Remember

.

Some ppl I follow are saying it's 4D chess, because it has caused the entire left bubble to circle the wagons around the progressives --

... one day after Pelosi tried to shrug them off, again, because...

... the day before, an internal D poll showed AOC is "defining the Dems" among swing voters in swing states, they never hear about anything else, and she has a 22% favorable rating.

It's a trap!

ah, not just some ppl I follow. NBC News figures it out

Aaaaaaand the first approval poll after all this, shows: a little uptick

Rasmussen has it at 50% approval 48% disapproval. Well they are an "outlier"

If there is a full court press declaration of racism, and the voters seem to not care, the only way to move forward with it is to accuse the voters of being racist... and that has now happened

He has made everyone so angry they can't shoot straight... they are shooting everything, there are bullet holes everywhere and a lot of bleeding, but the shooters are so angry they have forgotten how to hit the target

Insulting the pols can be productive if done right, but insulting the voters is not. I don't know for sure but I betcha, if you watch Trump, his playground bully style taunting is directed at his enemies, not at the people who vote for them.

The loser in all of this is the US of A. I hope we stop losing so hard but I think it will get worse first

I think you're right. :yesnod:
Trump has pissed off so many factions, in their indignation they're at odds with not only with him but with anyone who doesn't share their specific butthurt. He'll do a lot more damage to the nation, indeed the world, before he's done. I'm glad it's not my problem.

xoxoxoBruce;1035970 wrote:

Trump has pissed off so many factions, in their indignation they're at odds with not only with him but with anyone who doesn't share their specific butthurt.

You are trying to understand logically. Plenty know only from their emotions. If thinking logically, his supporters should number something well less than 20%. Why still well above 40%? That many are that emotional. The relevant expression was clearly posted here.

They want to "wreck shit". And only openly endorse their emotions when they have a bully to promote it. Be it Milosevic, Hitler, Hutu elite, Stalin, Pol Pot, or Trump. They know he must be right because their emotions say so. That many voters are not officer material. Assuming those who want to "wreck shit" are logical is a major mistake.

tw;1035978 wrote:

... Assuming those who want to "wreck shit" are logical is a major mistake.

Not necessarily so, if one wants to "wreck shit" as a calculated act of desperation.

[YOUTUBE]6vAujEWXnGk[/YOUTUBE]

tw;1035978 wrote:

You are trying to understand logically. Plenty know only from their emotions. If thinking logically, his supporters should number something well less than 20%.

I was speaking of the democratic politicians/entourages that Tony referred to being insulted, don't drag me into your tangent.

xoxoxoBruce;1035992 wrote:

... don't drag me into your tangent.

You are my personal project. For the first time in your life, you will eventually perform a logical act. You may do it desperately. But anyone can eventually act as an adult.

The fuck I will.
I refuse to become one of you bags of self-righteous insecurities who are always wrong but never in doubt.

xoxoxoBruce;1036007 wrote:

The fuck I will.

A classic emotional response from the reptilian brain.

Please withhold your profanity until you have something sentient to contribute.

tw bite my ASS.

Undertoad;1035967 wrote:

The loser in all of this is the US of A. I hope we stop losing so hard but I think it will get worse first

About the only thing I see the US of A losing is the Socialist-Democrats and their brood of vipers.

Which is a great gain. Unless you're a viper.

Is The Donald obnoxious? Yes. Does that impair his being President? Some would like to think it does -- I don't. Don't like keeping that kind of company. I didn't like the way the economy acted under Obama, that socialist, and I do like the way the economy acts under Trump, that real estate mogul and capitalist and maker of more capitalism. The rising tide lifts all the boats, and only the carefully noneducated will say otherwise. It's how you detect that species of ignoranus. With an N -- those people carry a stink.

There is freemarket capitalism, and there are the lesser, poorer ways, in which life is less. Not for me; and if it's for you you've got another think coming. You might prefer to do that before the people of liberty throw you into prison so you can't mess up any more lives or cities.

Trump has set the would-be political class at their true value: Trump spent a real estate career cultivating, buying, selling, renting politicos as needed for his work -- to facilitate, to hold back, to whatever. They were a cost item. He knows their price -- and their worth *isn't* the inflated valuation they give themselves. Now the sheet's off, and their small penises revealed. They can't stand that. Their media mouthpieces can't take it either. This has resulted in slumping share for CNN and MSNBC, the mouthpieces and sockpuppets.

There was for many Administrations this tendentious insistence in some quarters, some dark, unenlightened quarters where hopelessness and socialism are concentrated, that any Republican President means the republic loses by having him. The evidence shows these predictions are wrong. They said it of Goldwater and a majority believed it. They said that of Reagan, of Bush the elder, of Bush the younger, they wouldn't say it of Clinton the non-ethical, and they're really ranting up a din of it with Trump.

We will find they are just as wrong this time as they were the last four times. I will rejoice at the Socialist-Democrats taking a thumb in the eye. I want the Left defeated, then indicted, then convicted of misdemeanors against humanity. Then on the several Capitol steps of the several States and DC, given Public Enemas No.1 through No.51; not ethnic cleansing, but personal. They will become less full of ... it.

It won't help our Democratic Congresscritters to distinguish mental masturbation from scalp massage any better -- but there, counseling may help.

That sort of thing is mighty rich coming from you, tw.

You're trying to tell us you're worth something. Well, no. You haven't been worth something since age ten. You want to tell anyone how to be worthy? You can't do that: in TW World, *nothing* and *no one* is good, nothing is worthy. *All* things are spoken of only to bitch about them. You're like an Aspberger's case in a permanent bad mood.

Because of that you don't get interacted with very much on-forum. Reptilian brain? You *have all of the reptilian brain,* and you won't share. You have it; we don't get any. Guess we'll just have to enjoy well adjusted mentalities, which concept seems not merely inconceivable to you, but alien.

fargon;1036016 wrote:

tw bite my ASS.

Sorry. Somebody already beat me to it. Nothing is left.

And I don't eat leftovers anyway.

Undertoad;1035967 wrote:

The loser in all of this is the US of A. I hope we stop losing so hard but I think it will get worse first

We seem determined to rip each other apart. It's easy to lose sight of what we all love in this country when we're accusing each other of insufficient love of same. I almost despair when I compare where we are now with NASA's work in the late 60's. I try not to despair by focusing on how bad the public perception of 1968-69 was except for the moon shot. We can dig ourselves out of this hole but only if we learn to respect each other.

Remember.

Today on the $100,000 pyramid

The "squad"... the quality of inner city Baltimore... Al Sharpton...

"Things the majority of Americans do not embrace but the Democrats are now defending because of tweets."

Griff;1036180 wrote:

We seem determined to rip each other apart.

Hitler used same techniques to obtain power. How many bother to learn from history?

Apollo was totally about making decisions (and risks) from numbers. Today, so many only know something because it was the first thing they were told. How many learned what is always necessary to have sucess - perspective.

A benchmark remains: Saddam's WMDs (or the same lies that promoted Vietnam). Numbers (or facts based in science experience) and fundamental facts posted repeatedly here clearly demonstrated that hearsay was a lie. In each case subjective reasoning ignored well proven facts tempered by perspective and history.

Fact. Tax cuts create recessions. Reality will apparently again prove that fact. Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019. How severe? We do not yet know. No numbers exist to answer that. Only the subjective (emotional) will answer (or deny). But those who promoted emotional conclusions are already in denial.

Conclusions from subjective reasoning are also called brainwashing. Only recite what the central committee of the communist party has ordered us to believe. Trump said so. So it must be true.

In America, we are told to disparage every American ally, and to praise Putin, Xi, and Kim. We are ordered to believe. So it must be true - exactly like Saddam's WMDs and the evil Ho Chi Minh.

Trump's support comes from hate: the so many who also approve of the KKK, Nazi, and White Supremacists. That makes him popular - and reelected. Derisive is what Hitler, Milosevic, et al use to promote themselves. Polls demonstrate that 40% of Americans love those kinds of people. Some even post their hate inspired rhetoric here - repeatedly. They have no idea that hate is successfully being used to promote those emotions; to rip each other apart.

"Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019. How severe? We do not yet know. No numbers exist to answer that."

What numbers? Post them.

henry quirk;1036478 wrote:

What numbers? Post them.

Those numbers were already posted - and multiple times. Only extremists conclude denials by ignoring facts and numbers.

"Those numbers were already posted - and multiple times."

Where? Which thread(s)? I wanna look at 'em.

#

"Only extremists conclude denials by ignoring facts and numbers."

Only liars avoid ponying up the evidence they claim they have, but don't.

I'm still waitin' for you to pony up those numbers...you know: the ones you claim were already posted multiple times, the ones that make it clear a recession began at the beginning of 2019.

Where are they, tw?

Where are the numbers?

You don't have to repost 'em here: just point me to the thread or threads where you did post 'em.

Those many economic indicators were reported by the many responsible news services. But apparently not by Fox News. the Drudge Report, or Rush Limbaugh. Propaganda only reports what one is ordered to believe.

"Those many economic indicators were reported by the many responsible news services."

You claimed to have posted them here, in the Cellar, multiple times. I want you to direct me to those posts, or just admit you're a goddamned liar.

Tried to find 'em. According to tw we were already in recession in December 2018:

https://cellar.org/showthread.php?p=1022054&highlight=recession#post1022054

It looked like downturn at the end of 2018, but we've had two quarters of positive growth since then.

Recession is inevitable and they are saying 2020 now.

"Tried to find 'em."

And all you, Master of this Domain, could find was this...

https://cellar.org/showthread.php?p=1022054&highlight=recession#post1022054

...wherein tw (like the broken extremist record he is) lays blame on Trump without a stitch of that 'evidence' he crows about.

So: when tw sez "Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019.", and that he, in this here forum, posted those numbers "multiple times", he, in fact, was lyin', is a liar, and that facts mean nuthin' to him.

#

"Recession is inevitable."

Probably, but -- seems to me -- recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies. Sure, Trump's tariffs could retard the economy, but more likely Keynesian pessimism (and the unamericanism of folks like tw) will retard the economy.

People whose information comes from honest sources know leading indicators say a recession apparently started at the the beginning of 2019 (as predicted at the end of 2018).

For example, the Obama economy results in construction permits of
2014 1.04 million
2015 1.18 m
2016 1.20 m
2017 1.28 m
2018 1.32 m

The current trend for 2019 (per marketwatch.com puts that number at 1.14 m - recessionary. Honest news sources have been reporting this. Friends who process this stuff had noted a maybe as much as a 20% drop at the end of last year - and continuing. All leading indicators.

Anyone not educated by propaganda (masking as news sources) also know the inverted yield curves said a recession started in the first quarter 2019. Another leading indicator.

GDP is a lagging indicator. For example, those leading indicators in early 2000 noted that America was not doing as well (but still growing) between 2002 and 2006. So the resulting recession finally appeared in jobs, corporate profit sheets, trade numbers, and GDP in 2006 through 2009.

Extremists only want to be told what to believe. The definition of wackos. Propaganda (lying) sources forget that this is still the tail end of an Obama economy. Extremist are only told lagging indicators. Some were posted above by forgetting its reports on the strength of that Obama economy.

Even stock markets (mostly Republican biased) are questioning this economy. Including an unprecedented 3% drop in one day. They have good reason to fear due to economic destruction obviously and currently implemented by a scum bag president that only extremists could love. Since extremists love anyone who would wreck shit.

Starting about Jan 2018, the stock market indexes where suddenly quite volatile. And have averaged almost no growth in that 18 months. Even markets have become suspicious of this economy.

This suggests (if things do not change) a recession will appear in job losses in a few more years (another lagging indicator that only reports what was happening in the economy many years previously).

Those who get honest news have been watching an ominous situation (and not only in economics - who still deny warning about the Sprately and Parcel islands). A recession is a certainty in part because it has been intentionally created by an extremist president for self serving and egotistical reasons.

This president loves how Putin, Xi, and Kim appeal to his ego. He has harmed American trade. He even insults American allies. American prestige around the world is at an all time low in all but a few places.

American trade in the Obama years increases on average 6.3% exports and 6.5% imports annually. In the past year, both exports and imports are now down (negative) about 0.7%. A number expected to fall as Trump advances himself at the expense of America. And another indication that growth has already stalled. What happens before lagging indicators report this recession years from now.

American annual GDP numbers from 1960 to 2017 have never seen a dip except during 2007 - the only recession that threatened to become as bad as 1929. Citing GDP numbers is a poor indication of a recession since recessions in 1979-1982, 1990-1991, and 2001-2002 do not appear as notable dips in annual GDP numbers.

Leading indicators report a recession has started in the first quarter this year. Extremists educated by Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck, Laura Ingles, et al would never learn reality. And clearly do not know what a leading indicator is. People using honest new sources do. It explains why a wacko extremist will post more disparaging comments rather than honest facts.

Some facts posted previous are posted again. The extremist would not know any of this. Extremist propaganda services don't report honestly - just like they lied about Hurricane Katrina and the dead of 5000 good American servicemen for no purpose in a Mission Accomplished war. More facts that exrtremist will ignore to instead post what they were ordered to believe.

Again: you said "Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019.", and that you, in this here forum, posted those numbers "multiple times".

I want links to those posts.

Provide them or admit you are a lyin' liar.

Recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies having far more to do with Keynesian pessimism than actual down-turns or slowdowns.

'Experts" report a recession is imminent (based solely on their gut, what they believe should happen).

Folks, who see no evidence of a recession now or tomorrow, began actin' as though they were in the midst of one, or that one is around the corner, cuz the 'experts' say it's so.

The 'experts' (and the extremists like you) create the recession by influencing the behaviors of sellers, buyers, and manufacturers with Chicken Little predictions.

henry quirk;1036609 wrote:

Recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies having far more to do with Keynesian pessimism than actual down-turns or slowdowns.

So the Central Committee of the Communist Party has again trained you in what to know.

Funny how concepts such as mathematics, economics, and history say otherwise. Your political handlers will not discuss these things. But they will recommend you get a bigger gun. Always a good solution for an extremist who wants to wreck shit.

"Funny how concepts such as mathematics, economics, and history say otherwise."

Funny how extremists like yourself ignore the basic reality about an economy: it's all about people (what they have, what they want [not what folks like yourself think they should have or want]).

An economy is nuthin' more than the countless transactions between and among individuals occurring within a context of what's available. Those 'leading indicators' you place so much faith in (like the good lil religionist you are) are nuthin' but guess work and estimate used by 'experts', who fundamentally don't know diddly about diddly, to sway opinion, to fulfill prophecy.

You're a workhorse bein' led by a carrot that isn't even real.

henry quirk;1036649 wrote:

Those 'leading indicators' you place so much faith in (like the good lil religionist you are) are nuthin' but guess work and estimate used by 'experts', who fundamentally don't know diddly about diddly, to sway opinion, to fulfill prophecy.

Demonstrated but again is why extremists want to wreck shit. Since they just know; need not first learn anything. Even gleefully advocated the massacre of 5000 American serviceman for no useful purpose. Since insults prove righteousness.

:devil:

tw;1036601 wrote:

People whose information comes from honest sources know leading indicators say a recession apparently started at the the beginning of 2019 (as predicted at the end of 2018).

Economists note that employment has stayed artificially higher since so many companies were trying to import and stock up on supplies from China before the "we want to create recession" tariffs. Masking the fact that previous tariffs had already done economic harm.

From the Economist of 24 Aug 2019:

In recent weeks the humans and silicon brains at Google have registered an alarming rise in searches related to "recession". It is easily explained. As markets gyrate, talk in the press turns to the risk of a slump. Even so, the stories must leave some Googlers baffled. In July, after all, the American economy added some 164,000 jobs and retail sales kept climbing. ...

Today's confusion owes something to the world's odd recent economic history. The last global slump occurred amid an epic financial crisis. The one before that began nearly two decades ago accompanied, again, by the stockmarket crash. Between August 2000 and September 2001 [George Jrs tenure] the S&P 500 index fell by more than 30% and the NASDAQ by more than 60%. Now, by contrast, those indices are pretty much where they were a year ago. Most people cannot remember a recession not linked to financial chaos. But downturns can occur without market meltdowns.

Stock market feel. When did the resulting economic calamity occur? Five years later it appeared in lagging indicators such as jobs.

Apparent are factors that says a downturn has started. While The Don is openly encouraging it to preach to his base - at the expense of this American economy. Lagging indicators (employment, retail sales) will not report this downturn for years. But leading indicator (ie gyrations in the stock market, inverted yield curves, and a new indicator - Google searches) demonstrate The Don has successfully started the downturn.

He raised tariffs on imported steel to protect American steel making jobs. And so US Steel shutdown blast furnaces in its Great Lakes and Gary IN plant in June. Then in Aug announced 200 layoffs for what may be up to six months. Yea, those tariffs really helped. As tariffs always do. They destroy jobs. But it sure makes wacko extremists so love Trump.

Meanwhile, an egotist who loves Putin, Xi, and Kim while demonstrating repeated contempt for our closest allies, again, did harm only to make himself look good. Trump released secret satellite photographs of an Iranian rocket pad taken from a satellite that America's enemies are not even suppose to know exists.

Trump's reply. I am the president and can do what I want. People who want to wreck shit love that attitude.

From what I've read, America's enemies already knew the satellite exists. Even amateur satellite trackers knew about it, had been tracking it, and had projected its capabilities. They just hadn't actually seen the results before; because, the results hadn't previously been in an open source. Any strategic loss due to dissemination would seem to be slight.

Keep in mind; also, that enemies are not the only reason for classifying information. Some things are classified because they're deemed unsuitable for American public consumption (e.g. One can imagine how this information could play into conspiracy theories about the US government spying on American citizens; or, tracking illegal aliens.)

Sometimes it's just a political call that depends on the political climate at the time of classification and again at declassification.

A little about what others already knew, here.

How do we know that's not a CGI image?

How do we know they didn't lower astronauts down on a cable from the International Space Station to take closeups with their HD cameras.

'nuff said

xoxoxoBruce;1037929 wrote:

How do we know that's not a CGI image?

If responsible, then he could have posted pictures from the so many public reconnaissance satellites. But he is egotistical. He wants to show off how much better those secret pictures are.

Everyone knows where satellites are. That was never secret. Unknown is what the many secret ones are and what they do. For example what is the X-37 doing; a spaceshuttle that works better because it has no humans.

Trump simply gave away secret information such as resolution and abilities of KH-11 satellites. Now the 'enemies' have a good idea what they must do to remain hidden. And what they need not do.

Does that satellite have other advanced features such as movable lens (an expression intentionally vague so that another secret function need not be understood). Not known if his pictures also gave away that function.

If responsible, he could have used pictures from publicly available satellites from DigitalGlobe or Geo-Airbus. No. He needed to brag how much better 'his' satellites are.

Which again raises a serious 'off the record' question among psychiatrists. Is he really same? He is clearly not responsible.

BTW, we know how Xi, Kim, and Putin play successfully on his ego. No secret there. And not something that Trump will brag about. Honesty is not one of his features.

Some people just like making mountains out of molehills, the Chicken Littles of the world.

sexobon;1037939 wrote:

Some people just like making mountains out of molehills, the Chicken Littles of the world.

That one satellite costs more than an aircraft carrier. His ego is more important than protecting its secrets. Mental competency is an obvious question. That is an Everest mountain.

We know this idiot even shared secrets with the Russian ambassador and foreign minister while they were alone in the Oval Office. Why would anyone trust a penis brain covered with a bad blond wig.

:lol2:

tw;1037942 wrote:

That one satellite costs more than an aircraft carrier. His ego is more important than protecting its secrets. Mental competency is an obvious question. That is an Everest mountain.

We know this idiot even shared secrets with the Russian ambassador and foreign minister while they were alone in the Oval Office. Why would anyone trust a penis brain covered with a bad blond wig.

I thought resorting to insults was the domain of small minds and emotional children.:eyebrow:

What's got ya so wound up, pudd'n pop?

Julian Assange did nothing wrong!

Undertoad;1037955 wrote:

Julian Assange did nothing wrong!

they;698722 wrote:

... accuse Assange of treason when Assange is neither an American nor did he do anything to compromise American security. ...

That's what they say.

If he's not an American what's the problem, just send a drone to take him out.

Gravdigr;1037950 wrote:

I thought resorting to insults was the domain of small minds and emotional children.

Nothing but the facts ma'am. His ego comes from what he uses for a brain. Simplified in a manner that even a Trump supporter would understand.

xoxoxoBruce;1037957 wrote:

If he's not an American what's the problem, just send a drone to take him out.

Yes, it is still legal.

It is also still legal to steal, hack the accounts of, and spy on all citizens of American allies. They too are still fair game. Good hunting.

Man, you are stuck on that Trump supporter bit, aren't ya?:lol2:

Is Trump yer daddy, or sumpthin?

A word on Trump support, apparently the Trump banners shipped last week before the tariffs hit cuz they were all over the place this morning.

I'm waiting for Ivanka to add Trump supporters to her clothing line.

Here you go.

Could just as well be for Boris' Johnson.

Trump shocked at the wreckage he caused.

xoxoxoBruce;1038117 wrote:

Trump shocked at the wreckage he caused.

He has already blamed someone else.

What wreckage?

Modern nuclear carriers run about ten billion per, less the air wing. I'd have to see some pretty thorough proof to believe a dedicated photo recon satellite costs more than that.

Gravdigr;1037980 wrote:

Man, you are stuck on that Trump supporter bit, aren't ya?:lol2:

Is Trump yer daddy, or sumpthin?

TW has his favorite rut, worn smooth through use. He gets stuck a lot; even his insults are by Xerox; having attached himself to saying "wacko extremist" to or of anyone or anything he disagrees with, he seeks no more. Hasn't for years.

I think I've never met any one man with less amour-propre. In TW World, nothing is great, nothing is worthy -- and tw's self is the foremost example he can think of.

henry quirk;1038130 wrote:

What wreckage?

He's had to give US farmers $25 Billion of your money to try to repair damage done by his tariffs game with China. It's not enough and no end in sight.
I should say your future money plus interest.

"He's had to give US farmers $25 Billion of your money to try to repair damage done by his tariffs game with China. It's not enough and no end in sight.I should say your future money plus interest."

Farmers have been subsidized forever: your dime & mine.

Call it what you like but it's the same shit as always.

Oh no, this is above and beyond the farm subsidies every year.

.

But again another indication that the recession started at the beginning of the year. Not that anyone need facts. Since what The Don has done is how previous recession were created.

From the Economist of 21 Sept 2019:

Trade tensions and wilting global growth have seen business cut back investment in the second quarter of this year. In manufacturing, production and capacity utilisation have been falling since the end of 2018 [when Trump's economic policies started taking effect]...

On September 17th, for the first time in a decade, the Fed injected cash into the short-term money markets. The intervention was needed after the federal funds are, at which banks can borrow from each other, climbed above the Fed's target. It rose as the "repo" rate - the price at which high-quality securities such as American government bonds can be temporarily swapped for cash - hit an intra-day peak of over 10%. ...

That sent shivers down spines. A spiking repo rate was an early warning sign before the financial crisis in 2007.

America's banks and companies seem to be short of cash. And during that turmoil the repo rate stopped tracking the federal funds rate.

How can this be after The Don cut taxes to enrich the rich? Go back to those posts to learn what was predicted - and is now happening. Only extremists say a tax cut is good because the Central Committee of the Party said so. Facts and numbers predicted what is now happening.

Fortunately the Fed's interventions seemed to work. The repo rate returned to its usual level, close to the federal funds rate. ... Even so, the turmoil rasied questions about how it plans to handle future cash shortages.

Due to The Don and extremists who love him, more such events are expected.

Everyone will suffer, some already are, from Trump's tariff war bullshit.
Emails from Edward Jones every damn day this week.

xoxoxoBruce;1039391 wrote:

Emails from Edward Jones every damn day this week.

What are those emails saying? Same topic? Different aspects of tarrifs? Or are they also discussing other economic damage?

Damage reports, and advice not to panic. Trump too, shall pass.

Apparently the market sits at about where it was in January '18? That's not bad considering the nuttiness. A cynic would look for "lucky" sales and purchases timed around tweets.