North Korea fires missles
Not as sophisicated as those of the USA or other strong military countries, but they are buying their technology somewhere.
A cry for attention? Do they plan to hold the west to ransom for not going further?
From another source: "Dubya shouldnt' do anything but tell the Chinese to rein in their chihuahua. China is the 800 pound gorilla here. Kim Il is nucking futz and needs a retroactive abortion."
Do you figure this will go anywhere more serious? Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, N. Korea.
What do you think?
Let's hope to hell we don't do anything about it. I've often heard criticism of the president for ignoring N. Korea in favor of Iraq. THIS IS A BAD THING? It may aggravate the situation to ignore it, but I sincerely hope the next administration is the one to deal with N. Korea. Preferably an administration that doesn't kick all the Generals out of the room when they're planning a freaking war (Someone actually must have thought, "What could possibly go wrong? How hard can war be? We don' need no stinkin' Generals").
Hopefully N. Korea is just being its usual belligerent self. War would be bad there (LOTS of civilians would die. I mean LOTS. Seven figures.) What we need in Korea is a whup-ass diplomat and international backing. The problem with any sort of military conflict is, if we don't disable a lot of their military very quickly, Seoul is gone. Like, poof. And now that they have ICBM's and nukes? Yup. Ignore 'em until we have a savvy admin., keep plugging away with diplomacy of all kinds, keep the nukes on standby as a last ditch option in case Kim Il gets an itchy trigger finger. Tactical nukes, people, not strategic. I wouldn't even advocate that if it wasn't for the population of South Korea that was at risk.
Although I suppose we could always just sell South Korea to 'em. It wouldn't be the first time. And it would save lives. Capitalism in Action, heh.
Last I'd heard, China had lost much of its influence over N. Korea.
Instapundit links to this
Strategypage article which says
While everyone's attention was focused on North Korean missiles, the real story is the North Korean economy. It continues to fall apart, and more North Koreans are unhappy about that. Worse yet, more North Koreans are finding out how badly they have been screwed by their leaders. Meanwhile, North Korean officials engage in even more bizarre behavior. For example, food and fuel supplies sent to North Korea have been halted, not to force North Korea to stop missile tests or participate in peace talks, but to return the Chinese trains the aid was carried in on. In the last few weeks, the North Koreans have just kept the trains, sending the Chinese crews back across the border. North Korea just ignores Chinese demands that the trains be returned, and insists that the trains are part of the aid program. It's no secret that North Korean railroad stock is falling apart, after decades of poor maintenance and not much new equipment. Stealing Chinese trains is a typical loony-tune North Korean solution to the problem. If the North Koreans appear to make no sense, that's because they don't. Put simply, when their unworkable economic policies don't work, the North Koreans just conjure up new, and equally unworkable, plans. The Chinese have tried to talk the North Koreans out of these pointless fantasies, and for their trouble they have their trains stolen. How do you negotiate under these conditions? No one knows.
I bet the US position is to do as little as possible, drag everything out.
It's not our problem. It's Japan's, China's, South Korea's. Japan is looking for a UNSC resolution denouncing the tests. This is the Team America World Police solution, telling them if they do it again they will be sent another nasty letter. No military solution here, the best approach is to wait it out as long as possible until the country dies a natural death.
Ah, it feels good to be at
bravo-plus, again.
Ah, it feels good to be at bravo-plus, again.
You'll note that that only referrs to the alert level for the site physical security at NORAD. Doesn't have anything to do with the alert level *of* NORAD...it's not a DEFCON or an EMERGCON. If you don't live at NORAD (like SG-1 does) it doesn't affect you at all.
[QUOTE=Undertoad]It's not our problem. It's Japan's, China's, South Korea's. QUOTE]
I thought our treaty with Japan included defending them against hostile nations. I'm pretty sure we have an agreement with South Korea to do the same, although I don't know how formal it is- I know during WWII
we pledged to defend their sovereignty once they were freed from the Japanese. Or something like that. 'Course, you could say North Korea wasn't in existence then, so that doesn't count, but that's a little shady.
And really, if we don't defend South Korea, it would fall to the North overnight; do we really want lil' Kimmie to have access to the South's resources? Won't it just bite us in the ass if they start really screwing with Japan, and we have to deal with it then?
it's not a DEFCON or an EMERGCON.
I was wondering about this, yesterday -- is the homeland security color chart a direct reflection of the DEFCON level?
I really enjoyed
this simple solution to the DPRK missile problem:
Invite him over for face-to-face talks about the stuff that matters and sweeten the diplomacy with a guided tour of Universal Studios, lunch with Stephen Spielberg and a life-long subscription to Netflix and Blockbusters.
The missile crisis will be over and North Korea will become a fabulous location for Mission Impossible 4.
...or maybe I just really enjoyed the visual of Kim Jong-il throwing a bowl of kimchi at a plasma TV in anger on the evening of the 4th.
That was just KJI's way of saying "Happy Fourth of July!"
Thanks, buddy - we love you too.
We defend those areas but with China's involvement, the last thing the world needs is another stupid proxy war. The news channels are all scary-like but the truth is, the missile failed (or, much less likely,
was caused to fail [link: animation video of missile intercept at 60 seconds]) and hopefully our subs will be collecting the missile pieces so the good guys will know what happened and the bad guys won't.
The news channels are all scary-like but the truth is, the missile failed (or, much less likely, was caused to fail
Which goes right back to asking - have you first put yourself into the perspective of the various players in N Korea? Do you understand why S Koreans now consider America a greater threat to peace? Why would they cause missiles to fail? It is a likely scenario and a rather interestingly insightful comment from UT.
Why did they fuel that rocket last week when it had to be launched in two day or eat itself? Oh. Maybe they were going through the steps repeatedly so that everyone knew what was coming. Maybe the purpose was attention? Why would they do that if they wanted to develop offensive weapons? Or maybe N Korea is trying to address the same problem that causes so many S Koreans worry. Southerners are not worried about the North. If you are thinking long term, then a first concept in your mind is, "How will N Korea merge with S Korea just like the Germanys?" "How will it be done when entire generations of N Koreans don't even have knowledge of the world - a problem that Germany did not have?"
Did you ask yourself those questions - or even consider them? If you are thinking 'them verses us', then you have no idea what those missile launches may be about.
I suggest a review this web site in about 3 hours for informaton on their 5 July broadcast to better appreciate the so many perspectives. Appreciate that if you have a belligerent attitude of N Korean missile launches, then you don't understand what is happening AND don't understand the attitudes of both S Korea and Japan:
corrected URL
Radio Times of 5 Jul 2006
To appreicate why most S Koreans consider the US a greater threat to their objectives, only then are you ready to appreciate why N Korea may be launching so many missiles. But it means you also understand both North and South Korean objectives. Again, it begs you to learn about and take on so many perspectives in a very complex political discussion. A discusson nearly terminated when someone threw a grenade in the room: "Axis of Evil".
Why would they cause them to fail? It is a likely scenario.
How likely?
How likely?
Not very. But it is an interesting possibility due to what N Korea's European educated leader must do to bring his country back into the world.
I'm sure I'm overlooking something, but isn't a North Korean ICBM just *begging* for the US to prove its missle defense technology? Not that we have any that works, but I'm just sayin...
That kind of echoes something I'd heard from a friend who had spent several years in S. Korea and put some effort into understanding the situation. It's been a few years, but he said something about the N. Koreans having a very odd negotiating process, and that there was almost no chance that N. Korea would actually start an armed conflict as it would conflict with their goals. This seems very odd for a nation that pours all of its resources into it's military, but... he also said that the Bush admin showed no signs of understanding or respecting the complex relationship between the U.S. and North Korea, and that diplomatic achievements and understandings made during previous admin's were pretty much erased. This seems like a dangerous situation.
Standby, put someone in there who knows what N. Korea's all about, and defend if necessary. From your account, tw, that last option will not be necessary; my earlier, somewhat unclear point was that if by some crazy chance war does break out, the whole peninsula is screwed. Regardless of what N. Korea's true intentions are, what really matters is how they're going to be interpreted by others in power. Which brings me back to, Pres. Bush just leaving the damned situation alone. I don't know. Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit; maybe he has more savvy advisers than he did six years ago. But if he does pick the insane route, i.e. starting a fight with N. Korea, I'm hoping they let the generals into the war room this time- not that it's going to matter much.
I'm sure I'm overlooking something, but isn't a North Korean ICBM just *begging* for the US to prove its missle defense technology?
Maybe it did.
If it did, they wouldn't say it worked, if it went undetected.
From what I've heard it's not ready yet.
Unlikly a war with North Korea 'cause that could put walmart out of business. ;)
I'm sure I'm overlooking something, but isn't a North Korean ICBM just *begging* for the US to prove its missle defense technology?
Silly. The US has a paper missile defense system that means we need not waste money on schools. It is nonsense. And then what are we defending from. Only worse case speculation says that missile can reach some remote parts of Alaska. So what? Well it makes those N Korean extremists happy while Kim Jung Il desperately tries to get the world to engage N Korea - to help him get N Koreans to understand a basic fact - the world is not trying to destroy N Korea.
But here in America where Cheney still has a big penis, cold war mentality, we are even building a missile defense system that does not work AND that our best experts say cannot work.
More big penis reasoning by leaders who see enemies everywhere.
I bet the US position is to do as little as possible, drag everything out.
We have to because the real problem here probably isn't nukes or missiles. Isn't the real problem all that functional conventional hardware pointed South?
Even world events apply to Korea. For example, how did the US respond to Iran?
How to shake up American who don't take N Korea seriously? Carter did. Albright did. But instead our current leadership promotes N Korean extremists rather then engage N Korean intelligent leaders - centrists - the moderates. It’s called a big penis mentality that too often leads only to war.
N Korea has Cheney type (veins hanging from the lips) extremists AND others who know that will only make N Korea even worse. How do you get those big penis vein eaters to become part of the world?
What does S Korea (and N Korean moderates) want? If your perspective is sound bytes and charactures, then you have not a clue and probably have a big penis brain. Meanwhile, those who deal with Kim Jung Il recognize him as a sophisticated and intelligent man in a country full of 'mad man' leaders. You tell me how he takes his country into the world?
Well Jimmy Carter got the Nobel Prize for finding a perfect solution - that was supported by S Korea and Japan - and then subverted by an intelligent George Jr. George Jr did to the N Korean solution what he also did the Oslo Accords.
The only reason why N Korea is not stepping into becoming part of the world is US - in particular Cheney who does not even understand his 'big penis' mentality also may be recreating a second cold war with Russia. I should not have to explain that either because it is acknowledged and worried about by intelligent scholars.
How to solve two problems with one action. It is no coincidence that they would launch three types of missiles when the shuttle was launched, on 4 July, AND when George Jr is isolating N Korea rather than engaging it. First the big penis extremists in N Korea were appeased because they could show off the size of their penis. At the same time, intelligent N Korean leaders now have Americans - even your - attention. That is what they want. Otherwise the big penis extremists in N Korea entrench the country in to the inevitable - nuclear war.
Are you listening or does you penis replace your brain? If any paragraph here confuses you, you have not been doing what good voters do - learn what is happening. Nothing here should be new to you. Are they saber rattling? Of course. Did you ask why? If you did not understand the many different perspectives from so many different Koreans; if you think for one minute that N Korea is a monolithic entity like George Jr proclaims to his mental midget supporters, then we might as well go to war right now.
Kim Jung Il has long been trying to engage the world while in a country that would rather murder him for doing that. Do you blindly believe Rush Limbaugh hype that Kim Jung Il is a madman? Then you have not a clue.
Mike Chinoy has covered North Korea for nearly two decades. If what he says in not common knowledge, then you a perfect recruit for the big penis attitude promoted by Rush Limbaugh and Cheney. There is no big monolithic 'evil' N Korea as the American mental midgets would promote. This N Korean problem is directly traceable to moderates who desperately need to integrate N Korea into the world and a S Korea that wants to start a reunification that will take over 40+ years - as wacko N Korean extremists learn how not to think like Cheney. Currently most N Koreans are routinely brainwashed in lies that the whole world wants to destroy them. What an almost impossible situation for Kim Jung Il. Made even worse by so many wacko Americans who know and yet did not even learn the many perspectives in N Korea.
My previous URL was in error. This is a one hour discussion that should be common knowledge - to have opinions about N Korea:
Radio Times of 5 Jul 2006An American friend who is into rockets wrote this...do you agree?
"No Scud Soviet designation SS-1. It works more like a WW2 V2 only more accurate. The booster carries the warhead all the way to target. Staged boosters are a different animal altogether. Its an eclusive club. To my knowledge (I'm no expert) the only countries that posess staged rockets are US, Russia, China, and France. Pakistan and India may have them. If not they probably are not far off.
Although the NK missile failed they still recieved telemetry from it. Correcting the failure could be as simple as adding a battery operated heater to a valve that froze."
"...we have systems that are designed to hit aircraft. Some can be used against a missile IF......IF it is in a position to run it down. Hitting a rocket that can travel into the upper atmosphere is another project altogether. A rocket like a scud travels in a long wide arc or in the case of more sophisticated system like our cruis missiles a flat line. A staged rocket goes almost straight up. Once high enough it can release its warhead which then free falls to its target. When its burning fuel a heat seeker can key in on it if its in position. Once past apogee its no longer burning fuel and it has a very small radar signature to track. Thats what the ballistic missile defence sheild idea was all about. Unfortunantly it was poo pood ridiculed and called Star Wars as if it were fantasy. It was only a matter of time till this genie was out of the bottle."
N Korea's European educated leader
this is false [Europeans educated leader] is false[/URL]
The official version could never admit that Kim Jong-Il was educated outside the country. Necessary for same reasons that Kim Jong-Il must be very careful in how he engages the world. Again, to admit an education outside of N Korea means extremists might just rise up and kill him. Many in N Korea are that brain washed extremist.
Meanwhile Kim Jung-Il sent his children to be educated in Switzerland - a country that Kim is said to have repeatedly visited. So yes, it is not clear that Kim was educated in Switzerland even though the claim was made long ago. A public acknowledgement of his boys educated in Switzerland is regarded by many that his children will not be permitted to succed Kim Jong-Il even though they were being groomed accordingly. Again, N Korea is that introverted. An official version could never say Kim was educated outside Korea.
Switzerland is a popular destination for all Kims. From english.chosun.com:
... sister of Kim Jong-il's recently deceased wife Ko Young-hee, defected to the United States in May 1998 with her husband, a man in his late 40s identified only as Park, through the U.S. Embassy in Switzerland.
Yes, I cannot confirm that that Kim Jong-Il was Swiss educated. Only that he and many family members travel to or get educated in Switzerland. His background is cosmopolitian even though the official version will not admit same. The Guardian in
Kim is a baby rattling the sides of a cot reports
I also remember the first confirmed sightings of his son, Kim Jong-il: not the remote beast the CIA told us about, but a young man taking holidays in Malta and picking up his first lessons in sophisticated statecraft from Dom Mintoff.
Meanwhile Kim Jong-chul, his son, has been reported with two American friends from his International Swiss school - even at a rock and roll concert in Germany. Repeated rumors say that Kim also has $4billion in Swiss bank accounts.
The point remains that Kim - unlike most of his countrymen - is cosmopolitan and quite knowledgeable of the world as was noted by Sec of State Albright after long discussions. So knowledgeable and daring as to even educate his boys in Switzerland to be groomed as future N Korean leaders. World knowledge that is unusual for N Koreans power brokers.
And again, the point is that Kim Song-Il is playing a dangerous game trying to integrate N Korea into the world. Something he must do and that his extremists will strongly oppose - as what may have happened on a train ride back from China where an explosion later leveled the N Korean town.
Bri asked "Are we secretly doing things to threaten Kim"
One aspect - maybe from tw's radio times link - is that we are shutting down the ability of overseas banks to accept the counterfeit dollars that the Norks are producing, squeezing him economically.
To my knowledge (I'm no expert) the only countries that posess staged rockets are US, Russia, China, and France. Pakistan and India may have them. If not they probably are not far off.
Japan is able to put things into orbit, so I assume that they have multiple staged rockets as well. Since they're still pretty much an unarmed nation since WWII, I'm guessing they were left out of the ICBM discussion, but if you can put something into orbit, you can make something fall down on someone else on another part of the planet.
We have to because the real problem here probably isn't nukes or missiles. Isn't the real problem all that functional conventional hardware pointed South?
That is my understanding, yes, while the nukes are an issue the US isn't really concerned with DPRK launching them, but with obliterating Seoul which is within easy shelling distance. I think this comes down to more of the worry of DPRK retaliating against South Korea if we were to try to intervene in any of their arms development and that is why we're hopeful that China will start putting more pressure on Kim.
Previous was only analysis of past history. Next look future. We had a perfect deal to buy off Kim - to give him something to engage his extremists so they will learn how introverted they were. It got Jimmy Carter the Nobel Peace Prize. And then we (ie Congress) destroyed it using rhetoric rather than logic.
Kim Jong-Il is all but begging the world to buy him out - to give him something so that he can open his country (and his extremists) to the world. But with each new weapon system, that cost becomes higher.
Jimmy Carter bought off Kim cheaply. A couple of nuclear power plants and some oil. The next deal will no longer be so inexpensive. He now has missiles that work (but probably have no accuracy - inferior guidance systems). That means cost of buying him out has become much higher.
Tell an American extremist (like Cheney) that we will buy out Kim and Cheney will instead demand war. That is the current American mentality. The cost of buying out Kim is already way too high for extremist Americans to swallow. And over time, the same price will only get higher. Right now, we could buy out Kim Jong-Il real cheap - when compared to how much more expensive that price will become.
With those missile launches, Kim is telling us what the new price will be. This is not what he wants. This is the price he must get to satisfy his extremists. And without a famine, that price is even higher.
Are you looking forward? Do you see what George Jr did to kill off that Jimmy Carter agreement AND do you understand what ignoring N Korea means in the cost of settlement? Of course, we could just continue sitting on our hands and doing nothing - and then war breaks out. Why do you think the S Koreans (and rightly so) regard American as the greater threat to peace.
That radio broadcast should have opened many eyes to the problem we have created by underming the Jimmy Carter settlement.
War is created by failures at the negotiation table. Kim Jong-Il (probably even to avoid assassination) desperately needs a deal he can sell to his extremists. With each new weapons system, that price increases immensely. When were you going to understand this? The Jimmy Carter deal was what - 10 years ago?
Full embargo.
It already exists. It only entrenches those extremists which is why they want more destructive weapons. The only solution is engagement - so that those extremists and their brain washed population learn they have been lied to about the world.
tw has all the answers, all the time.
True, it can be annoying, but I think he may be right on this one. And of course, if I think something's right, it should be national policy. That's not the way it works though, which is why I want my own nukes someday. But I think that's it's own thread.
Other than insanity, there's not much else to explain their actions.
Initiating or provoking conventional military action would be disastrous, but I don't trust this admin to realize or accept that. Maybe they do, and they're waiting for N. Korea to cross some line that will technically justify the use of unconventional weapons. After all, the States are in no danger; it's the Koreans who will pay for any madness that goes down. Well, them and all the poor bastards stationed in S. Korea. Sounds crazy, but I have no faith in the sanity of some people. Especially those hounding glory and a place in the history books.
I believe the story about shutting down the NK counterfeiters was a link in the IOtD thread with the big $100 bill.
With China shutting off aid over the stolen trains, things will get worse quickly in the NK countryside.
I think the nukes are a bargaining chip for NK when the reunification talks develop...they will eventually. The only thing lacking is a Pink Floyd Song to kick it off. :haha:
Looks like the human race is run...
With China shutting off aid over the stolen trains, ...
What is that about? Are they counterfeiting Lionel?
No, they're keeping the trains that are carrying the aid from China, claiming that the trains themselves are part of the aid package.
Some thoughts on N.K. I am following:
"In North Korea, the control by the Kim regime is so absolute that televisions and radios by law are soldered to be pre-set to approved TV stations and radio stations, with the death penalty for anyone found to have overriden them.
Just one small taste of how bad it is.
Everybody--absolutely everybody--is required to wear a pin carrying Kim's face. Also, they're required by law to smile when in public, and failure to so smile is a crime.
Pregnant women are not allowed within the city limits of Pyongyang, the North Korean capitol. Why? Because they're ugly and disturbing and should not sully the perfect image of the state there. I swear I am not making this up.
Children can be jailed for not being sufficiently happy.
I repeat: children get jailed for being insufficiently happy. Along with their parents of course. Although they're imprisoned separately for the offense, so they quite likely never see each other again.
Even Castro is not this crazy horrible. It's like something out of Madelaine L'Engle's Time Quartet books in their portrayal of how Satan works: even children and how they must play and behave is governed by the state, with the most horrible of results for those who refuse to comply.
It's not that the North Koreans are inhuman. Far from it. But they've been dehumanized. As I say, even the people under the Taliban had it bettter.
It's horrific. And I don't know any easy answers to it, but I do think there are simple ones. They mostly, in my view, start with this: find a way to kill Kim. Yes, just kill him."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Kim is a joke. He probably doesnt even know whats going on. The real power - like in the Soviet Union - is held by the oligarchs and the hidden elites who have avested interest in remaining beyond the spotlight."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Nice idea, but, as others point out, it is simply impossible to communicate with the population of NK. Plus, it would take more than communication, it would take massive deprogramming to a level that might cause insanity. Imagine the shock of reaching adult hood and being told that everything you know is wrong. I can't imagine how one would mentally process such a thing.
I saw a former NK soldier on a history channel program a few years back. He was explaining how he regularly put whole families in gas chambers and released poison gas, and watched.
He was struck by how the parents, themselves dying, puking, choking, and convulsing, still made desperate attempts to perform mouth to mouth on their own dying, puking, choking, convulsing children. But, at the time, he felt nothing for them because he truly believed, as he had been told to believe his whole life, that these were the brutal enemies of the N. Koreans. He did this all the time.
In reality, their f***in Kim Jong Il pins probably just fell off, or one of them didn't smile enough. That's a lot of brainwashing to overcome in an incredibly isolated society."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Note that Kim jong-il has a brother, Kim Pyong-il. He has a favored son, Kim Jong-chul. He also has a disfavored son, Kim jong-nam. There are even reports of over a dozen illegitimate children.
There are figureheads a-plenty to keep the machine running."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The "Happy Ending". Kim falls and another bad dictatorship doesn't take over. Let's say they reunite with SK. SK is screwed. Look at Germany and now imagine an even more oppressed civilation, in greater numbers, being absorbed by a weaker, less numerically superior nation. The GDP of SK would probably at least halve just trying to feed people who think grass soup is a meal.
And all of that is discounting what China will do. People talk about the Korean War, but partway into it it wasn't us fighting the Koreans, it was us fighting the Chinese. They like their buffer states. Look at the map of the world. We have bases in many of the 'stans. Mongolia likes us. South Korea likes us. Japan likes us. We have China surrounded and they don't really like that.
In other words, whatever happens, China is not going to just go along with a free Korea on their border. Heck, they have shown that they don't mind having a, possibly, nulear-armed, lunatic state on their border.
Killing Kim could cause chaos and most likely result in the death of millions without any good resolution.
I would say that a war between the US/South Korea (maybe Japan) and China (maybe Russia) is much more likely than a reunited Korea."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Much as he deserves it, I doubt merely removing Kim would help. The next thug in line would just take his place. Consider what Iraq would look like had we simply removed Saddam.
No, the fact is, Kim Jong Il will go on raping beautiful 15-year-olds till he's sufficiently enfeebled that someone else seizes the reins.
And that next ruler will probably be even worse."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"NK can be brought down by an economic blockade, but that isn't possible without cooperation from China, and so far China hasn't been willing to participate.
However, that may have changed, very recently. The NK government may have succeeded in doing that which American diplomacy has largely failed.
Some Chinese aid to NK has been going in by train, and the last six times NK kept the trains as well as the aid. China is demanding the trains be returned, but NK is claiming that the trains are part of the aid. Apparently the Chinese are not going to send any more until NK starts returning its empties.
The real question is the pipeline that China has been using to send in heating oil. That is NK's lifeline. If it gets cut or shut down, NK collapses in short order. China has applied pressure to NK in the past by shutting it down for a day or two, and the question is whether they'll do it now, possibly for much longer."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"China will keep NK afloat at all costs. They might slap the dog down for discipline from time to time, but NK is useful as a client state in a region that is overwhelmingly pro-US. China is indeed surrounded on the pacific seabord and NK is their ace in the hole. They will never fully sever the oil pipeline. The trains flap is a minor price for china to bear for teh strategic benefits; watch for the chinese to let the matter drop quietly. Its theater, pure and simple.
And I think that morale-wise, the NK army is indeed ripe for psychological warfare. Its not like we havent done it before; look at the 91 gulf war. but the NK army is even more pathetic in straits; their soldiers risk life and limb to stray into the DMZ looking for food (!!). Yes, soldiers so desperate that they will go fishing in the most heavily mined strip of land on earth!
it takes just one spark of anger in one breast to lead men in search of justice. remember john brown? the sepia mutiny? yes, elites tend to be the bearers of that spark, but 'tis the proles who keep the flame alight once lit. Thats the Amerian Revolution itself in a nutshell.
live free or die. how does that get translated to Korean? would make for a fine cover on a pamphlet, airdropped in by the millions on the army barracks in the dmz."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"They feed/heat the army first. If they're no longer able to feed/heat them, anything could happen.
Unfortunately, they've already proven they will let everyone else in the country starve/freeze to death first. The world does not have the will to impose that.
Sad as I am to say it, I think the NK regime will persist indefinitely, right up until the AI nanobots take over the world."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"give japan, taiwan, and sk some deterrent nukes too."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"But in the meantime, if Uncle Sam isn't prepared unilaterally to flatten Kim il-Sung's vicious and crazy kid, then just stop bleating about them. Lest this turn into another South Viet Nam, Haiti, Somalia mission of mercy and democracy. Or another Iraq, for that matter. "
North Korea is returning to multi-nation talks. Little mentioned - N Korea got what they demanded. N Korea refused to talk multi-nation and wanted bilateral talks with the US. Well the US propaganda machine quickly promoted resumption of multi-nation talks after N Korea did an atomic explosion. What US 'lying by telling half truth' purveyors forget to mention - bilateral talks were conducted elsewhere in Berlin as a pre-requisite for further multi-national discussions. From Washington Post of 8 Feb 2007:
N. Korea Nuke Talks Resume on Positive Note
The Chinese chief negotiator and host, Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, suggested there were hopes of breaking a long stalemate that has led to questions about the future of the talks, which have been grinding away since August 2003. At a formal opening session, he qualified the new round as a "fresh start" made possible by agreements reached last month in separate bilateral discussions in Berlin between U.S. and North Korean diplomats.
What will it take to move forward - to bring N Korea back into the world community? Well already the US is slowly moving back to the same agreement negotiated by Jimmy Carter one decade earlier. Same agreement destroyed by the 'big dic' diplomacy of George Jr.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a congressional hearing she was "cautiously optimistic" that there will now be solid progress "toward the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula."
But don't fool yourself. N Korea previously agreed to stop their nuclear program in exchange for oil and two nuclear reactors. Then a Republican Congress canceled those trivial oil shipments. A new deal will cost many times more now that N Korea has demonstrated an atomic explosion. American 'big dics' can dump $billions of American taxpayer money in Iraq (it probably bought all those satellite dishes so hyped as 'progress'). But same 'big dics' even cut off trivial oil shipments to N Korea as too expensive - torpedoing the Carter deal. 'Big dics' apparently only understand fraud, bribery, K-Street, and 'dictatorship masking as democracy'. 'Big dics' fear negotiations to avoid war.
In order to bring N Korea into the world - in order for Kim to buy off his 'big dic' extremists without being killed in a coup d'etat - the cost of an agreement will be significant. Unfortunately, American is dominated by 'big dic' mentalities such as Cheney and Urbane Guerrilla. Talks will probably stalemate until America elects an intelligent leader - a centrist. But that means cost of a settlement - and that settlement is absolutely necessary - will only increase as N Korean 'big dics' accomplish more nuclear advancements and gain more power within N Korea.
U.S. officials have said their intelligence indicates North Korea has accumulated enough plutonium to fuel as many as 10 nuclear weapons and its main facility, at Yongbyon, is producing more. In addition, U.S. officials have said North Korea has a separate uranium enrichment program to produce more weapons material ...
So a buyout is already very expensive and getting more expensive.
Obviously, Jimmy Carter's deal (which earned him the Nobel Prize) is looking better each year. Shame that so many who listen only to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh were not publicly mocked and hanged in effigy in 2001. So now we pay for the sins of our extremists - our 'big dics'. And that does not even include the $2 trillion for "Mission Accomplished" or that bin Laden runs free. Those too are accomplishments of 'big dics'.
What is the situation with N Korea? Mike Chinoy detailed that relationship in a one hour interview on Radio Times on 5 Jul 2006. Go to that web site for
Radio Times to select the broadcast date (5 Jul 2006). Wednesday PBS interview is the first hour.
Found this thread - seems an update was in order.
April 14, 2009 --
Nuclear watchdog asked to leave N.Korea
The International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that North Korea has asked its inspectors to leave the country. The U.S. criticized the decision and another North Korean announcement earlier in the day that it was pulling out of talks on the future of its nuclear program.
A statement on the IAEA's Web site said: "The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has today informed IAEA inspectors in the Yongbyon facility that it is immediately ceasing all cooperation with the IAEA. It has requested the removal of all containment and surveillance equipment, following which, IAEA inspectors will no longer be provided access to the facility."
It added: "The inspectors have also been asked to leave the DPRK at the earliest possible time. The DPRK also informed the IAEA that it has decided to reactivate all facilities and go ahead with the reprocessing of spent fuel."
North Korea's foreign ministry said earlier the country will quit talks aimed at disarming its nuclear weapons and strengthen nuclear capabilities, state-run media reported Tuesday.
The statement, issued via North Korean state-run media KCNA, listed reasons that the country will pull out of the so-called six-party talks.
"Now that the six-party talks have turned into a platform for infringing upon the sovereignty of the DPRK and seeking to force the DPRK to disarm itself and bring down the system in it, the DPRK will never participate in the talks any longer, nor will it be bound to any agreement of the six-party talks," KCNA said. The six-party talks -- involving China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States -- have been aimed at persuading North Korea to scrap its nuclear program.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called North Korea's decision to stop cooperating with the atomic energy panel "an unnecessary response to the legitimate statement put out of concern by the Security Council."
"Obviously we hope there will be an opportunity to discuss this, not only with our partners and allies, but also, eventually, with the North Koreans," she said.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs called North Korea's "announced threat to withdraw from the six-party talks and restart its nuclear program ... a serious step in the wrong direction."
"North Korea will not find acceptance by the international community unless it verifiably abandons its pursuit of nuclear weapons," he said. "The six-party talks offer North Korea the best path towards that acceptance through dialogue.
Found this thread - seems an update was in order.
April 14, 2009 -- Nuclear watchdog asked to leave N.Korea
It is not entirely clear that Kim is still in control. Events since his stroke imply others are now running the country. That opportunity to bring N Korea back into the world might have passed.
Among some of the strange or inconsistent events: the hot line between North and South Korea is no longer being answered on the North's side. A shutdown of that border industrial park and train service is inconsistent with Kim's previous objectives.
Who would take over, the military?
Who would take over, the military?
The military was Kim's threat. He could not just open his country to the world. That military has his father's fears and neurosis. Having said that, which military. Guaranteed: the N Korean military is not a monolithic block. Is there infighting? We know so little about this nation let alone the mindset of their military power brokers.
Iran has probably convinced some faction that this is the way to go.
This further begs the question of what China's prime objective or desired outcome of all this is. It is apparent that it is different than that of the US.
This further begs the question of what China's prime objective or desired outcome of all this is. It is apparent that it is different than that of the US.
There is not monolithic alliance between China and North Korea.
For example, then N Korea was to launch their first missile, China warned them not to saying a launch would have severe consequences. N Korea launched anyway. There were no severe consequences.
When N Korea was to launch their second missile, China did not make the same mistake again. Instead, China just remained silent. Even China does not fully understand what happens in N Korea. But China is better positioned to know more.
Even China's "severe consequences" has little influence in North Korea.
But again, the remaining question. Who really is in charge since Kim had his stroke? The 'powers that be' could be slowly replacing Kim so that N Korea does not rejoin the world. Then any attempt to avert a future war would have been lost. North Korean ignorance of the world is widespread. Such people would fear anyone who has seen the world; such as Kim and his sons. If they put their own person in power, then few alternatives may exist other than war.
Jimmy Carter’s deal was our best chance to defuse this situation. Hopefully Kim remains in power. An alternative is dire.
China warned them saying a launch would have severe consequences. N Korea launched anyway.
There were no severe consequences.
When N Korea was to launch their second missile,
China just remained silent.
Even China's "severe consequences" has little influence in North Korea.
What the heck are you talking about? What were the severe consequences?
The "
There were no severe consequences."
or the "
China just remained silent."?
Anyway -
North Korea reportedly fired two short-range missiles yesterday in a move set to heighten tensions after its latest nuclear weapons test drew global condemnation.
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to consider the options after Pyongyang’s test of a nuclear device on Monday, which some estimates said was almost as powerful as the atomic bombs that flattened Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The Security Council called the test a “clear violation” of international law and immediately began working on a resolution that could impose new sanctions on the secretive North, which has now tested two nuclear bombs in three years.
“This resolution should include new sanctions in addition to those already adopted because such behavior should have a cost and a price to pay,” Deputy French Ambassador to the UN Jean-Pierre Lacroix said.
Following the UN condemnation, North Korea launched one ground-to-air missile and one ground-to-ship missile into the sea yesterday off its eastern coast near the city of Hamhung, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported.
“Intelligence authorities are analyzing the motives for the firing,” it quoted a South Korean government source as saying, adding that each missile had a range of 130km.
Last month, Pyongyang test-fired a long-range rocket that critics say was in fact a ballistic missile, and on Monday it test-fired three short-range missiles after the nuclear blast.
Russia estimated the force of Monday’s underground nuclear explosion at up to 20 kilotonnes, far more powerful than the October 2006 test.
North Korea said the latest test would “contribute to defending the sovereignty of the country and the nation and socialism, and ensuring peace and security on the Korean peninsula and the region.”
And
here is a Q & A with Gordon Flake Executive Director, Mansfield Foundation...
An interview with Sheila A. Smith, Senior Fellow for Japan Studies from council of foreign relations.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/19480/nuclear_test_for_the_obama_administration.html?breadcrumb=%2FThanks PH. That was a very good, yet disturbing read. I don't see North Korea coming to any table or talking till they are nuclear... then what If Kim is still around ... or if not? I read that his youngest son is suspected to be the heir apparent.
Thanks PH. That was a very good, yet disturbing read. I don't see North Korea coming to any table or talking till they are nuclear... then what If Kim is still around ... or if not? I read that his youngest son is suspected to be the heir apparent.
Yes, his son seems to be expected to take over eventually.
I am not sure how to take this. Every source I've read seems to conclude that NK wants to be accepted as a nuclear power just as India was. I haven't seen anything that suggests that NK will be a direct threat to the world because of their severe lack of industrial power. They will not be able to produce a large amount of missiles so any attack SK, Japan, or anyone else would be a suicidal mission. You can never be certain though.
Another viewpoint:
http://www.defencetalk.com/north-korea-poses-no-real-threat-to-the-world-19214/One fear is that they will sell nukes. They have enough material for 6 of them, and they sure need the dough.
Yep, the same fear with Iran. It really depends on what their goals are. Since NK doesn't have the same perceived mission as Iran (no Israel to "destroy") it will be interesting to see how US policy will change. If the biggest fear is that NK will sell the technology to other groups for needed money, trade may open to NK to get them out of their poverty situation. If NK wants "acceptance" in the world community, a nuclear weapon could be their ticket. The risk is great and I personally don't think it will work but there is a possibility it will open trade and lift sanctions against them.
I've read (take with grain of salt) that they are not planning on getting rid of them at the moment but that stance can change quickly if events change.
NKorea warns of attack after SKorea joins drill
SEOUL: North Korea Wednesday blasted South Korea's decision to join a US-led anti-proliferation exercise as tantamount to a declaration of war, and threatened an attack if any of its ships are stopped.
The communist state's powerful military declared it is no longer bound by the armistice which ended the 1950-53 war on the peninsula.
http://www.defencetalk.com/nkorea-warns-of-attack-after-skorea-joins-drill-19265/
I am assuming this is just talk, supposedly NK has done this many times in the past but naval encounters between NK and SK would not be surprising.
Another source:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124339629081257563.html I am assuming this is just talk
I wouldn't. This has gone way beyond saber-rattling and my buddy who works in SK as a NK intel analyst has gone silent on me.
I bet he is one very busy man right now - Hope he is ok.
Oh, he's fine, I'm sure. He's not clandestine. I interpret his silence as an indication that we are in a very high state of military alert and all outside comm has been cut off.
Officials acknowledge that with North Korea already sanctioned to the hilt, such measures may do little more than get the regime's attention. But maybe that is the point. North Korea is known for its attention-grabbing, and some officials predict (read: wish) that a strong international reaction could be what Pyongyang needs to nudge it back to the table.
As one senior official put it, "Once we both know we have each other's attention, we can have a drink and a smoke and get back to business."
But even as the administration looks down the road at another round of six-party talks, officials are questioning the long-term viability of the exercise. Gary Samore, the president's top adviser for nonproliferation, and Hillary Clinton have both said that North Korea does not appear to want the talks to move forward.
That's the thing about talks -- they generally aren't productive when only one side is talking.
Seriously complicating matters is the health of ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and the lack of clear succession in place. Officials say that the country's internal dynamics are a large, if not the critical, component driving North Korea's actions.
It's particularly concerning because the future of the regime is one where nobody, including the Chinese, can do anything to alter the equation. In that case even the most strenuous international diplomacy may influence North Korean behavior on the margins but will have little effect on how this situation ultimately plays out.
With decades of diplomacy unable to produce a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, it begs the question of whether it is time for a fundamental overhaul of U.S. policy toward North Korea. There are serious conversations in Washington and among capitals about whether North Korea has reached a "tipping point," offering the world final proof it is intent on developing what it calls a "nuclear deterrent."
A nuclear weapon with the missile systems to deliver it would not only pose an existential threat to South Korea and Japan, officials fear it would spark an arms race in East Asia -- turning this region, which has been relatively stable for 40 years, into a much different place.
The U.S. and its allies must huddle quickly and develop a plan to prevent this alternate -- and scary -- reality.
...if possible.
To me this guy seems intent on getting the respect of being a nuclear power by the time he dies and thats not too far off apparently.
No talking is going to change that and there are really no more sanctions that will have an effect. Strap on your seatbelts - this is gonna be a rough ride.
Strap on your seatbelts - this is gonna be a rough ride.
I wouldn't be surprised if Japan and SK join in on an East Asian arm's race. They are already extremely scared of China's gaining power and wants an excuse to militarize as well.
I agree, but that is just the immediate effect - this will be further reaching than that.
This is certainly a tense situation. I have heard one talking head state that various generals in the NK Army were not sure that they would continue to support the Kim regime when the current one dies off. That could be good or it could be bad.
I don't think anyone wants to see NK collapse. Refugees would be in the hundreds of thousands and no one wants a nuclear weapon to go missing.
What the heck are you talking about? What were the severe consequences?
The "There were no severe consequences."
or the "China just remained silent."?
Read what was posted - not what you want to read. Bluntly stated - there were no severe consequences. Therefore China never made the mistake of that threat a second time.
Its looking more like Kim has lost or is losing control of NK. That is bad for all. NK extremists believe their own propaganda - that the world conspires to destroy them.
Read what was posted - not what you want to read.
I always do. Your message was lost in your writing style.
Your message was lost in your writing style.
Context was only lost in your political agenda.
Sorry as you are tommyboy, you have cornered the market on that objective. Your political agenda is as obvious as the emotions in your posts. But I did find a link for you -
Here it is
One fear is that they will sell nukes. They have enough material for 6 of them, and they sure need the dough.
North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.
Its a well set pattern: the DPRK wants something. Talks are stalled, or no-one is paying attention, because, like Britain's Got Talent is nearing the season finale.
So North Korea fires a missile over Japan. Suddenly, everyone goes "WTF?", even though South Korean and Japanese sources knew this was months in the planning. Or they test a nuke and cause some rumbling in Seoul.
The UNSC convenes, and decides to slap on some punishments to the DPRK, and restart the Six Nations talks. In the course of the talks, eventually, the North Korean greivance du jour becomes obvious (usually its frozen assets. They can usually lean on China for fuel and food, since China does not want a collapsed state on its border). Agreements are made, conditions are set.
Conditions are broken, or promises are not kept. Talks break down. North Korea bides its time, and then decides to do something "crazy" again. Rinse, wash, repeat.
Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes. If one of them went off, it knows its existence, as a regime, is forfeit, since it could be easily traced back to them. Since so far, North Korea has been playing a very careful game of upping the stakes, this would be quite out of character for them. They know they can bluster and threaten, but as soon as a nuke goes off, China, Japan and the USA will be looking to scalp them. Which is why they stick to their bluffing in the furtherance of more concrete goals.
The main worry is that a missile will land where it is not supposed to, ie; on Japan instead of the sea on the other side. Given they're not exactly working with high technology here its a real risk. Equally, their nuclear weapons designs came from Pakistan, and one thing I do know about the Pakistani arsenal is that the detonation systems were never secured in the way most other nuclear arsenals are. Since North Korean defectors are usually political and not scientific, we don't know if they have secured the weapons properly or not. I would hope the paranoid nature of the regime would have meant this had happened, but its by no means a given. Since a power struggle is coming in a few years, between Kim's more westernized son and the military's generals, THAT is something to look out for.
North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.
Usually I would agree with this but this situation isn't as clear cut. North Korea will appear weak to the world until a new successor for Kim Jong-Il takes control so the test could be a front to discourage any possible actions against the country during the transition. Also, NK's first nuclear test was not nearly as strong as was expected so this could show not only the world, but the NK population, that the administration is still strong even with Kim Jong-Il being replaced soon.
Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes.
Yes, in my opinion NK would have to be suicidal to sell nukes but they could use this event to advertise other weapons such as ballistic missiles.
The world's only hope is that they are rational actors.
If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?
If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?
That would give North Korea and Iran too much power. NK and Iran would actually have more incentive to create more nuclear weapons since they know they will get a lot of money from it and then NK and Iran would also have influence over our decisions.
Another reason is that we want to have power over NK and Iran. Once those countries get nuclear weapons, they will instantly become regional powers and the United States won't mess with them.
Once those countries get nuclear weapons, they will instantly become regional powers and the United States won't mess with them.
Its really too late for that. Thoughts need to now focus on how to deal with them WHEN, not if...
Its really too late for that. Thoughts need to now focus on how to deal with them WHEN, not if...
You give them too much credit. NK has numerous problems. Apparently their fissile material is low grade. Their experiment was not anywhere near as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb. And that means any bomb is also too large for deployment.
They launched a missile. To the naive and to those who always see enemies hiding everywhere, which means those missiles can be nuclear tipped. Nonsense. Facts say otherwise.
N Korea also does not have enough fissile material to market the stuff. Their nuclear program is for image - as if weapons alone make one powerful. Extremist military leaders worry about image. Implies military leaders, so worried about appearing weak, are in control. Did you not learn anything from Saddam and his WMDs?
UT cites a serious problem. The world's only hope is that they are rational actors. So the important question remains - who really is in charge?
They haven't been rational for the last 60 years, so I doubt they are now. :headshake
They haven't been rational for the last 60 years, so I doubt they are now.
Which *they*? Too many want to view in terms of a monolithic company, party, demonstrators, or country. Which they are not rational?
Clearly when Kim was offered an opportunity to open his nation to the world without losing his head to extremists, then he took it. Since his (rumored) stroke, even the hotline between the Koreas goes unanswered on the North side. So who now is *they*?
"They" are the succession of people running NK into the ground for the last 60 years. They have seen the Soviet Union and China demonstrate their system doesn't work, but continue to follow the same path.
"They" are holding a trial this week too.
SEOUL, South Korea – As global powers debate how to punish North Korea for its nuclear defiance, two American journalists seized nearly three months ago face a trial this week in Pyongyang on charges that could land them in one of the country's notorious labor camps.
North Korean guards detained Laura Ling and Euna Lee, reporters for former Vice President Al Gore's Current TV media venture, at the northeastern border with China on March 17. Activists who helped organize their trip say they had been reporting on North Korean women and children who fled to China for an uncertain life as refugees.
Pyongyang accused the Americans of engaging in "hostile acts" and crossing into communist North Korea illegally, and announced two weeks ago the women will stand trial June 4 in the nation's top court. Legal experts say conviction for "hostility" or espionage could mean five to 10 years in a labor camp.
Their detention and trial comes at a sensitive time in the diplomatic scramble to rein in an increasingly belligerent Pyongyang, which conducted an underground nuclear test last Monday and punctuated the defiance with an array of short-range missile tests. Diplomats at the U.N. are discussing a new Security Council resolution.
It's Official - sort of...
N. Korea's Kim taps 26-year-old son as successor
North Korea's Kim Jong Il has anointed his 26-year-old son — said to be competitive, proficient in English and a heavy drinker — as the next leader of the communist state, news reports said Tuesday.
North Korea hasn't declared anything yet and all this information is coming from South Korea intelligence. Some still think this is just a rumor started by South Korea and his first son may still be a possible successor.
“I am skeptical about these reports,” said Lee Seung-yong, an official at Good Friends, a Buddhist-affiliated relief agency that collects news about North Korea from informants inside the country. “I even think that rumors spreading among party officials in North Korea about who’s succeeding Kim Jong-il actually originate in South Korean media, which then report these rumors.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/world/asia/03korea.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=world
Other source:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124394212700076381.htmlthanks PH - good links. I especially liked the one from the WSJ.
Note the lead in my post included a sarcastic - "sort of..."
said to be competitive, proficient in English and a heavy drinker
Well, Yeltsin was a great success, so why not?
Will US send envoy after NKorea jails reporters?
The sentencing of two American journalists to 12 years' hard labor in North Korea on Monday sets the stage for possible negotiations with the reclusive nation for their release — perhaps involving an envoy from the United States.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the Obama administration is "pursuing every possible approach that we can consider in order to persuade the North Koreans to release them and send these young women home."
She stressed that the reporters' case and Washington's efforts to punish North Korea for its recent nuclear test are "entirely separate matters."
"We think the imprisonment, trial and sentencing of Laura and Euna should be viewed as a humanitarian matter," Clinton said. "We hope that the North Koreans will grant clemency and deport them."
Pyongyang will likely try to use them as bargaining chips in an increasingly tense standoff with the U.S. over the North's recent nuclear and missile tests.
President Barack Obama "is deeply concerned by the reported sentencing of the two American citizen journalists by North Korean authorities, and we are engaged through all possible channels to secure their release," said deputy White House spokesman William Burton.
Hope, concern... Kim has been doing this shit since I can remember. Newsweek had a great article (I can't find it online) on how he has repeatedly screwed the west "diplomatically."
China must get involved or nothing good is going to come of this. There is no way that diplomacy is going to solve the situation. Kim isn't interested and thats what it will take for it to work.
While it now appears to be only a question of time until an envoy is despatched, the Obama administration is treading carefully.
"If the Obama administration sends an envoy now to negotiate the release of the prisoners, it's highly likely that North Korea will want to discuss everything," Nicholas Szechenyi from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
"So that individual, whoever it may be, will have to have something in response to the North Korean demands on the nuclear side."
What are we willing to concede if our ultimate goal in zero nukes? Whatever we offer, Kim sure isn't going to give up on them easily, if at all.
We can predict what will almost certainly follow. The Security Council will, at best, adopt another resolution that won’t be implemented; Russia and China, while expressing “outrage,” will call for a “balanced” approach; the U.S. Special Envoy on North Korea will speak at every opportunity about the need to resume the Talks while the State Department regional bureau will work over time to give Pyongyang what it wants in exchange for returning to the negotiations. For its part, when it determines that it has gone far enough, North Korea may offer a gesture of “good will,” such as freeing the two captive journalists after their show trial for “hostile acts.” And in time, the North will likely pause its reprocessing campaign, perhaps when it runs out of spent fuel rods. The United States will then provide oil and other assistance to get the North back. But back to normal means Pyongyang will be paid even more to stay at the table, while all the time resisting meaningful constraints on its nuclear programs. And then there will be another walk out, another crisis, and the process will start again. I know the playbook, having several times seen the sequence of events unfold from positions in the White House and State Department under President George W. Bush and earlier in a number of policy offices at the Pentagon.
Whatever the administration decides to do, the clock is certainly ticking on this one.
This is just another NK form of Kabuki Theater.
China must get involved or nothing good is going to come of this. There is no way that diplomacy is going to solve the situation. Kim isn't interested and thats what it will take for it to work.
I would be really surprised if China did decide to do anything. Their "outrage" is bulllshit. The nukes are probably their technology.
What are we willing to concede if our ultimate goal in zero nukes? Whatever we offer, Kim sure isn't going to give up on them easily, if at all.
I don't think there is anything realistic that can be done to stop NK from getting more nuclear weapons. An attack is out of the question, economic sanctions won't have an effect, and China (the regional power) is not going to work with us on it.
Here is an article laying out the military capabilities of North Korea. They are quite impressive.
Following North Korea's latest spate of brinkmanship -- including everything from nuclear and missile tests to bombastic rhetoric -- one cannot help but wonder how worried we should be. Suddenly, military confrontation or worse, full-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula, looks less like a far-off nightmare and more like an impending threat. If it happened, what kind of punches could North Korea throw?
Many assume that the country's military -- like its people -- has been starved by the regime's isolation. But the opposite is true: The key reason why the populace is so short on resources (particularly fuel and food) is because the majority of these have been routed directly to troops. As easy as it seems to dismiss the starved country and its sickly leader, North Korea's conventional military has adjusted to dire economic times and is far more capable than many analysts realize. Pyongyang's armed forces, not just its nukes, could wreak havoc on the region.
There are two aspects of today's North Korean military that warrant a careful look. The first is the near two-decades-old build up of North Korea's asymmetric forces (in this case, forces that carry out unconventional missions). The second matter is reorganization -- much of which has resulted in a significant portion of the conventional forces being moved closer to the demilitarized zone (DMZ) such that they are perpetually poised to attack the South.
North Korea has three types of asymmetric forces poised to attack South Korea, organized into long-range artillery units, short-range ballistic missile units (SRBMs), and Special Operations Forces. In the first case, Pyongyang's long-range artillery includes indigenously produced versions of Soviet 240-mm multiple rocket launchers and 170-mm guns. The country has significantly beefed up the numbers of both weapons systems along the DMZ since the late 1990s. And because the systems have ranges of 40,000 meters or more, this means that at least 250 of them are now positioned in range of Seoul. They could target the South Korean capital and surrounding areas in Kyonggi province on a moment's notice. And to exacerbate the threat, between 5 and 20 percent of the systems are thought to be equipped with chemical munitions.
All this means that the potential damage from artillery alone, according to estimates from both South Korean and U.S. Defense officials, could reach 200,000 casualties -- and that's just on the first day of an attack. If war broke out, North Korea's artillery could shell Seoul, South Korea's political, commercial, and cultural center, back to the 1980s in a matter of hours.
Short-range ballistic missiles are the second asymmetric component of North Korea's arsenal. Since the 1990s, Pyongyang has worked to enhance its ballistic missile capability in numbers, command and control, and doctrine. The North Koreans now possess 200 No Dong missiles and more than 600 SCUDs, the latter with ranges between 300 and 850 km -- enough to target literally every inch of the South Korean landmass. North Korea has also added the SS-21 system, an old Soviet platform, to its missile arsenal. Known as the KN-02, this indigenously produced version of the SS-21 uses solid fuel and can be moved very quickly. With a range of at least 120 km and greater accuracy than most other missiles, it could easily target U.S. bases south of Seoul.
These first two components -- artillery and missile -- would be used in tandem if an attack took place, thanks to a reorganization of North Korea's military during the late 1990s. Both types of forces are now commanded by artillery officers, who would (in accordance with their training doctrine) consider missile systems to simply be artillery systems with a longer range and would target them accordingly. In an attack, many of North Korea's artillery systems might aim for Seoul and much of the surrounding province, while simultaneous missile attacks hit every key node in South Korea.
As for North Korea's Special Operations Forces (SOFs), South Korean estimates now place their numbers at as many as 180,000 men. North Korean SOFs are probably among the best- trained, best fed, and most motivated of all the forces in their military. They routinely undergo intense training that includes carrying 50 pounds of sand for 10 km in one hour, hiking in extreme cold weather, martial arts methodologies that include fighting with three to 15 opponents, and even using spoons and forks as weapons. Troops also engage in intense marksmanship training and even daily knife-throwing training. They can attack quickly, reaching key nodes in South Korea by aircraft, through tunnels in the DMZ, or even by maritime vessel.
The combined use of North Korea's asymmetric forces would almost certainly incite panic during any attack on the South. In the confusion, it is possible that enough cracks might open in South Korea's and the United States' defenses to allow Northern maneuver forces (infantry, armor, and mechanized forces) to move forward and take ground. (It is no coincidence that, over the past 15 years, North Korea has moved many of its conventional forces to forward positions -- often near invasion corridors along the border.) Put all this together, and an attack would inflict casualties to the tune of hundreds of thousands -- the majority of them civilian and many in Seoul.
Despite the primitive state of many of North Korea's systems compared with those of the United States and South Korea, Pyongyang's ability to make creative use of its limited resources is indeed alarming. The world would do well to look beyond just the nukes.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4972They are not to be taken lightly, thats for sure. Like I said in a previous post. We should be preparing to deal with a nuclear NK.
Found this while toodling around the old IOTD threads:
http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=2583Bumper pool...
Naro rocket blows up in midair
Korea demands Russia provide rocket for 3rd launch
By Kim Tong-hyung
Staff reporter
GOHEUNG, South Jeolla Province ― The second flight of the Korea Space Launch Vehicle I (KSLV-I) ended in failure with an explosion Thursday. The rocket, carrying a satellite aimed at observing the atmosphere and oceans, blasted off from the Naro Space Center here at 5:01 p.m., but exploded about two minutes later.
The spectacular letdown adds to the fears that the country's Herculean investment of money and effort into its first home-launched rocket may never produce the desired returns.
The Naro spaceport lost contact with the rocket 137 seconds after liftoff, when it was believed to be at an altitude of around 70 kilometers, which appears to be the moment when it exploded, according to the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI), the country's space agency.
Sources close to the launch project told The Korea Times that first indications suggest a failure of the rocket's main, RD-151 rocket engine, developed by Russia's NPO Energomash, as its performance was seen to be reduced considerably as the vehicle began to veer off course. The rocket's payload, the Science and Technology Satellite No. 2 (STSAT-2), was also destroyed.
A number experts of also suggested that the country was fortunate to avoid a disaster as ground control was unable to command the wayward rocket to self-destruct with communications being out, which may have led to shuddering consequences had debris crashed onto land.
The doomed KSLV-I launch was the first launch since one in August last year, when the rocket achieved its desired speed and height, but failed to deliver its payload satellite into orbit.
``The Naro (KSLV-1) flew normally until 137.19 seconds after liftoff, when the communications with the ground tracking facilities were severed. The footage from the camera installed on the upper part of the rocket suddenly brightened at that moment, which suggests that the rocket's first stage exploded during flight,'' said Ahn Byung-man, South Korea's minister of education, science and technology, before bustling out of the spaceport's briefing room refusing to respond to questions from hounding media members.
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Perhaps its something in the water over there or maybe their arms don't flap fast enough. Damn - these guys keep blowing their shit up.
2007 article on
Space Launch Vehicle Reliability -- very interesting! Did not know the USSR had been so far ahead of the USA. They've launched more vehicles than all the rest of us combined.
Which *they*? Too many want to view in terms of a monolithic company, party, demonstrators, or country. Which they are not rational?
Even in view of your second para from this 2009 post, not quoted here, I am very surprised you found it necessary to ask -- unless you intended an expository question.
In which case I suggest your treating it as a rhetorical question and going on to make some sort of answer to it.
The DPRK's domestic policy (not changed much since 2009 either) shows that non-monolithism is not allowed and will get you a shortish life sentence in a "corrective" labor camp. This is amply well known. Can you somehow
not know it, or even remain the least bit fuzzy on the concept? Working for General Motors didn't leave you time to read any papers or newsmagazines?
Honestly, tw. That kind of not-thinking is why I despise the Left so. There are documentary segments on North Korea put up on epphin' YouTube, FerFuxacheS. And in their dispassionate way, they are creepy as hell.
Bumpity boop ....
North Korea's rocket fell apart faster then the cowboys playoff hopes last December.
North Korea's long-range rocket failed early Friday, U.S. officials said, calling it a blow for the reclusive state's propaganda efforts.
The rocket broke up about 90 seconds after taking off, an official told NBC News.
The rocket was launched from Tongchang-ri, on North Korea's west coast and flew about 75 miles, Japanese broadcaster NHK said.
The South Korean army said rocket debris crashed off Kunsan, home to a U.S. air base on South Korea's west coast.
NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, said the rocket's first stage fell into the sea and two other stages failed.
LinkTheir next rocket should be disc-shaped. It might go a little further than the rest.
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LOLs.
It'll be announced in NK as a glorious success. Or else they'll swear the evil capitalist pigs shot it down as an act of aggression.
No, really. If they'd been investing in buoys or submarines or something, they'd have mastered it by now, with all the rockets they've dropped in the water. whats the quickest way to send expensive scientific equipment to the bottom of the east sea? their ballistic program!
North Korea reminds me a little of the belligerent drunk, not quite able to stand, shouting threats at anyone within range, waving some kind of minor weapon. You don't think they actually could attack someone, at least not successfully; and they're probably not stupid enough to try it ... but you're not absolutely sure they won't do something really stupid, and you don't want to take your eye off them, just in case.
The status quo on the Korean peninsula should be preserved as a Cold War Theme Park, just to remind us most of the world was once this crazy.
They actually told their people the truth this time. Of course they can always amend it later. Thinking on it, if it was a good rocket we would have smoked it anyway.
They actually told their people the truth this time.
Which suggests a political change. But a change which way?
For example, is new leaderships challenging the extremists to put up a rocket that 'could not fail'? To gain political control over extremists?
Or is the new leadership so naive as to believe what their extremists were claiming? That they could make intercontinental missiles and explode nuclear bombs if not impeded by moderates.
Or is the new leadership so unstable as to need these accomplishments.
Were they being public so as to defuse accusations that it was a military bomb delivery system? Could be.
We can only say something has changed. But we don't know who is gaining power, who is threaten (politically endangered), or who is that naive. All three may apply to the different power centers in N Korea. But more important, which option includes the new Kim?
To define a monolithic N Korea as evil would be foolish and Limbaugh simplistic. We know this ‘publically admitted’ rocket failure and a secret tunnel for a nuclear attempt define changes. We just don’t know what that change is or what it means.
Those easily manipulated by myths (ie Saddam's WMD, cigarettes to increase health) will listen to the ill informed preaching wild speculation. Others who only know after learning facts understand why these latest N Korean actions occurred.
Curious is something new: they publically admitted to a three stage rocket. And then publically admitted to its failure. Something changed.
The military runs N Korea. Nothing this man-child says matters. If they feel strongly enough he will be on the next rocket they fire into the ocean.
The military runs N Korea. Nothing this man-child says matters.
Or they have a government run by their 'Cheney' with Kim as their 'George Jr'. More viable possibilities because we have so few facts and plenty of speculation.
We know something changed. They publically announced their rocket launch in advance. And eventually did what never happens in N Korea. They admitted to a failure. Any conclusion beyond that is mostly wild speculation. Often called knowledge based in emotion. Some possible realities posted above with another reality. No facts exist to convert those possibilities into knowledge.
Who is N Korea's 'Cheney'? We don't even know that.
They publically announced their rocket launch in advance. And eventually did what never happens in N Korea. They admitted to a failure.
Rookie mistake. ;)
Same story as 12 years agoMore changes. Kim has given a speech where 1) he acknowledged the great famine. And 2) declares it will not happen again.
Another major change. N Korea admitted to another failure of Kim's father. And promised to do better. These are major concessions.
What? ?? The great famine is ongoing ffs!! Its happening NOW!!!
Their next rocket should be disc-shaped. It might go a little further than the rest.
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Sh-yeah, right.
It ain't like it's rocket scie---wait, it
is rocket science.
:D
To define a monolithic N Korea as evil would be foolish and Limbaugh simplistic.
DPRK is a small-ruling-coalition, autocratic state. The record for this type of régime is in the main very evil. Evil's the safe bet, as a reading of
The Dictator's Handbook could inform you. Since you have an unbroken record, tw, of not knowing wisdom even if it bit you on both cheeks of your ass twice each, you will never have read this book.
Define "evil", UG.
He looked in a mirror and could not even see himself. So he posted what he saw - nothing.