Betting tips

[W.HI.P]

Latest Results
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Cincinnati Bengals(-3,0) 13-7 Baltimore Ravens ....WIN
Atlanta Falcons 24-14 Washington Redskins(-2,5) ....WIN
Clevland Browns 31-28 Kansas City Chiefs(-6,5) ....WIN
Miami Dolphins(-2,5) 10-24 Jacksonville Jaguars ....Loss
New York Giants 20-23 Dallas Cowboys(-6,5) ....WIN
Philadelphia Eagels 27-24 Carolina Panthers(-4,5) ....WIN

[W.HI.P]

N.F.L Pointsreads
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Clevland Browns- Pitchberg Steelers (-7.5)

This is really against basic logic to recomend a team that may be concentrating mostly on the upcoming draft.
Despite my better judgment, since its the only Thursday game, I will go out on a limb and say that should both teams play with equal effort it will be a field goal game, therefore a Clevland Browns win on this massive 7,5 spread.

Bet on the Browns

Baltimore Ravens - Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

This is such a big mistake, its not funny!
If I was fixing this spread,
I would make the Baltimore Ravens favorite at 6,5 or 7,5 points!
With the Chiefs here favorite at -2,5 points, it is one of the best bets of the week!

Bet on the Ravens!!!

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5 ) - Tampa Bay Bucs

Tricky 3,5 points here, as a 3 point win will be as good as any other for the Atlanta Falcons.
But the fact is, that the Bucs cannot score, and the passion alone that the Falcons will have in this match-up should be enough to secure a touchdown lead and one way or another, and keep it.

Bet on the Falcons

Minnesota Vikings - Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Sure this is lopsided, as the Vikings should be 2,5 point favorites, but when the Vikings are bad, they're really bad, so avoid this one.

Tennessee Titans (-2,5) Houston Texans

Vince is gonna be highlighted for this game, it is one for him to shine in.
The Tennessee Titans will easily cover this 2,5 pointspread.

Bet on the Titans

New York Giants - Carolina Panthers (-3.0)

There's a huge difference betweeen these two teams.
The New York Giants are by far a better team on every level.
Replace young Manning with any of 7 quarterbacks I can think of, and they are in NFC final for sure!
there's also a security blanket of -3,0 points.
I suggest you take it.

Bet on the Giants!

Indianapolis Colts ( -2.5) - Jacksonville Jaguars

This may just be the final game of the regular season that the Indianapolis Colts play with effort.
The effort will come in this one, because it seals it.
The Jaguars will not be a factor this year, despite some people's earlier predictions.
The 2,5 points will be very easy to cover for super Manning!

Bet on the Colts!

Philadelphia Eagels (-2.5) - Washington Redskins

I'm an Eagels fan, but I'm realistic.
The Eagels have a slim chance of making the playoffs, despite how possible it actually looks at the moment, and even more so, if the pull off a win this week, and even if the Eagels make the playoffs, they have no chance of getting to their goal, which is no other than the superbowl, not without Mcnabb. Best thing for the Franchise in my eyes, is a defeat this week, and next week, despite the economical consequence.
Its time to assure #1 candidacy for the superbowl next year for the Eagels.
And they will be should mcnabb finally last a whole year.
Those who saw him this year, KNOW!

Oakland Raiders - Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5)

There is no suprise here, no matter how good the Raiders defence is, and no matter how they'll try to stop this Bengals offence, it will not be enough.
The only weakness the Bengals have is that they can't stop the run.
No matter how good of a running week the Raiders have, it will not be enough.
This has Bengals written all over it,
but the spread is a little big for my tastes at this time of the year.

New England Patriots (-3.5) - Miami Dolphins

Respect to the guys who formed this spread.
Although they know Brown is out,
they do not overestimate the Patriots as I would expect them to.
Without Brown, the Dolphins hopes of a playoff birth have reached nil.
Its time to look towards next year guys, nice try though!
Avoid

Green Bay Packers - San Fransisco 49ers (-6.5)

Favre is really disapointing, I mean, it's really bad to see him making these decisions. BUT!!! He does have a chance to redeem himself this week against this High school pass defence! Green is a weapon most QB's envy of Favre, and will have another amazing week!
Sure SF will score, but they won't win the game, not this week!
Green Bay Packers all the way!
The 6,5 spread is simply a bonus.

Bet on the Packers!!!

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) - Arizona Cardinals

If you actually wager on the Seahawks here, you gotta be pretty scared of this Cardinals offencive capability.
The Seahawks defence is the reason that they are not a superbowl contender.
Arizona of course has an obvious interest in the draft.
therefore....Avoid!

Buffalo Bills - New York Jets (-4.5)

I really hope the Bills go to this game without motive, cause they really can hurt the Jets here.....for with a win, the Jets become odds on favorites to make it to the playoffs based on the schedule that remains for all the teams in the hunt. Fear here is, that the Bills are capable of doing the damage against the Jets should they try 100%.
Avoid

Denver Broncos - San Diego Chargers (-7.5)

This game will probably seal my long term bet that the Chargers will win this division....a bet that was priced at 1,90 when i recomended it a few weeks back.
The difference between the teams are huge, but I'm not sure if the Chargers passion will be present in this one.
Its a luxury to lead a division like the Chargers do, a luxury that can afford avoiding key injuries for the upcoming playoffs.
That IS what the Chragers are looking at right now.
Avoid

New Orlean Saints - Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

I got so disapointed when I saw the 6,5 spread on this one.
I was hoping that they'd overestimate the Saint, so that I could take the Cowboys.
Of course the Cowboys will win this game.
But a win is a win, and with this spread, you gotta stay away.

Chicago Bears (-6.5) - St Louis Rams

If the Bears can avoid the Colts in the superbowl, they will easily be the favorite to win it.
If there's a team that can stop LT, its the Bears.
One of the luxuries the Bears do have though is balancing things out.
They can afford to avoid injuries without caring so much about the result of a particular football game.
So, until the playoffs...you must avoid any wager on them.

[W.HI.P]

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When judging a teams defence, you must add into consideration the kind of offence the team runs.
Example, a passing offence will make a teams defencive numbers look pretty bad, that does not mean that this particular defence is worse than a defence who is accompanied by a team with a great running offence.
This is the result of the limited time that goes by when running a passing game.
The great running offence takes a lot of time off, which results in lesser chances for the other teams offence to score, not to mention extra resting time for the defence of a running offence.

~~One must also consider the opponents that the particular team has faced in order to judge a team.

The best way to understand, is to watch, but also contemplate the politics of a franchise.
Injured, resting, and probably more importantly for the weaker teams, the upcoming draft!

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The Chicago Bears defence is by far the greatest in football, and its not just the numbers. Think Grossman all year, through good and bad.
Brian Urlacher will wear a superbowl ring!

The only team i can see beating the Bears when it counts, are the Indianapolis Colts. .......P.Manning, right now, is the greatest Quarter-back the game has ever seen, It's all happening right in front of our eyes.
But P.Manning and the Colts, may not reach the superbowl to play the Bears.
The San Diego Chargers hold a huge chunk of gold.
That gold, is LaDainian Tomlinson.
If it Ends up being a Colts vs Chargers A.F.C Final, I will not be wagering my money on Peyton, but on LaDainian.

That scenario would have The Bears Favorites over the Chargers, as the Bears can limit the best running back in the game.
Gates will be used, but i'm afraid the Chargers are weak in the recieving area to allow Rivers to excel to his greatest potential.

The Bengals could be considered candidates as well, as long as they can avoid the Chargers, as the Chargers would run them over easily.
If the Bengals meet the colts? their offence would have to have its greatest day of the year to upset what would be the heavy favorites Colts

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[W.HI.P]

.......Latest Results

Clevland Browns 7-27 Pitchberg Steelers(-7,5) ....Loss
Baltimore Ravens 20-10 Kansas City Chiefs(-2,5) ....WIN
Atlanta Falcons(-3,5) 17-6 Tampa Bay Bucs ....WIN
Tennessee Titans(-2,5) 26-20 Houston Oilers ....WIN
New York Giants 27-13 Carolina Panthers(-3,0) ....WIN
Indianapolis Colts(-2,5) 17-44 Jacksonville Jaguars ....Loss
Green Bay Packers 30-19 San Fransisco 49ers(-6,5) ....WIN

[W.HI.P]

Long term Bets

AFC West Division Winner

San Diego Chargers = 1,90 = ....WIN


....Still to come

English Premiership Champions

Chelsea = 1,90
...now 2,00

[W.HI.P]

N.F.L Pointspread
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San Francisco 49ers - Seattle Seahawks(-9,5)

There is no doubt that Seattle has the edge here.
But you cannot dissmiss the fight the San Fransisco 49ers will bring.
Gore's running ability, in combination with Seahawks defencive inability will do 2 things:
1) Kill the clock
2) Score some points.
The 9,5 points are huge here.

Bet on the 49ers!

Dallas Cowboys(-3,5) - Atlanta Falcons

Good matchup, the Cowboys should win.
You have to stay away from this one though.
3,5 points is a lot more tricky than you think.

Cleveland Browns - Baltimore Ravens(-12,5)

The Ravens aren't 12,5 point favorites here because they're that much better than the Browns.
The Spread is there because the Browns have thrown their arms in the air this year, they've given up!
Avoid


Detroit Lions - Green Bay Packers(-6,5)

The Spreads right on the money
Avoid

Houston Texans - New England Patriots(-12,5)

Looks about right, Patriots will win, although they're not a super team.
Next year? the Patriots will not take first place in this division.
This is their final year.

Jacksonville Jaguars(-3,5) - Tennessee Titans

You didn't buy that win over the Colts, did you?
Of course you didn't! Neither did the spread fixers!
As I say at the top of this post, it is most dificult to predict winners,
because this deep into the year, the ones who create the spreads are more aware!
I would definetly reccomend the Titans if the spread was 7,5, but it isn't, so...
Avoid!

Miami Dolphins - Buffalo Bills (-1,5)

Both these teams are really good.
I have no idea who will win.
Brown will be missed for the Dolphins, otherwise, I'd be tempted to reccomend them.
Avoid this one.

New York Jets - Minnesota Vikings(-3,0)

No no no no no, you don't understand!
The Jets should be the favorites here, cause they're gonna win it!
The Vikings defence stops the run.
The New York Jets throw the ball amazingly.
It is a miss-match.
Sure the Vikings will score, but the Jets will score more
The -3,0 points are simply a bonus

Bet on the Jets

Washington Redskins - New Orleans Saints(-10,5)

Free Money here, Saints might win it, but they won't run away with it.
If Portis was playing, the Redskins would win this easily.
This Saints team is full of holes, do not believe the Hype!
Low scoring game.
The Washington Redskins have just enough reason to play.
The 10,5 points is HUGE.

Bet on the Redskins

Denver Broncos(-3,0) - Arizona Cardinals

Arizona here will run into trouble with Champ Bailey.
An Offence like Arizona's becomes crippled when the #1 reciever is not a target.
If they throw in that direction, you'll be looking at a few interceptions.
Ok, so the Denver Broncos are not that great, but should be able to get a win here.
3,0 isn't much

Bet on the Broncos


Philadelphia Eagels - New York Giants(-5,5)

How exciting! My Eagels pulled off another win, and its great!
The team is great, I'm simply not over-optimistic,
as we are with a disadvantage without our Quarterback.
I will watch of course, and Cheer for my Eagels,
but I cannot put any money on my team, even with the 5,5 spread.
The Giants are a better team.
This one will be a low scoring game as both defences are solid.

Kansas City Chiefs - San Diego Chargers(-9,5)

The Chiefs might just run into a little luck this week.
It is a great question what kind of game the Chargers will be bringing.
Avoid the great teams like the Chargers until the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals - Indianapolis Colts(-3,0)

Wow! Super offencive battle, I really hope both teams come to play!
I cannot contemplate the final result of this one.
I can see the Bengals passion coming in here.
I do not buy that the Colts played with any amount of passion last weak.
Reality has these two teams superbowl contenders alongside the Chargers from the AFC.
The Bengals are more of a dark horse because of their obvious inabilty to stop the run.
I know this would be a fun game to wager on,
but there are too many questions regarding motives to judge correctly.

[W.HI.P]

As the year progresses, there are less predictable games.

But I'm not buying any of what they're selling.
The teams are what they are, the greatest teams in the game are resting on and off.
A few weeks back, they were trying to sell the Panthers as a superbowl contender.
Last week, they were trying to convince everyone about the Cowboys.
This week, they're brainwashing us about the Saints.
It's just not real!
The Bears have been the #1 NFC contenders all along, and remain so.
Don't believe the hype.
Candidates to meet the Bears in the NFC final are the Cowboys and the Giants.
Thats reality!

[Undertoad]

It's sad to see the Eagles full of holes. It's not just McNabb - the D line is shot without Kearse and has real trouble with the run, the receivers have bad hands, the "west coast offense" contains not much west coast and not much offense. I can't imagine how they are going to stop Tiki Barber.

[W.HI.P]

It is sad Undertoad, thats why I was kinda hoping that we'd lose last week, so the franchise can focus on realistic things as opposed to the playoffs.
Its only a matter of time till we're out, and if by a miracle we squeeze in, it will be exciting, but we will witness a playoff loss for the Eagels.

[glatt]

Hey, W.H.I.P., I just wanted to thank you for this thread. I'm not a betting type of person, but this thread is very interesting nevertheless. I especially like to see the results that you post after a weekend of games. I'm pretty impressed that you are able to pick these things so well. I always assumed that the "house" always knew everything and set the odds in such a way to guarantee their victory. I assumed that in such a rigged system, the only people who played were losers by definition. But you have intrigued me. I'm still not going to bet on anything, because I'm risk adverse, but I like this thread. Thanks.

[Clodfobble]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but technically betting on sports events is still illegal in most states, right? I honestly don't know.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Correct me if I'm wrong, but technically betting on sports events is still illegal in most states, right? I honestly don't know.

I am aware that it is illegal in some states, but I'm not quite sure which ones they are. I'm in Toronto where it is legal for sure.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by glatt

Hey, W.H.I.P., I just wanted to thank you for this thread. I'm not a betting type of person, but this thread is very interesting nevertheless. I especially like to see the results that you post after a weekend of games. I'm pretty impressed that you are able to pick these things so well. I always assumed that the "house" always knew everything and set the odds in such a way to guarantee their victory. I assumed that in such a rigged system, the only people who played were losers by definition. But you have intrigued me. I'm still not going to bet on anything, because I'm risk adverse, but I like this thread. Thanks.

Glatt, thank you so much for your kind words, it put a smile on my face.
You would think that the "House" would know eh?
Truth is, with the kinda speads they were giving out in the first week of the season, they had NO IDEA!!!! Week 2 was even better, they simply based everything on week one. Its been an amazing year, and its all based on their lack of knowledge.
The reason why it is much harder now to predict winners on the spreads is because their finally starting to get them right.
Betting succesfullly on spreads is basically finding the spread-fixers mistakes.

You are wise not to gamble, as it is a house game.
A patient gambler can make money when the oportunity presents itself.
The N.F.L is winding down to its end, after that, oportunities will become very rare for gamblers as the NFL is like no other sport.

Apart from predicting the winner of a game,
I've also been hinting under's and over's quite succesfully.

The only real wise bets after the NFL are long term ones as they are fixed on whatever false reality presents itself at that particular moment.

Glatt
Blessed Be

[WabUfvot5]

The spread is not there to indicate who the house is going to win. It's there to equally divide the bets 50/50 between the two teams. The closer to a 50/50 split the house gets the bigger the guarantee they aren't going to lose while maximizing profit. This line will sometimes move throughout the week to influence how many bets are on each team. Vegas has more football knowledge and stats than any of us could ever hope to; when the spread seems lopsided it is not because the odds makers are dumb, it's because they want the bets split. This gives good opportunity for some winning, as W.HI.P has shown.

I like to keep an eye towards divisional matchups. Except in cases of extremely good teams (like San Diego) the games are played closely. A large spread between two heated rivals of different talent levels is often closer than anticipated.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Jebediah

The spread is not there to indicate who the house is going to win. It's there to equally divide the bets 50/50 between the two teams. The closer to a 50/50 split the house gets the bigger the guarantee they aren't going to lose while maximizing profit. This line will sometimes move throughout the week to influence how many bets are on each team. Vegas has more football knowledge and stats than any of us could ever hope to; when the spread seems lopsided it is not because the odds makers are dumb, it's because they want the bets split. This gives good opportunity for some winning, as W.HI.P has shown.

I've been corresponding these past few weeks with two of the biggest betting agencies in the world regarding the NFL spreads.
Employment is the topic of discussion.
I am aware that the spreads are used more of a guidance tool than anything else.
So yes, they are not as stupid as they seem.
Although they weren't that bright early on in the season either!
A lot of guessing, and it cost them, there is no doubt about that!
If it hadn't, I would not be in correspondence at the moment(Certainly nothing to do with Vegas).
I suppose I could write(I'd need an editor,lol), but why work against them for next season when I can work for them!

I like to keep an eye towards divisional matchups. Except in cases of extremely good teams (like San Diego) the games are played closely. A large spread between two heated rivals of different talent levels is often closer than anticipated.

Absolutely!!
I was kind of expecting a larger spread on the Jaguars-Titans rivalry, but no gift there!

This theory works in other sports as well, not so much with divisional matchups, but local rivalries.
The percentages of a smaller team beating or drawing with a stronger neighbour is overwhelming in almost all sports.