Would you? - Page 3

Undertoad · 03-25-2008, 10:47 AM

Also (double-posting here to avoid a big edit), the story points out that the new registrations last week leave the Ds with a 4% increase over the previous November.

Last week there were about 20,000 new registrants, and 30,000 people switching their registration for a total of 50,000 new Ds.

So 4% increase - maybe 5% with this week's additions - means over 4,000,000 Ds in the state. But the new Ds won't be 5% of the total number of voters.

In 2004, about 800,000 Ds voted in the Primary elections. If there are 100,000 new Ds after this week, that would be 12.5% of the total number of voters in 2004.

Well, in 2004 it was less important as a primary -- and of course, this is assuming that all these new registrants vote. Most of the switchers will; they are highly motivated. Some of the new registrants won't, though. But even if new Ds represent 5-10% of the total, that's still a massive number, in an election! So one possibility is:

The polls might be even less accurate than they usually are.

It's got to be a higher degree of difficulty for the pollsters.

warch · 03-25-2008, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Obama is an idealist, not a realist.

I've been impressed by how Obama sees how these false poles are dynamic and work together.
So I'll defer to your poli-sci dictionary. Maybe we need a new word.

Griff · 03-25-2008, 06:01 PM

I didn't do it.

I just hosted my GOP lovin' Pappy for dinner. Someone told him that some of the new Dems will be temps voting for Hillary in hopes of giving McCain a better shot. Was there any polling of new registers?

03-25-2008, 06:01 PM	#33
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	I didn't do it. I just hosted my GOP lovin' Pappy for dinner. Someone told him that some of the new Dems will be temps voting for Hillary in hopes of giving McCain a better shot. Was there any polling of new registers? __________________ If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you. - Louis D. Brandeis

03-25-2008, 10:47 AM	#31
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	Also (double-posting here to avoid a big edit), the story points out that the new registrations last week leave the Ds with a 4% increase over the previous November. Last week there were about 20,000 new registrants, and 30,000 people switching their registration for a total of 50,000 new Ds. So 4% increase - maybe 5% with this week's additions - means over 4,000,000 Ds in the state. But the new Ds won't be 5% of the total number of voters. In 2004, about 800,000 Ds voted in the Primary elections. If there are 100,000 new Ds after this week, that would be 12.5% of the total number of voters in 2004. Well, in 2004 it was less important as a primary -- and of course, this is assuming that all these new registrants vote. Most of the switchers will; they are highly motivated. Some of the new registrants won't, though. But even if new Ds represent 5-10% of the total, that's still a massive number, in an election! So one possibility is: The polls might be even less accurate than they usually are. It's got to be a higher degree of difficulty for the pollsters.

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