The Cellar  

Go Back   The Cellar > Main > Home Base

Home Base A starting point, and place for threads don't seem to belong anywhere else

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-04-2008, 10:26 PM   #31
lumberjim
I can hear my ears
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 25,571
5?
__________________
This body holding me reminds me of my own mortality
Embrace this moment, remember
We are eternal, all this pain is an illusion ~MJKeenan
lumberjim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2008, 10:40 PM   #32
Flint
Snowflake
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Dystopia
Posts: 13,136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clodfobble View Post
A five year old can shuffle a deck of cards. Since half of the population is not in a coma or under the age of five, doubling the work week will have a bigger positive effect than the negative effect of counting out those unable to shuffle.

But if you don't like that one, then how about you add in population growth, since people will have all this spare time to boink each other? Hey, you're the one who wants to make this happen, I'm just trying to think outside the box for you.
Basically, everyone on the Earth is not going to drop everything and shuffle cards all day. We couldn't even survive that for very long. So, in taking the total poulation of the Earth as my number, I'm making an impossibly generous concession, in order to imagine this actually happening. The 40-hour week is something familiar to us; I'm trying to put it in real terms.

If you like, I could go back to having each person shuffle an exponential amount of decks every second...
__________________
******************
There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there
it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your
expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever
gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio
Flint is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2008, 11:08 PM   #33
lumberjim
I can hear my ears
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 25,571
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flint View Post
The 40-hour week is something familiar to us;
that's less than 1/3 of the hours in a week....what do you do with all of that free time? ya know....it sounds appealing....
__________________
This body holding me reminds me of my own mortality
Embrace this moment, remember
We are eternal, all this pain is an illusion ~MJKeenan
lumberjim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 08:06 AM   #34
Spexxvet
Makes some feel uncomfortable
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 10,346
This site disagrees

Quote:
My interest with perfect shuffling started with a simple observation that the standard poker deck containing 52 cards will come back to its or original order if riffle shuffled precisely interleaving the two 26 haves 8 times.
So on the ninth time, the shuffle will be the same as the first shuffle.

He expects a "perfect riffle shuffle", though.
__________________
"I'm certainly free, nay compelled, to spread the gospel of Spex. " - xoxoxoBruce
Spexxvet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 08:06 AM   #35
Shawnee123
Why, you're a regular Alfred E Einstein, ain't ya?
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 21,206
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumberjim View Post
5?
Shawnee123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 08:28 AM   #36
SteveDallas
Your Bartender
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Philly Burbs, PA
Posts: 7,651
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flint View Post
everyone on the Earth is not going to drop everything and shuffle cards all day. We couldn't even survive that for very long.
Why should you start injecting reality and common sense into this discussion at this late date?? You might as well start thinking about whether those monkeys with the typewriters have had touch typing classes or not.
SteveDallas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 08:40 AM   #37
Flint
Snowflake
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Dystopia
Posts: 13,136
Okay, I hear what people are saying. You want more shuffles getting done, okay. Let’s look at that.

I’m going by HLJ’s calculation (I’m too lazy to do it myself) that in 9.e+33 permutations you would have a 50% chance of repeating the same shuffle.

I’m using the entire population of planet Earth (6,648,429,413), and I’ll have them shuffle one deck of cards per second, year-round. It would take 42,925,646,062,489,266.972805985537223 years to get through 9.e+33 permutations.

How long is that? Well, the Earth is estimated to be 4.54 billion years old. It’s 9,454,988.1194910279675784109112819 times longer than that.

So, if every living person on the Earth shuffled one deck of cards per second, for 9 million times longer than the Earth has existed, there would be a 50% chance of the same shuffle coming up.

THE SAME EXACT SHUFFLE HAS NEVER HAPPENED, AND NEVER WILL HAPPEN. EVER.
__________________
******************
There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there
it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your
expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever
gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio
Flint is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 09:16 AM   #38
lumberjim
I can hear my ears
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 25,571
unless it does...
__________________
This body holding me reminds me of my own mortality
Embrace this moment, remember
We are eternal, all this pain is an illusion ~MJKeenan
lumberjim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 10:04 AM   #39
Clodfobble
UNDER CONDITIONAL MITIGATION
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 20,012
It totally happened to me the other day. Take my word for it.
Clodfobble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 07:52 PM   #40
HungLikeJesus
Only looks like a disaster tourist
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: above 7,000 feet
Posts: 7,208
Would you settle for 1% chance?
__________________
Keep Your Bodies Off My Lawn

SteveDallas's Random Thread Picker.
HungLikeJesus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 07:55 PM   #41
kerosene
Touring the facilities
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: The plains of Colorado
Posts: 3,476
Flint, are you OCD?
kerosene is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 07:56 PM   #42
Flint
Snowflake
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Dystopia
Posts: 13,136
Quote:
Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus View Post
Would you settle for 1% chance?
If you're offering to calculate how many permutations of 52! you would have to go through to have a 1% probability of repeating a permutation...
I would love to know that.
__________________
******************
There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there
it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your
expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever
gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio
Flint is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 10:30 PM   #43
HungLikeJesus
Only looks like a disaster tourist
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: above 7,000 feet
Posts: 7,208
I'd better present my logic to see if anyone disagrees.

(n*(n-1))/(2*52!) = P; solve for P, where P = probability of 2 or more matching shuffled decks in n shuffles.


(n-1)^2 < n*(n-1) < n^2, so

(n-1)^2/(2*52!) < n*(n-1)/(2*52!) < n^2/(2*52!),
so the first equation can be simplified (for large values of n) as

n^2 ~= P*2*52!

n = square_root(P*2*52!)

If P = 0.5 (50%), n = 8.98e33
If P = 0.1 (10%), n = 4.0e33
If P = 0.01 (1%), n = 1.27e33

I just noticed a flaw in this logic. Can you see it?
__________________
Keep Your Bodies Off My Lawn

SteveDallas's Random Thread Picker.
HungLikeJesus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 11:04 PM   #44
classicman
barely disguised asshole, keeper of all that is holy.
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 23,401
lol - I can't even follow that!
__________________
"like strapping a pillow on a bull in a china shop" Bullitt
classicman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2008, 11:23 PM   #45
lumberjim
I can hear my ears
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 25,571
pull my finger!
__________________
This body holding me reminds me of my own mortality
Embrace this moment, remember
We are eternal, all this pain is an illusion ~MJKeenan
lumberjim is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:16 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.