The Dallas Cowboys Update Thread - Page 21

Undertoad · 12-13-2011, 09:01 AM

You have now extended the conspiracy to all media and ex-players.

It's the paper trail, as Jim says. Not just paper, but people trail. Conspiracy theories are ridiculous according to how many people are involved in them. Because when enough people are involved, the truth will inevitably come out.

Watergate, for example, was known about by a handful of people - less than twenty, until the combination of paper trail and interested informant were located.

In this case, the billions of dollars involved means that enormous attention is paid to determining outcomes. For the consistent NFL fix you claim, over a thousand people are to not just know about it, but stake their reputations and professional futures against it. If just one wife of one fired coach speaks out, the entire thing crumbles and frankly the sport is over.

I DO believe that the lines are set according to expectations and not actual quality. That's not conspiracy, that's simply the game afoot. But is it the masses' expectations or the big money bettors? If the big money is aware of this practice it would surely disappear.

Undertoad · 12-13-2011, 09:07 AM

(part 2)

If you look at the regular season record against the spread you notice that it's incredibly close. Almost all teams are .500 against the spread or one game off it. Since you must win 55% of the time to make money, this is a terrible atmosphere for betting.

So what is special about the teams higher or lower than .500 against the spread. The teams you would have won money betting on this year are the Packers, Bengals, 49ers. One expected to win, one expected to lose, and one average. The teams you would have lost betting for are the Rams, Colts, Chargers. One expected to lose and two average.

What you notice above all else is that teams with a good record do well against the spread and teams with a poor record do poorly against the spread. This is exactly in line with expectations. We should think that the "expectations" wagers are now taken into account and people are betting underdogs against teams known to be good.

W.HI.P · 12-13-2011, 12:10 PM

Its a pretty simple thing UT, there are two possibilities in a Football game in regards to the bet.
There are a lot of games starting with 85%-95% lopsided bets.
When this is the case, they take the money, especially in the play-offs, and in Thursday or Sunday night games.
You may continue to believe that the lop-sided bets are lost due coincidence or not, it makes no difference to me.
If you followed the money as I do, you would find that it is too common that the 5%-15% wins to be a coincidence.
The house wins, fix or no fix.
What the media sells, never wins.
The masses buy, the masses lose.
Those are the facts.
Your details are unnecessary.

Undertoad · 12-13-2011, 01:50 PM

Post your playoff picks and let's see.

J.D.DIAMOND · 12-13-2011, 03:39 PM

W.HI.P what "IF" the Packers actually do win the Super Bowl....what would be your explanation then?

W.HI.P · 12-14-2011, 12:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.D.DIAMOND

W.HI.P what "IF" the Packers actually do win the Super Bowl....what would be your explanation then?

If I make a profit on my long term bets, i won't really care who wins the Superbowl.
Winning the Superbowl with one of my picks would be a dream world for me, but I don't really need that to happen the way that I bet.
In fact, I would make more money, if two of my teams make it to the AFC or NFC Finals, then if 1 of my teams simply won the superbowl.
Unless of course its the Houston Texans, where, as i said before, I made an error when wagering on them, and i bet too much.

The guys that run the show, haven't really been generous.
I highly doubt they plan on taking billions of dollars out of their own pockets and throwing it to the masses.

I'll play your game though, Should the Packers make the Superbowl, They could make a lot of money off the game itself, simply by the Packers winning under the spread, however that would still consist of them dishing out some serious cash on the long term bets already placed on the Packers by the masses.
So, yeah, it's highly unlikely that the Packers win the Superbowl, but if by some unexpected moment of generosity, they decide to pay up on the long term bets, well, they will certainly not be generous on the money wagered on them in the spread.
So, If it comes to pass that the Packers win the Superbowl, it will be under the spread.
So yeah, bet against the Packers.
There is no scenario where one would bet on the Packers beating a spread in a Superbowl game

W.HI.P · 12-13-2011, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Post your playoff picks and let's see.

My picks are made before every season starts when i make my bets.
I've already mentioned the teams i've bet on, and the teams I wish i had bet on.
Gambling isn't about winning, its about making money.... there is a huge huge difference between the two.
You see Winning 8 out of 10 single bets at odds of 1.24 will see you winning 8 times , but you will be in fact losing money.
Now Winning 1 out of 10 single bets at odds of 10.01, will see you losing 9 times, but you will in fact, make a profit.
So again, its not about winning, that is the most common mistake of a gambler.... it is however, about making money.
Take a listen to Jay-Z for advice, and put your money on the long shots, and forget about winning and cheering, this about the money.

jimhelm · 12-13-2011, 03:40 PM

he'll wait a year and then say he told us that all along.

W.HI.P · 12-13-2011, 11:47 PM

I'm going to go through my long term bets still pending, to show you where my money is, and how i bet on long term bets in the NFL.
You don't really need to win any Superbowl to make some serious cash.
If one of these teams lose in the AFC or NFC final, I'm gonna make some profit this season.
Now if one of them make it to the Superbowl and lose, well, that's a whole different category of money...that's some serious shit.
You don't need to win the Superbowl in this way of betting.
If you're smart, and you bet the way that I do, placing the majority of money on the most likely thing, in these following bets, the majority of money is placed on making the AFC or NFC final game.
A third of that is placed on Winning the AFC or NFC.
And one sixth of that on the Superbowl.
That's some serious cash down there!
Weekly bets of a few grand are mickey mouse in comparison.

AFC South Division winner : Houston Texans 3/1
NFC East Division Winner : Dallas Cowboys 4/1
AFC Finalist : Houston Texans 6.33/1
NFC Finalist : Atlanta Falcons 4/1
NFC Finalist : Dallas Cowboys 8/1
AFC Finalist : Oakland Raiders 23/1
AFC Winner : Houston Texans 17/1
NFC Winner : Atlanta Falcons 8/1
NFC Winner : Dallas Cowboys 16/1
AFC Winner : Oakland Raiders 46/1
Superbowl Winner : Houston Texans 29/1
Superbowl Winner : Atlanta Falcons 15/1
Superbowl Winner : Dallas Cowboys 26/1
Superbowl Winner : Oakland Raiders 92/1

kerosene · 12-14-2011, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W.HI.P

AFC South Division winner : Houston Texans 3/1
NFC East Division Winner : Dallas Cowboys 4/1
AFC Finalist : Houston Texans 6.33/1
NFC Finalist : Atlanta Falcons 4/1
NFC Finalist : Dallas Cowboys 8/1
AFC Finalist : Oakland Raiders 23/1
AFC Winner : Houston Texans 17/1
NFC Winner : Atlanta Falcons 8/1
NFC Winner : Dallas Cowboys 16/1
AFC Winner : Oakland Raiders 46/1
Superbowl Winner : Houston Texans 29/1
Superbowl Winner : Atlanta Falcons 15/1
Superbowl Winner : Dallas Cowboys 26/1
Superbowl Winner : Oakland Raiders 92/1

If Oakland wins the superbowl I am going to hurt someone.

monster · 12-14-2011, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kerosene

If Oakland wins the superbowl I am going to hurt someone.

can we pick who?

kerosene · 12-15-2011, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster

can we pick who?

Yes, but only amongst those who have posted in this thread.

W.HI.P · 12-15-2011, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kerosene

If Oakland wins the superbowl I am going to hurt someone.

Fear Darren McFadden

jimhelm · 12-14-2011, 02:49 PM

Already hedging.

This, I guess, is my intolerably irritating.

Noted that you omitted the amount you supposedly bet on those long term wagers, so it remains impossible for us to conclude whether you actually won money.

I am frankly skeptical that you actually placed any real bets.

W.HI.P · 12-15-2011, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimhelm

Noted that you omitted the amount you supposedly bet on those long term wagers,

No I didn't, I provided them quite specifically actually...... ^^^Read up^^^
(I will copy and paste at your request)

Quote:

so it remains impossible for us to conclude whether you actually won money.

How ignorant of you.
All the prices are there, and all the equations are there.
I wrote very specifically:
the majority of money is placed on making the AFC or NFC final game.
A third of that is placed on Winning the AFC or NFC.
And one sixth of that on the Superbowl.

Did you not make it through 4th grade?

12-13-2011, 12:10 PM	#3
W.HI.P Free Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Canada Posts: 1,513	Its a pretty simple thing UT, there are two possibilities in a Football game in regards to the bet. There are a lot of games starting with 85%-95% lopsided bets. When this is the case, they take the money, especially in the play-offs, and in Thursday or Sunday night games. You may continue to believe that the lop-sided bets are lost due coincidence or not, it makes no difference to me. If you followed the money as I do, you would find that it is too common that the 5%-15% wins to be a coincidence. The house wins, fix or no fix. What the media sells, never wins. The masses buy, the masses lose. Those are the facts. Your details are unnecessary. __________________ pls stfu k thx

12-13-2011, 03:40 PM	#8
jimhelm a beautiful fool Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 39.939705 Posts: 4,504	he'll wait a year and then say he told us that all along. __________________ There's a Shadow just behind me. Shrouding every step I take. Making every promise empty, pointing every finger at me. _tool

12-13-2011, 11:47 PM	#9
W.HI.P Free Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Canada Posts: 1,513	I'm going to go through my long term bets still pending, to show you where my money is, and how i bet on long term bets in the NFL. You don't really need to win any Superbowl to make some serious cash. If one of these teams lose in the AFC or NFC final, I'm gonna make some profit this season. Now if one of them make it to the Superbowl and lose, well, that's a whole different category of money...that's some serious shit. You don't need to win the Superbowl in this way of betting. If you're smart, and you bet the way that I do, placing the majority of money on the most likely thing, in these following bets, the majority of money is placed on making the AFC or NFC final game. A third of that is placed on Winning the AFC or NFC. And one sixth of that on the Superbowl. That's some serious cash down there! Weekly bets of a few grand are mickey mouse in comparison. AFC South Division winner : Houston Texans 3/1 NFC East Division Winner : Dallas Cowboys 4/1 AFC Finalist : Houston Texans 6.33/1 NFC Finalist : Atlanta Falcons 4/1 NFC Finalist : Dallas Cowboys 8/1 AFC Finalist : Oakland Raiders 23/1 AFC Winner : Houston Texans 17/1 NFC Winner : Atlanta Falcons 8/1 NFC Winner : Dallas Cowboys 16/1 AFC Winner : Oakland Raiders 46/1 Superbowl Winner : Houston Texans 29/1 Superbowl Winner : Atlanta Falcons 15/1 Superbowl Winner : Dallas Cowboys 26/1 Superbowl Winner : Oakland Raiders 92/1 __________________ pls stfu k thx

12-14-2011, 02:49 PM	#14
jimhelm a beautiful fool Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 39.939705 Posts: 4,504	Already hedging. This, I guess, is my intolerably irritating. Noted that you omitted the amount you supposedly bet on those long term wagers, so it remains impossible for us to conclude whether you actually won money. I am frankly skeptical that you actually placed any real bets. __________________ There's a Shadow just behind me. Shrouding every step I take. Making every promise empty, pointing every finger at me. _tool

12-13-2011, 09:01 AM	#1
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	You have now extended the conspiracy to all media and ex-players. It's the paper trail, as Jim says. Not just paper, but people trail. Conspiracy theories are ridiculous according to how many people are involved in them. Because when enough people are involved, the truth will inevitably come out. Watergate, for example, was known about by a handful of people - less than twenty, until the combination of paper trail and interested informant were located. In this case, the billions of dollars involved means that enormous attention is paid to determining outcomes. For the consistent NFL fix you claim, over a thousand people are to not just know about it, but stake their reputations and professional futures against it. If just one wife of one fired coach speaks out, the entire thing crumbles and frankly the sport is over. I DO believe that the lines are set according to expectations and not actual quality. That's not conspiracy, that's simply the game afoot. But is it the masses' expectations or the big money bettors? If the big money is aware of this practice it would surely disappear.

12-13-2011, 09:07 AM	#2
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	(part 2) If you look at the regular season record against the spread you notice that it's incredibly close. Almost all teams are .500 against the spread or one game off it. Since you must win 55% of the time to make money, this is a terrible atmosphere for betting. So what is special about the teams higher or lower than .500 against the spread. The teams you would have won money betting on this year are the Packers, Bengals, 49ers. One expected to win, one expected to lose, and one average. The teams you would have lost betting for are the Rams, Colts, Chargers. One expected to lose and two average. What you notice above all else is that teams with a good record do well against the spread and teams with a poor record do poorly against the spread. This is exactly in line with expectations. We should think that the "expectations" wagers are now taken into account and people are betting underdogs against teams known to be good.

12-13-2011, 01:50 PM	#4
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	Post your playoff picks and let's see.

12-13-2011, 03:39 PM	#5
J.D.DIAMOND Compatriot-at-Arms Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Seattle Washington,U.S.A. Posts: 106	W.HI.P what "IF" the Packers actually do win the Super Bowl....what would be your explanation then?

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)