California on the Brink

classicman • Jun 30, 2009 3:34 pm
Armageddon. Apocalypse. Disaster: These are the words being used to describe California's staggering $24 billion budget deficit. With a midnight deadline to balance the budget, state lawmakers are facing a daunting task: Find a way to bridge the gap or start issuing $3 billion in IOUs this week to cover the bills.

Almost every state is suffering from the effects of the recession, but not every state accounts for 12 percent of the national gross domestic product. According to AP, if California goes down, so goes the nation: California's annual $1.7 trillion economy is the world's eighth-largest economy and provides a significant chunk of tax revenue for the government; California alone funds many social programs for the entire nation.

Like the Big Three automakers, California may be "too big to fail." If the state implodes, the ripple effect could slow the entire nation's recovery from the recession. Burt P. Flickinger, a retail consultant, tells AP:

"California is the key catalyst for U.S. retail sales, and if California falls further you will see the U.S. economy suffer significantly."

How did California dig itself such a huge hole? The recession certainly didn't help, but Time's Kevin O'Leary writes that California's financial troubles can be traced back to the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978. An antitax measure, Prop 13 makes it extremely difficult to raise taxes or pass a budget unless a 2/3 majority in both state houses agree — a virtually impossible task. California Rep. Zoe Lofgren tells Politico:

"If we [in Congress] had to do what the California legislature does, we would never send a bill to the president of the United States,” she said.

If the political wrangling over the budget isn't resolved by midnight tonight, Californians will be feeling the pain on every level, big and small. Just a few of the proposed spending cuts:

— State employees will be forced to take another day of unpaid leave a month, in addition to the two days leave they were forced to take starting in December. (NYT)

— Funding for the Bureau of Narcotics Enforcement will be slashed by $20 million. The "little-known unit" has played a key role in several of the state's high-profile cases: The bureau's agents helped arrest Scott Petersen for the murder of his wife and unborn child, and their investigation led to charges in Anna Nicole Smith's overdose death. (AP)

— 80 percent of state parks would be closed, 25 in the Bay Area alone, including several beaches along the peninsula. Park visitors spend an estimated $2.6 billion a year in and near state parks, but closing the parks would save only .26 percent of the $24 billion deficit. (SF Chronicle)

— Education funding would be reduced by $5.3 billion. School districts have already laid off 30,000 employees. Class sizes are expected to surge from 20 to 30 students and many after school programs, arts and music classes will be cut. A national education survey conducted this year ranked California 47th in per-student spending. (AP)

— Gov. Schwarzenegger is proposing to eliminate the state's $1.3 billion welfare program. Frank Mecca, the head of the County Welfare Directors Association of California, tells Time, "California could become the only state in the First World without subsistence benefits for poor children."

So far, the government is using a "wait and see" approach to California, or as a recent Politico headline stated more bluntly — "Washington to California: Drop dead." Earlier this month, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that the administration would "monitor" the situation, but that California's "budgetary problem unfortunately is one that they're going to have to solve."


I guess that since CA is in the bag there is no reason to bail them out. This is a 2fer for the administration. They get to "evict" another R governor and they still keep the massive D votes for everything else. I wonder if it were a swing state or one that Obama lost closely in the last election ... would they be more apt to help that state out? Just thinkin...

Aside from that there are other issues for the Administration to consider. They cannot set the president of bailing states out because that is a slippery slope issue which would jeopardize whatever recovery the country is in, if any. Of course we also can't add any more to the already too much debt we have.
Happy Monkey • Jun 30, 2009 4:20 pm
Why was the Bureau of Narcotics Enforcement involved in the Scott Petersen case?
sugarpop • Jun 30, 2009 4:23 pm
Arnold supported the stimulus and other things Obama has done, so why on earth would Obama want to "evict" him? That is just ridiculous. I think the reason they are using that approach is because it would be very hard to bail them out. America has "bailout fatigue," even though we needed to do it, and we will still need to do more. Just look at the problem they are having trying to get something done about health care? And that is a HUGE problem that is only going to get much, much worse if nothing is done. Can you imagine the outcry if they started bailing out states? Sarah Palin has already been on the road talking about it, stirring people up.
slang • Jun 30, 2009 4:53 pm
California on the Brink wrote:
.......Like the Big Three automakers, California may be "too big to fail." ....


Or we may find that California is "too big to keep".

What would we expect the outcome to be if we bailed Cali out now? With what we've seen in the past 8 months or so, we'd expect to bail them out again with a similar sized package in 3 to 6 months. And then possibly in another 3 to 6 months after that.

Why not have Bernanke hire a million helicopters to drop 50 trillion freshly printed bills to everyone that might need them?

Where does all this stop? California is clearly "too big [of a burden] to keep". Just as "too big to keep" as the federal government.

Let the dominoes fall. They are going to do so whether we bail them out now, next week, next month or never.
sugarpop • Jun 30, 2009 5:04 pm
HA! California is too important NOT to keep. Did you not see this part?...
California's annual $1.7 trillion economy is the world's eighth-largest economy and provides a significant chunk of tax revenue for the government; California alone funds many social programs for the entire nation.
...or were simply ignoring it?
sugarpop • Jun 30, 2009 5:05 pm
Oh, and that 8th largest economy part, that is in the entire world, not the United States.
slang • Jun 30, 2009 5:24 pm
sugarpop;578788 wrote:
HA! California is too important NOT to keep. Did you not see this part?...
California's annual $1.7 trillion economy is the world's eighth-largest economy and provides a significant chunk of tax revenue for the government; California alone funds many social programs for the entire nation.
...or were simply ignoring it?


No, I'm not ignoring the Californian $1.7 trillion economy, I'm annoyed at the whole idea that they are so big and productive....yet a $25 billion deficit will bring them to a crash.

Not very sustainable now, are they?


sugarpop;578789 wrote:
Oh, and that 8th largest economy part, that is in the entire world, not the United States.


Should I somehow be more impressed that the 8th largest economy in the entire world is in collapse over $25 billion? Have them ask China for a loan. Maybe China will be impressed that such a BIG RICH PROGRESSIVE state is on it's knees for such a small sum.

Let them fail. Let them fail. Let them fail.
sugarpop • Jun 30, 2009 5:36 pm
Wow. I am just amazed at how some people seem to want this country to go down. :headshake
Perry Winkle • Jun 30, 2009 6:01 pm
sugarpop;578799 wrote:
Wow. I am just amazed at how some people seem to want this country to go down. :headshake


"Let" does not indicate desire. There are pragmatic benefits to letting the inevitable happen and then rebuilding.

Bailouts reward poor performance. Rewarding failure is the road to ruin, as we're now demonstrating spectacularly.
classicman • Jun 30, 2009 6:04 pm
GOLD STAR for Perry!
TheMercenary • Jun 30, 2009 9:15 pm
I want them to go bankrupt and issue IOU's. Just to show that their socialist experiment failed.
Urbane Guerrilla • Jun 30, 2009 11:23 pm
sugarpop;578799 wrote:
Wow. I am just amazed at how some people seem to want this country to go down. :headshake


We don't, Sugarpop -- but that you hold this view of it tells me your thinking is by no means as unchained from hard leftism as you've in the past claimed.

Google on the phrase "creative destruction" and its economic results for a bit. Not altogether a bad thing, is it?

The only thing that's "going down" is the immense and costly establishment that is Big Government, which must not be confused with "this country." Small Government is our salvation, governmentwise. Knowing this is why I'm a libertarian, and not getting this is why you're not a libertarian. Yet. (I do think your every post shows your profound and wide-ranging ignorance, though. You're a leftist through not knowing any better. So far, anyway. I hope the things you may discover both here and in living adult life for a few years will fix it.)

We mean to recover the United States from its present socialist aberration. We don't know how many years it will take to repair the damage Obama and the Democrats are plunging madly to accomplish before the nation returns to its senses.
xoxoxoBruce • Jul 1, 2009 1:33 am
Poor California, they are going to go bust just like New York City did. Oh, wait, NYC survived, didn't they.

How much of that $1.7 trillion is Chinese crap passing through to walmart?
How much of that budget is spent supporting and catering to illegals?
When the income drops, ya gotta stop spending... duh.

Where's San Andreas when you need 'em?
slang • Jul 1, 2009 3:59 am
sugarpop;578799 wrote:
Wow. I am just amazed at how some people seem to want this country to go down.


They will never change those stupid policies that are causing their problems if we bail them out now...and then 6 months from now... and then again.

There will be pain, there will be blood but they will rebuild more sensibly.

[snarky]Oh, and[/snarky]......looks like someone got handed their ass in a plastic bag for this argument, eh? :)



Perry Winkle;578803 wrote:
Rewarding failure is the road to ruin, as we're now demonstrating spectacularly.


This is not something that I'd expect to see here at the cellar but it sure is nice to see.

TheMercenary;578835 wrote:
I want them to go bankrupt and issue IOU's. Just to show that their [SIZE="5"]socialist experiment failed[/SIZE].


Yes, there will be pain for all of us because of this collapse. It's likely going to affect all of us not just folks out west.

Socialism. Watch it fail. Learn from failure.

Urbane Guerrilla;578866 wrote:
The only thing that's "going down" is the immense and costly establishment that is Big Government, which must not be confused with "this country."


That's a good line UG. The US is not the government.....it's people. People like us. Gov't is not the answer to all. We have let this government run wild because we've been comfortable. That is likely to change soon if it hasn't already.

I'm just as guilty or maybe even moreso than the normal citizen. We need more localized control and more involvement. Maybe that would bring us back to reality.

xoxoxoBruce;578889 wrote:
How much of that budget is spent supporting and catering to illegals?

When the income drops, ya gotta stop spending... duh.

Where's San Andreas when you need 'em?


So many good comments here!

Maybe it's better for me not to comment. Very good thoughts Bruce.
TheMercenary • Jul 2, 2009 12:17 am
Let them move to total anarchy. I would relish it.
Bullitt • Jul 2, 2009 12:50 am
I wouldn't. My entire family lives in Southern California, I was born there and I wish to go back for good soon. Just as with many people across America, there are tons of folks in California who had no hand in this budgetary mess, my family included. So I think I'm allowed to be a bit offended when people just write off the whole state and everyone in it. "Let it burn", "Fuck em", etc. No, fuck you.
xoxoxoBruce • Jul 2, 2009 1:21 am
Didn't have a hand in it? Didn't stand by while their elected representatives went politically correct, hog wild, with unsustainable spending programs for special interests? Judging state programs by what's in it for me, rather than what's fair to everyone, and good for the fiscal health of the state? Not stopping the deluge of illegal aliens that are devouring the state?

Every state has fiscal problems this year, so we've got our own shit to worry about. We've got our own asshole politicians and misspent shortfalls to straighten out.
slang • Jul 2, 2009 5:16 am
Bullitt;579116 wrote:
I wouldn't. My entire family lives in Southern California, I was born there and I wish to go back for good soon. Just as with many people across America, there are tons of folks in California who had no hand in this budgetary mess, my family included. So I think I'm allowed to be a bit offended when people just write off the whole state and everyone in it. "Let it burn", "Fuck em", etc. No, fuck you.


Yes, I do know that there are good people there in Cali. They number in the millions if not tens of millions. I've met many reasonable people that are residents there.

Could we possibly bail those people out? Selectively? No. So what are we left with? Allowing the entire system to collapse to give reasonable people the opportunity to take control again. Bailing out the current system will only give us more of what we have seen in the past 10+ years.

Consider this. Grey Davis supposedly drove the state into fiscal chaos and was replaced by "The Governator". I honestly thought Arnold could change things there and cut the spending to sustainable levels.

That was a very silly idea, that somehow one party might be able to make a difference more than the other. What they need IMO is a complete re-org. A reboot. At that point the normal folks might be a bit more aggressive at getting things right.

So that's for the "Let them fail" side of the argument.

What do you seriously think will change with a Cali bailout? And for that matter an Indiana, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, etc bailout package?

It seems reasonable with the recent history here with the Feds that the thinking would be;

"Hey, they went along with that bullshit bailout....now let's get a bigger one"!

So, those normal people in Cali, like your family, will see hard times in the short term with a gov't failure. Most likely in ways that we've not seen in the US here in 80 years or so.

Why not prepare for the fall and take it knowing that it's going to happen. It's not a question of if but when. California, as well as many other states are completely unsustainable and completely out of control. The entire USA actually.

As for being offended, yes that's your "right" I suppose but this is the Cellar.

Do you believe that I've never been offended by what I read here? :lol:
BrianR • Jul 2, 2009 9:31 am
I had a nice long diatribe going but the crappy connection monster got it.

I'll try to get my steam back up and repost it later, hunny-do list permitting.

Suffice it to say I vote to let CA fail and pick up the pieces later.
sugarpop • Jul 2, 2009 5:51 pm
Perry Winkle;578803 wrote:
"Let" does not indicate desire. There are pragmatic benefits to letting the inevitable happen and then rebuilding.

Bailouts reward poor performance. Rewarding failure is the road to ruin, as we're now demonstrating spectacularly.


I agree. I don't think we should EVER bailout ANY company. In the situation we are in, however, not bailing out the banks would have been a complete disaster. I just think people need to be going to prison as well. Here is a link to something I watched about this recently... http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/breakingthebank/

In addition, it's fucking ridiculous that ANYONE in a failing company should be allowed to get ANY kind of a bonus. I don't give a shit if they have a contract or not.

And let's not forget, this has going on for a long time, giving people bonuses when the company loses money. We need to completely restructure the business model. But then, you know, everyone whines that we're interfering in the private sector. But the private sector isn't interested in changing. And why should they? They win, no matter what. So, we are in a viscious cycle. What to do, what to do...

We have become too complacent as a society about the corruption and greed in business and government. They get away with too much. We have privatized the profits and wealth, and socialized the debt. THAT is WRONG. The people at the top make risky choices, take home boatloads of money, then when it all goes south, they get to keep all that money while everyone else suffers. And those people knew it was going to crash. They had to. And now we are counting on those same people to get us out of this mess? AND they get to make boatloads MORE money in the process of cleaning up a disaster THEY caused? WTF?

I do not think it was very smart to give so much money to failing automakers either. IMO, we should have given money to people who are creating the cars of the future, like Tesla Motors, and it would not have cost NEARLY as much. The guy at Tesla said a billion, just ONE billion, is SO much money, they could do a LOT with it. But GM needs 30 billion MORE, in addition to what they have already gotten? I really don't see the justification in giving ANY company more than what it is actually worth. And I believe GM, at the time we gave them the first injection of money, was valued at about $1 billion. WTF?

We should have also spent the money of infrastructure, and creating new green tech companies, stuff like that. I believe this administration has handled the situation VERY POORLY.
sugarpop • Jul 2, 2009 5:55 pm
Urbane Guerrilla;578866 wrote:
We don't, Sugarpop -- but that you hold this view of it tells me your thinking is by no means as unchained from hard leftism as you've in the past claimed.

Google on the phrase "creative destruction" and its economic results for a bit. Not altogether a bad thing, is it?

The only thing that's "going down" is the immense and costly establishment that is Big Government, which must not be confused with "this country." Small Government is our salvation, governmentwise. Knowing this is why I'm a libertarian, and not getting this is why you're not a libertarian. Yet. (I do think your every post shows your profound and wide-ranging ignorance, though. You're a leftist through not knowing any better. So far, anyway. I hope the things you may discover both here and in living adult life for a few years will fix it.)

We mean to recover the United States from its present socialist aberration. We don't know how many years it will take to repair the damage Obama and the Democrats are plunging madly to accomplish before the nation returns to its senses.


Respectfully UG, I disagree. I think all you people who are SO pro-business, and think business needs absolutely NO regulation, ar the ones who are ignorant. The business model has proven over and over again that they cannot be trusted to do anything that is in the best interest of the people of this country. They only do what is in their own best interest, and that means putting money in their own pockets at the expense of everyone else.

I agree government should be smaller, but probably not in the same way you do.
Aliantha • Jul 2, 2009 6:04 pm
My state is in debt too. I don't think there's even a suggestion that the federal government should bail us out.

I think we should 'bail out' the current state government, even though the problems we're having now are mostly because of poor leadership by the previous premier who basically controlled everything and everyone in his cabinet.
sugarpop • Jul 2, 2009 6:11 pm
xoxoxoBruce;579120 wrote:
Didn't have a hand in it? Didn't stand by while their elected representatives went politically correct, hog wild, with unsustainable spending programs for special interests? Judging state programs by what's in it for me, rather than what's fair to everyone, and good for the fiscal health of the state? Not stopping the deluge of illegal aliens that are devouring the state?

Every state has fiscal problems this year, so we've got our own shit to worry about. We've got our own asshole politicians and misspent shortfalls to straighten out.


The illegal alien problem is failing because the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ISN'T PUNISHING THE CORPORATIONS/PEOPLE WHO ARE HIRING THEM. It is a failure of CAPITALISM, NOT SOCIALISM.
jinx • Jul 2, 2009 6:16 pm
Bullshit. The problem is the resources they are using, not the paychecks a few are collecting.
Aliantha • Jul 2, 2009 6:20 pm
I suppose if no one hired illegals they wouldn't come over the border so much would they?
sugarpop • Jul 2, 2009 6:23 pm
It is multisource problem, and anyone who thinks different isn't looking at the whole picture and the effects of the situation. And are you AWARE of how many BILLIONS of dollars illegal workers send back to Mexico alone (not to mention other countries) every year? The payhecks a few are collecting. That is a freaking ridiculous statement. How many millions of those jobs could someone who is here legally have right now, and not be on unemployment?

Anyone who supports business hiring illegal workers is supporting a form of slavery.
jinx • Jul 2, 2009 6:39 pm
Yes, I'm aware of the money they send back home.... tons of legal workers do the same, it's their money to do with what they want.
Business owners pay taxes to a govt that then turns around and protects illegals in the name of PC... you're surprised businesses/farms try to save a buck by hiring cheaply?

Stop them at the borders, inquire about immigration status at hospitals, schools, welfare/foodstamp office etc., eject the ones already here - and the hiring problem will be solved.
sugarpop • Jul 2, 2009 9:39 pm
There aren't enough people to stop them at the borders. The borders of this country are too huge. And the ones who are caught and sent back just turn around and come back anyway. I know someone personally whose sister is with an illegal. He has been sent back 3 or 4 times already, and he just comes back. And he has a job that pays him $35/hour under the table, so it's not like he's doing menial labor either.

The best way to fight illegal immigration is to SERIOUSLY punish those who hire them. Jail time (5 years) and serious fines ($100k+) for each and every offense. And ENFORCE IT. THAT is the way to stop it. Nothing else is going to work.
jinx • Jul 2, 2009 9:48 pm
There aren't enough people to check every business... the number of businesses in this country is huge. Entering the country illegally is a crime - ENFORCE THAT LAW.
Perry Winkle • Jul 2, 2009 10:05 pm
sugarpop;579237 wrote:
I agree. I don't think we should EVER bailout ANY company. In the situation we are in, however, not bailing out the banks would have been a complete disaster.


How is it not already a complete disaster? The bailouts are just prolonging the inevitable.

Anyway, the banks are just the tip of the iceberg. The situation in California is just a glimmer of what may happen to the entire Western world. Letting industry and banking go without bailouts may have given us more short-term pain in exchange for lessening some long-term pain.

Read up on economics. Please.

sugarpop;579241 wrote:
I think all you people who are SO pro-business, and think business needs absolutely NO regulation, ar the ones who are ignorant. The business model has proven over and over again that they cannot be trusted to do anything that is in the best interest of the people of this country. They only do what is in their own best interest, and that means putting money in their own pockets at the expense of everyone else.


Ever hear of game theory? Part of the reason the banking and finance industry imploded is because they had to work around regulations. The proportion varies depending on which expert you're listening to. Yes, they would have made some of the same mistakes but Federal regulations demonstrably incentivized unsound decisions, increasing the magnitude of the problem.

sugarpop;579247 wrote:
How many millions of those jobs could someone who is here legally have right now, and not be on unemployment?

Anyone who supports business hiring illegal workers is supporting a form of slavery.


First, those jobs would likely go empty without undocumented migrant workers. Even with increased unemployment, like we're experiencing now, those jobs would still go unfilled to a significant extent because white collar workers are not going to do them until their situation becomes most dire. Even (especially?) blue collar workers aren't going to do hard manual labor unless they have to.

Second, look at your statement from the other direction: Anyone who supports immigration restrictions is supporting a form of slavery by giving business owners incentive and a supply of exploitable labor.

Think about it. If we made it easy for all non-hostile (like no ties to terrorist organizations) immigrants to gain official status then businesses would have no incentive to favor undocumented migrants over citizens, except when it comes to suitability for the work.

sugarpop;579277 wrote:
He has been sent back 3 or 4 times already, and he just comes back. And he has a job that pays him $35/hour under the table, so it's not like he's doing menial labor either.

The best way to fight illegal immigration is to SERIOUSLY punish those who hire them.


First, that is meaningless unless you define `menial` and tell us what he does and tell us how much it costs him in lost wages when he is deported.

Second, you gotta be fucking kidding me. The easiest way to fight illegal immigration is to get rid of immigration restrictions. That is LESS work and LESS burden on the judicial system.

Incarcerating someone for 5 years costs MORE THAN THE FINE YOU PROPOSE. That's just insipid.
ZenGum • Jul 2, 2009 10:38 pm
sugarpop;579277 wrote:
There aren't enough people to stop them at the borders. .


jinx;579278 wrote:
There aren't enough people to check every business....


Well, if it is labour shortage you're worried about, there's an easy, obvious, and already common solution...



:bolt:
Perry Winkle • Jul 2, 2009 11:14 pm
ZenGum;579288 wrote:
Well, if it is labour shortage you're worried about, there's an easy, obvious, and already common solution...


Funny. Might be a conflict of interest there though. Maybe.
sugarpop • Jul 2, 2009 11:29 pm
Perry Winkle;579281 wrote:
How is it not already a complete disaster? The bailouts are just prolonging the inevitable.

Anyway, the banks are just the tip of the iceberg. The situation in California is just a glimmer of what may happen to the entire Western world. Letting industry and banking go without bailouts may have given us more short-term pain in exchange for lessening some long-term pain.

Read up on economics. Please.


As I have said other places, I did not support the bank bailout. In fact, I wrote letters and called all my reps and begged them not to support it. So I sort of agree with you on that.

Ever hear of game theory? Part of the reason the banking and finance industry imploded is because they had to work around regulations. The proportion varies depending on which expert you're listening to. Yes, they would have made some of the same mistakes but Federal regulations demonstrably incentivized unsound decisions, increasing the magnitude of the problem.


Sorry, but I just don't buy it. if that were true, what caused it the first time around in the 30s? They weren't heavily regulated back then were they?

First, those jobs would likely go empty without undocumented migrant workers. Even with increased unemployment, like we're experiencing now, those jobs would still go unfilled to a significant extent because white collar workers are not going to do them until their situation becomes most dire. Even (especially?) blue collar workers aren't going to do hard manual labor unless they have to.


Balony. The problem isn't getting people to do the jobs, the problem is getting the companies to pay a FAIR WAGE. If they paid a fair wage, the workers would be there. That is as ridiculous as Bill Gates saying they need to be able to import more IT and computer programmers/engineers, etc. There are PLENTY of those people already here. My cousin lost her job after the .com boom, and it took her over a year to find another job. Now she works for the IRS. She is plenty qualified to work for microshit though. Her sister is VP there.

Second, look at your statement from the other direction: Anyone who supports immigration restrictions is supporting a form of slavery by giving business owners incentive and a supply of exploitable labor.

Think about it. If we made it easy for all non-hostile (like no ties to terrorist organizations) immigrants to gain official status then businesses would have no incentive to favor undocumented migrants over citizens, except when it comes to suitability for the work.


Let me make my position clear. I think people should be able to live and work wherever they want. I think there should be a world standard for environmental issues, and work standards and ethics, and pay scales. I do not believe we should have borders, ANYWHERE. Since we do, however, it only makes sense to provide for the people who are legal citizens of THIS country first.

First, that is meaningless unless you define `menial` and tell us what he does and tell us how much it costs him in lost wages when he is deported.


He works in construction. I'm not exactly sure what his job title is or exactly what he does.

Second, you gotta be fucking kidding me. The easiest way to fight illegal immigration is to get rid of immigration restrictions. That is LESS work and LESS burden on the judicial system.


see above response.

Incarcerating someone for 5 years costs MORE THAN THE FINE YOU PROPOSE. That's just insipid.


So make them pay for their own incarceration as well. The point is, most of those executives will not wish to go to jail. If they KNEW they would not only pay a hefty fine, but also risk going to prison for 5 years PER offense, they might think twice before hiring illegals.

Also, you have to take into consideration that they never hire just one illegal, they hire many. So the fine would be much bigger than $100,000, and the prison sentence would much longer. (how much does it cost to incarcerate someone for a year?)
slang • Jul 3, 2009 4:41 am
Perry Winkle;579281 wrote:
Anyway, the banks are just the tip of the iceberg. The situation in California is just a glimmer of what may happen to the entire Western world.


I completely agree.

A world wide reboot seems possible.
Perry Winkle • Jul 3, 2009 8:39 am
slang;579347 wrote:

A world wide reboot seems possible.


I don't like the word reboot. It implies everything stopping and restarting. I don't think this will happen. There has never in recorded history been a time when all corporate entities (including governments, of course) have ceased functioning and all commerce has dried up. Mercury is too powerful a voice in the hearts of man.

Some institutions will topple completely and be rebuilt on new footings. Others will be radically restructured from the inside out. Some institutions, like venture capital, will evolve like they always have.
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 7, 2009 2:07 am
Aliantha;579246 wrote:
I suppose if no one hired illegals they wouldn't come over the border so much would they?


Which is the case; the illegal influx is down in proportion to the dip in the economy and likewise the dip in hiring. By no means is it enough to wipe the problem out, but then really the United States doesn't have an immigration problem so much as other countries have a middle class problem: they have to generate one, and how are they going to do it? If the countries we have an immigration problem from were to grow middle classes large enough to be visible without magnification, we'd stop having much of a situation with people trying to break in to the place to partake of its opportunties.

I can't name another country that suffers from this problem, let alone the problem on this dozen-million-people scale.
xoxoxoBruce • Jul 7, 2009 2:11 am
The EU is having the same problem, remember Paris burning?
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 7, 2009 2:12 am
Hmmm.
TheMercenary • Jul 7, 2009 9:45 am
Originally Posted by Perry Winkle
Anyway, the banks are just the tip of the iceberg. The situation in California is just a glimmer of what may happen to the entire Western world.
Actually what is happening in Calif is a perfect example of what happens when a government goes hog wild spending money they do not have. It is a microexample of what is starting to happen at the Federal level now.
sugarpop • Jul 7, 2009 7:27 pm
Urbane Guerrilla;580006 wrote:
Which is the case; the illegal influx is down in proportion to the dip in the economy and likewise the dip in hiring. By no means is it enough to wipe the problem out, but then really the United States doesn't have an immigration problem so much as other countries have a middle class problem: they have to generate one, and how are they going to do it? If the countries we have an immigration problem from were to grow middle classes large enough to be visible without magnification, we'd stop having much of a situation with people trying to break in to the place to partake of its opportunties.

I can't name another country that suffers from this problem, let alone the problem on this dozen-million-people scale.


I agree. And NAFTA was supposed to address that problem, but instead it created an even bigger problem with illegal immigration, which is why I believe there should be a WORLD STANDARD for environmental issues, and work standards and ethics, and pay scales. IF there was a world standard, then corporations would not be able to go to a third world country and pollute the crap out of their environoment, or use slave labor in order to line their pockets. Since globalization is a done deal, we really need to start focusing on how to create a more balanced, fair, sustainable future for ALL people.
TheMercenary • Jul 7, 2009 9:58 pm
Basically we are going to be totally fucked by the Demoncrats who are now in control of Congress and are totally responsible for our fiscal future.
Glinda • Jul 7, 2009 10:34 pm
Yeah, because we were effin FLUSH under BushCo, et al. :eyebrow:
TheMercenary • Jul 8, 2009 8:45 am
Hardly. But that is the past and something for the history books. You should be more concerned with what is going on now.
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 12, 2009 1:04 am
sugarpop;580138 wrote:
I agree. And NAFTA was supposed to address that problem, but instead it created an even bigger problem with illegal immigration, which is why I believe there should be a WORLD STANDARD for environmental issues, and work standards and ethics, and pay scales.


You have an astonishing degree of faith in extremes of big government. Time and experience will completely cure this. The world does not work like that. See "people ruin everything" as more than something on a T-shirt but a basis for an active working principle of what nations and politics can do, and what they simply can't.

IF there was a world standard, then corporations would not be able to go to a third world country and pollute the crap out of their environoment, or use slave labor in order to line their pockets. Since globalization is a done deal, we really need to start focusing on how to create a more balanced, fair, sustainable future for ALL people.


Economically quite ignorant. Inequalities in distribution of income are simply the natural outcome of human nature and fortune. "Equality Of Result" is less Socialism's Utopian goal than it is the reason Socialism fails and will always fail. Socialism is a faithless and impoverished bitch, and only the slow of mind ever put their faith in her.

I don't. Guess I'm just not slow enough between the ears.

When you discover that a "balanced, fair, sustainable future for ALL" is not only readily, but actually most, possible under capitalism, not under the bureaucratic approach socialism must take (Was there ever a Socialist economy that was "sustainable"? They have fallen, been abandoned, and so forth.), then you are inoculated against one of the great Lies of the Left. Until that happy day, your thinking is so unrealistic and anti-wealth as to verge on pathological. See, the Lie of the Left contends that wealth is zero-sum -- it is not, not on a planetary scale at any rate -- and that success must equal cheating, which is simply boneheaded. There is nothing in Capitalism that requires cheating anybody. You're clearly unaware that you can practice capitalism according to scrupulous ethics and do damned well in the process. Put that to the test if you think I'm talking through my hat, I dare you!

Since my thinking diverges so far from yours, it sounds like my thinking is both more adult and saner, doesn't it?
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 12, 2009 1:12 am
Glinda;580201 wrote:
Yeah, because we were effin FLUSH under BushCo, et al. :eyebrow:


Inherited a recession in 2000, not so? Recovered from same.

Inherited a recession in 1982 also. Recovered, and engendered a prolonged boom.

Republicans both times, btw, not that I think party has much to do with it. Maintaining an environment where profitability is both easy enough and reliably expected is the secret. No, I don't think you can honestly plead either poverty or even straitened circumstances attributable to anything but decisions you made. Not then, at any rate.

Now the story may turn out differently. What Obama's ideas will give us is an inflation cycle like the 1970s, which some few writing on this board are too young to remember, and apparently not sufficiently educated to know. Otherwise, you would have zero enthusiasm for the Democrats' inventing a couple trillions out of, well, nothing really.
xoxoxoBruce • Jul 12, 2009 4:46 am
SURPLUS.
spudcon • Jul 12, 2009 10:42 pm
xoxoxoBruce;581011 wrote:
SURPLUS.

Surplus what?
xoxoxoBruce • Jul 12, 2009 11:51 pm
The surplus Bush took office with.
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 13, 2009 12:49 am
What surplus? Responsible people never found any. Irresponsible ones did claim one existed. Or that one would emerge any year now. To the rest of us, it looked like smoke and mirror tricks.

I have never heard of a balanced Federal budget since 1969. Yeah, I'm that old.
sugarpop • Jul 13, 2009 10:34 am
Urbane Guerrilla;580994 wrote:
You have an astonishing degree of faith in extremes of big government. Time and experience will completely cure this. The world does not work like that. See "people ruin everything" as more than something on a T-shirt but a basis for an active working principle of what nations and politics can do, and what they simply can't.


Why then do you have so much faith in corporations? Don't people run those as well? And we see where it's gotten us when we allow them to just do whatever they want. I would put faith in the government over unregulated business any day.

Economically quite ignorant. Inequalities in distribution of income are simply the natural outcome of human nature and fortune. "Equality Of Result" is less Socialism's Utopian goal than it is the reason Socialism fails and will always fail. Socialism is a faithless and impoverished bitch, and only the slow of mind ever put their faith in her.

I don't. Guess I'm just not slow enough between the ears.

When you discover that a "balanced, fair, sustainable future for ALL" is not only readily, but actually most, possible under capitalism, not under the bureaucratic approach socialism must take (Was there ever a Socialist economy that was "sustainable"? They have fallen, been abandoned, and so forth.), then you are inoculated against one of the great Lies of the Left. Until that happy day, your thinking is so unrealistic and anti-wealth as to verge on pathological. See, the Lie of the Left contends that wealth is zero-sum -- it is not, not on a planetary scale at any rate -- and that success must equal cheating, which is simply boneheaded. There is nothing in Capitalism that requires cheating anybody. You're clearly unaware that you can practice capitalism according to scrupulous ethics and do damned well in the process. Put that to the test if you think I'm talking through my hat, I dare you!

Since my thinking diverges so far from yours, it sounds like my thinking is both more adult and saner, doesn't it?


Since when did I ever say everyone should earn the same amount? Of course there will always be inequalities in wealth distribution, the problem I have is the SIZE of the inequality. It never ceases to amaze me how people can argue against a fair and living wage for the masses of people, while at the same time arguing why it is fair for top executives to earn obscene amounts of money, many of which really don't deserve it.

While we're on this subject, you really should check out Bill Moyers most recent episode on PBS. He interviews an insider from the health insurance industry. Honestly, if you are pissed off after watching that, something is seriously wrong with you.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/index-flash.html
sugarpop • Jul 13, 2009 10:37 am
Urbane Guerrilla;580998 wrote:
Inherited a recession in 2000, not so? Recovered from same.

Inherited a recession in 1982 also. Recovered, and engendered a prolonged boom.

Republicans both times, btw, not that I think party has much to do with it. Maintaining an environment where profitability is both easy enough and reliably expected is the secret. No, I don't think you can honestly plead either poverty or even straitened circumstances attributable to anything but decisions you made. Not then, at any rate.

Now the story may turn out differently. What Obama's ideas will give us is an inflation cycle like the 1970s, which some few writing on this board are too young to remember, and apparently not sufficiently educated to know. Otherwise, you would have zero enthusiasm for the Democrats' inventing a couple trillions out of, well, nothing really.


Those recessions were quite different from what Obama inherited. We were on the verge of a complete and total collapse of the financial system. We were on the verge of another Great Depression. And we do not yet know what effect the stimulus and other actions Obama has taken will have. It is too soon to tell.
sugarpop • Jul 13, 2009 10:39 am
Urbane Guerrilla;581134 wrote:
What surplus? Responsible people never found any. Irresponsible ones did claim one existed. Or that one would emerge any year now. To the rest of us, it looked like smoke and mirror tricks.

I have never heard of a balanced Federal budget since 1969. Yeah, I'm that old.


:rolleyes:
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 14, 2009 5:58 am
sugarpop;581175 wrote:
Why then do you have so much faith in corporations? Don't people run those as well? And we see where it's gotten us when we allow them to just do whatever they want. I would put faith in the government over unregulated business any day.


Why? Two things in particular give me my faith in business: experience with the government and experience of socialism. I've seen what socialism does to peoples, in Europe and to a small extent, in Africa. Give me capitalism any time; at least most of the people behave like adults. And of course there's all the news all the time about the failings of this or that socialistic nanny-government program here at home.

Your assumption that business must do evil just from being business is not borne out in my experience, and it is also an indication that you have no business experience whatsoever. I've a larger body of data to work with than you do.

I am pleased you're finding your way to an agreement that "people ruin everything" indeed. Though I don't think you quite grasp everything I'm saying there yet. Good job so far, though. Chew on it some more and see what juice trickles.

I'm not particularly after unregulated business, but it is very easy to so overregulate business as to make it uncompetitive, and at that juncture business shrivels -- and then you have North Korean standards of living. Unless you can repair the damage wrought by too much administrative overhead, which is what overregulation is. The more thoroughly you avoid overregulation, the lower the cost of doing business and thereby generating real wealth, and all the more of it as well.

The government is and always shall be part of the administrative overhead, and its function in the economy is emphatically not to provide either goods or services, but to provide sufficient stability for goods and services to be provided by those making it their business to do so. If you want to call that a service, that's fair enough. Government functions are there to handle tasks a society deems needful, but which no one has ever found a way to be profitable doing. Largely, these functions have a coercive element somewhere in them, and at bottom, that's never a moneymaker -- and morally, it should not be, to avoid setting society's enforcers and guardians at the throats of the economic producers. That's the fundamental moral rationale for taxation, and has been since at least the Bronze Age. In prehistory, it's likely, but unproven. It's hard to reconstruct a tax structure if nobody invented writing to keep track.

But government lacks, because of taxation, the bottom-line mechanism of profit for keeping score on how well it uses its revenue in performing its tasks. If a business does this badly, it goes bankrupt and fails. Governments simply charge more and continue -- without permitting the option of not paying the increased charges. Governments fail by being overthrown, not by going out of business. Survivors of the resulting transition period get the chance to reset -- but the cost is often very great, in lost economic activity and/or destruction both material and human.

Here's my simile: the economy is like the body of an eland or a bighorn sheep, while the government is like their horns: the horns are useful in defense and even propagation of the organism, but they levy a cost upon the organism to create them. Nonetheless, the organism lives better for having grown the horns.

Since when did I ever say everyone should earn the same amount?


You believe this implicitly, if not quite completely. If you did not, your posts would sound more like mine. A person's philosophy, her idea of "the way things ought to be" causes certain ideas to be expressed and held, and others to be rejected. It is clear from your posts and your arguments what ideas and ideals you hold to, just as it is clear from mine what ideas and ideals I hold to. As you noted earlier and elsewhere, there's a pretty wide difference.


Of course there will always be inequalities in wealth distribution, the problem I have is the SIZE of the inequality.


Good God. Why? Should the peaks of talent and luck and pluck not be rewarded fully? Should not the nadirs of these also receive their merited recompenses? This "leveller" attitude is Socialism's least fair idea, and it's a real stinker through pretending to be its most fair. "Equality of Result" whether you do well or ill is unnatural -- and it cannot help but forbid doing well.

That is not merely bad; it is profoundly insane. Only the mad forbid doing well. (There are people here who insist I'm nuts.)

It never ceases to amaze me how people can argue against a fair and living wage for the masses of people, while at the same time arguing why it is fair for top executives to earn obscene amounts of money, many of which really don't deserve it.


Try being an executive with the luck and the smarts to steer a moneymaking endeavor on a path that actually makes money, generates wealth. It's also called "being the boss." (You don't seem to be thinking of yourself in that way. But to understand this it is important that you do.) Being rich frankly isn't disgusting, nor is being rewarded as your due: this is what bonuses are truly for -- if you make greater profits for your company, you take home a personal share of this increase. This is the most direct and powerful indication that you are personally doing something right. Bonus checks of six or seven figures are merely a sign that this is happening on a large scale -- and often with a correspondingly large risk. Get it wrong and one way or another, you're out of work. High risk, high reward; nothing unfair or obscene in that, is there? The people who can actually do this sort of thing successfully are notably thin on the ground, but may be grown and developed in their fields. The people who want it done reliably -- well, guess what kind of demand there is for this sort of thing. There's a lot of perfectly good coal around, but how about those diamonds?

To claim that somebody doesn't want a "fair and living wage" for anyone is the language of class-war and resentment, and I am suspicious of it. It is mainly employed by capital-S Socialists and others who are failures at capitalism and business, resent being failures, and are sure that if only the world's rules could be changed, they'd come out on top where they believe they deserve to be. So they wank around with rule-sets that fly in the face of true human nature, like communism, fascism, and socialism, singly and in combination. Somehow, these sickly people -- you can see their sick souls peering out of their eyes sometimes -- figure that the world will get all better if they repeat the actions of the revolutionary soviets and the aggrandized State of the fascists.

The twentieth century proved these bozos are all wet. Proved it, and paid for it, in blood as well as money. Blood spilled -- hundreds of millions of lives gone, snuffed -- and money, well, burnt.

The young people should take the lesson from this history. Don't allow large government. Don't fund it, don't give it a base in law or custom.

While we're on this subject, you really should check out Bill Moyers most recent episode on PBS.


Ah yes, PBS. An entity that does not turn a profit and is subsidized by tax dollars, including the tax-dollar mechanism of tax-deductible donation. Its economic situation colors more than its production values; it colors its worldview also. Economics has a force to it like gravity. Practically nothing escapes it in the end.

It's government-operated TV. There is a certain stultification of the entire product because of this, a savor that is very distinctive when you compare it to television companies that aren't a government enterprise. Government-controlled communications and media have a distinctive officially-vetted style to them, and it's something that makes you wonder just what you'd be reading if it weren't officially passed as acceptable. Compare also the average BBC program to the average American one -- not the peak achievements of either, but the run-of-the-mill. You find yourself with an impression of ploddingness from the Beeb. Official officiousness is a living death for entertainment. Remember network Standards and Practices on our side of the pond? That PC-think absolutely ruined Saturday morning and children's drama until the Standards and Practices jobs were eliminated.

He interviews an insider from the health insurance industry. Honestly, if you are [sic] pissed off after watching that, something is seriously wrong with you.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/index-flash.html


Full disclosure: my health benefits are Federal, which leaves me beyond the reach of the industry, so I am a bit remote from the worst such things could do to affect me. But that doesn't mean I am wholly off the grid or own my own island.
Shawnee123 • Jul 14, 2009 11:38 am
He spoke. And drank rapidly a glass of water

[COLOR="Gray"] “next to of course god america i
love you land of the pilgrims’ and so forth oh
say can you see by the dawn’s early my
country tis of centuries come and go
and are no more what of it we should worry
in every language even deafanddumb
thy sons acclaim your glorious name by gorry
by jingo by gee by gosh by gum
why talk of beauty what could be more beaut-
iful than these heroic happy dead
who rushed like lions to the roaring slaughter
they did not stop to think they died instead
then shall the voice of liberty be mute?”

He spoke. And drank rapidly a glass of water

-e. e. cummings[/COLOR]
sugarpop • Jul 15, 2009 5:15 pm
UG, please stop thinking you know what is in my mind. You don't. You have NO CLUE what I am about, and that last post of yours proves it.
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 17, 2009 2:56 am
My dear girl, I read your posts. What is in your posts is in your mind; what you write is my clue, and the evidence under consideration. Have you never noticed you never prove nor even try and show that what is in your mind is any different from what is in your posts? No. Never. Not once.

You are as much what you write as I am what I write, Sugarpop.

So kindly give it a rest; you are unpersuasive. And you have no cogent counterargument; I refuse to make you the issue.
Urbane Guerrilla • Jul 18, 2009 12:43 am
You're thinking, I suppose, "I don't have any class hatreds. I'm not conscious of any annoyance except at this UG guy. What is this peckerhead on about?"

Well, I know the language and the philosophy of class resentment. You have been so immersed in a class-resentment philosophical milieu during your short life that you think believing it's wrong to be too wealthy is right and normal.

It's not.

It is a tactic of the socialists, the fascists, and all the other leftists of every single available description to foster resentment of those more successful than their constituents.

And like most things Left, it is also Crap. It fueled the Russian Revolution, and made Mao Tse Tung feel needed -- and inspired the Great Leap Forward (made a lot of forward progress into graves, what with malnutrition, starvation, and a general Communist Chinese war on science) and the Cultural Revolution (which may constitute evidence that Chairman Mao had gone insane, and which lost a generation of economic and intellectual development for China) which had the Beijing government assigning people to careers as cooks, for Pete's sake. Grandiose micromanagement, and everybody gets an equal share of the misery.

In imitation of the Communists, the Fascists busily nationalized industries and ran command economies -- which really aren't economies at all. They are instead a symptom of economic illiteracy. A growing economy didn't happen, to speak of, in Spain until Franco was replaced -- and starting from a low, longtime-fascist baseline meant Spain was cheap for years after. The followers of Marx essentially seemed to pretend markets didn't exist, and the followers of National rather than International Socialism didn't quite think of going quite that far. The fascists didn't think an awful lot. The Communists tried to utilize the best brains, but they somehow never managed to pick the best ideas.

You write the words you do because you have certain values. They inform the thoughts you think, and hence the words you post. You could hardly post otherwise -- not and actually carry it off. I write the words I do because I have better values yet, and thus from time to time have better thoughts. So it's hardly difficult, nor at all illegitimate, to grasp yours.

If the best you can say is, "That is not what I mean," then how about trying to write what you do mean? Or ought you to reconsider in depth just what it is you're going to mean from now on?