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Old 04-03-2020, 03:29 PM   #121
henry quirk
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Originally Posted by BigV View Post
But even from that distance you're clear that a whole whack of public servants aren't doing their jobs right.

Huh.
Then explain why there are...

tents of overflowing sick people outside several major hospitals, refrigerated trucks in NYC hospital parking lots to hold dead bodies because the morgues are full, and (why) one NYC hospital just reported their first death due to care rationing (i.e., a ventilator could have saved the patient but they were all in use.)

I'm all eyes.

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Old 04-03-2020, 04:14 PM   #122
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What if this had been a biological attack on major metropolitan areas and transportation hubs instead of a natural occurrence? No difference. Everyone knows the Feds can't get relief into place fast enough from experience with previous disasters. It comes down to local and individual preparedness. Both usually drop the ball and neither change their ways afterwards. This has been covered in the Cellar before:

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Ö For the same reason (i.e. inadequate collective defensive systems), some people want to have their own gas masks and chemical protective suits. The government isn't going to issue these items to civilians, except for a few politically high profile locations, even if there is a chemical, biological, or radiological (e.g. dirty bomb) attack let alone just because people may live in a high risk area for these.

That's why it's BYOG(guns), A(ammo), PG(protective gear), W(water), F(food), ... BYOEverything; or, BYEBYE! It's simply not irrational these days to be prepared if one has the means.
You can lead a horse to water; but, you can't make it drink... not unless you give it a rap in the throat. - Rodney Dangerfield

Municipalities that are suffering can consider this their rap in the throat.
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Old 04-03-2020, 11:45 PM   #123
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I don't think Johns Hopkins would lie, but I seriously doubt they or anyone else can get accurate numbers at this point. I just read this afternoon several people in China claim the government undercounted deaths by at least 40,000. Seems a lot of governments are doing that to make themselves look better.
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Old 04-04-2020, 12:13 AM   #124
henry quirk
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I don't think Johns Hopkins would lie, but I seriously doubt they or anyone else can get accurate numbers at this point.

The JH folks would probably agree.

Note the word approximately...

Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 1,026,974 cases worldwide; 245,573 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 3, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 53,975 deaths reported worldwide; 6,058 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 3, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.


I just read this afternoon several people in China claim the government undercounted deaths by at least 40,000. Seems a lot of governments are doing that to make themselves look better.

I have no doubt the commies in china are deflatin' the death count just as I have no doubt some of the commies (er, I mean socialists oops, I mean progressives) here, in the U.S., are inflatin' death counts.
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Old 04-04-2020, 03:34 AM   #125
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Looking at the CDC numbers they're still only estimates for the '17-'18 season and nothing on the '18-'19 season.
What are they doing waiting to see if they stay dead?

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As I understand it there is a shitload of flu types out there and each year they predict which ones they have to cover with the vaccine du jour... er, du year?
Some years it works well and some years not so well, '17-'18 not so good and '14-'15 really bad.
With the death toll ranging from 12,000 to 61,000 for the last 10 years.

Of course there's no vaccine for the corvid-19, there isn't even enough tests kits.

I also saw this...

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Bastards are picking on me, elder abuse I say.
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Old 04-04-2020, 08:31 AM   #126
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Wash your hands, don't touch your pretty face, don't be so touchy-feely, consult your doc if you're worried, don't look to employees for solutions, don't listen to talkin' heads, and calm down.
I'm not sure you have a clear picture of the emotional state of folks who are being careful, we're very calm here. I could imagine your terror of expert advice and government, but I hope that isn't your state. I have employees for exactly this situation, so that they can advise me about things I lack expertise in. I am hopeful that due to social distancing the death count will be low enough so that you can continue to make your claims.
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Old 04-04-2020, 11:33 AM   #127
henry quirk
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I'm not sure you have a clear picture of the emotional state of folks who are being careful

Sure I do. My urgin' isn't for folks like you & me. All the items on my list...

Wash your hands, don't touch your pretty face, don't be so touchy-feely, consult your doc if you're worried, don't look to employees for solutions, don't listen to talkin' heads, and calm down.

...are commonsensical things I was doin' before commie flu. I imagine most of you were doin' the same ('cept for the gov lovers/apologists).


I could imagine your terror of expert advice and government

Terror? No, annoyance.


but I hope that isn't your state.

I assume you're talkin' about Louisiana and not of mind.

In the tri-parish area things are calm, local elected folks do their job (advise & caution). Insofar as I can tell, this is mostly the case throughout the state (with the exception of Orleans [three hours to the east of me] where the bulk of Louisiana Fu Manflu infection is happenin').

On the state level there's a thinly disguised hysteria at play, evidenced by willingness on the Governor's part to treat the whole state as a hot spot.


I have employees for exactly this situation, so that they can advise me about things I lack expertise in.

I consulted my doc, I do my own readin', keep my own counsel. I mind the elected folks only to navigate 'em.


I am hopeful that due to social distancing the death count will be low enough so that you can continue to make your claims.

Me too. As for my claims: I'm just lookin' at global , national, regional, state, and local numbers (mostly I use John Hopkins).
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Old 04-04-2020, 11:51 AM   #128
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It must be tough for Fauci to stand next to Pence and Pennywise and listen to their prevarications.
You can see his pain sometimes, but he realizes the country needs someone sane near the helm.
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Old 04-04-2020, 11:55 AM   #129
xoxoxoBruce
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These people can do what they want as long as they stay away from me.
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Old 04-04-2020, 12:01 PM   #130
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That's a pretty big germ circle.
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Old 04-04-2020, 12:09 PM   #131
sexobon
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Sure, it's a germ-in-nation.
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Old 04-04-2020, 02:26 PM   #132
henry quirk
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These people can do what they want as long as they stay away from me.
They're playin' outside in a severe thunderstorm (not the imaginary hurricane bein' foisted up as real by the gregariousists).
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Old 04-04-2020, 06:15 PM   #133
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severe thunderstorm, not a hurricane

From George Avery, PhD. MPA


Dr. Avery has a PhD in Health Services Research from the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, and has conducted significant research in the area of public health emergency preparedness, including five journal articles and two book chapters on the topic. He has served on several CDC advisory boards, including a panel on preparedness and emergency response centers, and consulted for the Defense Department on Medical Civic Action program doctrine. He has edited a special issue of the research journal Bioterrorism and Biodefense and served as a reviewer for the Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management as well as Disaster Medicine and Public Health. He is a health services researcher with a medical analytics firm in the Midwest, and has formerly been a professor with the public health program at Purdue and worked from 1990-2000 with the Arkansas Department of Healthís Division of Public Health Laboratories.



We are seeing a panic reaction towards the newly emerged SARS-COVID-2 [Wuhan] epidemic, marked by panic buying of items including the much-joked about toilet paper, drastic action by political figures that often impinges on basic civil rights, and potentially devastating lasting economic impact. Much of this has been fueled by naÔve and sensationalist reporting of fatality rates, such as a March 10, 2020 report by the Bloomberg news service that implies that 3.4-3.5% of infected individuals die (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-virus-update ). This has caused comparisons to the 1919 Influenza A:H1N1 pandemic and its 2.5% case fatality rate, which would qualify as a level 5 event on the CDCís Pandemic Severity Index (PSI) and has led to a panicked overreaction worldwide. This case fatality rate, however, to a trained epidemiologist is obviously a significant overestimation of the actual fatality rate from the disease.

Ascertainment bias is a systematic error in statistical estimation of a population parameter resulting from errors in measurement - usually, in undermeasurement of a parameter. In this case, we are underestimating the actual number of cases in the population, which is the denominator in the calculation of the estimated case fatality rate. We are accurately estimating deaths, but to get the case fatality rate, we divide deaths by our estimate of the number of cases. Because that it too low due to measurement error, the estimate of the case fatality rate is too high.

For example, for a hypothetical disease if we have three deaths and observed ten cases, then the case fatality rate is 30% (3/10=0.3 or 30%). If, however, there were actually 300 cases, and only 10 were observed and reported, ascertainment bias has led us to underestimate the cases and overestimate the case fatality rate, which is actually 1% (3/300=0.01 or 1%).

In this case, in the absence of population-based screening to more actually estimate the total number of cases, we are only counting cases who are sick enough to seek health care -- almost all disease reports are made by healthcare professionals. We are missing people who have no more than a cold or who are infected but show no symptoms, individuals who almost certainly make up the overwhelming majority of actual cases. Thus, as in my hypothetical example, we are overestimating the case fatality rate for the disease.

There is, however, data available on SARS-COVID-2 [Wuhan] that allows us to get a better grasp on the actual case fatality rates for the virus.

One case is that of the cruise ship Diamond Princess, which achieved some notoriety from the well-publicized outbreak among its 3711 passengers and crew in January and February of 2006. Held aboard in constricted quarters, the population was subject to 3068 polymerase chain reaction (pcr) tests, which identified 634 individuals (17%) as infected, with over half of these infections (328 ) producing no symptoms. Seven infected passengers died, all of them over the age of 70. Adjusting the data for age, researchers at the London Institute of Tropical Medicine have estimated a fatality rate per infection (IFR) for the epidemic in China of 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2-1.2%) during the same period. This is far below the earlier estimates of 3.4% or greater that were promoting panic over the epidemic. See Russell et al, Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, MedRXIV 2020 at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...773v2.full.pdf.

South Korea has also implemented far wider population-based screening than the US, expanding their screening past suspected cases to voluntary population screening in geographies frequented by identified cases. As of March 15, as Stanford University economist Richard Epstein has noted, they performed over 235,000 tests and identified 8, 162 infections with 75 deaths (CFR=0.91%). Again, only about 10% of the deaths were in the population under the age of 60. See https://www.hoover.org/research/coro...-isnt-pandemic . While their population screening efforts were far better than that of the United States, this was still not a broad-based screening effort (such as was used on the Diamond Princess), being biased because while it looked at a broader population, it still was enriched with cases by looking only at a segment of the population with a higher risk. Still, the case fatality rate is significantly below the 3.4% rate that caused the public panic.

What we are likely seeing, in my estimation, is an epidemic with a real case fatality rate between 0.2 and 0.5%, which is similar to the 1957 Asian Influenza A:H2N2 or 1968 Hong Kong Influenza A:H3N2 pandemics, which were also essentially virgin field respiratory epidemics. These pandemics rate, not as PSI5 events, but as PSI2 events on the CDC scale. They are certainly atypical and more severe than a PSI1 event (such as a routine seasonal flu epidemic), but not a shattering event like the 1919 influenza A:H1N1 pandemic. These earlier pandemics essentially tripled the number of deaths due to influenza experienced annually, and were posed little long-term economic or other damage to the population despite being handled without the extreme measures that are currently being adopted or proposed by political figures. Like those pandemic events, SARS-COVID-2 [Wuhan] has its most significant impact on elderly or otherwise compromised individuals, with few fatalities observed in the population under the age of 60. From what we have observed, half of those infected show no symptoms, 40% show mild symptoms such as a cold, and only about 2% advance to serious or critical illness. What is needed now is for politicians and the population to pause, take a deep breath, and address the epidemic with rational measures, such as social distancing of the older population, ring screening around identified cases, quarantine of identified infected individuals, and adequate hospital triage systems to protect other patients and health care staff rom infection in order to preserve our ability to treat the most severe cases. This is a strategy identified by myself and colleagues at Purdue in 2007 to ensure adequate capacity to deal with another true influenza pandemic, and it applies to this one as well.
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Old 04-04-2020, 07:12 PM   #134
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He lost me on his first point about panic buying of toilet paper. Heís wrong about toilet paper. There is a shortage of toilet paper not because of panic buying, but because people are not shitting at work and using the industrial grade commercial toilet paper. My own toilet paper consumption has increased 250% and yet I am not shitting more.

My daughter is home from college, and she is using our toilet paper exclusively.

Our household consumption of toilet paper has probably doubled or maybe tripled.

If you multiply that out for all households, you wind up with a shortage of toilet paper. Itís simple math.

My employers building likely has a glut of toilet paper, and there are pallets of commercial grade toilet paper sitting in warehouses somewhere while the consumer grade shelves are empty.

Itís the same thing with food. Not panic buying. People are eating at home when they used to eat out. The restaurant supply houses have lots of food that they canít sell, and the supermarkets are empty.
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Old 04-04-2020, 07:41 PM   #135
henry quirk
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again, John Hopkins

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases as of 4-4-20

Total Confirmed: 1,196,553

Total Deaths: 64,549

Total Recovered: 246,152

-----

World population: 8 billion

Numbers: pay attention.
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