Here they Come Again!

[tw]

Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon
Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine
Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William

Hurricane season started 1 Jun. Four tropical storms have occurred. Debby is landing on the Gulf coast.

Rarely do any form this early in the season. Ironically the National Hurricane center is predicting a normal hurricane season of 9 to 15 tropical storms. 4 to 8 being hurricanes. And 1 to 3 being a major hurricane

Hiding out in the Rockies (Colorado) is Dr Gray. He predicts slightly less activity. 13 tropical storms. 5 hurricanes. 2 major hurricanes.

[Clodfobble]

It's the little things that make you human, tw. I love your hurricane obsession, no joking.

[elSicomoro]

Debby is apparently churning slowly off the coast but causing tornadoes already. Could be an interesting storm if it picks up speed and makes landfall in SW Florida.

[Cyber Wolf]

Originally Posted by tw

Rarely do any form this early in the season. Ironically the National Hurricane center is predicting a normal hurricane season of 9 to 15 tropical storms. 4 to 8 being hurricanes. And 1 to 3 being a major hurricane

Consider the weather we've had the past 9 months. In general, all the seasons and seasonal markers (first snow, last frost, etc) have come 3-6 weeks early for just about every part of the country. Here in the mideast swamp, we didn't have much of a winter, spring temperatures and weather patterns were showing up in early February, our first 90+ degree day of the year was also in February, tree pollen came out early and there were tropical systems showing up as much as 10 days before the historical start. So I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with an unremarkable (in terms of stats) hurricane season this year... it's just that instead of June 1 to Nov 1, it'd be more like May 20 to... what... middle of October? If this early pattern continues, I'll be surprised if a storm forms in October at all.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by tw

Kirk

Wouldn't it be cool if there was a hurricane Spock?

I would be really easy to predict too, since it would only follow the most logical path.

[tw]

A few days ago, it had only a 20% chance of becoming a named storm. It is now called Ernesto. If it follows the track of previous weather, then it should pass south of Cuba and land somewhere in the center Gulf of Mexico. Maybe by Tuesday.

Gulf has achieved water temperatures approaching 85 degrees F (30 degrees C). With even warmer water in the center. Once that 20% storm got into the warmest water in the Atlantic, it became a tropical storm. We should expect it to become a hurricane in the even warmer Gulf. Most probable target may be Mexico or south since prevailing winds have been southbound. However that could easily change by next week.

Now would be a good time to start stocking for this year's hurricane party.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by sycamore

Debby is apparently churning slowly off the coast but causing tornadoes already. Could be an interesting storm if it picks up speed and makes landfall in SW Florida.

It would be even more interesting if it veers further West and Debby Does Dallas.

[tw]

Originally Posted by richlevy

It would be even more interesting if it veers further West and Debby Does Dallas.

If Ernesto does Dallas, then extremists will preach the evils of being gay. Any excuse to promote a political agenda.

[tw]

Ernesto is now predicted to enter the Gulf as expected. But another tropical storm has formed before even getting half way across the Atlantic. Before even getting into warmer water. Florence has a slightly more northern track that could threaten the east coast USA. Or maybe it just takes a right turn and heads for the Olympics. Making it in time for the closing ceremonies.

[classicman]

Tropical Storm Ernesto is(was) about 295 miles south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic with maximum sustained winds up to 50 mph. This system shows some weakening as it continues on a westward path at 18 mph. Meanwhile in the north, an area of low pressure over the Bahamas produces more showers and thunderstorms that reach into Florida. This system has a low, 10% chance of tropical cyclone development

Tropical Storm Florence stopped strengthening by early Sunday and was no longer expected to gain strength, the hurricane center said.
Florence's top sustained winds had slowed further to 40 mph (65 kph) by late Sunday and it was 925 miles (1,485 kilometers) west of the Cape Verde Islands. Forecasters said a gradual weakening was expected and the storm was likely to become just a tropical depression on Monday.

[tw]

Forecasters said a gradual weakening was expected and the storm was likely to become just a tropical depression on Monday.

I believe Katrina was only a tropical depression when it was in that same area.

[classicman]

It was a tropical storm - downgraded to a tropical depression.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Originally Posted by tw

If Ernesto does Dallas, then extremists will preach the evils of being gay. Any excuse to promote a political agenda.

As of course you should well know...

It's as if there's a political agenda with a man waggling from it. Koyaanisqatsi, baby.

[BigV]

Hiya UG. Long time, no see.

I consider your assessment of tw's balance a highly informed one.

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

It was a tropical storm - downgraded to a tropical depression.

As so many previous hurricanes also did. It is in a colder water region. Therefore woud not remain a tropical storm. What it can become will not be apparent until it moves back into warmer water. We will know this weekend.

Ernesto took the southern path. The Yucatan Pennisula will rip it apart.