What Iraqis Really Think

[Undertoad]

http://www.aei.org/news/newsID.19153...ews_detail.asp

Zogby and AEI conduct as scientific a poll of Iraqis as they can manage. And the news is pretty good:

-- Iraqis are optimistic. Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32 percent say things will become much better.

-- Asked which is closer to their own view--"Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things"--five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq.

-- Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities--neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S.--the most popular model by far was the U.S.

-- Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33 percent want an Islamic government; a solid 60 percent say no.

-- We asked "Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?" A thoroughly unforgiving Iraqi public stated by 74 percent to 18 percent that Saddam's henchmen should be punished.

[Tobiasly]

Awesome find UT, thanks. I was just thinking last night how it would be great if someone could conduct a scientific poll of such issues in Iraq, although it would be very difficult. I had no idea one was actually underway.

I'd mentioned before how my experiences with the Iraqi population were at great contrast to what seems to be portrayed in the media -- a country full of Islamic fundamentalists and Saddam loyalists who want us to leave as soon as possible. The media love to play up our problems in the Sunni Triangle, and seem to ignore the leanings of the rest of the country.

I also find it very interesting that this poll came out four days ago, yet I can't remember it being mentioned by any of the major U.S. media outlets.

[elSicomoro]

Interesting, though I'm skeptical, given that:

--It's the AEI (though they are working with Zogby)
--It's just another poll
--They didn't include Iraq's largest city
--UT left this one out: Inchoate anxiety toward the U.S. showed up when we asked Iraqis if they thought the U.S. would help or hurt Iraq over a five-year period. By 50 percent to 36 percent they chose hurt over help.

Perhaps they could do a poll every month or so to see how the attitudes shift. And since we're going to be hanging out with the Iraqis for a while, it makes sense. It could become a "job approval" rating of sorts.

[Undertoad]

As a news hound, I can vouch. The only way to stay truly informed is through blogs. This link came via the essayist USS Clueless. His current entry is chock full of food for thought.

And then there's Comedy Central's "Tough Crowd", where Christopher Hitchens was a guest last week and described how well things are going, especially with the Kurds.

Also very illuminating is this BBC web chat with "Baghdad blogger" Salam Pax. The guy is not a good enough writer to give us a sense of how things are going, but when people ask him pointed questions, the answers are much better than one might imagine.

[Whit]

      I find it interesting that 40% said democracy wouldn't work but the US govermental model was "the most popular by far." I suppose that makes sense with five choices though.

[SteveDallas]

Originally posted by Undertoad
The only way to stay truly informed is through blogs.

OK, so if I want to toss out my lifetime reliance on the Traditional Media(tm), what stuff ought I to be reading?

[Undertoad]

Oh man, everybody's got their own set of favorites. You just have to find the ones that are appealing to you.

Almost all of them point to other sites to check out. That USS Clueless appeals to me because the guy is an engineer, and he approaches a lot of things from an engineering standpoint.

For sheer volume it's Instapundit.

The best writer by far is Lileks, once a day M-F.

Vodkapundit has an appealing voice and is generally sensible.

Winds of Change takes on an awful lot with multiple writers.

But everyone will find their own that is appealing.

[Bob]

the first such poll conducted was organised by the Spectator (established, heavyweight political commentary magazine in UK) in partnership with Channel 4 (UK network tv station) and conducted by YouGov (respected internet pollsters). they questioned 800 people at 20 different locations in Baghdad, last June. a selection of the questions/results follow:

Q. Do you think that the US & British Govt war against Saddam's regime was right or wrong?
Right 50%
Wrong 27%
Not stated 23%

Q. What is your view toward the US & British forces currently stationed in Iraq?
Friendly 26%
Hostile 18%
Neither friendly nor hostile 50%
Not stated 6%

Q. Would you prefer to see the US & Britain stay in Iraq or pull out?
Should stay a few years 31%
Should stay about a year 25%
Should stay a while, but leave within 12 months 20%
Should leave Iraq immediately 13%
Not stated 11%

Is Iraq a more dangerous or safer place for you to live since the US & Britain invaded?
Much more dangerous 54%
A little more dangerous 21%
No real change 10%
A little safer 11%
Much safer 3%
Not stated 1%

(There were more questions, but I'm tired of typing them.)

A mixed bag, then, but I'd say largely encouraging.

[classicman]

tasty tidbit here - wonder if they've done a poll like this more recently

[Beevee]

What else would you expect from a US backed survey?

When you get the same results from an Iranian backed survey, you might have something to crow about.

[regular.joe]

Is this because the Iranian survey would only talk to Shia Clergy, sympathetic with Iran?

Maybe I'm reading too much into your statement BeeVee, all American's taking a survey in Iraq can't be trusted?

I wonder if the Iranian government would accept an independent survey company like Zogby to do a survey? I don't trust that they would.

The only way to really know though, is to travel to Iraq and tool around with a pad and pencil. Talk to some Iraqi's. Include Shia, Sunni, Wahabi, Arabs, non Arabs, Christian, Turkoman, Kurds. Travel to each province and see the population grouping. Get a real good feel for what the Iraqi's as a whole are looking for.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by Beevee

What else would you expect from a US backed survey?

Show us the Canadian one. Oh, thats right Canada is too busy ridin on America's coattails to actually do a survey of their own. Go do your own effin survey if you don't like it.

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Beevee

What else would you expect from a US backed survey?

Did you mean to say a UK-backed survey.

When you get the same results from an Iranian backed survey, you might have something to crow about.

Did you mean to say an Iraqi-backed survey.

Originally Posted by sycamore

--UT left this one out: Inchoate anxiety toward the U.S.

No surprise; The anxiety or the "leaving it out", which makes me sceptical (but not in total disbelief) of the whole presentation.

Originally Posted by Beevee

When you get the same results from an Iranian backed survey, you might have something to crow about.

Ah!