Call the election
This is NOT a discussion thread, any posts (apart from this one) longer than a few, non run-on sentences will be deleted by the mods (right mods? You've got m back on this?)
The point of the thread is like the celeb death pool; the point is to win. And you win by declaring in front of FSM, the cellar, and everybody who will win the next election.
Not who you want to win, not who you think should win, not who any pundits are saying will win, but who you think will be our next president, like it or not.
You may include a brief explanation as long as it doesn't exceed the first rule.
Barring any catastrophic event or sudden untimely death of any candidate, I call Trump as the next POTUS.
If you don't see why this is practically a fait accompli then you have insulated yourself from mainstream America.
Barring any catastrophic event...
That's what this election will be...a catastrophic event.
I predict Monica's ex-boyfriend's wife.
I give Trump a 40% chance of victory to Hillary's 60% chance. I'm calling Hillary. I am sure that like most people, I surround myself with like minded individuals, but I have yet to learn of anyone I know in the real world or on Facebook that say they support Trump. Trump will win the GOP nomination though.
I call Trump to win the GOP nomination, and then make a crazy-ass choice for running mate--like, Bernie, if Hillary wins the democratic nomination, and vice versa. Or someone completely out of left field who has zero political experience, but definitely liberal leanings.
Trump-plus-Dem-running-mate will win, and then Trump will resign immediately after inauguration and put his VP in charge. Because he's all about the power games, and the publicity, and the news cycle. Better than getting elected President? Getting to fucking pick whoever you want for President, with basically no one else's say so.
I like that theory. I still can't imagine him wanting to run the country, so it fits my preconceived notions and I like it.
What are the rules for Congress removing a President? They can impeach one without too much trouble, but actually removing one from office was a higher hurdle IIRC. (See, for example Bill Clinton.) I can see an outsider like a President Trump being removed by his "own party", especially if he chooses a running mate they like.
I like that theory. I still can't imagine him wanting to run the country, so it fits my preconceived notions and I like it.
Just needs his very own Cheney.
I'll call it for Trump. The cold anger has reached a critical level.
I like Clodfobble's theory too. I hadn't considered that gambit.
As an aside, a President (or Supreme Court Justice) cannot be impeached on a whim. They must be tried in the Senate for high crimes and misdemeanors or some such "good reason".
Delegates aren't actually required to vote for who they're pledged to. They don't even have to vote for someone who was on the ballot.
I'd see that as a small but nonzero possibility if either Trump or Sanders win the votes; their respective party establishments really don't want them.
As an aside, a President (or Supreme Court Justice) cannot be impeached on a whim. They must be tried in the Senate for high crimes and misdemeanors or some such "good reason".
Sure, but you know they can "trump" up some charges.
This is NOT a discussion thread, any posts (apart from this one) longer than a few, non run-on sentences will be deleted by the mods (right mods? You've got m back on this?)
The point of the thread is like the celeb death pool; the point is to win. And you win by declaring in front of FSM, the cellar, and everybody who will win the next election.
Not who you want to win, not who you think should win, not who any pundits are saying will win, but who you think will be our next president, like it or not.
You may include a brief explanation as long as it doesn't exceed the first rule.
I love how a thread about our Democratic process pleading for authoritarian control has turned into a textbook example of anarchy.
I love you cellar.
Trump for the win. Unfortunately, I take him at his word so fascism to follow.
I have called every presidential election rite since 1964. I usually wait until after the conventions. But I will go out on a limb, and say Donald for the win. And then he quits 6 months in because he can't control congress.
I still want Bernie.
Want: Bernie
Will: Hillary
Elections go the way of the swing vote (typically moderates). I think (hope) Trump scares the living shit out of the swing vote, pushing them to Hillary.
As was said often in Nam - It just doesn't matter.
Santorum won 11 state primaries before McCain finally was recognized as a clearly superior leader. No informed person has any idea (at this point) who will be the nominees. Some states were so myopic as to change their primaries (or caucuses) to before or just after the Super Bowl.
You mean before Mitt Romney, not McCain...
As an outsider, when there was only one celebrity in the race (Hillary) it was kind of ok. There's always one candidate who everyone already knew; but as time has gone on and it's looking pretty likely that it'll be toss up between two celebrities, both with disastrous reputations for discretion and less than ideal public profiles, it says a lot about what the people in power think the people of the USA want.
Are these clowns really what the people want?
We really want Putin, but he's busy. :(
Oh we all want Putin. He's the bad boy with power! haha
This is killing Bernie, all those youthful supporters don't vote.
It's more complicated for college agers and young adults. The retired old bastards have all day go to the same precinct they've been in for a life-time and vote party line. In PA, the youngsters need to be registered with one of the two old parties which have largely failed them in their lifetimes, and sign up for absentee ballots well ahead of the primary or register in their new voting district. You can be a completely tuned out dumfuck as an old-timer and vote. The youngsters have to actually engage...
It just occurred to me last night that I haven't seen ANY tv commercials for any candidates, and our primary is in a week on super Tuesday. I read in the paper this morning that some ads are running in Richmond, but none here.
It's nice, but I also feel neglected.
I can't believe you have to register with one of the parties to be allowed to vote. Kind of seems a bit dumb to have to vote if you've already declared your allegiance. I guess you could be 'just trickin'. :eek:
I think he's talking about voting in the primaries to elect a Party candidate to run in the general election. You have to be a member of a particular Party to elect their candidate; otherwise, people could sabotage a Party's process by voting for the candidate least likely to succeed against candidates from other parties in the general election.
In Jan 2017, President Rubio and Vice President Clinton will be sworn into office.
In Washington I'm delighted and proud to say we have truly open primary elections. Now, to be fair, they're late, they don't mean much, we don't have many delegates at stake and some political organizations disregard the outcomes entirely (Democrats, I'm looking at you :eyebrow:).
In our primary elections, the top two vote getters advance to the general election. Now, I've never seen a national general election where the two candidates were NOT from opposing parties, but there have been many lower scope elections where the top two candidates that advanced to the general election were both from the same party.
You *DO* have to be registered to vote to vote, but you don't have to show up anywhere. We have had all mail in elections for years. No need to sign up for absentee ballots, you just have to be registered. Your ballot arrives at your address of record some weeks in advance of the election, you do have to put a stamp on the envelope unless you wish to hand-carry it to one of several special ballot-collection-boxes scattered throughout the city (don't know if that's only Seattle, I've only voted in Seattle my whole time in Washington).
Furthermore, there's movement in the state legislature to make voter registration *AUTOMATIC* when you deal with other state agencies that require proof of citizenship/residency to do your business, like the DMV, etc. You can *opt-out* of being registered, but otherwise, your pertinent data for that agency that matches what the ?? state voter registrar ?? needs gets forwarded to that part of the gummint and you get your voter registration card in the mail, just like your other business.
Now college students need to get their mail in ballot, sure, like they need to get their other mail from home. Unless they've registered in the place where they actually are, in which case they'd still need to pick up their mail. That's a preeeetttty low bar, young people. You do have to look up from your phone, so.. non-trivial.
But it's pretty easy to vote here. I love it.
Scott Adams (Dilbert's dad), explains why Trump will win.
Clown Genius
Like many of you, I have been entertained by the unstoppable clown car that is Donald Trump. On the surface, and several layers deep as well, Trump appears to be a narcissistic blow-hard with inadequate credentials to lead a country. The only problem with my analysis is that there is an eerie consistency to his success so far.
Is there a method to it? Is there some sort of system at work under the hood?
Probably yes. Allow me to describe some of the hypnosis and persuasion methods Mr. Trump has employed on you. (Most of you know I am a trained hypnotist and this topic is a hobby of mine.)
For starters, Trump literally wrote the book on negotiating, called The Art of the Deal. So we know he is familiar with the finer points of persuasion. For our purposes today, persuasion, hypnosis, and negotiating all share a common set of tools, so I will conflate them. Would Trump use his negotiation and persuasion skills in the campaign? Of course he would. And we expect him to do just that.
But where is the smoking gun of his persuasion? Where is his technique laid out for us to see?
Everywhere.
I posted about this in another thread, but I was undecided until yesterday morning when I read this article. It's long, but I found it worth while to go back and read the whole thing.
http://static.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/unless-the-democrats-nominate-sanders-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency.
It shocks me and makes me think now that Trump will be our next president. I can't go back and change my prediction in this thread, but there you go. I call Trump.
I'm voting for Bernie to try to stop that from happening, but it's going to happen anyway because Hillary will win for the Dems and Trump will eviscerate her. This is not a normal election and the normal rules don't apply.
Ed Zachary
Hilary represents everything that is wrong with our oligarchic faux democratic government.
Bernie represents facing the unpleasant, mainly having to think, take action, and pay the piper for years of doing nothing as far as self agency is concerned.
Trump represents emotion-driven, non-critical thinking, sound-bite loving, reactionary rhetoric fueled behavior. In other words, he represents the majority of the US.
If either Trump or Sanders wins, the country will ultimately probably be better off if only because of the disruption to the status quo.