The Crash of the American Economy

[Undertoad]

You're right glatt, and also, there must be tons of gifts being shipped twice - first to the buyer, then again, wrapped as a present to the giftee.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by marichiko

Well, here's my own very small economic indicator. I sell flowers on every major holiday.

Another litmus test, although a strange one: One of the media outlets mentioned some years ago that the purchase of pets were a very good economic indicator of consumer confidence. In the mid 90s, major cities saw an explosion of "dog bakeries". These niche shops baked cookies, pastries, and cakes that were exclusively for man's best friend. Once the downtown hit, nearly all of them evaporated.

These days, they're starting to return. And when people start buying 16oz of filtered water in a disposable bowl for their dog, I suppose the outlook must be pretty damn good.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Thanks, Kitsune. That's wonderful.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Oh, and one more economic indicator that's fun to track. Jacquelita's brother is a UPS driver. They were utterly swamped over this Christmas season, way above and beyond previous Christmasses.

I asked for numbers from some UPSes drivers. For example, one noted he makes about 175 stops per day. During a previous Christmas, his highest stops was 371. Two weeks before Christmas, he was already doing over 400 stops every day.

Meanwhile, traditional stores were seeing poor sales after an initial Thanksgiving week boom. However sales in the last week started to recover. I still don't see any final numbers from the traditional 'brick and mortar' stores yet. But numbers from both UPS and Fed Ex AND numbers from some UPS drivers suggest Internet sales were quite successful this year. Amazon.com is rumored to have done quite well.

This was a surprise to many economists who are worried about how 'tapped out' consumers are. It suggests consumer debt load, that has been unusually high, will even be higher. Previously posted is how credit card companies are now mining for higher profits. Get you in on real low interest rates. Then suddenly jack those rates up from 8% to 20 or 30%. Credit card companies are also said to be doing quite well with so many leaving unpaid debt every month on those cards.

The amount of government and consumer debt is worrying economists.

[wolf]

Originally Posted by marichiko

yet I'd say my sales were down by a third over previous years. And I had my dog out there with me.

You obviously didn't look pitiful enough.

[Undertoad]

I just found this, had to add it to the thread for Kitsune: Beer for Dogs.

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

I just found this, had to add it to the thread for Kitsune: Beer for Dogs.

This is just... I can't even describe it. Beer for Dogs goes on my list of "stupidest products ever".

Of course, you can't give him the same beer you grab from the fridge when YOU want a treat! Alcohol, hops and carbonation are bad for dogs.

But, of course your dog's breath smells of fetid meat and canine butthole! Don't let that fool you though! Your pet really wants <a href="http://www.k9treat.com/cart/catalog/product_77_Holiday_Sampler_Platter.html">$15 decorated cakes and cookies</a>.

[Undertoad]

Bloomberg news sez:

Holiday sales on the Internet increased 30% over last year as people shopped online for computers and electronic devices such as the iPod.

Sales from Oct. 29 to Dec. 23 rose to $30.1 billion, according to a survey conducted by research firm Nielsen NetRatings, Goldman, Sachs and Harris Interactive. Shoppers were drawn by increased free shipping offers from retailers including Amazon.com and L.L. Bean.

Amazon.com, the world's biggest online retailer, said Dec. 26 holiday sales worldwide set a record this year, spurred by demand for iPods, video games and jewelry.

30% in one year is simply incredible.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Since walmart has killed off so many brick & mortar stores the internet offers better options for finding quality stuff.

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Iran can ask for dogshit in return for its oil. Or it can ask for the "Euro", a currency backed by the same thing as the dollar but where the voters just rejected the notion of forming a Constitution around this notion of "Europe". In the end, there will need to be an economy behind what they trade for, or they will be poorer.

This was six years ago. In the end, Iran did create an oil bourse that specifically would not trade in the Dollar. But instead of the decline of the Dollar, voila: the Euro is on its last legs, and people are now buying Dollars and Pounds wondering whether the Euro will survive. The Iranian oil bourse didn't do shit for it.

[TheMercenary]

And considering how economically Iran has become in the world, the pressure has really begun to squeeze them. This is probably some of the most pressure they have felt in that measure since the Revolution in the 70's. Now what happens if the world markets dump the dollar for something else? Like the Chinese yuan?

[Undertoad]

I expect the markets would follow wherever the largest stable marketplace is. 10-20 years from now it may be the Yuan. But right now the single-party Chinese government controls the value of the Yuan, which would make it a bad idea.

[TheMercenary]

Sorry, should have said "economically isolated"...

If the Euro collapses do you think they will flock to the Dollar given the state of our own shaky economic situation and impotence of our current government?

[TheMercenary]

Europe debt crisis: Risks grow as borrowing rates for Italy, other nations rise.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...tml?tid=pm_pop

[Undertoad]

For sure. Yesterday Italy had a disastrous sale of its bonds and people started buying up Dollars and Pounds and Brazilian Real. The Euro is off the Dollar for the last seven weeks in a row and lost 2.1% against it last week.

It's been lower in the past, so this is not a terribly big deal in itself. But Christmas time is now here, and we will see if people are interested in buying things again...