December 7, 2006: Bad skiing in Alps

[Undertoad]

Well this is one of those I's of the D that just strike me, in a strange way. I don't know if it'll strike you too. There's nothing immediately mind-boggling about it, but it tells a very large story that gets larger the longer you think about it.

What you're looking at there is the bottom of a ski run in Val Gardena, Italy. Officials are trying to figure out whether to cancel World Cup races that are scheduled to be held there. There have already been several races cancelled this year.

In one sense, it's fascinating to see snow making and snow management reach the point where they could concentrate all of it on one particular run. Fascinating to see what they'll do to try to put on the event.

In another sense, it's evidence of a larger story, because the Alps are experiencing their warmest period in 1300 years.

Of course, you don't want to connect the picture to the global warming theories, because it's only evidence of one area during one particular month. And you don't want to specifically look for evidence of global warming, because if you look for it, you'll find it. Psychologists call it Confirmation bias, a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. If it's freezing cold, you don't put it into your pile of evidence; if it's warm, you do.

(At this point, I believe there is roughly 99% scientific consensus that warming is occurring, two-thirds consensus about man's role in it and no consensus whatsoever about what should be done.)