March 8th, 2019 : Save Limey’s houses

[xoxoxoBruce]

Despite the rhetoric of the deniers with their policy of profits before people, bullshitting anyone they can, we know better.
Any clear thinking person knows the Earth is warming. It’s just a question of how much, how fast, and how it will change the
shape of landmasses and our lives.

A chilling new installation in the Outer Hebrides shows the impact of climate change and rising tides on the low-lying islands off the west coast of Scotland. Lines (57° 59 ́N, 7° 16 ́W) was created by Finnish artists Pekka Niittyvirta and Timo Aho for Taigh Chearsabhagh Museum & Arts Centre in Lochmaddy on the island of North Uist.

The site-specific installation uses sensors and LED lights to show where the water will flow during storm surges if the Earth’s temperature continues to rise. Searing white lines mark this rising water level on the sides of buildings, hover over bridges, and extend across other susceptible areas across the museum campus and surrounding community.

The installation’s delineations starkly demonstrate the ticking clock that makes the museum’s current location unsustainable unless drastic measures are taken to stop climate change. The video below shows the artists’ installation process.

link

[Undertoad]

RCP 8.5?

[Undertoad]

Ah, no it isn't.

The sea level at this installation is 3 meters above sea level. Worst-case RCP 8.5 projects a rise of 1 meter. That is also controversial, as climate scientists are not in great consensus about sea level rise. Sea level rises differently at different locations, and so not all tide gauges report a sea level rise, although consensus says it rose about 8 inches last century.

[xoxoxoBruce]

That should be the subject of speculation, not if but when and how much.

Already, Thwaites’ losses were responsible for about 4 percent of global sea-level rise every year. When the entire glacier went, the seas would likely rise by a few feet; when the glaciers around it did, too, the seas might rise by more than a dozen feet.

Then I'd have to battle the refugees living at lower elevations than I.

[Undertoad]

Study says Thwaites' collapse is due to geothermal sources

And no wonder; there was no warming, actually there was cooling in Antarctica for the last few decades. It was down -0.4C from the 1980 starting point, at one time. I think that has recently reversed, but I haven't been keeping up with it in recent years. Most warming has happened in the Arctic.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Many of the glaciers in West Antarctica (what's west? It's north in any direction.) are sitting on land that's below sea level. So they melt from the bottom then more and more exposed to sea water.

Hey, think what would happen if a big old volcano popped up down there. Of course it would be a Left wing/Right wing/Russian/Socialist/North Korean/Muslim/Mossad plot.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

The sea level at this installation is 3 meters above sea level. Worst-case RCP 8.5 projects a rise of 1 meter. That is also controversial, as climate scientists are not in great consensus about sea level rise. Sea level rises differently at different locations, and so not all tide gauges report a sea level rise, although consensus says it rose about 8 inches last century.

The project claims to represent the "storm surge" level, not the everyday sea level. I have no idea if their storm surge predictions are accurate or not, but it's true that if the area floods that high for just one week out of every two or three years, the area is unlivable no matter what is happening the rest of the time.

[xoxoxoBruce]

I’m told between 1500AD and 1600AD Europeans caused the death of 90% the natives of the Americas, approximately 56 million people. OK, I’ll buy that because it really doesn’t matter now, except for unproductive guilt trips and shaming.

But then they go on to claim that all the land these natives were growing food on lay fallow, so ground cover then forests took over which was a major contributor the Little Ice Age in Europe. That’s where the Thames froze regularly, snowstorms were common in Portugal, and famines throughout Europe. All this was interesting but what caught my attention is all this trouble was caused by a world average temperature drop of 0.15C! (0.27F!)

Then they say in the last century deforestation, industrializing, and greenhouse gasses have raised the planet’s temperature about 1C (1.8F) which will cause increasingly severe storms, drought, heatwaves, coastal flooding and food insecurity, unless we drastically cut emissions within a decade.

I have no way of knowing if they are bullshitting me, and if so it’s intentionally or unintentionally. But this is the first time I’ve seen such big claims from such tiny numbers. I haven't seen any predictions of glacier melt tied to those numbers.

link

[Undertoad]

NOAA has a sea level trends website where there is a really cool map and you can see how the sea levels have been trending, around the globe. (Since 1992, these levels are monitored by satellite.)

There is a marker right near where this Hebrides location is, and it reports:

The relative sea level trend is 2.28 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.75 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1977 to 2016 which is equivalent to a change of 0.75 feet in 100 years.

The global warming worry, in sea level change, is that it will accelerate. So far, it hasn't done that, but the concern I believe is for Greenland and such.

An interesting note... on that map, there are a third of places around the globe where sea levels are falling. In northwestern Canada and Alaska, sea level is falling very fast. 5 feet per century, in some areas.

This is actually due to the land mass "rebounding" for the last 12,000 years, after the last ice age. It has lost the weight of all the ice that was on it, and on a geologic time frame, it still takes all this time for the land to spring back.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

And no wonder; there was no warming, actually there was cooling in Antarctica for the last few decades. It was down -0.4C from the 1980 starting point, at one time. I think that has recently reversed, but I haven't been keeping up with it in recent years.

The source of that stat.

[Undertoad]

um no. what I saw was satellite data, like 3 years back not 13. I'll try to find it

[Undertoad]

not what i originally saw, but close enough, this is a graph of the UAH satellite data set for Antarctica.



via

A lot of studies have found the northern hemisphere warming faster than the southern.

[burns334]

One might check out a chuck woolery podcast with Dr. Peter Ward, short and easy to listen to, a different viewpoint. It can be found on stitcher under "Blunt Force Truth" episode 406 dated Feb 25, 2019

[limey]

You mean I should not have moved from a house 180 metres above sea-level to one 3 metres above sea level?


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[Gravdigr]

Just wear galoshes.