Heatwave in SE Australia

[Sundae]

So sorry to hear all this.
Happy to hear no Cellar casualities - selfish when other people are suffering, but the way I feel.

Much luck to you all, may you and yours continue to be safe.

[Aliantha]

I watched this all on the news last night and couldn't help letting the tears fall down my face.

It's horrific. I just can't imagine dealing with that sort of tragedy.

[Shawnee123]

Wow...this is huge. I've been reading this thread, and seeing stuff on the news. It becomes even more of a human experience to me when I know people in the midst (not that I don't care otherwise, it's just easier to compartmentalize.)

I'm glad you Aussies are all well and safe.

[Aliantha]

Over 170 dead and the number is still rising with 30 fires still raging across Victoria.

I don't know what else to say about this. It really leaves me speachless.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Aliantha

Over 170 dead and the number is still rising with 30 fires still raging across Victoria.

Why so many dead so quickly? Major fires normally do not have these kind of death numbers. Are too many people staying to fight the fire? Is the fire moving too quickly for warnings? Are people ignoring the warnings? Are the roads that bad or difficult that people cannot get out fast enough? How fast are these fires moving? All questions not answered by press reports. Why are these fires so deadly compared to other equivalent fires?

[Shawnee123]

I was wondering, when Ducks said her parents were in a flying ember alert: what do you do? I'm not trying to be funny, I mean do you have to pretty much keep an eye on your house at all times, or try to wet it down? Seriously, that would be hard to sleep, or not be completely on edge all the time, if you don't know if an ember could land and catch your house on fire.

[TheMercenary]

deliberately set? WOW. That is not cool.

WHITTLESEA, Australia (AP) - Suspicions that some of Australia's worst wildfires ever were deliberately set led police to declare crime scenes in incinerated towns on Monday, and a clearly emotional prime minister likened the alleged arson to mass murder. The death toll stood at 131.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090209/D9681TKG0.html

[Trilby]

Wow. Saw some of the devestation on tonights news----wow, this is soooo not cool. It's so horrific...those poor people!

Have we heard from Ducks recently????? *worry*

[Aliantha]

Originally Posted by tw

Why so many dead so quickly? Major fires normally do not have these kind of death numbers. Are too many people staying to fight the fire? Is the fire moving too quickly for warnings? Are people ignoring the warnings? Are the roads that bad or difficult that people cannot get out fast enough? How fast are these fires moving? All questions not answered by press reports. Why are these fires so deadly compared to other equivalent fires?

Some people elected to stay and fight, thinking these fires were just normal speed bushfires, but they weren't. There has been normal rainfall for the couple of months up till Jan in those areas, and then nothing for a month, then the heatwave and strong winds simply consumed all the fuel that was just waiting there. It was like nothing anyone had seen before.

A lot of people have been killed in their cars trying to escape because there are so many fires, people just couldn't outrun them fast enough. In general the roads are pretty standard country roads. Nothing too terrible from what I've seen on reports.

[ZenGum]

Ducks and Kingswood have checked in, Alphajerk hasn't lately, but he's an occasional poster anyway.

TW, there are many factors and each case has different combinations of them. You've already listed most of the factors.

These fires have come at the end of a drought, everthing is tinder-dry. The record-breaking heatwave primed everything. Strong hot dry winds drove the fires like a bellows until the fires got big enough to create their own weather and become self-sustaining, creating even stronger winds and even lightning. The direct radiant heat becomes so intense that volatile chemicals are boiled out of pine and eucalyptus trees in advance of the fire front and the air itself can become explosive. Hell, the trees can explode. The fire front moves at varying speeds but uphill and down wind 60kph is not unknown. The upwinds throw burning embers several kilometers away from the main fire.The fires are so intense that survival is very unlikely - you need some kind of concrete bunker or similar. Even brick homes get blasted to the ground - bricks shatter with the sudden burst of heat.
The number and size of the fires (30+ fires, burning on hundreds of kilometers of fronts with a total area already in the 250,000+ hectare range) means that firefighting resources are stretched thin.

Human factors are also big. People have settled into hills and gullies with poor access roads, built homes amongst trees, and allowed trees to get too close to houses and drop leaves and twigs all over them. Many of these towns are heavily treed throughout (and so have no refuge within them) and have only two roads out, one each direction, which are easily cut.
Many people were not adequately prepared to fight - no independent water supply or pump, wrong clothing, no plan, not enough people, etc. Many whose plan was to leave did indeed not leave in time - it is not yet clear how much of that was through poor warnings, or complacency. Others planned to stay and fight and got overwhelmed by a fire much fiercer than they were prepared for. Worst is those who changed from staying to fleeing at the last minute. One fallen tree blocking a road leads to a four car pile up with no escape.
Some people may have not heeded warnings on the first day, but I'll bet they are now.

These are the main factors which appear in various combinations. A Royal Commission (major judicial investigation) has been announced which should answer your questions properly (and damn good questions they are) but it will take a long time.

In short, this was not a regular bushfire, but a firestorm, a huge intense fire, moving very fast through difficult country full of ill-prepared humans.

[Aliantha]

Originally Posted by Shawnee123

I was wondering, when Ducks said her parents were in a flying ember alert: what do you do? I'm not trying to be funny, I mean do you have to pretty much keep an eye on your house at all times, or try to wet it down? Seriously, that would be hard to sleep, or not be completely on edge all the time, if you don't know if an ember could land and catch your house on fire.

Yep, you basically put the hose on the roof and leave it there if there are embers in the air. You're also meant to make sure your gutters are empty of debris such as leaves and sticks and it's always a good idea to get rid of trees and large shrubs close to the house although it's not a rule, just a suggestion.

[Aliantha]

With regard to the fire laws in Victoria, they differ from those in NSW were you're not allowed to have large trees or shrubs growing close to a dwelling if you're in a fire danger area. There are calls now for some of these laws to be implimented in Vic and some are laying the blame on forrestry for not clearing more area around townships.

The problem is though, that many people like to live in a natural environment and are against clearing land to live on. These are the risks you take when you choose that lifestyle. It also puts others at risk when a disaster like this occurs.

I hope they catch the arsehole/s who lit these fires. If they're charged, under Victorian law, the sentance can be up to 25 years in prison per charge where a death is a direct result of the fire.

[Shawnee123]

Originally Posted by Aliantha

Yep, you basically put the hose on the roof and leave it there if there are embers in the air. You're also meant to make sure your gutters are empty of debris such as leaves and sticks and it's always a good idea to get rid of trees and large shrubs close to the house although it's not a rule, just a suggestion.

Yikes. I'd probably sit outside with a wet mop or something, and constantly be looking around.

[Aliantha]

Some people tried to defend their homes this way and only survived by jumping into their damn as the flames passed over.

There are so many stories.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

Human factors are also big. People have settled into hills and gullies with poor access roads, built homes amongst trees, and allowed trees to get too close to houses and drop leaves and twigs all over them.

Sounds like the idiots in Californication that built in the mountain hillsides only to have their homes burn up every year for failure to maintain an appropriate fire break. I wouldn't wish that on anyone but there is a certain amount of personal responsibility that has to be taken into account.