the whole COVID thing..... we must be #1 in all things at all times
And a commenter tells us why cloth masks like bandanas don't really work, and it's immediately understandable:
Does he talk about whether cloth masks reduce the wearer inadvertently spreading the virus?
I'll answer my own question, yes it does reduce transmission from wearer to others. He agrees.
Simple cloth masks will also help prevent exposing others to the scourge of civilized peoples, halitosis.
hmmm... maybe I'll brush my teeth again.
My theory is that in the US this is hitting the rich people first. Probably due to the fact that only the well-off do trips to China and northern Italy.
In
Montgomery County PA where I live they have a map of cases and one township currently has more than double the numbers of cases than any other township.
It's Lower Merion township, where all the rich folks are!
Delaware County has a similar map and it's Radnor and Haverford where all the rich folks are... but then, Upper Darby where there are no rich folks at all, so it broke the streak.
Chester County, it's Tredyffrin and Easttown right down the main line from Montgomery's Lower Merion.
In all counties, the rich people who live out in the sticks seem protected.
My theory is that in the US this is hitting the rich people first.
UT's evidence is distorted by one fact. Towns with highest numbers are also towns with most of the county's population. Numbers by percentages would say something more accurate. But his conclusion may be true. Since many of those towns also contain a large number of commuters to NYC.
Some of the first counties that were ordered shutdown include Wayne and Pike counties in NE Pennsylvania and Leigh county. These counties also have plenty of rich people who commute daily to NYC on Interstates 78 and 80 - completely across NJ.
Counties in New Jersey also hard hit are those adjacent to NYC.
Business travelers tend to be richer than others. Conventions, client meetings, giving talks, trying to woo new clients. All of that is consistent with covid exposure.
UT's evidence is distorted by one fact. Towns with highest numbers are also towns with most of the county's population.
Yes but
Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71
2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4
Just saying, it's an interesting phenomenon
2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4
Those people in Norristown do not commute to NYC.
I was rather amazed how many in Lower Merion and other rich towns will even drive to Trenton to take a train into NYC. Blue collar workers in Norristown would not do that kind of commuting.
I was amazed, even in the 1970s, how many people commuted daily from PA across NJ to NYC and Newark. Those are counties that have higher Covid-19 cases. Blue collar workers cannot afford such commutes.
Was rather surprised that Montgomery County (not Philadelphia County) was Pennsylvania's first hot spot. And that was (as your map shows) mostly in the heavily populated eastern towns (Upper Providence being the exception).
First known cases in Montgomery County were all from travel, and by their locations ("...Lower Merion couple, and residents of Lower Gwynedd, and Worcester Township") I am wagering they have mad buckage.
https://www.theintell.com/news/20200309/doctor-with-coronavirus-exposed-at-least-13-montgomery-county-residents-to-covid-19
Montgomery County Commissioner Chairwoman Dr. Valerie Arkoosh confirmed a cardiologist, who works for CHOP at its King of Prussia outpatient center, tested positive for COVID-19. The patient acquired the virus during a trip outside the U.S. to a country where the virus is active, according to Arkoosh, who did not identify the country.
...
Four other Montgomery County residents who have tested presumed positive have mild symptoms and they are self-isolating at home, Arkoosh said.
They include a Lower Merion couple, and residents of Lower Gwynedd, and Worcester Township who also contracted the virus during either overseas or out-of- state travel to places where the virus is active.
Arkoosh pointed out that so far all the Montgomery County positive cases were travel-acquired, rather than community-acquired allowing health officials to trace contacts to the original source of infection.
I think it's been reported as fact that this is a rich people first virus. Early cases in Mexico were rich folks who vacationed in Colorado. If you fly you have a higher chance of picking this up.
[YOUTUBE]gxAaO2rsdIs[/YOUTUBE]
… 3 -- Wear a mask or a bandanna to help you become aware of your hands moving to your face. It does not need to be a medical mask. The mask will not prevent the disease, it helps you stop carrying the disease from your hands to your face.
This needs clarification:
Bandanas and non-medical masks won't prevent the disease.
We're literally saying the same thing. Perhaps you didn't watch the video, that's ok. The point of the masks, as I have summarized from the doctor's video, is to help make the wearer aware of the practically inescapable subconscious tendency for people to touch their faces. Ol' one eye has documented this, Ol' bandanna helps highlight this habit in real time.
Your points about aerosols are well taken, but the video talks about the difference in risk between carrying the virus from your hand to your face versus aerosols and the difference is overwhelming. If a bandanna keeps me from carrying the virus from my hand to my face then it's doing the job it's designed for.
I did watch the video and found some of what the doctor had to say disconcerting. I wanted to ensure that no one would take away from your summarization that the primary point of all masks used by non-healthcare people was to help prevent hand to face transmission. No harm in that.
Ok, what remarks did the doctor make that you find disconcerting?
I can start with the title saying how easy it is to not get infected. If it were that easy, few would be getting infected. My experience as an instructor-evaluator with ol' one eye says that even with knowledgeable people it's not so easy. This doctor seems to be trying to convince himself (and others) that it is; so, he doesn't have to fret about it...a self prescribed placebo. He said he used to be afraid; but, now he's not. Only dead people have no fear.
He thanks people for donating medical masks; but, says it's not yet enough and downplays their intrinsic value to others while emphasizing the tangent value of non-medical masks. Conflict of interest.
He mentioned distancing by 2-3 feet when others are on the 6 foot distancing sheet of music. He's mixing healthcare worker compromises with recommended practices for non-healthcare people.
The gist of it is, teaching standards can fall by the wayside when subject matter experts go rogue. I believe this to be the case here.
As a senior instructor, I've been a course quality control NCO. I used to formally evaluate instructors by watching their presentations (in person or via classroom cameras and a monitor in my office). The assessment is standardized and I've evaluated presenters from EMTs to orthopedic surgeons. I have a practiced eye and recognize that even the best of intentions can yield questionable results if not presented properly. That's where I'm coming from.
[COLOR="White"].
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Field hospital opens on the soccer field just north of Seattle.
Another field hospital opens up at Century Link Field, in downtown Seattle, y'know, where the Seahawks and Sounders FC play.
It looks like this country's
vacation has been extended through the end of April. I expect that Governors and Mayors who have issued Stay At Home orders will follow suit and extend them.
[SIZE="3"]Trump says coronavirus 'peak in death rate' likely in 2 weeks, extends social-distancing guidelines through April 30[/SIZE]
… President Trump declared that "the peak in death rate" in the coronavirus pandemic "is likely to hit in two weeks," and said the federal government will be extending its social-distancing guidelines through April 30. …
… Saying his earlier hope that the country could reopen by Easter was "just an aspiration,"...
Delaware County has a similar map and it's Radnor and Haverford where all the rich folks are... but then, Upper Darby where there are no rich folks at all, so it broke the streak.
You have to establish an account to see them, but Upper Darby is where the help lives.
… President Trump declared that "the peak in death rate" in the coronavirus pandemic "is likely to hit in two weeks," and said the federal government will be extending its social-distancing guidelines through April 30. …
… Saying his earlier hope that the country could reopen by Easter was "just an aspiration,"...
I love those two quotes together...
Another field hospital opens up at Century Link Field, in downtown Seattle, y'know, where the Seahawks and Sounders FC play.
And
Central Park.
Coronavirus Origin Theories
Source: (link on first post removed)
Hello robertca, welcome to the cellar.
Tripped across this, surfing:
[ATTACH]70143[/ATTACH]
My governor just told us all that June 10th is the earliest we will be free to travel.
He's a Democrat AND a doctor; so, he has to one-up everyone else.
Here's a nicely written article that looks at the pros and cons of wearing facemasks, non-medical masks in particular, in public. It comes as the CDC considers the overall value of adding the practice to its guidelines:
[SIZE="3"]CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public[/SIZE]
... June 10th is the earliest we will be free to travel.
Then we can all say, "What happened to spring?" And not be suffering from dementia.
Does anyone have insight into what's happening in Florida? Are they depending on local response?
China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret and declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.
I don't like it when anonymous intelligence officials make claims to the press. But this is not shocking news. The CDC said early on that they could not depend on China's numbers, and were using the figures from travel-related illnesses for their projections.
This thing was a mystery for far too long because of those fuckers. They even continue to lie today. The world is left to clean up their mess. Chinese government is asshoe.
The CDC said early on that they could not depend on China's numbers, and were using the figures from travel-related illnesses for their projections.
But not earliest on: apparently Dr. Brix noted during yesterday's conference that the CDC depended on China's information during the early phase. That makes sense, as it took time for travelers to travel, and for their illnesses to be diagnosed and more information collected. The point at which I saw the CDC say they were using travel information was a few days into the US reaction.
Of course China lied. They're using 5000 funerary urns per day above normal use. Or were.
That being said, deaths in NYC passed the 1000 mark.
https://apnews.com/57ed90189a682fff96b25e7e1805facfOk, what remarks did the doctor make that you find disconcerting?
Not to beat a dead horse; but, your video doctor may have found a protagonist in Trump:
[SIZE="3"]Trump suggests wearing a scarf against coronavirus. The CDC isn’t so sure.[/SIZE]
With the video doctor's peers; however, not so much:
Surgeon General Jerome Adams said last month that people could increase their chance of getting coronavirus if they wore masks without training. Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health, an immunologist who is a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said weeks ago that wearing a mask could encourage people to touch their face more, possibly increasing their chance of infection.
[BOLD MINE]
The disparity between the video doc and other prominent docs is also disconcerting.
It'll be interesting to see what lessons are learned and by whom.
There remains scant evidence wearing a mask- especially improperly- provides much benefit to a healthy wearer.
However emerging data suggests facial coverings may prevent asymptomatic disease transmission to others.
6h ago as of 1230 pacific time 02 Apr 2020
emphasis mine
if you're doing it wrong, it's gonna be wrong. As for dead horses, the doctor in the first video stressed that the purpose of wearing a mask was to help the wearer become alert to the unconscious habit of touching one's face and to stop doing it. so if you're doing it, touching your face either because you're wearing a mask or because you don't have a mask to help you become aware that you're touching your face, you're still not helping yourself by touching your face and the mask is irrelevant. I suppose if the mask makes you touch your face *more*, that's a problem, but maybe you're just not using the right mask.
Everybody says stop touching your face.
If a mask helps accomplish this, great. Pockets work too--until you take your hand from your pocket to touch your face. The current news that masks maybe/probably help reduce transmission of the disease FROM asymptomatic carriers is good news in addition to any face touching reductions masks may facilitate.
[YOUTUBE]wv-34w8kGPM[/YOUTUBE]
I saw this today...
Under its newest COVID-19 prevention guidelines, China does not include in its overall daily count for total and for new cases those who retest positive after being released from medical care. China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.
Retest positive? Reinfected?
Don't count asymptomatic who have tested positive or not tested?
Hmm, more suspicion on their numbers.
Does anyone have insight into what's happening in Florida? Are they depending on local response?
They finally locked down on the 1st
I think it's been reported as fact that this is a rich people first virus. Early cases in Mexico were rich folks who vacationed in Colorado. If you fly you have a higher chance of picking this up.
Yes but
Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71
2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4
Just saying, it's an interesting phenomenon
Here, zipcode and ethnic stats show it's the poorer people who are getting infected
https://www.washtenaw.org/3108/Cases?fbclid=IwAR2uUarbXHzoXBWx7-663acvfWn2QwyYC2tB4cpnr_PUG0W0E4r0lv0Bkp0
48197 and 48198 are the zips for Ypsilanti and cover the poorest areas in the county.
You can see hope on this map
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
In the middle of the page, second map down is "Where cases are rising fastest". The places it hit first and people went into harder lockdown mode are turning light pink. Seattle, SF, Brooklyn, and here in PA, Montgomery County and Chester County. Here, new rates are taking longer than a week to double. Hopefully this means the curve has changed in these locations.
Here, zipcode and ethnic stats show it's the poorer people who are getting infected
It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places;
NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.
Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000
It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.
Also, they're living right on top of one another. those zipcodes are full of blocks of tiny apartments and trailer parks crammed with tiny trailers
My current case load of kids includes 3 moms who are home health aides. These are very poor people who are pulling extra shifts because folks with resources are sitting home. We have the poor serving the old and infirm. I'm a supporter of keeping folks out of nursing homes if at all possible but this isn't going to go well.
My local example.
On 3/29, I noted:
Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71
2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4
Five days later, today, 4/3:
Rich folk Lower Merion cases: 123. This area is doubling roughly every 8-9 days.
Working class Norristown cases: 12. The area is doubling roughly every 3 days.
Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000
National Review has reported that number.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-death-toll-the-incinerators-have-been-working-around-the-clock/OK I need to get a Post subscription to fully understand quickly breaking items. That was the Post's analysis, not a re-estimate by authorities.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I don't know where they get data or who they are but the chart is interesting breaking things down by million population.
Most excellent update on the
IHME models website which everyone is using
Overall US:
- # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766
- Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654
- Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged
- Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18
It's moving from the richer places to the poorer places; NY Times suggests this is because the poorer are not restricting their movement because many of them can't afford to stay home, and many of them are essential.
That might be worth remembering later.
Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers
Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using
Chart demonstrated one critical fact. Once major urban regions were locked down, then the acceleration of that curve slowed three weeks later. This infection requires at least two weeks to appear in victims.
So what happened when 'remain at home' orders are removed? A majority still do not have antibodies to protect them. And then, weeks later, many more are infected? And then, two weeks after that, those curves start climbing again?
Predictions do not discuss what will happen once everyone no longer remains isolated at home. Over 60% of us must suffer this virus and create antibodies before this pandemic ends.
Poor also have higher rates of co-morbidity problems for this disease: hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and they are more likely to be smokers
:( also less likely to be well informed in the main. This is so.... aaaaargh.
That BBC article also discusses, on 27 March, the cruise ship Zaandam. That ship and the other mentioned ship, Rotterdam, remain adjacent and docked in Fort Lauderdale.
Some cruise ships are still operating.
Real-time maps of PM2.5 have shown particulate matter DOWN in recent times. Here is windy.com's PM2.5 in China right now. But generally, in the recent past when you look at this map, it is deep orange over Wuhan. Greenpeace put the 2013 average at 88.7 (Beijing 90.1).
Compare with NYC's averages which are around 10.
6 weeks later, The Times is on it!
NY Times: New Research Links Air Pollution to Higher Coronavirus Death Rates
(LOL, the NY Times story doesn't mention the PM2.5 numbers in Wuhan, or anywhere in China for that matter. It only mentions the relative numbers in NYC.)
Two days later, most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using
Overall US:
- # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766 to 60,415
- Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654 to 15,852
- Peak dates (April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) down to April 13/12
- Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18 to May 16
New speculation is that the disease resembles high altitude sickness, and docs are on their way to developing a way to fight it with the new details they have found. One possible outcome is that respirators may be the wrong approach.
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases
*Infections: 1,447,466
*Deaths: 83,471
*Recovered: 308,215
-----
*World Population: 8,000,000,000
*approximate
Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 1,446,557 cases worldwide; 399,929 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 8, 2020.
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.
Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 83,149 deaths reported worldwide; 12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 1,446,557 cases worldwide; 399,929 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 8, 2020.
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.
Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 83,149 deaths reported worldwide; 12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
Wait. So the flu has 12,000 death in a slow YEAR, and Covid has 12,900 death in a MONTH, and you think they are about the same, even though the Covid deaths are occurring while we are all under lock down?
I guess we'll all know in March 2021 if Covid was worse in a year than the seasonal flu. Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong?
… even though the Covid deaths are occurring while we are all under lock down? ...
The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.
The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.
Wrong vaccine or wrong flu? Who do we blame?
The flu deaths are occurring even though we have a vaccine.
Good point.
12,900 death in a MONTH
That's the total deaths, not monthly.
Do you think you'll have the courage to admit when you are wrong?
Will you?
It's only been a bit over a month since the first US COVID-19 death.
It's only been a bit over a month since the first US COVID-19 death.
True. My time sense is flummoxed.
However...
There had been at least 23,000 U.S. deaths related to the flu as of 3-14 (the most recent count I could find from the CDC).
Flu season lasts about 13 weeks and usually ends by April, meaning the season runs from January to March.
So: 23,000 flu deaths in two and half months; 12,911 wu flu deaths in a month.
Since people are fascinated by comparisons to the flu, remember-- we do everything we can in response to the flu.
Every year, as a healthcare worker, you MUST get a flu vaccine or you are NOT ALLOWED to show up to work. Employee health will send you home and dock your pay. For the general public-- an awareness campaign of "get your flu vaccine" is broadcast to the public by every means possible, and you can go to the pharmacy, drugstore, many places to get the vaccine.
That's because we HAVE a vaccine for the flu. That's the tool we have.
For coronavirus, we are using the tools we have. It's the exact same thing-- the exact same response. A full-court press using the best tools available.
The best takeaway is that the flu response should be MORE robust-- we should focus MORE on hand hygiene, we should do MORE* to make sure workers are not showing up sick. If we are serious about public health, we could reduce the flu deaths.
*anything
The flu season starts in October, and
estimated deaths as of Mar 28 are 24000-63000. So, 4000 to 10,500 per month over six months. October and November are at the low end of the curve, so even putting the whole count into the December-March four months, the range is 6,000-15,750 per month.
Note that I made that four-month example because the first two months of flu season have relatively few deaths. the 12-13000 count for COVID-19 is for its first month.
My link was to an estimate, also from the CDC, which takes those weekly numbers as input.
Your links also reference my point that those numbers are for the 2019-2020 season; they are not solely 2020 numbers.
Your links also reference my point that those numbers are for the 2019-2020 season; they are not solely 2020 numbers.
-----
You have to note the month of (historically) greatest activity (February): not hard to imagine the bulk of those 23,000 deaths happenin' then
Anyway: I find it unseemly to argue essentially about which bug is gonna kill more people.
I'll continue, as I like, to post the John Hopkins global numbers (and the U.S. subset of those numbers and the flu comparison [both also from John Hopkins]).
Analyze or ignore as you like.
Since January, yet the WHO was tracking this local outbreak in Wuhan since November.
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:
Sweden did not implement a lockdown. They have been considered the world's guinea pig in what might happen if you just go about your business
It's beginning to look like that was a mistake... compared to next door Norway which did lock down.
I do not believe this graph includes today's numbers...
Sweden... 721 new cases, 112 new deaths
Norway... 144 new cases, 7 new deaths
But then there's the long run. Their goal was to reach herd immunity quickly. Let's see how it works out for them...
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:
Are your schools still open?? :sniff:
My kids' school closed like a month ago and it's going to stay closed for the rest of the year.
Our Swedish friends are super defensive about this. They do a lot of things right there but this looks like a mistake. They tried to isolate their old-timers but it maybe isn't working. It seems reasonable that building herd immunity could work and maybe long term it will but right now that's an ugly graph.
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:
I am very sad to hear this news Clodfobble. I do not have anything profound to say. I am full of sadness at almost every turn.
Are your schools still open?? :sniff:
My kids' school closed like a month ago and it's going to stay closed for the rest of the year.
Oh goodness, no, we haven't had classes since before spring break. Admin emailed parents about the death ahead of time, and will be reading a prepared announcement to the kids during their first period Zoom on Monday. But we had families self-isolating even before schools shut down because they worked at Dell and were exposed to a contractor from India who tested positive after returning home, plus one of the very first confirmed cases in Austin was an extracurricular teacher at our school. (No idea if this kid was connected to him, but for his sake I hope not--the teacher didn't show symptoms until school was already out and he doesn't deserve to go through life shouldering that kind of guilt.)
I don't know about the so many liberal art majors. But I took classes only to learn something. What do they do? Do they get their tuition money back? Do they get a half credit for the course? In the courses I took, all that information was necessary for the next hundred level classes.
Since people are fascinated by comparisons to the flu, remember-- we do everything we can in response to the flu.
Every year, as a healthcare worker, you MUST get a flu vaccine or you are NOT ALLOWED to show up to work. Employee health will send you home and dock your pay. For the general public-- an awareness campaign of "get your flu vaccine" is broadcast to the public by every means possible, and you can go to the pharmacy, drugstore, many places to get the vaccine.
That's because we HAVE a vaccine for the flu. That's the tool we have.
For coronavirus, we are using the tools we have. It's the exact same thing-- the exact same response. A full-court press using the best tools available.
The best takeaway is that the flu response should be MORE robust-- we should focus MORE on hand hygiene, we should do MORE* to make sure workers are not showing up sick. If we are serious about public health, we could reduce the flu deaths.
*anything
This! This a thousand times.
It has been a constant source of frustration to me that standard absence management systems in most major companies inexorably lead to people attending work when ill -
Points based systems and 3 strikes and you lose your bonus type systems - regardless of whether all those absences were legitimate or not.
So - maybe you hurt back and have a couple of days off work, then a couple months later you catch a stomach bug - and then when flu season hits and you end up with a mild to moderate case of flu, do you call in sick to protect your colleagues, and in doing so potentially face a disciplinary warning and loss of your annual bonus - or, do you take lemsip or other flu meds to alleviate the worst of the symptoms and struggle on through the week til you can rest at the weekend?
We are so blase about seasonal flu, yet it kills thousands of people every year - and we just pass it around the office soldiering through the week with very little thought to how that virus may affect one of the people we pass it to, or the people they pass it to.
We just lost an 8th grader at our school. There's going to be so much fucking sadness everywhere before this is over. :sniff:
damn
Damn that is so sad. 8th grader is what, 13-14?
Yes. Same grade as Minifob, who knew him, though not well.
Sweden did not implement a lockdown. They have been considered the world's guinea pig in what might happen if you just go about your business
It's beginning to look like that was a mistake... compared to next door Norway which did lock down.
I do not believe this graph includes today's numbers...
Sweden... 721 new cases, 112 new deaths
Norway... 144 new cases, 7 new deaths
But then there's the long run. Their goal was to reach herd immunity quickly. Let's see how it works out for them...
If somebody wanted to follow those numbers, where would they find the source of your graph?
The logarithmic graph actually minimizes the difference. At first glance, I thought the Cases/Day line wasn't as different in scale as I would have thought (though, of course, the direction change was the important thing).
The graph came out of my firehose feeds out there... but the raw country-level stats are collected at
Worldometers covid page.
The graph came out of my firehose feeds out there... but the raw country-level stats are collected at Worldometers covid page.
Puerto Rico retracted 1 death previously reported on April 9
In an honest world: we'd see a whole whack of
retractions, now and in the future, but it ain't so we won't.
Why would we see "a whole whack of retractions", are you saying you don't believe the numbers?
Why would we see "a whole whack of retractions", are you saying you don't believe the numbers?
I think mebbe some of the numbers comin' out of some locations are inflated, yeah.
I can't prove it.
Chalk it up to my mean-spirited, suspicious nature.
But why would anyone inflate (infection, death) numbers, Henry?
Money, it's a hit
Don't give me that do goody good bullshitMost interesting to compare the current IHME models for...
Sweden - pop. ~10M, projected 13,259 deaths
Denmark - pop. ~5.5M, projected 1,575 deaths
Norway - pop. ~5.5M, projected 925 deaths
Finland - pop. ~5.5M, projected 226 deaths
Sweden has 79 ICU beds available and the model says they will need about 3400. :thepain:
These are just models, and we can't predict the future accurately, and we don't know what the situation will be long run... still,...
How does that work in India...
Any list of actual deaths will be an undercount, due to the lack of testing. Puerto Rico is an undercount, as there are certainly more than one person who died of it that wasn't tested for it.
Estimates may be over or under, depending on the model, but tallies will be under.
Any list of actual deaths will be an undercount, due to the lack of testing. Puerto Rico is an undercount, as there are certainly more than one person who died of it that wasn't tested for it.
Estimates may be over or under, depending on the model, but tallies will be under.
Global infections numbers are low: if we could get an accurate account I'm bettin' way more folks were infected and were asymptomatic.
Global death numbers could be low cuz, for example, China is a lyin' sack commie fest who lie just about everything...
...or...
...global death numbers could be high cuz some of those deaths had nuthin' to do with wu flu complications.
Global recovery numbers are low cuz, again, I'm bettin' way more folks were infected and were asymptomatic.
Locale numbers (infections & deaths) I'm bettin' are inflated, by a little or by a lot, I can't say.
-----
money how?
How is political process.
Why is greasin' the squeaky wheel (or, if you prefer,
...to each according to [claimed] need).
[YOUTUBE]Xkqtcm3w7Vw[/YOUTUBE]
Lots of stuff in this podcast relevant to this thread and the COVID politics thread.
So, do you really think this is overblown and not much more serious than seasonal flu?
[SIZE="3"]Smoking weed and coronavirus: Even occasional use raises risk of COVID-19 complications[/SIZE]
If you're smoking weed to ease your stress during the coronavirus pandemic, experts say it's time to think twice.
Smoking marijuana, even occasionally, can increase your risk for more severe complications from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
"What happens to your airways when you smoke cannabis is that it causes some degree of inflammation, very similar to bronchitis, very similar to the type of inflammation that cigarette smoking can cause," said pulmonologist Dr. Albert Rizzo, chief medical officer for the American Lung Association. "Now you have some airway inflammation and you get an infection on top of it. So, yes, your chance of getting more complications is there." ...
The bad news is: y'all gonna die. The good news is: you probably won't be stressed out about it.
So, do you really think this is overblown and not much more serious than seasonal flu?
Yes.
I think by April 30 this will be apparent.
I also think the doomsayers will claim it was
mitigation that averted the Coronapocalypse. I think they'll know it wasn't, but they'll say it anyway. They'll have charts and clever dissections of the data and
models to evidence their (face & career saving) claims. And their claims will get a huge amount of press. Equally reputable folks who dispute their claims with their own charts, clever dissections, and
models will largely be ignored.
As usual: folks like me and you will be left to do our own research, reason through what we find, and draw our own conclusions.
As for here and now: As I reason through all this, ignorin' pressers and coverage and personalities and heart-string pullin' and scary predictions, lookin' just at numbers, I believe we're bein' hoodwinked.
admit my error, my hubris, my wrongness.
But, if I'm right, will you?
As near as I can tell any critter can carry the virus just as packages and surfaces can, but it doesn't bother some animals and others it does. No virus bothers Bats and they carry all sorts of them which makes me wonder if they pick them up from their insect diet?
Dogs, cattle, pigs, domestic cats, tigers, lions, and pangolins can get sick.
Maybe buffalo, goats, sheep, pigeons, and civets.
Pigs, chickens, and mice are like bats.
These lists are constantly changing as there are a lot of people investigating this right now.
@ Henry - London has had to build an entire emergency hospital and New York is digging mass graves. I don't recall the last flu season where that had to happen.
My sister in law is a community nurse, in fact she runs the local nursing team. She's worked through many a bad flu season, but this is different. The intensity of the outbreak and the fact that cases are so crammed into a tight timescale, coupled with the global nature of it which makes sourcing necessary supplies more difficult, makes for a very, very different situation.
… New York is digging mass graves. ...
Oh, they solved that problem: they're feeding them to the alligators in the sewers.
Yes.
I think by April 30 this will be apparent.
I also think the doomsayers will claim it was mitigation that averted the Coronapocalypse. I think they'll know it wasn't, but they'll say it anyway. They'll have charts and clever dissections of the data and models to evidence their (face & career saving) claims. And their claims will get a huge amount of press. Equally reputable folks who dispute their claims with their own charts, clever dissections, and models will largely be ignored.
As usual: folks like me and you will be left to do our own research, reason through what we find, and draw our own conclusions.
As for here and now: As I reason through all this, ignorin' pressers and coverage and personalities and heart-string pullin' and scary predictions, lookin' just at numbers, I believe we're bein' hoodwinked.
You seem to be making ideological statements rather than statements of fact or even informed opinion.
quoting, no, paraphrasing hq:
my mind's made up, you all are going to present some stuff, it's going to contradict the sources I anticipate will confirm what I've already concluded, you guys are so dumb.
What ever dude. It's like that old playground meta-fight, "Well, my dad can beat up your dad!" I'm not here to persuade you. You are cold iron. Exempt. For the record, you're wrong, but exempt from my influence. The virus is also exempt, so good luck with that.
Dana,
I'll plow through numbers (just numbers) tomorrow. For now, I say only this: New York, New Orleans, etc. are in dire straits (cuz of pop density, pop composition, cosmopolitanism, resource management). Most of the world is not (at least no more than usual).
The numbers don't lie (they can only be accurate or inaccurate; this applies to current totals and subsets of those totals, no matter how arbitrarily defined those subsets are) ; local misery doesn't justify widespread lockdowns.
We've allowed *individual liberties to be constrained; allowed local, regional, state, national, world economies to be purposefully repressed, all to combat a nasty cold.
More tomorrow.
-----
Luce,
Lookin' only at numbers and drawin' my own conclusions is ideological, unfactual, and ill-informed?
Really?
We'll have to agree to disagree.
-----
V,
That ain't paraphrasin', that's flat-out lyin'. It's what I expect from He who only knows how to write, not from you.
You're right about one thing: I'm not here to persuade you..
Do your own research, reason through what you find, and draw your own conclusions.
*in the West where at least there's some lip-service paid to the idea; elsewhere, like China, where individual liberty is a pipe dream, folks are just eatin' the same old shit
I'll plow through numbers (just numbers) tomorrow.
So far, you're posting covid numbers based on what happens when we socially restrict, and comparing them to flu numbers that happen when we don't. That is not very useful, and I suggest you don't do that.
The only numbers that actually matter are the
R0 number and the death rate. R0 to tell us how communicative it is: the number of people that one infected person will also infect. Death rate to tell us how many people die when infected.
So far, you're posting covid numbers based on what happens when we socially restrict, and comparing them to flu numbers that happen when we don't. That is not very useful, and I suggest you don't do that.
All I've done is post numbers and comparisons made by Johns Hopkins. If you believe the numbers are in error, or the comparisons faulty, take it up with them.
However, you suggest I don't post those numbers or comparisons. It's your house, so: okay, I won't.
Aside: we vaccinate for the flu extensively, and still folks die, in LARGE numbers. Sophisticated vaccination programs vs a haphazard, honor system of social distancing.
Yep, okay, if you say so.
Anyway: I'll just keep my thinkin' on all matters virus to myself.
It's your house, so: okay, I won't.
That's not how this place works.
That's not how this place works.
Then, I choose to no longer participate in
virus conversation or debate.
There: all on me, nuthin' on you.
#Flounce
Had to go there.
Petty. Small.
I notice you weren't willing to call me a liar this time. I'm just reporting what I see.
I notice you weren't willing to call me a liar this time. I'm just reporting what I see.
You lied up-thread, and with
just reporting what I see you're lyin' again.
Thanks for givin' me the opportunity to elaborate.
'nuff said.
I stand by both posts.
Though I doubt the flounce will last very long.
If you're smoking weed to ease your stress during the coronavirus pandemic, experts say it's time to think twice.
Smoking marijuana, even occasionally, can increase your risk for more severe complications from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
"What happens to your airways when you smoke cannabis is that it causes some degree of inflammation, very similar to bronchitis, very similar to the type of inflammation that cigarette smoking can cause," said pulmonologist Dr. Albert Rizzo, chief medical officer for the American Lung Association. "Now you have some airway inflammation and you get an infection on top of it. So, yes, your chance of getting more complications is there." ...
~ guess what. oh you'll never ever guess! ~
Tobacco:
As of 2015, 15.1% of US adults were smokers.
In available data, 1.3% of people testing positive for COVID-19 were smokers.
WHAT?
5.2% of these were both hospitalized and admitted to an ICUs.
20% of ex-smokers testing positive were admitted to ICUs.
FUCK ME IF IT MIGHT TURN OUT SMOKING IS A COVID PREVENTATIVE.
Do you think they'll tell people that?
~ however, that is early data ~ but wait there's more! ~
Pre-print science:
Level of IL-6 predicts respiratory failure in hospitalized symptomatic COVID-19 patients
Dang. So, what inhibits IL-6?
Self-reported lifetime marijuana use and interleukin-6 levels in middle-aged African Americans
The current findings extend previous cellular and biochemical literature, which identifies an inverse association between IL-6 and marijuana use. Examining this relationship in the psychological and behavioral literature could be informative to the development of clinical interventions for inflammatory diseases.
Now, I'm not saying. I'm really not. This is on the order of conspiracy theory. It's just a notion. Still, if it turns out weed is a preventative...
...do you think they'll tell people that?
Maybe, if someone (or group) makes a sufficient donation to the American Lung Association.
Henry, it's fine. We shall have the debate whether you care to participate or not. It will be more fun if you participate.
12,911 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 8, 2020
Four days later (this is as of yesterday)
22,020 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 12, 2020
Source: Johns Hopkins
related: right now mortality rate in Europe is 3x higher than US, per case. don't know why that is
related: right now mortality rate in Europe is 3x higher than US, per case. don't know why that is
That might be because the outbreak is further along in many parts of Europe - so they have had longer for individual outcomes to play out
That's gotta be it, or most of it - we see how much 4 days difference makes
related: right now mortality rate in Europe is 3x higher than US, per case. don't know why that is
Must be because they smoke less marijuana.
Think we should tell them?
I'm sure that's not it even though I desperately want to suit the facts to my agenda
As far as only 1.3% of U.S. coronavirus patients being smokers, I wonder how that breaks out once you control for age? Smoking always has been a young person's game, if only because they're more likely to die from cancer and other stuff before they have a chance to get terribly old.
related: right now mortality rate in Europe is 3x higher than US, per case. don't know why that is
Overwhelmed hospitals are surely part of the equation. In Italy things got so bad they issued a "no one over age 60 gets treatment" order. Not sure if it's still in place.
This is one of those "correlation does not equal causation" moments.
So far, you're posting covid numbers based on what happens when we socially restrict, and comparing them to flu numbers that happen when we don't. That is not very useful, and I suggest you don't do that.
The only numbers that actually matter are the R0 number and the death rate. R0 to tell us how communicative it is: the number of people that one infected person will also infect. Death rate to tell us how many people die when infected.
This is why I always read Undertoad's posts.
Don't do that, I am often wrong.
I usually accept corrections though
Oh for the love of FSM ... Just in case things weren't fucked up enough, these dicks:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52281315
The UK's mobile networks have reported a further 20 cases of phone masts being targeted in suspected arson attacks over the Easter weekend.
Trade group Mobile UK said it had been notified of incidents in England, Wales and Scotland.
One of the targeted sites provides mobile connectivity to a hospital in Birmingham.
The figure represents a lower incidence rate than had been the case the previous weekend.
Mobile UK added it had received no reports of staff being targeted over the period.
Attacks on 5G masts pre-date the coronavirus pandemic. But there are concerns a surge in the amount of vandalism has been caused by conspiracy theories, which falsely claim the deployment of 5G networks has caused or helped accelerate the spread of Covid-19.
"Theories being spread about 5G are baseless and are not grounded in credible scientific theory," said a spokesman for Mobile UK.
The chief executive of Vodafone UK added that one of the targeted sites serves Birmingham's Nightingale hospital.
"It's heart-rending enough that families cannot be there at the bedside of loved ones who are critically ill," wrote Nick Jeffrey on LinkedIn.
"It's even more upsetting that even the small solace of a phone or video call may now be denied them because of the selfish actions of a few deluded conspiracy theorists.
My guess is the conspiracy nuts are being played by folks with an anti-Chinese tech agenda.
The UK's mobile networks have reported a further 20 cases of phone masts being targeted in suspected arson attacks over the Easter weekend.
You didn't hear. Trump blamed it on UK using evil Huawei hardware. It must be true!
Just another part of the China disease.
Don't do that, I am often wrong.
I usually accept corrections though
I didn't say you're always right, I meant you say things worth reading.
You and I are diametrically-opposed politically, but you can't just listen to your own side.
And in this case you are absolutely correct.
Oh for the love of FSM ... Just in case things weren't fucked up enough, these dicks: ...
Those rascals from Torchwood Four have finally shown themselves again.
Victory Mindset GO
Stat: Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment
The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of Remdesivir.
“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the Remdesivir studies for the hospital.
Previous studies have put the death rate for severe cases at 50%. 2/113 = 1.8%. Not a bad decrease, if it can be replicated.
I noticed the death rate for Philadelphia County is 1.8%.
The adjoining Counties in PA;
Delaware 3.1%
Chester 3.8%
Montgomery 3.3%
Bucks 3.9%
And across the river in New Jersey;
Burlington 3.6%
Camden 3.1%
Gloucester 2.3%
In PA the 2nd ring of counties;
Lancaster 3.0%
Berks 2.2%
Lehigh 1.3%
Northampton 2.1%
I think the flaw in this is nobody knows how many are infected.
I noticed the death rate for Philadelphia County is 1.8%.
The adjoining Counties in PA;
Delaware 3.1%
Chester 3.8%
Montgomery 3.3%
Bucks 3.9%
And across the river in New Jersey;
Burlington 3.6%
Camden 3.1%
Gloucester 2.3%
In PA the 2nd ring of counties;
Lancaster 3.0%
Berks 2.2%
Lehigh 1.3%
Northampton 2.1%
I think the flaw in this is nobody knows how many are infected.
The flaw in just about all of the death rate figures is that nobody knows how many are infected.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
That information will be coming in
This study from Santa Clara County did antibody testing on a random set of people on April 3 and April 4... Results were only published today, April 17, which shows how long it takes to get everything right.
In order to show that everything we think we know, may be wrong again (although this may not be a great study, they recruited their subjects via Facebook ads!)
the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Conclusions
The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
People smarter than me are pointing out that it's not just sampling, but the reliability of the test itself that makes this study questionable
10,000 MLB employee survey coming up
MIT Paper shows that the NYC subway has been a major point of infection.
The longer time you spent on the train, the greater your chances of infection.
Also the Mayor never shut the subway down, but in lockdown busses and trains were the only mode of transportation -- and the subway had fewer trains running, ensuring that each train was full...
New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Local train lines appear to have a higher propensity to transmit infection than express lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan. Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.
MIT Paper shows that the NYC subway has been a major point of infection.
The longer time you spent on the train, the greater your chances of infection.
Also the Mayor never shut the subway down, but in lockdown busses and trains were the only mode of transportation -- and the subway had fewer trains running, ensuring that each train was full...
It's the same in London.
Second week of lockdown and Tube still packed with only 43% of trains running.
Transport for London has confirmed that only 43% of services are running on the Tube despite carriages still remaining packed.
Some London Underground trains remained crowded on Monday despite a further fall in passenger numbers and TfL calling for its services to only be used for ‘essential journeys by vital workers in the NHS and other critical services’.
It said passenger numbers on Monday morning were down 94% compared with the same day last year, but admitted to Metro.co.uk that only 43% of trains are running at normal times compared with 50% last week.
At peak times, 50% of services are running, a spokesman said.
Passengers are still complaining about the lack of space as they travel to work, leading to them being unable to follow government guidance to keep two metres away from others.
London Underground stations, especially those on the 'Tube' where the tunnels are barely larger than the trains, aren't particularly healthy places at the best of times due to the piston effect of air being pushed ahead of the trains.
I shudder to think of the speed that infection can be spread around the network.
Metro NewspaperThe difficulty though is that for a lot of people, including key workers, that's the only way for them to get to work - especially given many of the will not be able to afford to live in the borough where they work have to commute from outside the centre and hop on the subway for the last leg of it. If they got to the centre and then walked to their destination you could probably add another hour to an already long journey.
They better get their shit together on cleaning those. I expect they'll introduce some UV? lighting along with a better cleaning regimen. The cars get shipped up here to Elmira for service.
For our conspiracy minded friends off-shoring all our societies problems, I believe the new cars are built in China.
The conspiracy nuts are too busy burning down phone masts because 5G
The difficulty though is that for a lot of people, including key workers, that's the only way for them to get to work - especially given many of the will not be able to afford to live in the borough where they work have to commute from outside the centre and hop on the subway for the last leg of it. If they got to the centre and then walked to their destination you could probably add another hour to an already long journey.
The figures for transport use, reported in the daily media briefing, would indicate that the overwhelming majority of people have heeded the plea not to travel unnecessarily.
It would have made sense in the beginning, instead of halving services, to have kept a near normal service going thereby thinning out the passenger load and associated risk of infection for those key workers.
Unfortunately, any attempt to reinstate the level of service to that end would give the impression that normality has returned with the consequent, and unwanted, increase in passenger numbers.
From another era...
[ATTACH]70340[/ATTACH]
you can see it "spreading" along the freeways here in Michigan -if you look at the county by county map of cases and draw lines connecting the high areas, you've drawn the freeway system. But.... near the freeway system is where most people live..... they all go through Detroit.....
just something I notice when I see this map each day. We're the red 870, right on that freeway linke between Detroit and Chicago :( So easy to draw in the main North-South route too.....
[ATTACH]70341[/ATTACH]
The DC metro has dramatically reduced service and closed some stations. I can see the trains passing when I go for a walk in my neighborhood. I always look for passengers in the windows, and the most I ever saw was 3 on one train. But to be fair, they go by pretty fast and I might miss some heads when I am counting.
I wish they would shut the Metro down entirely and use this time to perform track maintenance. They will be closing sections of the track for a month or two this summer to perform maintenance, and I really don’t understand why they don’t just do it now.
They will be closing sections of the track for a month or two this summer to perform maintenance, and I really don’t understand why they don’t just do it now.
Unfortunately, the actual maintenance is only a small part of that operation. Plenty is setup is first required.
A house can be built is 3 or 4 months. But it takes years of work before that house can be built. A similar example.
NYC once had porta-potties that disinfected themselves after each user.
Maybe we could have taxi cabs that did that?
so why does it no longer have them?
so why does it no longer have them?
You had to pay. They were expensive. It was an innovative (and maybe necessary) attempt. But it did not last.
They probably would have been more desirable in Philadelphia and San Francisco where finding a bathroom is harder.
Meanwhile what is a problem now for truck drivers? Finding a bathroom and finding a place for food - because truck drivers cannot use drive-thrus.
it was kind of a rhetorical question.... :rolleyes:
Ivermectin is being studied. This is in common use veterinary medicine in the US and in the third world for people. It would be cheap if found effective.
"It would be cheap if found effective."
If they decide to use it , it will become $10,000 a dose. I have faith in these pharmaceutical fuckers. I read the PDF and it looks to be effective.
Yeah, the folks running our world right now have monetized every damn thing.
Ivormectin? Is that a worming med? I think that might be the drug that a lot of Collie dogs have a sensitivity to. If you have a collie it needs testing to see if it has a particular genetic disposition - if it does, then even a small dose can represent an overdose for them.
Yeah, it's a de-wormer. We used it on our goats for brain worm. For dogs it's a heartworm med. I vaguely remember something about collies.
Weird how quiet henry's gotten in the last week. :rolleyes:
I hope he's OK.
I reject his logic about the virus and the seriousness of our shared situation, but I want him to be safe.
IIRC, he seems to post in spurts, quiet periods aren't unheard of.
(see what I did there)
Weird how quiet henry's gotten in the last week. :rolleyes:
Henry has PMd his retirement from the forum for now after I conversationally suggested he shouldn't post the figures (because I felt he was wrong)
I have since announced my retirement from conversational posting
That leaves more conversations with Clodfobble for me.
I'm OK with that.
I'm sure it'll be short lived.
Weird how quiet henry's gotten in the last week. :rolleyes:
Accordin' to V I'm havin' a
flounce.
I hope he's OK.
I reject his logic about the virus and the seriousness of our shared situation, but I want him to be safe.
And I reject your logic about the virus and the seriousness of our separate situations, but I hope you're safe too.
That leaves more conversations with Clodfobble for me.
I'm OK with that.
I'm sure it'll be short lived.
She's all yours.
Hi hq. I'm glad you're ok. Thanks for checking in.
Hi hq. I'm glad you're ok. Thanks for checking in.
Hey, V. Me too. You're welcome.
Here's another wrinkle from New England Journal of Medicine
5 New Yorkers age 33, 37, 39, 44, and 49 suffered large vessel strokes from the Corvid-19 virus.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009787?query=RP
Doctors in Wuhan say 5% suffered strokes but the youngest was 55.
Doctors in Wuhan say 5% suffered strokes but the youngest was 55.
5% of serious cases?
or 5% of all infections? Because 5% of all infections would be a huge number.
I don't know but I would guess of hospitalized cases, which would be the serious ones.
edit : yes hospitalized.
Heard yesterday that my friend and work colleague's mum is in hospital with Covid. Don;t know how bad she is but I suspect its very not good. Her mum isnt elderly, she's only in her early 60s, but has lung problems.
I dont know when Clo last saw her mum face to face before this - she was at the hospital last I heard.
I am worried for her, because of her mum, obviously, but I am also worried about Clo herself - her asthma gets quite bad sometimes.
That's got tragedy written all over it. Dana, I'm sorry to hear about this, please give my best to your friend and her mom. From a safe distance of course, but the distance itself is an additional problem. Sorry. :(
I hope she pulls through, Dana.
I was talking to a guy in Texas today and he was telling me he was trying to figure out how to access a vent on his roof. When I told him to be careful he said no problem he has medicare if he gets hurt. I reminded him a hospital is the very last place you want to be right now.
Legit question; When should we know whether Sweden's plan is working? Since folks are turning it into a hammer for their own agendas. I'd like to see a list of the actual measures taken along with the societal factors which make them similar or dissimilar to us. I guess it all hangs on herd immunity...
Maybe the Brits save our ass here.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/oxford-scientist-says-its-vaccine-making-headway-could-show-efficacy-n1198946
Nature magazine is publishing blurbs for short attention span or sensible people who don't want to obsess.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-wI guess it all hangs on herd immunity...
For us to acquire herd immunity without a vaccine would require 70% of the population to get sick in a short period of time.
Yeah, I believe that's what Sweden is attempting? Obviously you'd need a functional healthcare system and an effective way to isolate the old and infirm. Otherwise you get:
https://www.wwlp.com/news/local-news/hampden-county/deaths-at-soldiers-home-in-holyoke-surpasses-70-as-5-more-veterans-with-covid-19-pass-away/To the tune of Bohemian Rhapsody:
Coronavirus Rhapsody
March 19, 2020 by Jonco
Lyrics by Dana Jay Bein
Is this a sore throat?
Is this just allergies?
Caught in a lockdown
No escape from reality.
Don’t touch your eyes
Just hand sanitize quicklyyyyy
I’m just a poor boy, no job security
Because of easy spread, even though
washed your hands, laying low
I look out the window, the curve doesn’t look flatter to me, to me
mama, i just killed a man
didn’t stay inside in bed
walked by him and now he’s dead
mama, life was so much fun
but now I’ve caught this unforgiving plague
mama, oooooh
didn’t mean to make them die
if I’m not back to work this time tomorrow
carry on, carry on as if people didn’t matter
oo late, my time has come
sends shivers down my spine
body’s aching all the time
goodbye everybody, I’ve got the flu
gotta leave you all behind and face the truth
mama, oooooh
I don’t wanna die
I sometimes wish I never went out at all
I see a little silhouette of a man
what a douche, what a douche
did he even wash his hands though
security is tightening
very very frightening me
Gotta lay low (gotta lay low)
Gotta lay low (gotta lay low)
Gotta lay low masturbate
Masturbate O O O O
I’m just a poor boy, facing mortality
HE’S JUST A POOR BOY FACING MORTALITY
spare him his life from this monstrosity
Touch your face, wash your hands, will you wash your hands?
BISMILLAH NO WE WILL NOT WASH OUR HANDS! (WASH YOUR HANDS!)
BISMILLAH NO WE WILL NOT WASH OUR HANDS! (WASH YOUR HANDS)
BISMILLAH WE WILL NOT WASH YOUR HANDS! (WASH YOUR HANDS!)
WASH YOUR HANDS! (never, never, never wash your hands oh oh oh oh oh oh oh)
No no no no no
Oh mama mia, mia (mama mia wash your hands!)
COVID-19 has a sickness put aside for me, for me
So you think you can stop me and just shake my hand?
So you think we can hang out and not break our plans?
Oh baby, can’t do this with me, baby,
Just gotta stay home, just gotta stay home with my fever
oooooh
Curving can get flatter
Anyone can see
Curving can get flatter
Curving can get flatter, you’ll see
Just look out your windows….
I suppose some new art will come out of this social isolation thing. As well as some rethinking of classic artwork:
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To the tune of Bohemian Rhapsody:
Coronavirus Rhapsody
March 19, 2020 by Jonco
Lyrics by Dana Jay Bein
Is this a sore throat?
Is this just allergies?
Caught in a lockdown
No escape from reality.
Don’t touch your eyes
Just hand sanitize quicklyyyyy
I’m just a poor boy, no job security
Because of easy spread, even though
washed your hands, laying low
I look out the window, the curve doesn’t look flatter to me, to me
mama, i just killed a man
didn’t stay inside in bed
walked by him and now he’s dead
mama, life was so much fun
but now I’ve caught this unforgiving plague
mama, oooooh
didn’t mean to make them die
if I’m not back to work this time tomorrow
carry on, carry on as if people didn’t matter
oo late, my time has come
sends shivers down my spine
body’s aching all the time
goodbye everybody, I’ve got the flu
gotta leave you all behind and face the truth
mama, oooooh
I don’t wanna die
I sometimes wish I never went out at all
I see a little silhouette of a man
what a douche, what a douche
did he even wash his hands though
security is tightening
very very frightening me
Gotta lay low (gotta lay low)
Gotta lay low (gotta lay low)
Gotta lay low masturbate
Masturbate O O O O
I’m just a poor boy, facing mortality
HE’S JUST A POOR BOY FACING MORTALITY
spare him his life from this monstrosity
Touch your face, wash your hands, will you wash your hands?
BISMILLAH NO WE WILL NOT WASH OUR HANDS! (WASH YOUR HANDS!)
BISMILLAH NO WE WILL NOT WASH OUR HANDS! (WASH YOUR HANDS)
BISMILLAH WE WILL NOT WASH YOUR HANDS! (WASH YOUR HANDS!)
WASH YOUR HANDS! (never, never, never wash your hands oh oh oh oh oh oh oh)
No no no no no
Oh mama mia, mia (mama mia wash your hands!)
COVID-19 has a sickness put aside for me, for me
So you think you can stop me and just shake my hand?
So you think we can hang out and not break our plans?
Oh baby, can’t do this with me, baby,
Just gotta stay home, just gotta stay home with my fever
oooooh
Curving can get flatter
Anyone can see
Curving can get flatter
Curving can get flatter, you’ll see
Just look out your windows….
[YOUTUBEWIDE]9Eo9M4-BrJA[/YOUTUBEWIDE]
Maybe the Brits save our ass here.
There are maybe 75 different vaccines in development. If we get lucky, one or a few will be successful. All are currently as promising as that Oxford vaccine.
Problem is obvious. Previous vaccines worked because, first, actual medical processes were first learned. We still do not know how this virus transfers. What in the immune system properly attacks it. Why some, already with antibodies, still get sick again. Or even if the coronavirus, as found in bats, is somehow different after it must first go into some other wild animal before infecting man.
A Mers coronavirus, normally found in some bats, must first go through a camel before it infects man. Why?
All those vaccines are predicated on speculation. On a hope that the necessary underlying science was understood. So that a vaccine, that requires four or ten years, might arrive in 1.5.
At least 3000 coronaviruses have been identified. Plenty more await discovery. Only seven are known to survive in man. Some are more contagious then others. A few cause a cytokine storm that causes death. Many others do not. Why?
A measles vaccine will last a lifetime. It appears immunity from Sars (another coronavirus) only lasts 2 years. Mers - 3 years. Many other flues - only six months. Why? Those two have only been known for one or two decades. So not enough time has existed to understand it.
What is 'memory' in B and T cells that make possible a recovery from Covid-19? Unknown. What then is a vaccine suppose to target to be successful?
What we do know. We still do not know very much.
Every solution (especially those hyped by a scumbag president) are best ignored as only wild speculation. In his case, promoted so that he will be reelected. Screw you Covid-19 victims. He cares about them just like Hitler was concerned with Jewish safety.
Another currently promoted myth, using emotions, is that smokers are better protected from Covid-19. Then we include facts that are too complicated for tweeters or political extremists.
Apparently nicotine tends to bind to a protein called ACE2. This is the protein that is somehow related to cytokine storms. Meaning a Covid-19 victim has less symptoms. But is still infecting others.
So the naive claim smoking is protection from Covid-19 only because the person is asymptomatic - but still infecting others.
Misinformation from sources such as hearsay, The Don, wild speculation, Fox News, and promoters of the Clorox cure.
We have no reason to believe any solution exists in the next 1.5 years. But we sure do have plenty of adults, acting like children, and promoting a solution as almost ready. Because some other stranger told them it was true. Which lies more? Peers or what was read on the internet?
Apparently nicotine tends to bind to a protein called ACE2. This is the protein that is somehow related to cytokine storms.
Nicotine also treats and prevents Parkinson's disease. The results begin within days of starting patients on a nicotine patch. If you're going into the hospital with COVID-19, maybe bring a box.
Texas has officially begun opening back up, as you may have heard, and we're starting to get emails and phone calls from all the various doctors whose appointments we've missed, explaining how the rescheduling process will work and what the safety guidelines will look like going forward... One interesting thing is that Minifob was scheduled for sinus surgery at the end of May--now looking like sometime mid-summer--and he will now be required to get a COVID-19 test in the days just before the procedure. They asked if I was okay with that, and I said yes, but I was unsure how we were supposed to make that happen. The receptionist claimed they would write the lab order, and we would take it to CPL just like any regular blood test to have it done. This seems... unrealistic to me. Testing capacity is still way beneath the levels needed to even test symptomatic people, let alone random folks with no symptoms. But hey, I could be wrong. I guess we'll find out.
It looks like a cruise ship convention. In one anchorage is Carnival Pride, Carnival Sunrise, Carnival Elation, Carnival Horizon, Carnival Vista, Carnival Sunshine, with Carnival Pardise apparently heading to port for supplies, Carnival Fantasy resupplying, and Carnival Sensation returning. Carnival Glory is sitting elsewhere at anchor. And Carnival Magic wandering off the Med. Carnival Fascination, Carnival Liberty, and Carnival Dream going who knows where.
Another nearby anchorage has collected Oasis of the Seas, Mariner of the Seas, Anthem of the Seas, Adventure of the Seas, Navigator of the Seas, Empress of the Seas, Symphony of the Seas, Grandeur of the Seas, and Independence of the Seas. With Magesty of the Seas and Liberty of the Seas returning for resupply. And Harmony of the Seas being resupplied. Also anchored far out there in the ocean are Celebrity Summit, Celebrity Sihouette, Celebrity Edge, Celebrity Equinox, Celebrity Infinity, and Celbrity Reflection.
Scattered elsewhere are Norwegian Pearl, Norwegian Gem, Norwegian Dawn, Norwegian Getaway, Norwegian Sun, and Norwegian Epic.With Norwegian Escape in port being resupplied.
Another anchorage has Msc Meraviglia, Msc Divina, Msc Presziosa, and Msc Seaside.
Plenty of Princess line ships (ie Orlando Princess), Disney (ie Disney Magic, Disney Dream, Disney Fantasy) and numerous other lines also scatter ships in seas between eastern Fl and in a large ocean between Freeport and Nassua Bahama.
A fortune of gigantic ships, once mostly cruising slowly or only drifting in the Gulf Stream, have now conjegated in large groups out in the ocean. Who knew there were that many cruise ships simply off Florida alone? Each ship alone one employeed over 1000 crewmen. Norwegian lines says they may not survive. It is rather hard to believe cruise lines, that carry 3000+ passengers on each ship, would not have major cash flow problems. And being foreign companies, cannot run to a generous US government for liquidity.
How much longer can they keep going to US ports to be resupplied when they cannot pay the bills?
If you're going into the hospital with COVID-19, maybe bring a box.
If going to the hospital, then it is probably too late to douse the ACE2 protein with nicotene. Better is to become a guinea pig for a new drug trial.
It looks like a cruise ship convention. In one anchorage is Carnival Pride, Carnival Sunrise, Carnival Elation, Carnival Horizon, Carnival Vista, Carnival Sunshine, with Carnival Pardise apparently heading to port for supplies, Carnival Fantasy resupplying, and Carnival Sensation returning. Carnival Glory is sitting elsewhere at anchor. And Carnival Magic wandering off the Med. Carnival Fascination, Carnival Liberty, and Carnival Dream going who knows where.
Another nearby anchorage has collected Oasis of the Seas, Mariner of the Seas, Anthem of the Seas, Adventure of the Seas, Navigator of the Seas, Empress of the Seas, Symphony of the Seas, Grandeur of the Seas, and Independence of the Seas. With Magesty of the Seas and Liberty of the Seas returning for resupply. And Harmony of the Seas being resupplied. Also anchored far out there in the ocean are Celebrity Summit, Celebrity Sihouette, Celebrity Edge, Celebrity Equinox, Celebrity Infinity, and Celbrity Reflection.
Scattered elsewhere are Norwegian Pearl, Norwegian Gem, Norwegian Dawn, Norwegian Getaway, Norwegian Sun, and Norwegian Epic.With Norwegian Escape in port being resupplied.
Another anchorage has Msc Meraviglia, Msc Divina, Msc Presziosa, and Msc Seaside.
Plenty of Princess line ships (ie Orlando Princess), Disney (ie Disney Magic, Disney Dream, Disney Fantasy) and numerous other lines also scatter ships in seas between eastern Fl and in a large ocean between Freeport and Nassua Bahama.
A fortune of gigantic ships, once mostly cruising slowly or only drifting in the Gulf Stream, have now conjegated in large groups out in the ocean. Who knew there were that many cruise ships simply off Florida alone? Each ship alone one employeed over 1000 crewmen. Norwegian lines says they may not survive. It is rather hard to believe cruise lines, that carry 3000+ passengers on each ship, would not have major cash flow problems. And being foreign companies, cannot run to a generous US government for liquidity.
How much longer can they keep going to US ports to be resupplied when they cannot pay the bills?
This post would have been better with pictures. Like the flyby video of the grounded airliners in California.
This post would have been better with pictures.
Any Carnival .... They all look alike.
Do I have to do everything myself?
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[ATTACH]70525[/ATTACH]
Yes... and make it snappy.
Last week Reuters reported we'd reach 74,000 deaths by August according to the often used University of Washington's model.
This week. Might bear improvement.
... according to the often used University of Washington's model.This week.
Those numbers suggest 6% who are infected die. That number is rather high. Which indicates how bad the problem may actually be. Number of infected is so low because, at the highest levels of government, there was always a major shortage of test kits.
That death number suggests far more people are / were infected. And undetected.
Do I have to do everything myself?
Yeph. I love watching people work. It even makes me Hungry.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/
An evangelical pastor died of COVID-19 just weeks after proudly showing off how packed his Virginia church was — and vowing to keep preaching “unless I’m in jail or the hospital.”
This story is a couple weeks old which seems a lot longer these days, but still illustrates that Darwinism is still in full effect.
When people say they won't wear a mask, and going to avoid getting sick by drinking or injecting bleach/disinfectant/magic potion, just say OK.
Darwin appreciates your faith in him.
A permanent change to the cityscape
Nearly 20 miles of Seattle streets will permanently close to most vehicle traffic by the end of May, Mayor Jenny Durkan announced Thursday.
The streets had been closed temporarily to through traffic to provide more space for people to walk and bike at a safe distance apart during the coronavirus pandemic.
Now the closures will continue even after Gov. Jay Inslee’s stay-at-home order is lifted.
BelovedDaughter lives on one of them. Well, in a house adjacent to one of them...
Where will she park and carry packages and groceries from?
An article I saw said the streets will still be open to residents. It’s just closing them to through traffic and keeping the heavy traffic on the arteries.
OK, through traffic, that's a help.
We still are not getting enough N95 masks to the front lines.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-nurse-without-an-n95-mask-raced-in-to-treat-a-code-blue-patient-she-died-14-days-later/ar-BB13ROGF
The ones we bought got "diverted at customs." I hope Trump gets a decent price from the Russians for them.
There's a factory in Texas that had 4 idle machines for making N95 masks. back in January he was getting orders for a couple thousand a month when suddenly he got orders for 700,00 in a week. He alerted the the government to this buying frenzy from overseas and offered to provide them to our country before exporting. First they ignored him then insulted him. Our government was buying them from overseas through American brokers for between $5 and $6 each. After the politically connected brokers pretty much exhausted their connection they finally gave the Texas dude an order for 1 million masks. He's charging them $0.79 each... and still has 4 machines standing idle.
[YOUTUBE]TBoxkc0-zwk[/YOUTUBE]
First potential tropical storm appears to be headed for the gaggle of empty cruise ships hiding out at sea. It may form in two days. So far, most ships are remaining.
First four storms will be Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.
Meanwhile, the Port of Miami has all docks full of cruise ships. Maybe being resupplied? Or maybe preparing to restart operations?
From financial news, these cruise ship lines did not have problem raising money. Despite cries of bankruptcy, large corporations (even foreign cruise ship companies) can obtain all money needed from American financial markets. Its the little guy who banks tend to ignore.
Trump is in PA trying to gin up the anti-mask crowd. Lil'G started her vacation today. Unfortunately, one of her boys spiked a fever during her last shift and apparently a staff member had to go home with a fever today. 3 kids are being tested one negative so far...
Verry ingteresting... if not yet clinically proven.
[SIZE="3"]This One Habit is Why Thailand Has So Few COVID Cases, Doctor Says[/SIZE]
The coronavirus pandemic has had global reach, affecting most developed nations within weeks of it leaving the Wuhan province of China from which it emanated. But curiously, nearby Thailand has enjoyed an incredibly low number of cases, which has led Dr. Amy Baxter to believe that this one personal hygiene habit is the reason: nasal irrigation.
Yesterday, Thailand authorities announced zero new coronavirus cases, and zero [new] deaths as a result of COVID-19 while announcing plans to reopen the Southeast Asian country. Since the outbreak started, there have only been 3,025 reported cases of the coronavirus in Thailand, leading to only 56 deaths. These numbers are stunningly low considering that there are 70 million individuals that live in this favorite tourist destination.
Why are these numbers so low? Well, a vast majority of Thai people regularly practice nasal irrigation or the regular cleansing of their sinus with neti pots. And according to Dr. Baxter, that's made a huge impact.
In a recent interview with Best Life, Baxter noted the total deaths in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam are particularly low. "Yes, they wear masks, and yes, they bow and don't shake hands, but the biggest difference between them and places like South Korea or Japan is that nasal irrigation is practiced by 80 percent of people," she says. Laos has had less than 20 reported cases, and Vietnam roughly 300.
After considerable research and talking to colleagues who focus on both ear, nose, and throat and pulmonary treatment, the CEO and founder of Pain Care Labs, added that she "believe[s] strongly that nasal irrigation is the key to reducing COVID-19 progression of symptoms and infectivity."
According to Baxter, recent clinical trials show that nasal irrigation reduces the duration and symptoms for other viral illnesses like flu and the common cold, though it hasn't yet been studied for COVID-19. Still, she has multiple reasons for believing that this approach can be effective in preventing coronavirus from worsening in a sick patient. "SARS-CoV2's viral load is heaviest in sinuses/nasal cavity."
There is a growing belief in medical communities that the viral load of COVID-19 is a significant variable in whether an individual gets sick or not. Baxter explained how the buildup of viral particles in one's sinus can inevitably lead to respiratory illness, but flushing it out once or twice a day "gives the immune system time to figure out what it needs while reducing the enemy."
For anyone exposed to or positive for COVID-19, Baxter offers the following specific self-treatment:
"Do a hypertonic nasal irrigation with 1/2 tsp. povidone-iodine in the a.m. and in the evening with 8 oz. boiled lukewarm tap water, 1/2 tsp. baking soda, and 1 tsp. salt per cup H20."
According to Dr. Baxter, there are now nine new registered trials trying this idea, including at Stanford, University of Kentucky, NYU Langone, University of Pittsburgh, and Vanderbilt among others.
In short, regular flushing of one's sinuses in the manner described above could be an effective way to keep the COVID-19 contagion from building up and entering your lungs and causing potentially fatal respiratory problems.
I've always thought that I could hold up under waterboarding for somewhat longer than average because I use a neti pot so often. It's basically just willfully drowning yourself in saltwater--but boy does it get the job done (the neti pot, I mean, not the torture.)
You should send that to the CIA as a suggestion for inclusion in their interrogation resistance program.
Verry ingteresting... if not yet clinically proven.
Hmmm... sounds like an easy change to make.
I've always thought that I could hold up under waterboarding for somewhat longer than average because I use a neti pot so often. It's basically just willfully drowning yourself in saltwater--but boy does it get the job done (the neti pot, I mean, not the torture.)
Worst tea ever, though.
Up your nose with a rubber hose.
I've always thought that I could hold up under waterboarding for somewhat longer than average because I use a neti pot so often. It's basically just willfully drowning yourself in saltwater--but boy does it get the job done (the neti pot, I mean, not the torture.)
****shudders****
**winces**
***shudders some more***
I honestly think I'd rather prep for a colonoscopy.
I've always thought that I could hold up under waterboarding for somewhat longer than average because I use a neti pot so often.
Let's do some experiments. I've got this secret facility in Hungary where we can test you without any outside interference or knowledge that might interfere with those tests.
We have 8 people from my workplace on PTO waiting for test results.
This took longer to hit us than I expected.
uh oh.
at your workplace can y'all space yourselves apart? Reduce exposure? I hope so.
We're bleaching anything that even slows down.
As of May 20 all 50 States are in the process of opening. I can be back in homes as of next week pending testing and training. I'll likely be tested 2x per week.
Guys please be careful and keep away from people. You never know who is infected.
Guys please be careful and keep away from people. You never know who is infected.
Yeah, my boss has it. I just got the nose thing, so I am working in isolation until results come back.
Our state here (Qld) is opening up from today so anyone can go anywhere within the state now, but the borders are still closed between the other states. We've had 0 new cases for several days now, and only 1 or 2 or 0 for the last few weeks. Only 5 active cases at present. I think our state governments in general did well in containing the virus, but our federal government are a joke. If it weren't for the state Premiers, we'd be in a mess right now.
My business has tanked though. No weddings or parties for a few months, and almost all of the weddings from this year have moved to next year, so financially things are pretty tight except for the financial packages available through centrelink (our government welfare office). Things are starting to pick up a little bit now that there's a little more certainty. So that's good.
No weddings or parties for a few months, and almost all of the weddings from this year have moved to next year,
Is the competition - an instant Las Vegas wedding featuring Elvis - back in business yet?
[SIZE="3"]Romanian shoemaker makes size 75 shoes for social distancing[/SIZE]
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Grigore Lup, from the Transylvanian city of Cluj in Romania, has been making leather shoes for 39 years.
When the pandemic hit, the shoemaker, whose shop “relies heavily on custom orders from theatres and opera houses across the country, as well as traditional folk dance ensembles,” according to Reuters, saw his business impacted.
However, according to Lup, as restrictions eased across Europe, he realised that people weren’t taking social distancing seriously - so he came up with the lengthy shoes as a way for them to keep their distance.
“You can see it on the street, people are not respecting social distancing rules,” Lup told the outlet. “I went to the market to buy seedlings for my garden. There weren’t many people there but they kept getting closer and closer. ...
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Well you can do anything
But stay off of my social distancing shoesI'm so tired of all this virus topic. I'm just waiting for 2021th lol, I believe it will be much better than 2020th.
Me, too. But there's still six months of 2020 to live through, or die from.
Isn't 2021 when COVID-20 is scheduled?
You know what else is unhealthy, getting rammed by an SUV. These are screenshots from a video of these two vehicles plowing into protesters. Came down the street side by side and a pretty good clip, not a 1mph push them back move. The video could be speeded up but hit hard enough to send bodies flying.
I put arrows pointing to a pole at the lower right. Using that pole for reference you can see how far they moved in like two seconds.
Isn't 2021 when COVID-20 is scheduled?
just the beta release
This guy survived...
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And the forecast...
CDC June 12th, 2020
~This week CDC received 17 individual national forecasts.
~This week’s national ensemble forecast suggests that there will likely be between 124,000 and 140,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 4th.
~The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, North Carolina, Utah, and Vermont will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks. For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar or decrease slightly compared to the previous four weeks.
So, it turns out that having a real estate agent/politician prescribe medicine isn't really the best option.
https://apnews.com/33f67f8aa5ef2280215087f8e5364017
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. regulators on Monday revoked emergency authorization for malaria drugs promoted by President Donald Trump for treating COVID-19 amid growing evidence they don’t work and could cause serious side effects.
The Food and Drug Administration said the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are unlikely to be effective in treating the coronavirus. Citing reports of heart complications, the FDA said the drugs’ unproven benefits “do not outweigh the known and potential risks.”
The decades-old drugs, also prescribed for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, can cause heart rhythm problems, severely low blood pressure and muscle or nerve damage.
Kinda makes you wonder about Commander Bonespur's diminishing capacity.
Kinda makes you wonder about Commander Bonespur's diminishing capacity.
If only.
I do not wonder.
I feel those that support him also do not wonder.
I'm certain our confident conclusions are 180° apart.
I heard a cosmetics manufacturer is coming out with a line of makeup that's highly facemask resistant. I don't know which one; but, their slogan will supposedly be: Uneasy, Wheezy, Wretchedly - COVIDGIRL.
They've had a series of breeches. They are looking at their quarantine implementation.
A
good article from a top epidemiologist about our realistic outlook.
Some choice quotes:
So the bottom-line message here is that this virus is going to keep transmitting to others until it hits that 60 or 70% level. And even then, it’s like a plane at 30,000 feet when the pilot announces we’re going to be dropping for landing. It doesn’t just suddenly land, it’ll just slow down... So it would not be unreasonable to say based on what I just shared with you with 100,000 deaths for 5% of the population infected, that somewhere between 800,000 and 1.6 million people could easily die from this over the course of the next 12 to 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.
There are over 120 vaccine candidates being evaluated right now. But to go to the heart of your question, will any of them make it in the goal? We don’t know... You may not be able to develop what we call durable immunity that lasts a long time. That would be a real challenge, because then you’d have to keep re-vaccinating people if that would even work. The final piece is safety... There’s also an immune enhancement phenomena where your body goes out of whack in terms of immune response. And so, one of the things that we are having to look at very carefully is the safety of these vaccines... The idea that we’re going to have a readily available vaccine by the end of this year is just not realistic.
I think one of the things we have to understand is we can’t just lockdown. I look at this with two guardrails. On one side is a guardrail where we are locked down for 18 months to try to get us all to a vaccine without anyone having to get infected or die. We will destroy not just the economy but society as we know that if we try to do that. The other guardrail is to just let it go and see what happens. We will see the kinds of deaths we just talked about and we will see healthcare systems that will literally implode... And so we’ve got to thread the rope through the needle in the middle... Those are the kinds of discussions we need to have now. If we’re not going to lock up and we’re not going to open up willy-nilly, then what is the approach? And what we’ve been trying to do is facilitate those very discussions so that people can make hard choices. What are the things that we can do to change society that will help us maintain society to the best we know but at the same time also reduce transmission? That’s a key activity right now that public health needs to be playing a very important role in.
In that light masks look to be a big deal.
https://www.pnas.org/node/931542.full?fbclid=IwAR2sEkHK-aJmF9VcEYiX1fkS7hEloMfw4vljFsQdCbhinZ6_Jq3eUlfn0x8
Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.It's very hard for folks in Shitkicker MT or NM that don't know anyone who has died or even gotten sick from it to dismiss the constant barrage of conspiracy theories on the net.
It's very hard for folks in Shitkicker MT or NM that don't know anyone who has died or even gotten sick from it to dismiss the constant barrage of conspiracy theories on the net.
Good point.
It's also very easy to dismiss people as fools for believing conspiracy theories, but if you are exposed to enough of it, often coming from sources you trust (family and friends retweeting bogus shit they've been fooled by and of course, ya know, Fox) while simultaneously seeing what appears to be the collapse of legitimate journalism (the President of the United States calling out fake media) - you will more than likely start to view these things less critically and be more accepting of a general sense of suspicion and worry.
I have a cousin closer to NYC whose wife is increasingly frustrated by the conspiracy whack jobs in our family. Our county will likely be the last rural county in PA to go green because we've murdered a bunch of nursing home folks with our shitty attitudes. We're just far enough from NYC to believe we're safe.
Fun fact I learned yesterday: if you call the paramedics for a completely non-COVID reason, they will stand on your porch arguing for 5 minutes that you should carry the patient downstairs to them so that they don't have to enter your home. I get that they have a hard job right now, but Jesus fucking Christ.
If their clothing (protective gear) is contaminated they'd bring it into your house. If your house is contaminated then they and their equipment gets soiled.
And it's not like they charge thousands of dollars. Oh, they do.
Besides, you just have to drag grandma down the stairs not up. Oh wait, you gave her a room in the basement? Bummer. ;)
Fun fact I learned yesterday: if you call the paramedics for a completely non-COVID reason, they will stand on your porch arguing for 5 minutes that you should carry the patient downstairs to them so that they don't have to enter your home. I get that they have a hard job right now, but Jesus fucking Christ.
I hope you learned this second-hand...:(
First hand, unfortunately, but everyone's fine now. There's a bunch of stuff that led up to it, but long story short, Minifob had a sudden crash in blood pressure that caused him to pass out in my arms and stop breathing for a short bit. I got him to the floor and breathing again, albeit erratically, within 15-20 seconds or so. Utterly terrifying, and Mr. Clod and I stayed in his room all night in shifts, but the combination of causes was very identifiable, so there's no concern it will happen again. The paramedics did eventually come upstairs once they understood that the "breathing problems" had nothing to do with COVID and he had in fact tested negative for it just a week ago.
Wow. Rough experience. Sorry Clod.
Asshole tourists with no masks are coming back out to the coast. My town had to pass it's own ordinance requiring masks, so the shopkeepers didn't have to be the "bad guy" in asking people to wear a mask. Locals are now engaged in a "debate" about whether masks are a good idea-- a fact that NO SCIENTIFIC EXPERT disputes. But thanks to oRaNgE dAdDy, a public health crisis is now a ƒucking political issue.
I want to be clear that I mean this in the most offensive way possible-- if you vote Republican and contribute to the current climate of anti-intellectual zombies that are actively TRYING TO SPREAD a deadly virus by avoiding a simple, easy solution, please kill yourself so I can piss on your grave.
Oh, and the local fascists have doxxed my address and made death threats against me online. Because I said they shouldn't threaten to shoot protestors. Because they believed that aNTiFa iS bUsSiNg iN pRoTeStOrS tO sMaLL tOwNs.
Can't the locals just wear diving masks and scuba tanks or something? That way they'll still get those tourist dollars.
and dump the bodies in the ocean.
Utterly terrifying...
Shit, I would imagine so!
Glad he's doing better.
Apparently EMS don't have to do their jobs if it's Covid? The only paramedic in my family is kinda typical for around here, they aren't afraid of the "flu" and are weirdly offended by masks. As PA begins growing cases again, I'm wondering when NYS puts PA on the quarantine list and I end up unemployed.
[SIZE="3"]Home-made face masks likely need at least 2 layers to curb COVID-19 spread[/SIZE]
Home-made cloth face masks likely need a minimum of two layers, and preferably three, to prevent the dispersal of viral droplets from the nose and mouth that are associated with the spread of COVID-19, indicates a video case study published online in the journal Thorax. ...
... A team of Australian researchers therefore compared the effectiveness of single and double-layer cloth face coverings (175 g/m² cotton fabric, with a thread count of 170/ inch) with a 3-ply surgical face mask (Bao Thach) at reducing droplet spread. ...
... The researchers used a tailored LED lighting system and a high-speed camera to film the dispersal of airborne droplets produced by a healthy person with no respiratory infection, during speaking, coughing, and sneezing while wearing each type of mask.
The video recording showed that the 3-ply surgical face mask was the most effective at reducing airborne droplet dispersal, although even a single layer cloth face covering reduced the droplet spread from speaking.
But a double layer covering was better than a single layer in reducing the droplet spread from coughing and sneezing, the recording showed. ...
... based on their observations, a home made cloth mask with at least two layers is preferable to a single layer mask, they say, adding: "Guidelines on home-made cloth masks should stipulate multiple layers." ...
If Your Mask Doesn't Have Two of These, It's Not Working, Study Says
In the absence of medical grade personal protective equipment (PPE), many of us have turned to homemade cloth masks to help stop the spread of coronavirus. But increasingly, research has shown that not all masks are created equal, and some are downright ineffective. A new video case study produced by Australian researchers shows that in order for a homemade cloth mask to stop viral transmission, it needs to have at least two layers of fabric. In effect, if your mask has just one layer of fabric, you can safely bet that it simply doesn't work. ...
[SIZE="3"]Watch Bill Nye Test Which Face Masks Work the Best[/SIZE]
[SIZE="1"]THE SCIENCE GUY IS HERE TO, ONCE AGAIN, EXPLAIN A CONCEPT WITH AN EXPERIMENT YOU CAN DO AT HOME.[/SIZE]
... Next, Nye uses a homemade, double-layer cotton face mask with a pipe cleaner insert that allows it to fit snugly over the bridge of the nose. Blowing as hard as he can, just inches from the flame, the scientist is unable to blow it out. ...
My buddies Mom, a right wing nut herself, got into an altercation with a truck load of mask-resistors at an Ice Cream shop. I guess it's big news on FB because these guys are fighting oppression. Strange times.
The fit and breathability of the mask are just as important as the filtration. Possibly more important.
If the fabric weave of the mask is too tight, with a really high thread count, or too many layers, it just acts as a diverter to funnel your breath out the sides and around your nose. Nothing gets filtered.
... because these guys are fighting oppression. Strange times.
Nothing new. Nazis in 1930 Germany were also fighting this same oppression.
Did they have strawmen in the 1930s?
The fit and breathability of the mask are just as important as the filtration. Possibly more important.
If the fabric weave of the mask is too tight, with a really high thread count, or too many layers, it just acts as a diverter to funnel your breath out the sides and around your nose. Nothing gets filtered.
From the first article I linked:
... The single layer covering was made from a folded piece of cotton T shirt and hair ties; the double layer covering was made using the sew method, as set out by CDC: ...
Seems like they were looking at expendable clothing as a common denominator.
... This is just one case, added to which several other factors contribute to the effectiveness of cloth face masks, note the researchers. These include the type of material used, design and fit, as well as the frequency of washing. ...
You left out frequency of washing.
Vietnam has had another outbreak. They had their first case the same week as us. We are kicking their ass 153,769 to 0. So much winning.
Are you sick of winning yet?
WELLINGTON, New Zealand — New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says that authorities have found four cases of the coronavirus in one Auckland household from an unknown source, the first cases of local transmission in the country in 102 days.
Ardern said Auckland, the nation’s largest city, will be moved to Alert Level 3 from midday Wednesday, meaning that people will be asked to stay at home and bars and many other businesses will be closed.
She said the rest of the country will be raised to Alert Level 2.
https://apnews.com/30fcdd7452850cf28dfe41af9ce76c61 The US is #1 in case fatality rate
Three possible conclusions:
1) lower death rate shows the US health care system is comparatively good
2) higher case rate shows the US testing regime is comparatively good
3) combination
Your move, haters
Let's see "hate." What can I hate here...
I hate your title, because it made me think we had the highest rates if we were number one. It would be better if the title said that the US was "best."
"Hate" is way too strong though.
This is good news, not that it's a competition.
It would be nice if other non-European countries besides the US and Canada were included.
How is Asia doing? How about famous New Zealand?
2) Higher case rate only shows good testing, comparatively, if the infection rate is equal. When there is a political party actively campaigning against preventing infection, that isn't an assumption that can be relied upon.
"The U.S. is #1 among these specific countries we chose to include in the chart."
As a non-hater myself, though, I actually think that 2 years from now, the cross-country death rate comparisons will be a washout: severely controlled countries like New Zealand are only delaying the inevitable, IMHO, and the only real factor affecting an area's death rate will be whether they kept the speed of the caseload under their medical system's limit, to avoid otherwise preventable deaths. But that's because I also don't think we'll ever get an effective vaccine, hopeful press releases notwithstanding. This thing won't be done until we get herd immunity the old-fashioned way, just like every human population for millenia has done when a pandemic rips through.
Your move, haters
Why inappropriate use of the word 'hate'? Because Trump promotes it daily.
OK, now we're getting somewhere. Mexico says the damage done by COVID-19 isn't due to government's lack of preparedness or action... it's Coca-Cola's fault!
[SIZE="3"]Coca-Cola or 'bottled poison'? Mexico finds a COVID-19 villain in big soda[/SIZE]
MEXICO CITY — While touring southern Chiapas state last month, Mexico’s coronavirus czar took aim at a local vice he considers culpable for the country’s ongoing pandemic problems: rampant Coca-Cola consumption.
Health undersecretary Hugo López-Gatell connected soda consumption with COVID-19 deaths, blaming sugar for causing comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension – maladies common in Mexico, where almost three-quarters of the population is overweight, according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. ...
... As COVID-19 cases mount in Mexico and the death toll soars – Mexico only trails Brazil and the United States in total pandemic fatalities – López-Gatell and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador have increasingly pinned Mexico’s pandemic problems on its poor nutrition habits — soda consumption chief among them.
Mexicans drink more soda per-capita than any other country – an estimated 163 liters per year. And bottlers, such as Coca-Cola, deliver its products to the remote corners of the country – where potable water is scant and soda is often sold for less than water.
Both López-Gatell and López Obrador equivocate on the effectiveness of wearing face masks. But they’ve expressed fewer doubts on the negative impact of junk food and soda consumption and its connection to COVID-19 fatalities. ...
... The attacks on big soda and admonishments to eat better come as López-Gatell comes under criticism for his handling of the pandemic – especially a policy of not testing widely and not conducting contact tracing – as the death toll closes in 60,000 fatalities.
And bottlers, such as Coca-Cola, deliver its products to the remote corners of the country – where potable water is scant and soda is often sold for less than water.
Good thing the drought situation is only going to get better in the coming years..
Sounds like Coke is serving people better than the government. :eyebrow:
Oh, and this won't happen if they come up with a vaccine... for this or anything.
This is
part of why we're never getting an effective vaccine for this thing.
Confirmed case of true reinfection, beyond any doubt because it was two different strains. Antibodies for the first infection clearly didn't work to combat the second infection, because his two bouts of illness were within a month of each other, when post-infection antibodies should be highest. (Which is to say, a hypothetical vaccine that worked for the first strain wouldn't have worked for the second, and if you can get as many new strains as they're seeing in just 9 months of spread in the U.S., you'll never stay ahead of it.)
The first infection was mild, the second put him in the hospital. He was 25 years old, in good health, no autoimmune or pre-existing conditions.
Three of the vaccines in the pipeline require storage at 4 degrees below zero F, to 96 degrees below zero F.
The article didn't say how long they would be viable warmed up to inject.
Seems to be a number of articles arguing the powers that be aren't puting enough emphasis on aerosols.
I was on a family zoom call last night, and my sister, who is a teacher at MIT had a little interesting information. I wish I remembered the exact numbers she told me. Take every number I relay here with a grain of salt.
She said that MIT is currently repeatedly testing all staff and students on a two week cycle, and that the entire MIT community is on a fairly strict quarantine regiment, so case number are very low. Nothing surprising in any of that.
Was is noteworthy, is that MIT's testing accounts for something like a quarter of all testing in Massachusetts, because they are doing something like 60,000 tests a week. This has the effect of artificially making Massachusetts look like it is a much healthier state than it actually is.
60k per week actually shows up on the testing volume section of the MA page here (in grey at the bottom of the positive tests section, the numbers rise in mid August)
https://rt.live/us/MAI am in the aerosol/air filtration camp myself. If anybody had caught it because some business didn't clorox down a doorknob or an elevator button or a credit card kiosk we would be seeing it. Meanwhile there's nothing to explain some of the superspreader events like that choir rehearsal except air transmission. I've started developing a list of professors who are researching this stuff and following their cue.
And that level of testing at MIT is what EVERYBODY ought to be getting. If we could make that universal we could more or less be open. The problem (OK, one problem) is that absent testing nobody knows if they're carrying it. I personally donated blood 10 days ago and, courtesy of the Red Cross, learned that my blood sample came back negative for the antibody test. But have I picked it up in the last 10 days? Who knows?
60k per week actually shows up on the testing volume section of the MA page here (in grey at the bottom of the positive tests section, the numbers rise in mid August)
https://rt.live/us/MA
My numbers as relayed by her are fairly unreliable, but the chart you link shows an almost doubling of daily testing in Mass starting in mid August. I wonder if that's all the colleges, not just MIT?
Out of the 21 employees of mine that were out, I have 3 back and 2 that will unfortunately not be back.
We seem to be over-represented in this plague.
Friend of ours has a kid at a smallish, relatively rural college--I'm not sure what their testing regimen looks like, but one interesting thing they're doing is every student has been issued a Bluetooth thermometer paired to a custom app with a login on their phone. They have to take their own temperature every morning, and if they're over 99.5 or whatever their door card won't let them into any campus buildings.
Friend of ours has a kid at a smallish, relatively rural college--I'm not sure what their testing regimen looks like, but one interesting thing they're doing is every student has been issued a Bluetooth thermometer paired to a custom app with a login on their phone. They have to take their own temperature every morning, and if they're over 99.5 or whatever their door card won't let them into any campus buildings.
so they won't be taking their temps with a regular thermometer beforehand and using a cup of water or getting a friend to do their official one if they're over?
They certainly could, but at that point you're letting at least one person in on the fact that you're sick, and I suppose eventually someone will narc on you.
i spent the summer subletting a place right across the street from the admissions building at the 10,000 student college here in town, right on basically frat row. I watched big crowds of maskless students walking back and forth to parties constantly. classes started for the semester this week and i'm real worried now that everybody is back in town.
so they won't be taking their temps with a regular thermometer beforehand and using a cup of water or getting a friend to do their official one if they're over?
The point is to devise a system that is effective if it's used. There will never be a system that can't be abused.
NY locked down SUNY Oneonta this week when testing revealed a spike. I believe a couple kids were expelled for a big off campus party.
I see they're doing wastewater testing at some colleges, it seems pretty reliable so far and tells them which dorm is in trouble.
My results came to my phone Tuesday afternoon for a Monday afternoon test, that's damn good. Little Griff says the lines are horrific for the quick turnaround tests in MA.
More than 250 cases at Oneonta...
Hey nineteen
(no we got nothing in common) We can't dance together
(no we can't talk at all)
Please leave me alone when you slide on down
17 year old me would have been a real problem for any campus.
In Germany 200 people mostly in their 20s held a secret rave in a big cave. Something like 60 hospitalized and 12 dead.
Coronavirus? Nope, carbon dioxide from generators for the sound and lights.
That's what happens to rebels.
rt.live numbers say the rates of infection are now increasing in 30 states. It's the midatlantic's turn, numbers up for WV, PA, MD, NJ. Not hugely up, like the curve in April, just a tick. But the rate is more driven by the fact that there are fewer tests, than more positive results, so who knows?
Uptics from colleges are expected.
Oh, up above I should have said carbon monoxide not dioxide. DUH :o
Centre County now a PA hotspot due to Penn State
Also, York County, that one seems to be from a prison
The guy from Pittston who hunts here was up over the weekend, he works on a cell block of old-timers. So far so good, let's hope it stays out of there.
My cousin's son, who is the same age as my son and traveled last summer with him and my sister on a whirlwind expedition through Ecuador, has been sent home from SUNY Oneonta. He's a freshman.
The campus closed amid covid concerns, and all students have been sent home.
He's been home for four days, and his test results just came back positive for covid. He hasn't got a single symptom. He feels just fine.
The family started off keeping distance from each other when he got back, but got more and more relaxed as the days went on. I imagine they are regretting that now. So now the entire household has to quarantine and wear masks around each other. Just waiting for symptoms to appear. Some may get it, some may not.
The grandmother, who lives across town, just got out of rehab after back surgery, and was going to be cared for by my cousin. She can't do that now that she has been exposed. Another relative is getting that job now.
I think it's smart of colleges to suspend in person classes when covid heats up on the campuses, but maybe sending the kids home to their families isn't such a great idea. At least not without strict controls.
It seems like on campus quarantine would make sense most places but the “city” of Oneonta probably lacks the beds if kids actually become ill.
The colleges here mostly have quarantine dorms. There are three big college hotspots in Michigan. Not U of M ...yet..... they start classes later :/
And it turns out my information was bad. My cousin’s son has basically ALL the symptoms. My cousin must have told my mom that the boy had no symptoms 4 days ago when he came home.
the local student paper just published a
scathing opinion piece headlined
UVM is destined to close over COVID-19. this section is particularly interesting:
In a July 2 email to all students, Provost Patricia Prelock said that all on-campus students would be required to participate in coronavirus testing twice a week for the entire fall semester.
Since then, UVM has scaled back that testing policy. According to UVM’s reopening website, the university will test students once a week for three weeks, until Sept. 18. The website does not specify why the policy was changed, or how often or whether students will be tested after that point.
I wondered at first why UVM chose to only test students until a specific date.
Then I remembered that Sept. 18 just so happens to be the last date on which students can withdraw from classes, meaning the last date on which students can leave the university for the semester without paying full tuition.
My son deferred enrollment for freshmen year there. He's off in the woods of NM instead.
It's really interesting to hear the stories of all his classmates, and who has taken a gap year, who has been exposed and is in quarantine, who has tested positive, and who is just off at college doing their best.
Dickinson, where my daughter is a senior, made the call earlier than most that they would be fully remote. So she is downstairs.
I'm so grateful that both my kids are in pretty safe environments while this gets sorted out.
My younger daughter is trying to work and complete her Masters, her practicum is getting complicated.
A German company has done a study using phone data among other things and came to the conclusion Sturgis caused
250,000 new Covid-19 cases. Not all of them in the 500,000 attendees, but the people they came in contact with traveling, plus the communities they went home to.
I saw that the other day and dismissed it. The numbers didn't seem to match reality at first glance.
[SIZE="3"]UK's Johnson to levy 10,000 pound fine on COVID-19 rule-breakers[/SIZE]
LONDON (Reuters) - People in England who break new rules requiring them to self-isolate if they have been in contact with someone infected with COVID-19 will face a fine of up to 10,000 pounds ($12,914), Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Saturday.
The rules will apply from Sept. 28 to anyone in England who tests positive for the virus or is notified by public health workers that they have been in contact with someone infectious.
"People who choose to ignore the rules will face significant fines," Johnson said in a statement.
Fines will start at 1,000 pounds for a first offence, rising to 10,000 pounds for repeat offenders or cases where employers threaten to sack staff who self-isolate rather than go to work.
Some low-income workers who suffer a loss of earnings will receive a 500 pound support payment, on top of other benefits such as sick pay to which they may be entitled....
My younger daughter is trying to work and complete her Masters, her practicum is getting complicated.
Pologirl is in a similar position. They replaced it with extra theory courses, but she didn't really have room for that. I'm concerned she's nearing breaking point. And they've increased the amount and intensity of teaching work they require from them in return for their stipend -which they're suggesting reducing.....
A bit of context to the possible £10,000 fine as mentioned in Sexobon's post above:
Holidaymaker who ignored 14-day quarantine rule partly responsible for Bolton surge, says council leader
A holidaymaker who failed to self-isolate after returning to Bolton was partly responsible for the area’s “extreme spike” in coronavirus cases, the council leader has said.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Saturday, Bolton Council leader, David Greenhalgh, said the Greater Manchester borough’s high rate had been linked back to pubs in the town and a “cohort of people” who refused to follow guidance.
The Conservative councillor said: “We had somebody who did not adhere to quarantine, did not stay the 14 days, literally went on a pub crawl with a number of mates.
“From that incident which took place over a weekend – (they) visited a number of premises – led to a large number of individual transmissions from that one person which you can imagine then is like holding back the tide because he then became symptomatic two days after they had all gone on this pub crawl.
“He was positive-tested the following day.
“That is four or five days where all the people he was in contact with have been going about their normal day-to-day business.”
Earlier this month, a 23-year-old man from Bolton was fined £1,000 for failing to self-isolate after returning from a holiday in Ibiza on August 20.
Greater Manchester Police said he had left his home multiple times and even hosted a house party.
It is not known whether the individual mentioned by Mr Greenhalgh was fined for breaching regulations.
Leaders in Bolton had been arguing for restrictions, placed on all of Greater Manchester, to be lifted at the end of August before the area saw a spike which led to it having the highest rates of the virus in the country.
It is now subject to tougher measures than other parts of Greater Manchester and the rest of England, with hospitality venues only allowed to operate as takeaways and ordered to shut by 10pm.
In early September, Health Secretary Matt Hancock blamed a surge in cases among young 'people in their 20s and 30s' socialising.
Mr Hancock said contact tracing had pinpointed outbreaks to several pubs in Bolton.
Mayor Andy Burnham has also previously said he was told someone coming back from holiday and going out drinking 'is linked to a large part of the problem'.
The latest figures on coronavirus show that Bolton still has the highest rate in the country and remains at 189.9 per 100,000 people.
Manchester Evening NewsI attended a super-spreader for my deceased aunt this week, only a few Freedumb protestors in attendance, folks were mostly on their best behavior.
J's daughter tested positive yesterday and we were exposed to her on Saturday. 4 days later no symptoms, but...
Dead man posting
Vitamin D and fresh air. Be safe brother.
I was in California, 3 airports, two planes, and a cab last Friday.
OK so far.
My wife has been teaching/babysitting the next door neighbor pre-schooler. She wears a mask when she goes over there, and washes her hands a lot and doesn't touch her face. Washes her hands when she gets home too.
The pre-schooler started having cold symptoms two days ago, and so the parents and my wife have been attempting to get her to wear a mask as well, with limited success. So this morning, my wife mentions that she is starting to have the sniffles herself. The cold has breached the inner walls of the glatt household.
These probably aren't covid symptoms, but it's a good example of how covid is gonna get you, even if you are careful, if you are around other people.
Where are those 300 million N95 masks Trump promised? Those would work better.
Trump in ‘quarantine process’ after top aide gets COVID-19
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Thursday that he and first lady Melania Trump are beginning a “quarantine process” as they await coronavirus test results after a top aide he spent substantial time with this week tested positive for COVID-19.
Trump’s comments came after he confirmed that Hope Hicks, one his closest aides, had tested positive for the virus Thursday. Hicks began feeling mild symptoms during the plane ride home from a rally in Minnesota Wednesday evening, according to an administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose private information. She was quarantined away from others on the plane and her diagnosis was confirmed Thursday, the person said.
[...]
It can take days for an infection to be detectable by a test, and it was unclear what Trump’s quarantine entailed. Minutes before his tweet, the White House distributed a schedule for Friday that showed he planned to go forward with a fundraiser at his Washington, D.C., hotel and a political rally in Sanford, Florida.
I want to think that the positive test he tweeted isn't a stunt... but I'm struggling.....
I want to believe those maskless fuckers were kept away from Biden.
It's a big thing, to fake a test result. So I think it's likely to be true that he is positive.
But Trump has a history of lies, and his previous regular checkup reports from the White House doctor clearly had the "sharpie" treatment from Trump, just like the hurricane maps.
So who knows?
Interesting times.
It could be cover for whatever drug needs to get cleared out of his system from the other night. Maybe that was Trump clean but it didn't look like human clean.
But... but... he was taking hydroxychloroquine!
Perhaps he expects a note from a doctor saying he has lung spurs will save him from the trauma of another tour in the debate theater.
idk, they just life-flighted him to a hospital that's ten minutes away
More importantly, how's Ivanka doing? I'm available to do rescue breathing if she's having any difficultly.
idk, they just life-flighted him to a hospital that's ten minutes away
Will they tear gas anyone in the hospital corridors? I hope he catches MRSA. How will anyone tell if he's lost his sense of taste?
what a bunch of immense fucking assholes you all are
choking to death on his own fluids is a better death than that man deserves. but if he dies that's going to be even more of a destabilizing, horrible mess than the current horrible mess thats happening. so i'm torn.
I want them all out via the ballot. I don't like them but despite their constant minimizing this is a terrible way to go.
More importantly, how's Ivanka doing? I'm available to do rescue breathing if she's having any difficultly.
what a bunch of immense fucking assholes you all are
I said rescue breathing, not buttfuck her in the mouth.
just accept it and move on
just accept it and move on
nah, I don't just accept it.
I don't wish him ill, he's already ill. I want him to recover and face justice for his crimes.
Another example of the fact that the coronavirus D.N.G.A.F.
what a bunch of immense fucking assholes you all are
You know, I used not to wish harm on anyone, but the malicious damage this "man" has done to other humans for his own gain apparently changed that. Takes an asshole to make an asshole? [COLOR="LightBlue"]Oh wait, wrong hole.....[/COLOR]
Death is too good for that one.
You know, I used not to wish harm on anyone, but
He will be gone, someday; but what will you have become?
right on time, the excellent Chloe Valdary
I got a call from a client yesterday. The agency she is working through for visitation just got shutdown due to positive staff tests. Folks were getting complacent around here...
J's test came back negative. Mine is still pending
I hope he catches MRSA.
Been there, done that. I wouldn't recommend it.:headshake
I didn't get the shirt, but, I got a weird little gown get-up, and a pretty nifty drinky-cup...
If the United States had a death toll from COVD-19 at the same rate as the rest of the world we would have about 50,000 deaths, 5% of the total.
Instead we have 200,000, 20% of the total.
There is one main reason that the extra 150,000 Americans have died this year and it is Donald Trump and his ignorance, arrogance, selfishness, greed and dishonesty.
I am afraid that given that fact, I cannot find it in my heart or mind to give a damn if he dies of the disease he has all but caused.
He does not deserve our hopes and prayers or our forgiveness.
He has pillaged and vandalized this country and made the world worse for all its people except for an extremely few.
He and his vile enablers will lie their way through his illness in the coming days and use it to benefit their campaign.
It is foolish to expect any decency from them.
He will be gone, someday; but what will you have become?
dead from covid?
grandmother to and sole carer of a severely disabled child? one whose parents can't afford any other options because they are buried under student debt? Who had no choice but to bring that unfortunate child into the world?
mother of a dead soldier drafted to fight a war with China he started even though he didn't have the guts to be drafted himself?
a member of a society when people with brown skin live in fear and aren't treated equally in the workplace, in stores, at the doctor's office, in the hospital, by banks and insurance companies, in the schools? One where it's ok to abuse and degrade women?
I don't (think I) wish him dead. But whatever it takes to prevent him "serving" a second term is gonna be something I'll certainly consider being OK with. And I won't be mourning if he really does have it and it kills him. karma is a bitch.
Either he lied about having it for political gain or he lied about the precautions taken at the WH (for political gain).
The Donald knows how much everyone all over the world loves him so he's hanging in there for youse guys. It's a miracle!
[YOUTUBE]NWiffY2Xtqw[/YOUTUBE]
He won't die of this. In that past year since it first appeared in September of 2019 the medical researchers have made great strides in understanding how this virus behaves in the body. At first they said it screwed the lungs so the went with vents, but from tests and autopsies they're finding how it attacks the heart and blood as well as doing brain damage in some people.
Trump doesn't have to worry about brain damage, and like the Grinch his heart is tiny. So if they can stop the lung damage he'll be tweeting it's no worse than the flu in no time.
Do you remember the
PharmaFist from Canada?
He's been posting about various facets of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Most are posted in French but Chrome automatically translates for me.
... So if they can stop the lung damage he'll be tweeting it's no worse than the flu in no time.
They'll make a movie about his ordeal. It'll be titled: One Flu Over the Cuckoo's Nest.
Is the global total death count... Without respect to cause.... Abnormally high this year? I've tried to find raw numbers, but I just see crude death rate and such. 8.3 deaths per thousand, etc.
I want to see a chart with how many people on earth died each month for the last 48 months or so. Is there a discernable spike since the Wuhan got loose?
Hi Dude and all, on this Covid, I have and will continue to keep my Immune System strong and healthy. The US and world are in sad places..
Due to other issues I have not had to wear a mask as I stay around my apt bldg and love the fresh air I breath when I out outside and MOST of my friends don't wear one when they visit me.
Is the global total death count... Without respect to cause.... Abnormally high this year? I've tried to find raw numbers, but I just see crude death rate and such. 8.3 deaths per thousand, etc.
I want to see a chart with how many people on earth died each month for the last 48 months or so. Is there a discernable spike since the Wuhan got loose?
This article has a partial view of the expected vs. actual deaths charts you're looking for--not for all causes in total, but looking individually at heart attacks, diabetes, Alzheimer's, and stroke in key states between March and May of this year. Some of the increase may be directly related to a stealth COVID infection, while some may also be regular health incidents that would have been survivable in a normal year, but people were afraid to go to the hospital.
Yah there's that too. When this first started, and they shut the world down, I thought, the collateral damage would be worse than the disease. I was thinking economically and psychologically, but people being afraid or unable to get treatment must be considered as well.
The alienation might still come out to be the worst part of it at the end though. The economy will recover. We'll 'beat' the virus.... But the fear of others and separateness may take longer to heal. The normalizing pressure. We see another human as a threat now. We have divergent opinions about the severity of the disease and divide further along lines that didn't exist before. He should wear a mask, she should calm down, etc. New words and phrases like anti-masker and social distance have entered the lexicon.
These uncertain times.
It's all about division. The speed at which news travels is a major factor. Things change quickly and become normal easily.
Look what happened to the name Karen in the last year.
That's why I want a 100 mile up look at things. It's the only way to get an objective view
Look what happened to the name Karen in the last year.
My wife is Karen, and it's actually pretty hard on her.
Imagine if your name was used commonly as a pejorative. Not you, Jim, just "you" in general. It's really fucked up. She didn't do anything to deserve it. And none of those women are even named Karen.
That sucks. The good news is that I think the same rapidfire culture hose that made it get so widespread so fast will also ensure that it dies out surprisingly quickly as well. I already see it way less than I did a few months ago. In another year or two it will be a completely outdated reference.
My wife is Karen, and it's actually pretty hard on her.
Imagine if your name was used commonly as a pejorative. Not you, Jim, just "you" in general. It's really fucked up. She didn't do anything to deserve it. And none of those women are even named Karen.
Hey, I named a kid Amazon. That ain't ever going away......
tg our last name isn't Prime.....
Hi Dude and all, on this Covid, I have and will continue to keep my Immune System strong and healthy. The US and world are in sad places..
Due to other issues I have not had to wear a mask as I stay around my apt bldg and love the fresh air I breath when I out outside and MOST of my friends don't wear one when they visit me.
That's not a good idea. Scientists all over the world have been working on every aspect of the virus and leaned an awful lot it a year since it first appeared. One discovery is the hand washing and lifespan of the virus on different surface types is far less important than the first thought, although it's still a good idea even without the virus threat.
But probably the most important thing is aerosol transmission, which was dismissed in the beginning, seems to be a major vector. Not the big and little droplets with the 6 ft spacing requirement, but the tiny virus carrying moisture that travels around the room on air currents both natural and HVAC created. They finally verified this is a major problem.
tg our last name isn't Prime.....
:lol:
Not the big and little droplets with the 6 ft spacing requirement, but the tiny virus carrying moisture that travels around the room on air currents both natural and HVAC created. They finally verified this is a major problem.
Over the weekend, I went camping and had to take my mask off in the bathroom when I brushed my teeth. I was the only one in the bathroom, but I still felt super vulnerable, because there was no ventilation in there. There could have been a covid dude that used the bathroom an hour before me and left, and then I went in and got infected.
Anyway, I kind of held my breath and breathed shallow breaths when I couldn't hold it any longer, and got out as fast as I could. The following night, I brushed my teeth in the campsite.
And when I used the bathroom for real, I wore a mask.
Statistically, the infection rate is something like half a percent or one percent, so odds are I will be fine from that one slip up, but you can't be sure.
It's little screw ups like that, where you let your guard down for a moment, that it's going to get you. Which would be a real shame after all I've gone through to get to this point.
I have not had a mask on myself and believe they do more harm than any good.....
Is it really something that required "belief."
The only drawback I ever heard from masks that seemed legitimate was that if you use something that is not intended to be a mask as a mask, then you run the risk of breathing in loose fibers given off by that thing.
Actual masks designed to be masks are not a concern.
Is it really something that required "belief."
The only drawback I ever heard from masks that seemed legitimate was that if you use something that is not intended to be a mask as a mask, then you run the risk of breathing in loose fibers given off by that thing.
Actual masks designed to be masks are not a concern.
Pretty sure you're not gonna get "
cotton lung" from loose mask fibers unless you're the canary in the
Burlington Mill
That said, it seems trollish to go on about how you proudly don't wear a mask because you think they do more harm than good. But what do I know? I'm not a Russian bot.
I have not had a mask on myself and believe they do more harm than any good.....
Wear a mask and go ƒuck yoruself, Troll scum.
Wear a mask and go ƒuck yoruself, Troll scum.
Take your penis out of your mouth. Act like an adult for once. Not a Trump disciple.
At least 12,000 mink dead as coronavirus spreads among fur farms in Utah and Wisconsin
Oh thanks for that great info, I'll run out to buy a mink for my trips to my beach.....
The Fall spike appears to be underway. I'm working from home for two weeks due to the local spike. My client's sister lives in Paris which is a damn mess and the BBC is talking about the British spike.
Sad story
I told my family: "Come on. Enough already. Let's get together and enjoy life for once."
...
I have no idea which one of us brought the virus into the house, but all six of us left with it. It kept spreading from there.
So little sympathy, I'm sorry.
Covid-19: 1
Critical thinking skills: 0
I have sympathy. There is so much misinformation being spread about this thing and so much mistrust of official sources that I can absolutely see how someone could reach that conclusion. It isnt like they had a massive gathering. Just a few family members - so convinced were they the worst was over.
It's deeply sad. Many, many people, both those who believe the seriousness of Covid and those who don't have taken silly chances here and there - usually pretty small scale and most of them won't have had an experience as bad as that guy and his family
This is the cost of misinformation being spread and/or endorsed by people in government and the media that supports them, alongside the systematic dismantling of whatever trust used to exist for most of the major news outlets
I have sympathy. There is so much misinformation being spread about this thing and so much mistrust of official sources that I can absolutely see how someone could reach that conclusion. It isnt like they had a massive gathering. Just a few family members - so convinced were they the worst was over.
It's deeply sad. Many, many people, both those who believe the seriousness of Covid and those who don't have taken silly chances here and there - usually pretty small scale and most of them won't have had an experience as bad as that guy and his family
This is the cost of misinformation being spread and/or endorsed by people in government and the media that supports them, alongside the systematic dismantling of whatever trust used to exist for most of the major news outlets
I understand what you are saying but despite distrust of media, government, and the commies in the bushes, one can err on the side of caution when in doubt. One can research past pandemics, and one can use reason and logic to try to find a closer approximation of the truth vis a vis this pandemic. Chances are that countries are not inflating their death rates. I see this more of a "I went to google University so I know more than anybody else"
Jfc
Opening para:
The Wuhan coronavirus — engineered by the Chinese military in a bioweapons lab and released upon humanity — has wreaked havoc all across the globe, but that doesn’t mean we need to let it continue to devastate our economies and freedoms.
boopin floof snooter chonk boi
boopin floof snooter chonk boi
:rotflol:
As a non pupper person, even I gotta admit Griff's post was spot on.
A graphic for folks that don't get it.
He will be gone, someday; but what will you have become?
You could have led with that rather than jump to calling people assholes if you want to take your own advice.
A friend wanted me to post this on this thread
Last night on Coast to Coast Jay W Richards, PhD spoke for 2 hrs on how unnecessary the lockdowns have been....what SHOULD have been done is isolate the aged, weak immune system people, chronic health people etc...but NOT the country and the world....so much damage has been done...SO MUCH.
Calif is a disaster....so many lost their livelihoods....and apts and and and....
In this great Democratic state ummmm....
What does Jay W Richards have his PhD in, the history of Bolivian postage stamps? Covid has been killing perfectly healthy young people as well as the old and infirm.
What an idiot.
Expertise in denying evolution.
Jay W. Richards PhD
So he is a business school graduate. That explains those urban myths and beliefs that only do harm to the economy.
From elsewhere:
Richards is saying what MANY others I subscribe to are saying, shutting down the whole country was wrong wrong wrong....
And your fearless leader has banned me from posting ... so I send you this from whatever it's worth.
And on the health issue, I may or may not send a note-- I really don't need to defend my actions for the last 30 yrs and my good health.
Closed minds abound on this forum.
When did Trump censor you?
Even people who smoke cigarettes for 30 years still have good health. That proves smoking cigarettes increases health - using your reasoning?
Richards is preaching logic also used by a Playboy centerfold with big tits to prove vaccines create autism. She had big tits. That proved she must be right?
An honest person would have, for example, explained why facts contradict those lies. Why did an analysis of health food products on shelves reveal that 90% did not even contain what was on the label?
Why would anyone ignore facts (not even reply here) to keep posting emotionally inspired beliefs? Cherry picking. Another fact that explains brainwashing. Ignore all facts that contradict what the Central Committee order one to believe. Propaganda works when an adult thinks like a child. When an adult does not post facts that say why. And repeatedly ignore facts that expose Trump style lies.
We all learned how to think like an adult even in elementary school science. One saw mosquito larvae in standing water. That observation proved that standing water creates life. Any conclusion from an observation (without any underlying facts) is classic junk science. Same reasoning also proved that Saddam had WMDs. Resulting in the massacre of 5,000 American soldiers for no purpose.
Last winter resulted in two extremely cold days. Somehow that proves that global warming does not exist?
I ran 99 stop signs. And never killed anyone. That proves everyone can safely run stop signs?
You consumed crushed up flower pedals in pills in a bottle labeled Vit D. That proves Vit D protects from Covid-19?
Examples of logic that makes one wonder how bad your nutrition really is. Apparently a logical brain of an adult has been subverted by the reptilian brain - where children makes decisions from their emotions.
How many more examples of junk science need be posted? When will we learn why "90% of contents on health food store shelves" need not contain what was listed on its label? Still waiting for you to address that damning fact.
Apparently those shelves contain much Kool-Aid. Ignored again is what was taught in elementary school science.
An adult with sufficient nutrition would have explained that damning fact long ago when posted. Brainwashed (ie victims of poor nutrition) will "cherry pick" to protect an emotional belief.
Do you know what "cherry picking" is? Apparently not. So that paragraph was also ignored. Why are facts from a PBS science show "Hacking the Mind" also ignored? It demonstrates how easily one can be brainwashed. One might learn how easily one can be manipulated by health food garbage. Apparently that is emotionally too hurtful to comprehend? And yes, some of those health food tablets were only crushed flower pedals.
Damning and ignored facts. Please address them.
tw,
I asked her not to return, there is no longer a need to address her
I asked her not to return, there is no longer a need to address her
Why is open discussion undesirable?
Those posts accurately demonstrate how easily many can be brainwashed. A lesson that is logical and should not make anyone emotional (angry).
Those posts demonstrate a point I constantly make. Demonstrates a difference between an 'adult thinking like an adult' verses an 'adult who still thinks emotionally like a child'.
Those posts clearly demonstrate how one becomes brainwashed. And even (must) deny it. A lesson that others still do not understand. And then end up planting seeds of anarchy by becoming angry.
Was jaminhealth banned for simply becoming a poster child for how some people are easily brainwashed? If those posts made anyone emotional (angry), then those posts can remain on their ignore list.
Those posts should never make an adult, who is an adult, angry. Those posts did not attack any person. But even more necessary, demonstrate even how Russian hackers so easily manipulate many if not most Americans.
And demonstrate a difference between honest reasoning and junk science.
Urbane Guerrilla openly disparages people. jaminhealth did not. Why a double standard?
She wasn't banned, learn to read
She wasn't banned, learn to read
Reading can lead to comprehension; it's a slippery slope.
[YOUTUBE]3yDfGPJt8N4[/YOUTUBE]
She wasn't banned, learn to read
Then why are we having regular discussions after being banned? Or are there many different bans? Rather than being nasty, please discuss in an adult manner.
I was not banned, but told I cannot post ...
I do not understand your question
I do not understand your question
Why is it that someone, who is banned, is still posting in the Cellar? I just quoted jaminhealth's reply that was after that ban.
Meanwhile, answer the relevant question. Why ban someone who attacks no one. And not ban someone like Urban Guerrilla who repeatedly demeans and disparages others?
jaminhealth and Urbane Guerilla do share one common attribute. They both make 'soundbite' claims that are not justified by supporting facts. And that are promoted only by propaganda machines. Both also ignore replies that expose their logic mistakes.
UG includes insults with his denials. jaminhealth did not. Why a double standard?
That's two questions.
Army of Darkness - Lady I'm Afraid I'm ...
Apple is doing that in their App Store (to Epic Games and Fortnight). So the video is a Hollywood reenactment. But is that relevant?
[size=4]She wasn't banned; learn to read[/size]
[COLOR="Red"]Then why can jaminhealth not post? [/COLOR] Read the contradiction! Stop being so emotional.
Oh. Double secret probation. Why didn't you say so?
Meanwhile, why do you keep avoiding that second question? [SIZE="4"]Why that double standard?[/SIZE]
Tdub - just let it go man.
Everyone's tired of this one. The site is closing and we are moving on to a new place - the whole JIH debacle is old news now. Let it die - there will be other arguments other disagreements and debates.
tw,
Why don't you insult me one last time for old time's sake, and then I will ban you and then you can tell people you were banned.
Why don't you insult me one last time for old time's sake,
UT I never insulted you. Ever. But I do openly challenge some posts that you spawned. Aggressively and with supporting facts. Especially about Saddam's WMDs since the resulting damage to America was that obvious. Those (your) conclusions exist separately from you.
That is never an attack on you or any other person - as summarized here:
Vit C, Vit D, Zinc and Grape Seed Extract.
I routinely discuss Saddam's WMDs because it is an insightful historical fact that all must or should have learned from. And that so many, today, still do not apologize for the massacre of 5,000 servicemen for no purpose (as also discussed in dejavue Nam).
Others should also learn why astronauts were killed on Challenger and Columbia (criminally negligent homicide). Why a scumbag Trump attacked obsolete airplanes in a Syrian air force base - ignoring Putin provided nerve gas stockpiles. An event in history. None of that or this discussion insults you or any other adult.
What is the difference between an adult's and child's brain? Facts from science that also do not insult anyone.
A logical question remains. Should never create emotions in any adult. Why a double standard? Since Urbane Guerrilla routinely insults others (rather than address facts). While jaminhealth did not insult anyone (although insulted something that is not any person - logical thought).
Outstanding questions: Why ban (or cut off) jaminhealth while condoning UGs constant personally disparaging comments? And why is jaminhealth unable to post (but is somehow not banned)?
And then a third question that jaminhealth also refuses to answer. Why do so many 'health' supplements not contain any of ingredients listed on its label? A damning question that is reposted. Since it is fundamental to this "relevant and underlying" question.
Apparently those posted thoughts are so damning that their parents will not defend them. That is the topic.
DanaC - this is about honesty. I have never stopped addressing dishonest thoughts. And still remind everyone about so many who will not apologized for advocating 5,000 deaths in Mission Accomplished. And no apologized for 50,000 useless dearths in VietNam. Both lessons from history. Those conclusions (rampant dishonesty) is the topic. No person is insulted.
Unfortunately, many assume an attacked thought is a personal insult. It clearly is not if one is thinking like an adult.
Challenging topics insults no one. Those topics (thoughts) exist separate and on their own. Challenging them bluntly does not disparage anyone. For the same reasons that bogus (unsubstantiated) claims by jaminhealth need not result in punishment or censorship.
Attacking persons, as Urbane Geurrilla, Fox News, the scumbag president Don, Sexobon, and other anti-humanity extremist often do, is unacceptable.
So three questions remain ignored and unanswered. Two by UT. And one by jaminhealth.
Oh. A fourth question. Does double secret probation exist?
I politely explained to her that her posts were not well-received by the community and that she should politely leave. She politely did.
I will shortly be politely explaining the same thing to you.
I politely explained to her that her posts were not well-received by the community and that she should politely leave. She politely did.
A simple technical question finally answered. jaminhealth now says she would be banned if continued posting. An answer confirmed. Curious. How to be banned without being banned.
jaminhealth still refuses to answer a relevant and damning question. Why do 90% of those health supplements not contain what is listed on its label? For 30 years, her conclusion only from observation (also called junk science) demonstrates how easily scams can be promoted. And so again the point. Why avoid damning questions that expose myths, lies, and scams? jaminhealth still ignores that damning question. Demonstrates how easily consumers can be brainwashed even for 30 years when they do not demand reasons well proven by science with perspectives (numbers).
Another damning question. Why is her diet so defective as to not provide necessary nutrition?
Another question. Why a double standard? Why is Urbane Guerrilla's disparaging attacks on other persons less offensive?
tw,
You are wildly disagreeable person, and I can't wait to end this place and never hear from you again.
Although... it is true that I threatened her with a further ban if she didn't stop posting.
I have banned her now for clarification, beef away if you like
IT NO LONGER MATTERS WHAT I DO BECAUSE THIS PLACE IS CLOSING
wanna ban tw just for funzies?
Yet something holds you back.
Morals or some shit...
I'm ambivalent. I usually only get 2 or 3 lines into his posts before my eyes glaze over, so....
i shouldn't like to have that as our final transaction after all this time
I would loooooove it...
Having said that, thank you for not banning me.
i shouldn't like to have that as our final transaction after all this time
Well, I see that he's joined the new board, so you may yet be able to continue your discourse and loathing.
Well, that's disappointing.
But now UT won't have to engage if he doesnt want to because he won't be responsible for the site.
