Betting tips - Page 3

Flint · 11-08-2006, 03:13 PM

Is that because the other 5% is "rigged" as profit for the bookie?

W.HI.P · 11-08-2006, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flint

Is that because the other 5% is "rigged" as profit for the bookie?

Suprisingly, the most commonly rigged matches worldwide are Champions league finals, World cup finals or semi's,Euro cup finals, and Uefa cup finals.
This happens because of money. These 4 events are the most wagered events wordwide every year or whenever they happen, and over 90% of the money is wagered on the one team to win or the other team to win, leaving the draw open for the bookies to collect all the money.
In football(Soccer) all bets end at 90th minute.
The result is that its not even unfair, i mean, so they all get payed to end in a draw, and play overtime and if neccesary a penalty shoot out straight up to determine the winner.
If you look back over the past 5 years, and notice the amounts wagered, you'll notice that the 4 most highly wagered events in history all ended in a draw.

Flint · 11-08-2006, 03:21 PM

I don't mean whether the sports are rigged, I mean whether the betting system is rigged.

Clodfobble · 11-08-2006, 03:23 PM

So what you're saying is, one should bet for the World Cup Final to end in a draw, since all that matters is that they're at a draw at the 90-minute mark?

W.HI.P · 11-08-2006, 03:24 PM

The bookie is ensured his percentage on the wager, i mean a 3 game footbal bet should payout 8/1 to be fair, but it pays 5/1 - 7/1 depending on where you make your wager...this is the profit for the bookie.
But in reality the greatest profit for the bookie are those wagers with more than 3 games per bet, thats just money in the bank for them.

W.HI.P · 11-08-2006, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

So what you're saying is, one should bet for the World Cup Final to end in a draw, since all that matters is that they're at a draw at the 90-minute mark?

Absolutely!
Anytime you see a masivly wagered event, always bet for the house to win.

W.HI.P · 11-08-2006, 05:03 PM

I forgot about Mondays game, so I'll update...........

N.F.L Pointspread
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*

Chiefs (-3,0)-Dolphins

To judge this one based on the week that just passed would be wrong, as KC beat a so-so Rams team and the Miami Dolphins got a gimme from the superbowl Bears. I don't see too many differences between these two teams, and based on the fact that the Dolphins are playing at home and there's a -3,0 pointspread,
Bet on the Dolphins

Texans-Jaguars(-10,5)
You always look at a team like the Texans at the end of the year and wonder how they manage to pick up 3 wins in the year, and you look at the stats and you say, not bad, not bad at all, but these Texans have scored more touchdowns in the 4th Quarter than in any other, while they were down by a bundle...its that prevent defence to kill the time and relax a bit that Houston jumps on to steal these points...this team is really bad.
The Jaguars on the other hand are a playoff team, but at this point, they are having a little bit of roster trouble, and until they sort their team out, I'm gonna have to stay away from them, especially when there's a 10,5 pointspread at hand.

Chargers(-2,5)-Bengals
If you we're to ask me who the better team is here, I would have a hard time answering. I know how good this Bengals offence is..they simply haven't gotten it together much this year, and even if they do in this game, the San Diego Chargers will just run the ball at them with super LT. This particular matchup is so imbalanced its not funny.
Look for a career breaking day for Tomlinson because the Bengals defence against the run Is that bad, and LT Is that good.
the -2,5 is nothing here.
Bet on the Chargers!!!

Browns-Falcons(-7,5)
As I've said on more than one occasions, the Browns are really a pretty good team, all round... the falcons have shown glimpses of a good team as well, but something is not right in the team. Although in my eyes, this is an easy Browns pointspread cover, i hesitate as both the browns have off days, and falcons have good days, so I'll just sit back and watch it.

Ravens(-7,5)-Titans
So, you wanna bet on the Ravens eh? well consider this...how many wins do you think the ravens will have at the end of the year? 9?? ...10 at the most?
thats quite a few losses coming for em'. Ok, it looks like a mismatch here, so here's another one to watch.

Bills-Colts(-14)
This is so wrong, the Buffalo Bills are a good team, they really are, they should have and could have beaten them Patriots...them Patriots who last week we're listed as -2,5 point favorites over these Colts, so WHY the -14??
The Bills have the kind of team to keep Super Manning off the field and make this a low scoring close game, which is exactly what they're gonna set out to do in this one...watch McGahee get a lot of touches, and he'll do well.
...and you know, at 9-0, the Colts are not gonna kill themselves to beat this spread. As a coach, +10 would mean give Manning a rest, run the ball safely and punt.
Bet on the Bills

Redskins-Eagels(-7,0)

Ok, so I'm an Eagels fan, but that dosen't influence my judgement. Keep in mind that i have bet against them twice this year, and one of them (against the Giants) was my clutch bet, meaning that all bets of mine that week involved the giants win over my Eagels.
McNnab hasn't been well these past 2 games, and then the bye week.
So westbrook has probably recovered in full, Donovan has had the time to get on track and get ready for this very important rivalry against the Redskins.
One of the things that have been absolutely solid is this Eagels defence which allowed merely 1 touchdown in these two consecutive losses.
So yeah, if McNnab is at 75% at least this will be a very easy win for the Philadelphia Eagels, and the -7,0 will not be a factor
Bet on the Eagels

Packers-Vikings(-6,5)
These Vikings look really bad, and even if they play like they did against the Bears, these Green Bay Packers with Green 100% are really playing some excellent football. Expect Green to get 130-150 yards with a few touchdowns, and that alone will give Favre the freedom to throw some passes without getting picked off.
The Vikings are -6,5 point favorites?? , it should be the other way around!
Bet on the Packers!!

Jets-Patriots(10,5)
Expect Brady to preform like he did last week as this New York Jets defence is just about as bad as the Colts's. One thing they understimate here is the Jets offence which really have an amazing passing game, and judging by the fact that the Patriots defence is not that hot against the pass.
The Jets might actually win this and with a -10,5 pointspread it looks like a safe wager.
Bet on the Jets

49ers-Lions(-6,5)
Two of the worst teams in the game face each other.
One would expect an easy highscoring Lions victory here, but i hesitate recomending them because not too much seperate these teams in my eyes.

Broncos(-10,5)-Raiders
Poor raiders, R.moss, wants to leave the team and is at war with the franchise dropping passes whenever he can, to get the point across.
I wonder at which point they'll come to a verbal agreement, and he'll start playing again. Until then, you'll just have to avoid the games they play.
Whats up with that 10,5 pointspread? it dosen't feel right here, whatever you do, don't take it!

Saints-Steelers(-3,0)
Whats up with these guys? When will they realize that the Steelers aren't the team they were 3 years ago, they've been on the downfall ever since, and its just gonna keep getting worse, Never bet on these guys until 3-5 years go by. This particular week though, against these Saints which are full of question marks, I'm just gonna pass on it.

Rams-Seahawks(-4,5)
It looks like Alexander's coming back for this one, I don't know if he's 50% or 100% percent, and based on the fact that these Seahawks looked really really bad these past 2 weeks, despite the fact that their facing a mediocre team, avoid!

Cowboys(-7,5)-Cardinals
This is such a lopsided matchup. All of the quality on theis Cardinals team is in the offence, leaving Romo and the Dallas Cowboys the freedom to run up the score as much as they want, and based on the fact that they're 4-4, they'll kill the Cardinals. Now Arizona will score, but I expect the Cowboys here to have the most points scored in the nfl this week, that'll erase the -7,5 pointspread.
Bet on the Cowboys!

Bears-Giants(2,5)
Wow, this could be the NFC Final!
2 amazing defenes, the one better than the other.
Key factor in this one is that the Bears have no opponent in their division, this continues to be relax time for them Bears, while the New York Giants have 3 superteams waiting for them to slip up.
Don't get me wrong here, IMO, the Bears ae a better team, my recomendation here is based on the Bears looking at the superbowl, think about it for a second. How much of a superbowl team would they be without Brian?
Even though Strahan is out and there's a -2,5 pointspread.
Bet on the Giants!

Bucs-Panthers(-9,5)
Week in week out, I keep mentioning how bad this Bucs team is, and if it wasn't for the Raiders and the Moss problem, the bucs would be at the bottom of the pit alongside the 49ers. The Carolina Panthers are an excellent team, a little one dimensional, even last year, but look how far they got!
This should be a defencive battle, but i think this Panthers team will be able to score just enough to beat this quite big for my liking -9,5 points.
There are 8 better bets than this one, but Monday night is a must.
Bet on the Panthers

BigV · 11-09-2006, 09:45 AM

Alright, perfesser. I got a question. How do you read those, what are they called? Betting lines? Bucs-Panthers(-9,5) or Bears-Giants(2,5) or Bills-Colts(-14) or Saints-Steelers(-3,0)??!? I think the second team name is the home team right? Maybe not. Does it matter? Sometimes there's one number, sometimes two. Sometimes one of the numbers is zero. Is the difference in the numbers important? What do they indicate?

I'm just warmin up.

W.HI.P · 11-09-2006, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV

Alright, perfesser. I got a question. How do you read those, what are they called? Betting lines? Bucs-Panthers(-9,5) or Bears-Giants(2,5) or Bills-Colts(-14) or Saints-Steelers(-3,0)??!? I think the second team name is the home team right? Maybe not. Does it matter? Sometimes there's one number, sometimes two. Sometimes one of the numbers is zero. Is the difference in the numbers important? What do they indicate?

I'm just warmin up.

In the pointspread, a certain handicap is given to the weaker team.
Example in this case :Bucs-Panthers(-9,5) the Panthers start the game with -9,5 points, meaning that if you bet on them to win, they have to win by 10 points to beat the spread, if they win by 9, its like they lost.
in this example: Saints-Steelers(-3,0), its the same thing,the steelers have to win by 4 points or more to actually win the bet, the saint win even if they lose by two. but in this case, should the steelers win by 3 points, all bets are off. its like the game never happened...
Just getting started eh? Thats fine.

BigV · 11-09-2006, 01:39 PM

Ok so "," is your decimal separator. That clears up a lot. In my neck of the woods, "," is used to separate items in a list, or elements of a set, but rarely in an arithmetic context. That's very helpful.

Thanks!

BigV · 11-09-2006, 01:41 PM

So are (-14) and (-14,0) equivalent statements using this notation?

W.HI.P · 11-09-2006, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV

So are (-14) and (-14,0) equivalent statements using this notation?

no ...the .0 is used, as it is rare, and must be clear to the gambler that there is no .5

N.F.L.Football

Bills-Colts(-14)
A little turn of events here, I've given the Bills to beat this spread based on the fact that McGahee will be able to keep Manning off the field, he is OUT!, so yeah, all bets are off here, I take back my recomendation.
Here are my recomendations for the weekend now:

Miami Dolphins Over KC Chiefs(-3,0)
San Diego Chargers(-2,5) over Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagels(-7) over Washington Redskins
Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings(-6,5)
Ney York Jets over NE Patriots(-10,5)
Dallas Cowboys(-7,5) over Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants(-2,5) over Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers(-9,5) over TB Bucs

BigV · 11-09-2006, 01:58 PM

Sorry, I wasn't picking on a *specific* remark/tout/tip whatever. But I'm still confused about the difference when there's a second number following the separator and it's zero compared to when there's only one number. Don't both of them indicate a whole number of "points" in the "spread"?

BigV · 11-09-2006, 02:00 PM

And what is "all bets are off"? Returned to the bettor? Completely?

W.HI.P · 11-09-2006, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV

Sorry, I wasn't picking on a *specific* remark/tout/tip whatever. But I'm still confused about the difference when there's a second number following the separator and it's zero compared to when there's only one number. Don't both of them indicate a whole number of "points" in the "spread"?

That was coincidence.
over 90% of spreads are .5 thus eliminating an possiblity of a tie, I don't why they've added the .0 into it.

Quote:

And what is "all bets are off"? Returned to the bettor? Completely?

On a bet of 3 games, depending on where you play it, the pay-out would be 7/1
in the case that the game ends exatcly at the .0 that the spread offers, all bets for that game are off, the other two games on our ticket are still a gamble, if you lose one of them, you lose your bet, if you win them both, instead of 7/1, you collect 3/1...i repeat, those odds differ depending on where you've bet, i believe the lowest odds given would be, instead of 5/1, you'd get 2/1.

11-08-2006, 03:13 PM	#31
Flint Snowflake Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Dystopia Posts: 13,136	Is that because the other 5% is "rigged" as profit for the bookie? __________________ **************** There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio**

11-08-2006, 03:21 PM	#33
Flint Snowflake Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Dystopia Posts: 13,136	I don't mean whether the sports are rigged, I mean whether the betting system is rigged. __________________ **************** There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio**

11-08-2006, 03:24 PM	#35
W.HI.P Free Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Canada Posts: 1,513	The bookie is ensured his percentage on the wager, i mean a 3 game footbal bet should payout 8/1 to be fair, but it pays 5/1 - 7/1 depending on where you make your wager...this is the profit for the bookie. But in reality the greatest profit for the bookie are those wagers with more than 3 games per bet, thats just money in the bank for them. Last edited by W.HI.P; 11-08-2006 at 03:31 PM.

11-09-2006, 09:45 AM	#38
BigV Goon Squad Leader Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Seattle Posts: 27,063	Alright, perfesser. I got a question. How do you read those, what are they called? Betting lines? Bucs-Panthers(-9,5) or Bears-Giants(2,5) or Bills-Colts(-14) or Saints-Steelers(-3,0)??!? I think the second team name is the home team right? Maybe not. Does it matter? Sometimes there's one number, sometimes two. Sometimes one of the numbers is zero. Is the difference in the numbers important? What do they indicate? I'm just warmin up. __________________ Be Just and Fear Not.

11-09-2006, 01:39 PM	#40
BigV Goon Squad Leader Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Seattle Posts: 27,063	Ok so "," is your decimal separator. That clears up a lot. In my neck of the woods, "," is used to separate items in a list, or elements of a set, but rarely in an arithmetic context. That's very helpful. Thanks! __________________ Be Just and Fear Not.

11-08-2006, 03:23 PM	#34
Clodfobble UNDER CONDITIONAL MITIGATION Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 20,012	So what you're saying is, one should bet for the World Cup Final to end in a draw, since all that matters is that they're at a draw at the 90-minute mark?

11-08-2006, 05:03 PM	#37
W.HI.P Free Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Canada Posts: 1,513	I forgot about Mondays game, so I'll update........... N.F.L Pointspread ~~~~~~~ *Chiefs (-3,0)-Dolphins* To judge this one based on the week that just passed would be wrong, as KC beat a so-so Rams team and the Miami Dolphins got a gimme from the superbowl Bears. I don't see too many differences between these two teams, and based on the fact that the Dolphins are playing at home and there's a -3,0 pointspread, Bet on the Dolphins *Texans-Jaguars(-10,5)* You always look at a team like the Texans at the end of the year and wonder how they manage to pick up 3 wins in the year, and you look at the stats and you say, not bad, not bad at all, but these Texans have scored more touchdowns in the 4th Quarter than in any other, while they were down by a bundle...its that prevent defence to kill the time and relax a bit that Houston jumps on to steal these points...this team is really bad. The Jaguars on the other hand are a playoff team, but at this point, they are having a little bit of roster trouble, and until they sort their team out, I'm gonna have to stay away from them, especially when there's a 10,5 pointspread at hand. *Chargers(-2,5)-Bengals* If you we're to ask me who the better team is here, I would have a hard time answering. I know how good this Bengals offence is..they simply haven't gotten it together much this year, and even if they do in this game, the San Diego Chargers will just run the ball at them with super LT. This particular matchup is so imbalanced its not funny. Look for a career breaking day for Tomlinson because the Bengals defence against the run Is that bad, and LT Is that good. the -2,5 is nothing here. Bet on the Chargers!!! *Browns-Falcons(-7,5)* As I've said on more than one occasions, the Browns are really a pretty good team, all round... the falcons have shown glimpses of a good team as well, but something is not right in the team. Although in my eyes, this is an easy Browns pointspread cover, i hesitate as both the browns have off days, and falcons have good days, so I'll just sit back and watch it. *Ravens(-7,5)-Titans* So, you wanna bet on the Ravens eh? well consider this...how many wins do you think the ravens will have at the end of the year? 9?? ...10 at the most? thats quite a few losses coming for em'. Ok, it looks like a mismatch here, so here's another one to watch. Bills-Colts(-14) This is so wrong, the Buffalo Bills are a good team, they really are, they should have and could have beaten them Patriots...them Patriots who last week we're listed as -2,5 point favorites over these Colts, so WHY the -14?? The Bills have the kind of team to keep Super Manning off the field and make this a low scoring close game, which is exactly what they're gonna set out to do in this one...watch McGahee get a lot of touches, and he'll do well. ...and you know, at 9-0, the Colts are not gonna kill themselves to beat this spread. As a coach, +10 would mean give Manning a rest, run the ball safely and punt. Bet on the Bills *Redskins-Eagels(-7,0)* Ok, so I'm an Eagels fan, but that dosen't influence my judgement. Keep in mind that i have bet against them twice this year, and one of them (against the Giants) was my clutch bet, meaning that all bets of mine that week involved the giants win over my Eagels. McNnab hasn't been well these past 2 games, and then the bye week. So westbrook has probably recovered in full, Donovan has had the time to get on track and get ready for this very important rivalry against the Redskins. One of the things that have been absolutely solid is this Eagels defence which allowed merely 1 touchdown in these two consecutive losses. So yeah, if McNnab is at 75% at least this will be a very easy win for the Philadelphia Eagels, and the -7,0 will not be a factor Bet on the Eagels *Packers-Vikings(-6,5)* These Vikings look really bad, and even if they play like they did against the Bears, these Green Bay Packers with Green 100% are really playing some excellent football. Expect Green to get 130-150 yards with a few touchdowns, and that alone will give Favre the freedom to throw some passes without getting picked off. The Vikings are -6,5 point favorites?? , it should be the other way around! Bet on the Packers!! *Jets-Patriots(10,5)* Expect Brady to preform like he did last week as this New York Jets defence is just about as bad as the Colts's. One thing they understimate here is the Jets offence which really have an amazing passing game, and judging by the fact that the Patriots defence is not that hot against the pass. The Jets might actually win this and with a -10,5 pointspread it looks like a safe wager. Bet on the Jets *49ers-Lions(-6,5)* Two of the worst teams in the game face each other. One would expect an easy highscoring Lions victory here, but i hesitate recomending them because not too much seperate these teams in my eyes. *Broncos(-10,5)-Raiders* Poor raiders, R.moss, wants to leave the team and is at war with the franchise dropping passes whenever he can, to get the point across. I wonder at which point they'll come to a verbal agreement, and he'll start playing again. Until then, you'll just have to avoid the games they play. Whats up with that 10,5 pointspread? it dosen't feel right here, whatever you do, don't take it! *Saints-Steelers(-3,0)* Whats up with these guys? When will they realize that the Steelers aren't the team they were 3 years ago, they've been on the downfall ever since, and its just gonna keep getting worse, Never bet on these guys until 3-5 years go by. This particular week though, against these Saints which are full of question marks, I'm just gonna pass on it. *Rams-Seahawks(-4,5)* It looks like Alexander's coming back for this one, I don't know if he's 50% or 100% percent, and based on the fact that these Seahawks looked really really bad these past 2 weeks, despite the fact that their facing a mediocre team, avoid! *Cowboys(-7,5)-Cardinals* This is such a lopsided matchup. All of the quality on theis Cardinals team is in the offence, leaving Romo and the Dallas Cowboys the freedom to run up the score as much as they want, and based on the fact that they're 4-4, they'll kill the Cardinals. Now Arizona will score, but I expect the Cowboys here to have the most points scored in the nfl this week, that'll erase the -7,5 pointspread. Bet on the Cowboys! *Bears-Giants(2,5)* Wow, this could be the NFC Final! 2 amazing defenes, the one better than the other. Key factor in this one is that the Bears have no opponent in their division, this continues to be relax time for them Bears, while the New York Giants have 3 superteams waiting for them to slip up. Don't get me wrong here, IMO, the Bears ae a better team, my recomendation here is based on the Bears looking at the superbowl, think about it for a second. How much of a superbowl team would they be without Brian? Even though Strahan is out and there's a -2,5 pointspread. Bet on the Giants! Bucs-Panthers(-9,5) Week in week out, I keep mentioning how bad this Bucs team is, and if it wasn't for the Raiders and the Moss problem, the bucs would be at the bottom of the pit alongside the 49ers. The Carolina Panthers are an excellent team, a little one dimensional, even last year, but look how far they got! This should be a defencive battle, but i think this Panthers team will be able to score just enough to beat this quite big for my liking -9,5 points. There are 8 better bets than this one, but Monday night is a must. Bet on the Panthers

11-09-2006, 01:41 PM	#41
BigV Goon Squad Leader Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Seattle Posts: 27,063	So are (-14) and (-14,0) equivalent statements using this notation? __________________ Be Just and Fear Not.

11-09-2006, 01:58 PM	#43
BigV Goon Squad Leader Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Seattle Posts: 27,063	Sorry, I wasn't picking on a specific remark/tout/tip whatever. But I'm still confused about the difference when there's a second number following the separator and it's zero compared to when there's only one number. Don't both of them indicate a whole number of "points" in the "spread"? __________________ Be Just and Fear Not.

11-09-2006, 02:00 PM	#44
BigV Goon Squad Leader Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Seattle Posts: 27,063	And what is "all bets are off"? Returned to the bettor? Completely? __________________ Be Just and Fear Not.

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)