HN51 aware?

[Cyclefrance]

The alarm won't go away this time! Europe is finally switching on to the threat of highly human-infective HN51 (Bird Flu) as it gets closer and closer to our shores.

Predictions of 750,000 deaths in UK alone are putting this one on a par with the flu outbreak of 1918 (Spanish Flu) which claimed 200,000 lives in the UK and 600,000 in the USA. Vaccines that could protect against the curent strain have been developed, but time to market is likely to see these arrive too late to catch the expected epidemic and by the time it is here the strain will have mutated anyway rendering it useless (or so the medics say). Death occurs normaly within 48 hours of symptoms - the young seem mpore at risk than the elderly.

Our government is turning a blind eye to the current wave of publicity and has no battle plan in place or on the cards it seems.

How about in the USA? Ready or not? Generally aware or uninformed?

Well, I hadn't heard of it until reading your post. Out in my part of the world people worry about Hanta virus (carried by rodents like ground squirrels) and, yes, the bubonic plague which is endemic in New Mexico and also carried by rodents. Last year squirrels with the plague were discovered as far north as Colorado Springs.

I will now begin shooting all humming birds on sight.

[wolf]

Your hand-eye coordination isn't that good, but it might be a good excuse for when you decide to shoot the axe murderer. "But officer, I missed the plague-ridden hummingbird and he was just standing there."

Cycle, they said the same thing to us about SARS.

[tw]

How this disease advances is rather interesting. It does not just move west or east. Birds carry it south where they infect other birds. These second birds return north next season, but a little more west. The next year those birds go south and infect more bird who, in turn, go back north but a little more west. IOW the disease tends to move north and south significantly while moving slowly east or west.

Activity has intensified in understanding bird migration patterns.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by wolf

Cycle, they said the same thing to us about SARS.

Yes, but you have to admit they took some extraordinary precautions with SARS. Plus it's easier to quarantine people than birds.

Originally Posted by tw

How this disease advances is rather interesting. It does not just move west or east. Birds carry it south where they infect other birds. These second birds return north next season, but a little more west. The next year those birds go south and infect more bird who, in turn, go back north but a little more west. IOW the disease tends to move north and south significantly while moving slowly east or west.

Activity has intensified in understanding bird migration patterns.

Indeed it has:

[bargalunan]

Green Card or Bird Flu ?!?!

Oh, and better watch out for your puddy tat , too!

[Cyclefrance]

Allowing for some hyping by the media this article in yday's Sunday Times on the bird flu is reasonably factual - it runs to 3 pages - pages 2 and 3 give more solid background. Also references and links to other articles appearing in the paper on this subject.

[EmbraceLife]

Hi. I'm concerned about the bird flu and have been reading about it for several years now. Last night on network tv, there was a story telling warning the US that is was coming - Prime Time / ABC.

http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Inve...1130392&page=1

Here's some more interesting links about the bird flu:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,165009,00.html

http://health.groups.yahoo.com/group/cheal/message/279

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian.../en/index.html

[lumberjim]

hi there, new hippie. welcome to the cellar. I have a few questions for you:

1. How many roads must a man walk down?

7. What is the opposite of 'above me'?

5. Do think I'm pretty?

4. If there were no such thing as shoes, would we do more swimming?

2. What is the sound of one elephant clapping?

14. What's brown and sticky?

3,978,432. If you get 23mpg from high test gas at $3.39 per gallon, and 19mpg from regular at $2.99 per gallon, which is more cost effective?

9. Where's the beef?

C. What is your Quest?

XXII. Is a blowjob in the parking lot out of the question?

[Kitsune]

Got your canned tuna and powered milk stashed under your bed?

ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu.

Ain't that lovely.

[Cyclefrance]

As far as I can tell, no one yet knows how and when (notice, no 'if') this strain will mutate such that it transfers as an airborne virus from one human to another (the worst case scenario).

Right now the strain only transfers between birds and aparently not all species - most susceptive are chicken, turkeys, ducks and other waterborne birds suggesting that it may transfer via water contamination. It has certainly moved quickly into Europe, with isolated (if we believe government reporting) cases in France alreday - some say it is already in the UK but a lid is on this fact being published.

Human infection so far has arisen through ingesting infected animal blood or other tissue, not from breathing the same air.

The chance that the virus will mutate to become airborne between humans is a relatively big jump, as is the option that it mutates into something extremely fatal as opposed to having its potency alternatively reduced and becoming an extension of an existing flu virus, maybe more virulent but not as fatal as it otherwise could be.

What alarms everyone is that should the worst case scenario arise then it will spread like wildfire. Given that we cannot really begin to manufacture an effective vaccine until it mutates, that leaves our governments and scientists with a teensy-weensy little problem....

All still too many unknown quantities at this stage, and there's not much we can do to prevent its arrival anyway, only hope that where it is possible to take steps to reduce the spread amongst birds (such as keeping stock inside barns and therefore isolated) that these are strictly followed. Trouble is that there will likely always be some farmers of chickens, turkeys and the like who will fail to do this - that's what feeds the concerns that it will get out of control. And we have only just about recovered from the BSE epidemic that spread because of such a problem a few years back....

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Cyclefrance

The chance that the virus will mutate to become airborne between humans is a relatively big jump, as is the option that it mutates into something extremely fatal as opposed to having its potency alternatively reduced and becoming an extension of an existing flu virus, maybe more virulent but not as fatal as it otherwise could be.

True on both counts, but having its potency reduced isn't necessarily a good thing. Right now, something like 50-75% of the people infected can expect to die a fairly rapid death. But at least they if they die quickly, they won't go on to infect others. If the potency drops down to something like 5%, which is what the Spanish Flu was, then you can expect those 95% who don't die to walk around infecting others. The percentage of those who die of the infection may be lower, but the total number of dead can be much much higher.

Also, the chance that the virus will mutate so it can spread between humans is a huge jump, as you said. But the real danger isn't that it will happen once the birds in the West get infected. Here in the West, we keep our poultry in barns and can isolate them pretty easily. In Asia, the poultry is kept outside a lot more. And there are millions of domestic fowl in Asia. You can think of each one as a petrie dish, where an experimental strain improvement program is going on. If it mutates in Asia, it will spread from human to human like wildfire. No part of the world will be safe.

It really doesn't look too good.

I spend a fair bit of of time wondering if I should stock up on food. I figure I'd need about 2-4 months worth. That's a lot of food. And it ain't cheap. If I go that route, then I have to consider how much I'd be willing to defend that food in a real crisis, and do I plan for that by going out and getting a gun today? It would make sense to. I just really don't want to start down that path. I'm not the loony survivalist type.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by glatt

I spend a fair bit of of time wondering if I should stock up on food. I figure I'd need about 2-4 months worth. That's a lot of food. And it ain't cheap. If I go that route, then I have to consider how much I'd be willing to defend that food in a real crisis, and do I plan for that by going out and getting a gun today? It would make sense to. I just really don't want to start down that path. I'm not the loony survivalist type.

That's a bit much. Even the people that survived the pandemic of 1918 didn't survive because they holed up with a gun and food for months. Just wash your hands, man, and no more stealing that random kid's candy unless they haven't shoved it in their mouth, yet.

Originally Posted by glatt

You can think of each one as a petrie dish, where an experimental strain improvement program is going on.

Or, in layman's terms: "chicken = daycare center"