Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered

[Tobiasly]

It looks like UBL was wounded by shrapnel in that attack on the Tora Bora caves, but has now recovered.

http://news.excite.com/article/id/45...9|reuters.html

I wouldn't be surprised if this brings new criticism of our military strategy in this war. The locals over there were saying that we relied heavily on letting the northern alliance and others do too much of the ground fighting, instead of sending in a well-organized infantry force to flush out UBL and his other baddies. And that a result of this technique was that many of them escaped.

From what I've seen, that doesn't look like it's too far off the mark. It seems like we may be too scared to put Americans at risk to get the job done. Sure, if we begin losing lots of our guys, public support will wane somewhat.. but what's the point of a war if we're not gonna take care of business?

[MaggieL]

Originally posted by Tobiasly
It looks like UBL was wounded by shrapnel in that attack on the Tora Bora caves, but has now recovered.

Opinions as to what hapened to bin Laden are a dime a dozen. Is there some reason why this one deserves more credibility than any of the others?

[Tobiasly]

Originally posted by MaggieL
Opinions as to what hapened to bin Laden are a dime a dozen. Is there some reason why this one deserves more credibility than any of the others?

"Osama bin Laden is alive and in good health after being wounded in an attack on his base in Afghanistan in December, an Arab journalist with close ties to the Saudi-born militant's associates said Monday."

Now, true, that's not the world's most reliable source, but I see no reason to doubt it. I could see if they said he were OK, and he wasn't.

But I doubt they'd say that he was "wounded by shrapnel" if that didn't really happen. And that would mean he was pretty close to the fighting, but we didn't seal off all their escape routes. And that means we lost the ground fight, if our objective was to prevent escape, which I believe it was.

Of course, he might really be dead, and they're saying this to cover that up. But it also seems like some rather high-ranking sources in the past week or so have said there's credible evidence that he's alive and in the Pakistan border region.

[spinningfetus]

Originally posted by Tobiasly
Sure, if we begin losing lots of our guys, public support will wane somewhat.. but what's the point of a war if we're not gonna take care of business?

Distract the American public from the ineptness of its current leadership and the means by which it gained that power...

[MaggieL]

Originally posted by Tobiasly

But it also seems like some rather high-ranking sources in the past week or so have said there's credible evidence that he's alive and in the Pakistan border region.

You mean like the head of German intelligence?

I don't think anybody who's talking knows, and those who really know aren't saying. If all it took to be authoritiative was to be "high-ranking", we could ask Dubya. :-)

They "wounded in the shoulder by shrapnel" is plausible given how he did not move his right arm at all in the last relased video that could be convincingly placed in time. I wonder what he's been doing for dialysis lately, if he is alive. Probably had some friends ship him another machien.

[Scred]

funny how a bunch of non-facts strung together can become a new non-fact. especially if it's brought to us by A Reliable Source®

[tw]

Originally posted by Tobiasly
But it also seems like some rather high-ranking sources in the past week or so have said there's credible evidence that he's alive and in the Pakistan border region.

With so much al Qaeda trapped in Tora Bora and with so much ability to strike on moments notice from the sky, it would appear, at first glance that US Central Command made a gross tactical error in not committing the Marine Expeditionary Force to Tora Bora. Literally dispatching platoons to observation posts in all valleys into the region could have made it difficult for bin Laden, et al to escape to Pakistan. Observers could have quickly obtained air attacks and, if necessary, got immediate transport out of hot regions.

But the US was short of troops. We had stalled sending in the Army or addtional Marines from CA. Maybe that too was a mistake. Apparently Central Command wanted to save the Marines for a backup force. That meant Tora Bora was porous.

However getting into Pakistan was not easy either. The Pakistanis had assembled massive troop formations that are rumored to have trapped al Qaeda in the Afganistan side of the border. It may have been a beautiful flanking maneuver by al Qaeda. Some quick terrorism in Kashmir forced Pakistan to move most of their military to the Indian border. That opened the border for al Qaeda (and probably bin Laden) to escape to either cities or tribal regions of Pakistan.

Even the Japanese are involved in a search. They are supplying the British navy off the Pakistan coast where so far tens of thousands of ships and boats have been inspected for al Qaeda suspects. First two suspects were apprehended yesterday after a one hour high speed chase.

Where is he? Who knows. In hindsight, the US did error in Tora Bora. But then at the time, their overly conservative approach was typical of a general, Tommy Franks, who also commands too far away from FL and from George Jr's TX ranch (where he was at the time).

[Tobiasly]

Originally posted by Scred
funny how a bunch of non-facts strung together can become a new non-fact. especially if it's brought to us by A Reliable Source®

So at what point do a bunch of "non-facts" become something that maybe people should pay attention to?

In hindsight of 9/11, there were a bunch of "non-facts" that might have tipped us off as to what was going to happen. Sure, it's easy to look back now and say we should have seen this or that, but my point is that just because something isn't proven and verified and coming out of the the president's or some general's mouth doesn't mean it's <I>not</I> true.

During the Tora Bora battle, there were several officers from the northern alliance stating the same thing -- that lots of al Qaeda got away because we didn't have enough troops on the ground. Is that a "non-fact", or is that A Reliable Source? What is your basis for making such a determination?

Do you believe everything the president says, or are those non-facts too? Or does it take something being caught on the 11 o'clock news before you'll believe it?

[vsp]

"Think about [the wonders of Photoshop] every time you see a photo in the straight media....I don't know if that [Elian in the closet facing a gun] photo is real. I don't even know if ELIAN GONZALEZ is real, for that matter."
-- Jello Biafra, "Become the Media"

[MaggieL]

Originally posted by Tobiasly

In hindsight of 9/11, there were a bunch of "non-facts" that might have tipped us off as to what was going to happen.

All the stuff I've heard cited along those lines were facts--actual intelligence take--rather than non-facts. There's a difference between intel and rumors, and I'm sure as a military guy you appreciate that.

...my point is that just because something isn't proven and verified and coming out of the the president's or some general's mouth doesn't mean it's <I>not</I> true.

But this is a Arab journalist quoting an unnamed source. How much credibility is that worth?

Just because plausible detail is attached doesn't make it in the least more credible, because festooning your story with plausible detail is one of the first lessons when constructing disinformation. Just like those urban legends where the business traveller wakes up in an ice-filled bathtub minus a kidney, sprinkling a lie with known truths causes some of their credibility to rub off on the lie inside.

During the Tora Bora battle, there were several officers from the northern alliance stating the same thing -- that lots of al Qaeda got away because we didn't have enough troops on the ground. Is that a "non-fact", or is that A Reliable Source?

It sounds like what you'd expect to hear from a soldier who was frustrated that some of the enemy he was sent to kill got away.

[Scred]

just cos someone says it's so, and it sounds plausible, doesn't validate it.

for example: dozens of al qaeda have snuck into the US in container ships, prepared to attack US targets. true or false? according to sources®, it's true.

http://www.debka.com/LADEN/body_laden.html

they also claimed in May that OBL was in Kashmir. plausible, but unverifiable. and not "credible" by any means.

these same sources® claimed back in November that Russia was invading Afghanistan from the north with 100s of thousands of troops. dont recall hearing any more bout that one.


i think that i shall come out with a press release stating that OBL was injured at tora bora, and subsequently died of his injuries. i will back this up with the fact that nobody has seen or heard of him since then. no tv, nothing. for a man that obsessed with CNN and Al Jazeera, that's proof enough for me, the hack journalist. i'll add in a few uncorroborated reports of tall guys being seen in coffins, and that should be good enough.

[elSicomoro]

Originally posted by MaggieL
I wonder what he's been doing for dialysis lately, if he is alive. Probably had some friends ship him another machien.

He has friends at Baxter in NJ who shipped him a portable peritoneal dialysis machine and supplies. They made a rudimentary peritoneal catheter for him out in the desert.

[MaggieL]

Originally posted by sycamore


He has friends at Baxter in NJ who shipped him a portable peritoneal dialysis machine and supplies. They made a rudimentary peritoneal catheter for him out in the desert.

I wonder if it makes his bathroom lights strobe?

[elSicomoro]

Originally posted by MaggieL
I wonder if it makes his bathroom lights strobe?

All the lights in the town nearby.

[Undertoad]

So.... all we have to do is watch for the strobe! Somebody notify NSA! (Oh, I forgot... we've already hit most of the keywords in this thread, they're already reading it)